The regular poll from Opinium for the Observer came out this weekend. Topline figures are CON 43%(+3), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 6%(-1). Fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday and changes are since last month. This is the largest Conservative lead Opinium have shown since the election, following the trend we’ve seen from other pollsters of a modest improvement in the government’s position in the polls.

The rest of the survey had a numnber of questions on Brexit. More of the public disapprove (44%) than approve (32%) of Theresa May’s handling of Brexit, but it’s less negative than their perception of how Jeremy Corbyn has handled it (19% approve, 48% disapprove) and they would trust the Conservatives more than Labour to handle Brexit negotiations by 33% to 20% (though a chunky 32% say either none or don’t know).

In a forced choice question between the staying in the single market and ending free movement of Labour, 40% would prefer the single market, 34% would prefer ending free movement, 26% don’t know. As you’d expect, this break is overwhelmingly down Remain/Leave lines – by 70% to 8%, remainers would prefer to stay in the single market; by 60% to 14% leavers would prefer to limit freedom of movement. A more interesting question asks what people think the position of the political parties is, underlying that a large proportion of the public don’t know what the parties stand for – 38% don’t know if the Conservatives prefer the single market or ending freedom of movement, 44% don’t know what Labour think, 48% don’t know what the Lib Dems think (and some that do get it wrong – 21% of people think the Conservative’s favour staying in the single market.

On a second referendum, 37% of people said there should be a second referendum on whether to accept the terms agreed or remain in the EU after all, 49% think there should not (as regular readers will know, this is one of those questions that produce quite varied responses depending on how the question is worded – other polling questions show a narrower split, probably because this question is quite explict about the referendum containing the option of staying in the EU after all, resulting in overwhelming opposition from Leavers).

Full tables are here.


344 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 43, LAB 39, LDEM 6”

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  1. The Cons remain rebels will be happy with the ipso facto 3 year transition so the only possible way for the WA to be voted down is for the ERG or DUP to vote with Labour and the rest of the opposition.

    Won’t happen and May kicks the decision on A CU v trade deals down the road possibly for another leader. her resignation once the WA has been through the necessary steps in the UK and EU next spring would not be a surprise to me.

    Small matter of DUP deal #2 to construct at some point by this time next year (ish) as well.

  2. Laszlo, didn’t those doing the defenestration come to a sticky end, or at least end up with a Catholic Bohemia?

  3. @Trevor W

    ” – May might not be leader in a snap GE. My second preference for how we get out of this mess is she delivers a Downing Street speech similar to the one from about a year ago. The one proviso there is she pins the whole austerity baggage on Hammond and kicks him out bringing in a new CoE who pre-spends the Brexit dividend.”

    ——

    Yes, obviously I was dealing with the scenario in which she still was leader, and if she called the election she still would be.

    Of course the point was she might threaten to call a snap election to ward off a leadership challenge or other attacks by Hardline Leavers. As opposed to the election actually happening.

    There are of course numerous alternatives in the mooted multiverse, like your second preference.

    I don’t want to give you nightmares but there is possibly a parallel universe out there in which Ed Miliband leads the Tories. And another in which Labour let the members decide the leader and let Tories join for three quid and wound up with that backbencher Corbyn in charge!

    Finally I should point out that having a different leader to May does not guarantee a superb campaign. Cameron caused quite some dismay after failing to win outright in 2010 against a Labour Party on the floor after the Crunch AND with Brown at the helm.

    Cameron’s EU Referendum campaign was not exactly a winner either.

  4. @RJW: Yes, the defenestration of Prague was a disaster for Bohemia, and for much of the rest of Europe.

    ——————

    On Gibraltar, that is not going to be lost. The Gibraltarians would sooner no deal than any compromises with Spain. When Blair threatened to destroy their economy if they didn’t do a deal with Spain, they simply refused. Being under British sovereignty is of overriding importance.

  5. @BZ

    “Neatly put.”

    ———-

    Thank you. Not sure Trevor liked the idea, but it’s early days.

  6. @BZ @ TREVOR WARNE @ BZ

    “Nobody knows how the votes will proceed.”

    Trivially true but hardly a response to the question: “show the HoC maths”.

    In the absence of a change of Labour policy to back this amendment it isn’t there. Not even close.

    Even in the more independent minded Lords, only a minority of Labour Lords voted against the whip.

    In the Commons, even if the Con rebels could get up towards two dozen, and even if the DUP could be flipped, you’d need 5 in 6 of Labour MPs to rebel. That’s not just the Blairite awkward squad. It’s all the backbenchers and a chunk of the front bench too. It’s in the realms of fantasy.

    That fact that we don’t know for certain what will happen doesn’t mean that we can’t make reasoned judgments about what is likely. TW has the Commons maths on his side.

  7. RJW

    Well, identity politics brings collateral damages.

    You see the Hussites were not particularly pleased with the rites of the Catholic Church two hundred years earlier (it’s particularly interesting on the day of Pentecost).Many of them were massacred. There were also moderate Hussites (just wanting some wine on Sundays) who survived and got pretty rich, but there were the radical ones who took the Bible seriously.

    Now, all these were happening in the most developed part of Europe – Czechia – but it really didn’t bother the then forces of the European Union. They were out for power. However, they needed some pretext – so they chose religion (I suppose the equivalent of multiculturalism in modern terms, versus I don’t like THEM).

    The cover didn’t last long – ideologies have a tendency of shredding, like bad cloths. But the struggle of power, as usual, destroyed the basis of power – the Czech economy was destroyed, a third of Germany was devastated, and those fringe pretenders died before doing anything. Oh, and it recreated (albeit not as a sole factor) serfdom in Eastern Europe with rather long lasting effects.

    Now, the most Catholic king of France (and his eminence) chose to choose the Protestants against the Catholics in warfare because, as Macron (obviously) was for the European Union with single currency (ok, I’m exaggerating it a bit, but we are at time of the birth of mercantilism). This then gave the British 200 years of foreign policy to fight the European Union, engage in entrepreneurship rather than trading (hence the large trade deficit now, so the trade deficit should be praised).

    Unfortunately other historic factors, among them 1973, obstructed Britain to take full advantage of the 30-year war.

    Pffff…

  8. I should add in the context of another GE that clearly the Tories are taking campaigning into a new and disturbing realm, descending to depths hitherto unseen.

    It said in the Times that the Tories we’re going to start offering members discount cards for Nando’s. (One wonders as to Labour’s response, but it probably involves smashed avocado).

  9. BZ,

    It isn’t clear if the UK will remain a member of the EEA during transition. According to my reading, article 124(1) of the WA you mention binds the UK to the responsibilities of the EU side of the agreement with the EEA but does not make the UK a member of the EEA itself. You have to read the EEA treaty to decide if the UK continues as a member and that just isn’t clear. The government says not and currently intend to assume not, but then they are as likely to be wrong as right.

    I agree with Trevor, the numbers are not there in the Commons for a commitment to EEA membership at present. So it can only happen if May does a U-turn (or Corbyn changes his mind).

  10. @BZ @SAM

    “Article 127 of the EEA Agreement requires 12 months notice of withdrawal”

    Article 127 can’t get you out of Article 126.

    “The Agreement shall apply to the territories to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community is applied and under the conditions laid down in that Treaty, and to the territories of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein and the Kingdom of Norway.”

    When the UK is no longer a territory to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community is applied, the agreement ceases to apply. Whether or not it gives notice. Whatever it or other countries might like to agree to the contrary.

    There are plenty of treaty provisions in issue where aspects of interpretation are open to credible argument and doubt (Article 50 TEU very much being one of them). This aspect of the EEA really isn’t though. It’s such a straw clutch that it hasn’t even been the subject of a frivolous court case.

  11. @Hal: “It isn’t clear if the UK will remain a member of the EEA during transition. According to my reading, article 124(1) of the WA you mention binds the UK to the responsibilities of the EU side of the agreement with the EEA but does not make the UK a member of the EEA itself. You have to read the EEA treaty to decide if the UK continues as a member and that just isn’t clear.”

    The EEA treaty tries to preserve the niceties of international relations, and avoid giving the EU state power over the EEA states. It includes consultation mechanisms.

    The EU – reversing their usual mantra – did not want this off the shelf solution. They wanted a bespoke solution where the EU’s state powers were preserved in the UK, and then gloated about how little consultation there was going to be.

    Of course, it will all end with a deep and profound partnership. Suddenly the EU will stop demonstrating its supremacy in the negotiations, and loo to create something respectful and friendly. At least that is Theresa May’s theory.

  12. BZ

    Even apart from my finding politico/legal issues rather fascinating (especially when they address issues that politicians would rather weren’t raised at all). the substantive hearing on the petition by the “Scottish Seven” (now plus the “English Two”) re A50 unilateral revocability was scheduled to take place tomorrow.

    Unless the date has been changed, tomorrow may have some interesting developments (or not!)

  13. Peter W

    “When the UK is no longer a territory to which the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community is applied, the agreement ceases to apply.”

    On the whole, I agree with your interpretation. However, in any legal argument, the technicalities matter.

    For example if, during the transition period, the Treaties largely apply, has the UK actually become a territory in which the Treaties don’t apply?

  14. CARFREW

    It said in the Times that the Tories we’re going to start offering members discount cards for Nando’s. (One wonders as to Labour’s response, but it probably involves smashed avocado)

    Fake chicken I’m afraid:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/tories-nandos-discount-card-new-members

    Apparently the Tories felt that all they had to do was ask a large multinational organisation to give them whatever they wanted and they would get it straight away and become immensely popular.

    They had trouble with Nandos as well.

  15. PETERW

    If there must be a customs border, there is a tendency for Remain supporters to favour an East-West to a North-South one. My suspicion is that the main reason for this is that it causes most problems for the government’s Brexit strategy.But in case that appears petty or calculating, an ability to pretend there is an economic case for it too might be handy.

    It’s probably simpler than that. It’s a lot easier to have a customs border that effectively comprises a handful of ports and airports (which have security anyway), than one which is 500 miles of winding land border with hundreds of potential crossing points. It looks like common sense to choose the simpler option. Remainers probably make the same assumption about where trade goes as well – even if it turns out to be incorrect. Though even Fullfact can’t seem to get to the bottom of the figures:

    https://fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/

    as evidenced by both the UK and Ireland claiming to have a trade surplus with the other. And of course Leavers saying that NI-UK trade was bigger may equally have been that on their own view of the importance of the UK rather than any in-depth knowledge of international commerce.

    To some extent that sums up the whole Brexit debate. Remainers tend to care more about practicalities and how things work, whereas for Leavers it’s more about how they feel and the symbolism of things.

  16. @Roger M

    Obviously that’s a relief, though it seems they’re still holding out hope for some other businesses to join the scheme. This could be quite the slippery slope, as if Tories offered a discount on synths that might force an abandonment of cherished neutrality. And if Labour then offered a discount on hifi, it might be hard to choose between them.

    And if Libdems offered a storage discount one might run away screaming as you know that probably means a u-turn and whacking up storage costs when in power.

  17. Carfrew: “It said in the Times that the Tories we’re going to start offering members discount cards for Nando’s.”

    I don’t feel like Nando’s really fits the profile of Tory members. Surely something like discounted National Trust membership would be far more lucrative.

  18. Polltroll,

    “Surely something like discounted National Trust membership would be far more lucrative.”

    Is that as Members or Historical Monuments????

    Peter.

  19. [email protected]@SAM

    Anent leaving the EEA

    I believe Art 126 implicitly takes the UK out of the EU.

    Art 127 is not time bound.Leaving by giving notice does not have to coincide with leaving the EU – unless both Arts 126 and 127 provide a means of exit.

    I believe that parliament must decide that we leave.

    A court might have to decide if Art 126 takes the UK out of the EU.

    We have been round this house before .

    For now I think it is irrelevant and may remain that way. I’m going to lie down.

  20. From Slugger O’toole there is this:

    “Four party leaders representing 49 MLAs have penned a joint statement on Brexit.

    On 23rd June 2016 citizens voted to remain within the European Union.

    Despite this, the British Government intend to exit the EU in March 2019.

    Sinn Féin, Green Party, Alliance and the Social Democratic and Labour Party all share the common position that we should stay within both the single market and customs union and that there should be no hard border on the island of Ireland or between the two islands.”

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/05/22/four-parties-issue-a-joint-statement-on-brexit/

  21. @Polltroll

    The National Trust do awful things like agree with the scientific consensus on global warming and bovine TB and thus, to the Tory Right, are evil and quite possibly treasonous.

    Not really suitable.

  22. “Four party leaders representing 49 MLAs have penned a joint statement on Brexit.”

    All the ones not in power you mean.

    There is no sovereign power who intends to tax their population, employ people, and construct the infrastructure that constitutes a ‘hard border’. The UK has said no, RoI has said no, and the EU has said no.

    There is no power on earth that can force that to happen. So there won’t be one.

    The UK will leave the Customs Union and the Single Market, and things will be patched up at the ports with a heavy application of the finest fudge.

    The solution will be the blind eye turned.

  23. Neil,

    The flaw in your argument is that a hard border is the default option and will happen if there is no agreement. It is optimistic in the extreme to suggest that a legally-required border will be ignored in practice.

    There isn’t going to be a withdrawal agreement that leads to a hard border, that’s for sure. But that does mean it can’t happen.

  24. … But that does not mean it can’t happen.

  25. @Polltroll

    “I don’t feel like Nando’s really fits the profile of Tory members. Surely something like discounted National Trust membership would be far more lucrative.”

    Or possibly a membership to your local County Cricket club? Anticipating my retirement this summer, my wife and two sons clubbed together and bought me a membership for Worcestershire as a Christmas present. I attended the recent four-day game against Essex and, as a 62 year old, felt surprisingly young again as I surveyed my fellow spectators amongst the sparse crowd. I’d have put the average age of the crowd as 70 plus. Lots of Daily Telegraph readers, I noticed!

    Whilst it was all OK for an old fossil like me, it was slightly disturbing too for someone who cares about the game. Distant memories of my childhood days in the 60s came back to me as I recalled playing little games of cricket, with hundreds of other youngsters, on the outfield during break times. The Essex game straddled a weekend, so no schools were operating, yet I hardly saw anyone of school age on the ground. The outfield was largely deserted during the breaks and it occurred to me that cricket had become a game largely ignored now by the younger generation. Certainly the old four day version, which I love. I can’t abide the T20 nonsense. Ghastly game. Maybe that’s where the youngsters are, I don’t know.

    When my generation, and older, slip off this mortal coil, who will be watching and playing the old, proper game, I wonder?

    Very sad.

  26. @Crossbat11

    As a working person four games are but a dream.

    I agree on T20. It’s a fun knockabout, but doesn’t build the skill to play test cricket. Test cricket requires patience the ability to slowly build an innings.

    I despair about the 100 ball format being touted. Is 100 balls for those who don’t have the ability to understand, or the time for 120 ball?

    The cricket timetable is too congested as it is. They just seem to want to appeal football fans.

  27. @Polltroll

    “I don’t feel like Nando’s really fits the profile of Tory members. Surely something like discounted National Trust membership would be far more lucrative.”

    ———

    Well quite, they are trying to reach out beyond the typical profile, to the young people. Via stuff they think young people won’t be able to resist, Like Nando’s.

    Maybe if in reply Labour started offering free supplies of V1agra to the oldies…

    The thing is, that the oldies are being offered rather attractive policies, like triple lock, inflated house prices, fuel allowance, whereas the young get inflated tuition fees, house prices increasingly out of reach, pension age extended, zero hours etc. etc.

    Whether discounted Nando’s is enough to compensate for all that is some5ing else.

  28. @Catmanjeff

    “As a working person four games are but a dream.”

    Yes, during my 41 years of working, the long journey coming to an end this very Friday, the longer form of cricket was largely inaccessible, and weekends were used up playing the game. Accordingly, I could only attend the odd game during holidays, and then parenthood put a stop to that. Accordingly, it’s not surprising that most of those attending four day matches, certainly on weekdays, are retirees. That said, I attended the Essex game on a Saturday and Sunday so, in theory, there was no reason why there wasn’t a much younger audience there. The fact that there wasn’t I found both surprising and worrying.

    “The cricket timetable is too congested as it is. They just seem to want to appeal football fans.”

    The schedule is impenetrable and ridiculous, I agree, but I’m not sure about it being so in order to attract football fans. I’ve never quite got this conflict and competition between the two games, to be honest. They are both our national sports, one winter the other summer, and I’ve spent all my life, following, playing and loving both. I’m not alone in that and there’s no reason why the two old games can’t co-exist without feeling the need to compromise their own distinctive values or pander to each other. My youngest son, now 26, was a chip off the old block. Played and watched both games, and still does. No conflict, no compromise no clashes; loves both games to bits. When the seasons overlaps, he cracks on with both. Ironically, as I sat amongst the crowd for the recent Essex game, there were multiple conversations going on amongst spectators about the end of the football season. Obvious lovers of both games, like me, everywhere in the crowd. Cricket shouldn’t be in awe of football’s popularity. Football is no threat to cricket and cricket must solve it’s own problems.

    Just like his old Dad and many, many others too.

  29. @Catman

    “I despair about the 100 ball format being touted. Is 100 balls for those who don’t have the ability to understand, or the time for 120 ball?”

    ——-

    Are they trying to make it fit easier into an evening for people who want to go after work?

    Whereas they should be making it last longer, to extract the maximum patience, endurance and ability to craft an innings, and to keep bowling when all hope seems lost. Personally I don’t know that they should ever have gotten rid of timeless tests.

  30. @neil wilson

    ‘ ‘“Four party leaders representing 49 MLAs have penned a joint statement on Brexit.”
    All the ones not in power you mean.”

    Not really, as no party is “in power” in Northern Ireland at the moment and, if there were a NI Executive in place, then clearly Sinn Fein would be “in power”.

    It is true, however, that those parties represent a majority of MLAs.

  31. “..bringing in a new CoE who pre-spends the Brexit dividend”.

    Brexitland becomes more like Lalaland every day.

  32. I have noticed a trend with GE results over time, and have come to a theory, and if it is true. It is not possible for the Tories to win the next election unless something very dramatic happens.

    I’ve noticed when either Labour or the Tories form a government they can improve their result on future elections. For example, Thatcher in 1983, and Wilson in 1966 and Oct 1974, but once they start losing support they never regain it. For example, the Tories under Thatcher and Major had a majority of 140, 100 and 21 then lost . Labour had a majority of 179, 169, 66 and then lost.

    Most people pay little attention to the short term hains and losses of the polls. It seems when a government has done something to disgruntle a voter, they will keep voting against it regardless and rarely change their minds.

  33. @Catman

    Also, in a civilised society, people should be able to go watch four days games even if still in work. There should be like a cricket allowance, like maternity leave, but for cricket, so you can go and watch some four days games each year.

    Or at least it should be mandatory that people can go and work on a laptop or tablet while watching a game. What use is having all this mobile tech if can’t go watch the cricket?

  34. “The flaw in your argument is that a hard border is the default option and will happen if there is no agreement. ”

    It can’t happen unless somebody does it. Who is going to do it? Who is going to tax their population, engage somebody and build infrastructure? I need names and cheque books.

    There isn’t anybody is there. So it won’t happen.

    There is no ‘legally required’ anything because there is no mechanism by which anything can be enforced (even the EU accept the GFA is unenforceable internationally due to the UK exemptions at the International Court of Justice).

    Therefore it will be fudged and quietly ignored.

  35. “It is true, however, that those parties represent a majority of MLAs.”

    It may do. But it has as much impact as the members of my local town council saying the same thing.

    Any individual in the UK can say things over which they have absolutely no power or influence in the hope somebody listens. But they can do nothing else with it.

    What happens with the UK border is a UK competency. And Irish nationalists are a very tiny minority in UK terms.

  36. A UK competency subject to WTO rules.

  37. crosbat11

    Re footy, cricket and the young: when I was young we played football anywhere we could with whatever ball someone happened to have. It really was the Paul Whitehouse “jumpers for goalposts event.

    Now, on my walks with the girls, I see fabulous football pitches – with posts at each end!! – and the only evidence of young people is the litter and discarded beer cans and bottles strewn everywhere.

    That is what I call sad.

    My idea for cricket is the 66 ball system: each player has one over against one opposing player whilst the other twenty watch [to boost the crowd a bit].

    It could be fitted in =to an extended lunchtime

  38. @HIRETON
    “Not really, as no party is “in power” in Northern Ireland at the moment ”

    Which is of course a current breach of express obligations under the GFA not merely a prospective breach of implied ones.

  39. Britain Elects
    ?

    @britainelects
    22m
    22 minutes ago

    More
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-1)
    LAB: 38% (-)
    LDEM: 9% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    UKIP: 2% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 20 – 21 May

  40. Question vaguely related to polling.

    I notice that Mark Carney has said we are worse off by £900 due to Brexit.

    Also that the NI poll asked questions around if you were £3,500 better or worse off, how would that affect your decision.

    I wondered why they landed on £3,500? And is that the sort of question which can be loaded. Would people respond differently to £200 a month or £70 a week?

    Is there a magic number when people think “That is a sum of money I would change my vote for”?

  41. @Neil Wilson

    Ah, the supremacist British argument: anything other than Westminster is the equivalent of a local council. Thst worked out so well in Ireland for so long.

    Also good to see you arguing British exceptionalism to ignore its international trading obligations.

  42. That’s 3 YGs in a row with virtually no change. The figures are roughly in line with the average of all recent polls.

  43. @Peterw

    “Which is of course a current breach of express obligations under the GFA not merely a prospective breach of implied ones.”

    No, it isn’t.

  44. @ CARFREW / BZ – I’m quite happy to wait and see as the clock is now favouring a clean Brexit.

    I see no harm in discussing options of how this turns out although Ed Miliband leading CON and RAF being called in to do food drops for Cornwall both gave me a good chuckle! I guess almost anything is possible but I’d prefer to discuss plausible – with the analysis to support different outcomes.

    As PETER points out, few voters probably want another GE (Boris also occasionally says something sensible). The issue is if a GE is forced due to stalemate in HoC or CON being forced into a BINO Brexit they do not want to deliver. The issue then is who the ‘blame’ is pinned on. Of course May will be largely to blame but it should be obvious Leave are lining up Barnier, Varadkar, HoL for the ‘blame’. The final person to get lined up is Corbyn – we need him to either be ‘outed’ as Leaver or boxed into BINO. Only then can we get on with it.

  45. Average of YouGov polls in each month so far this year.

    Con Lab LD
    Jan 41.0 41.7 7.3
    Feb 41.0 41.4 7.4
    March 42.0 39.8 7.4
    April 42.0 39.3 8.0
    May 42.5 38.0 8.5

    slow but consistent trends

  46. Formatting disappeared on submitting but the slow steady rise of Con and LD is mirrored by a more substantial fall for Lab.

  47. @ PETERW – It is certainly strange that the collapse of Stormont devolved govt and return to direct rule didn’t reignite the IRA but that Arch-Remain are convinced that a few cameras on the existing border will!?!?

    Not only that but in anticipation of a potential return to criminal or even terrorist activity we should pre-emptively capitulate to criminals/terrorists and let a few Irish Republicans, whose elected representatives don’t even take up their seats in HoC, dictate the terms of Brexit for the whole of the UK!

  48. I think the Mark Carney statement about Brexit being largely responsible for us all being £900 a year worse off and the economy being 2% smaller is interesting.

    It was @TOH I think who used a recent projection by Carney to support his idea that Brexit was not having a bad impact on the economy, and so presumably it would be fair to take Carney at face value for this statement as well.

    What I find particularly interesting is that, once again, this gives substantial support to the BoE pre referendum economic forecasts. Given that we have seen a 2% fall in GDP compared to the 2016 forecasts already, we are still a year from Brexit, and there were a number of emergency measures designed to avoid undue impacts inn the immediate post referendum period, it does beging to look very like the BoE’s minimum forecast of a 3.6% relative drop in GDP has been exceeded.

    I think it may well be time to stop saying that all the Brexit forecasts were completely wrong.

  49. “I see no harm in discussing options of how this turns out although Ed Miliband leading CON and RAF being called in to do food drops for Cornwall both gave me a good chuckle! I guess almost anything is possible but I’d prefer to discuss plausible – with the analysis to support different outcomes.”

    ———

    Well there’s a universe out there Trev in which Miliband leading Tories is all too plausible! (Corbyn leading Labour would probably break the laws of physics though).

    I quite like your analysis of “blame vectors”, there’s mileage in that, as Amber Rudd recently discovered.

  50. @Trevor W

    Soz, post immediately above about blame vectors etc. should be addressed to you of course!

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