Boundary changes that add Penistone might make it possible, but unlikely I agree.

“I’ve never studied or worked there myself but know people who do and their Political Science department has a very left-wing reputation, as does their Economics department.”

That reputation is not at all accurate as regards the economics department (either staff or students). LSE has always had a strong contingent of right wing economics professors including some who were instrumental in developing/applying monetarist policies in the 70s and 80s. There has also long been a strong contingent of “third way” centrists in the department some of whom became very influential during the early Blair period….again, hardly left wing.

The student body is probably right of the national average overall, more so in the economics department than government or law. As Max says, a very large number of students are international though so many can’t vote.

I imagine the third way economists were of the social liberal stance which is what makes uni’s seem more left wing than are. I have tory voting friends on my law course but they were all just as pro remain and anti Syria Bombing as my Corbyn supporting friends.

I’m a bit surprised about the LSE to be honest, and I did know about Imperial-high concentration of science students tends to do that to a university. I find that in general scientists are more right wing-then again I’m an English student who chairs the York Uni UKIP so there are exceptions to every rule of the thumb.
Hemmelig-there are some Tories who are far more right wing than I am, I mean that there are high concentrations of socialists, and actually people who are considered by socialists and an-coms to go too far (particularly in UCL and Goldsmiths) .

I’m not disagreeing with you about UCL and Goldsmiths, nor the ex-polys, my point was just that there are other London institutions which do not conform to the left wing stereotype. Pretty sure Roehampton is another.

“I’m a bit surprised about the LSE to be honest”

Why? LSE has educated much of the global financial elite. It’s hardly likely to be full of raving lefties purely on the basis that Mick Jagger studied there 50 years ago.

I’m not so sure she does appear to be a pretty strong Corbyn loyalist. She might just stay in the cabinet and vote against Article 50, I doubt there will be any repercussions. Corbyn can hardly afford to sack her!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-39171841

Vulnerability out of 10?

I’m a York resident and Maskell is fairly prominent locally. Central pretty strongly remain as well. There will be some Lab-LD switchers but can’t see that many.

Would need to be a really good night for the Tories. Their candidate is likely to be Chris Steward – known for leading the local Council until quite recently but also for saying that there is no poverty in the UK and that people shouldn’t donate to food banks.

I could see Labour’s majority here being reduce to a very small margin.

UKIP did not do particularly well here in 2015 and there does not appear to be enough of their vote for the Conservatives to squeeze.

This one might have a small enough swing to buck the trend.

I’d be very surprised if this one fell. There’s a strong Green vote for Labour to squeeze.

I thought this was common knowledge but the Greens aren’t standing here, they’ve pulled out and are endorsing Maskell. Given the nature of the Green vote in a seat like this I think its fair to assume most of that 10% will go Labs way making a Tory gain here extremely unlikely.

I’d expect something like this for this seat

Lab 46
Con 36
LD 18

Tories are hitting this quite hard probably because they have no other targets nearby. It’s unwinnable.
Incidentally it will be strong Labour results in seats like this which will be responsible for Labours vote holding around 28-30%.

Or alternatively, a 6% Lab+Grn decrease. When put that way it seems pretty plausible, if anything a little harsh on Labour.

Holgate Ward By-election, 15.02.18:

Lab 1,521
LD 982
Cons 334
Green 203

Lab hold.