Ynys Mon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7393 (21.2%)
Labour: 10871 (31.1%)
Lib Dem: 751 (2.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 10642 (30.5%)
UKIP: 5121 (14.7%)
Others: 148 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 229 (0.7%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: Wales, Gwynedd. The whole of the Anglesey council area.

Main population centres: Holyhead, Llangefni, Llannerch-y-medd, Menai Bridge, Amlwch, Beaumaris.

Profile: The seat is made up of the large island of Anglesey off the coast of north Wales and the smaller Holy Island. Apart from the industrial Holyhead it is large rural and agricultural and is largely Welsh speaking. The largest towns are Holyhead, a ferry port on Holy Island that serves as a major transport link to Ireland and Llangefni, the commercial and administrative centre of the island. The seat also includes RAF Valley and the Wylfa nuclear power station, planned to cease energy production between 2012 and 2014.

Politics: Ynys Mons (or Anglesey, as the seat was called prior to 1983) has been varied in its politics - it is one of very few seats that have been won by four different parties since the Second World War. Pre-war the seat had been a Liberal stronghold and was held by Megan Lloyd George, as the Liberals declined it fell to Labour in 1951. In 1979 it was won by the Conservative Keith Best, whose career was cut short after being jailed for making fraudulent share applications in 1987. Best was suceeded by Ieuan Wyn Jones of Plaid Cymru in 1987 but the seat was lost to Labour in 2001 after Wyn Jones stood down to concentrate on his Welsh Assembly role..

Current MP
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. First elected as MP for Ynys Mon in 2001.
Past Results
Con: 7744 (22%)
Lab: 11490 (33%)
LDem: 2592 (8%)
PC: 9029 (26%)
Oth: 3589 (10%)
MAJ: 2461 (7%)
Con: 3915 (11%)
Lab: 12278 (35%)
LDem: 2418 (7%)
PC: 11036 (31%)
Oth: 5815 (16%)
MAJ: 1242 (4%)
Con: 7653 (22%)
Lab: 11906 (35%)
LDem: 2772 (8%)
PC: 11106 (33%)
Oth: 581 (2%)
MAJ: 800 (2%)
Con: 8569 (21%)
Lab: 13275 (33%)
LDem: 1537 (4%)
PC: 15756 (39%)
Oth: 793 (2%)
MAJ: 2481 (6%)

2015 Candidates
MICHELLE WILLIS (Conservative) Educated at Woodhouse Grove School and Royal Free Hospital. Company director# and former nurse.
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) See above.
MARK ROSENTHAL (Liberal Democrat) Former consultant and civil engineer.
NATHAN GILL (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014.
JOHN ROWLANDS (Plaid) Communications officer and former BBC radio producer.
LIZ SCREEN (Socialist Labour Party) Contested Wales region 2009, 2014 European election.
Comments - 229 Responses on “Ynys Mon”
  1. Rural Wales has some interesting seats. Has Ashcroft polled any seats in which Plaid are a serious factor? The Wales-wide polls suggest Plaid aren’t gaining much ground, with any gains from LD being offset by losses to Lab/Grn/UKIP. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if they are able to do rather better in a seat like this.

    A post-debate poll for Wales would be useful too.

  2. It would indeed, Wellytab. Unfortunately, the only upcoming Wales-specific poll that I am aware of is the next ITV political barometer poll which is coming out the night before the election.

    Nor have Ashcroft’s polls touched on any of Plaid’s target seats. Understandably, he has focused on Lab-Con marginals in Wales – places like Cardiff North and Carmarthen West.

    Interestingly, Plaid are faring much better in electionforecast.co.uk’s analysis than they have in the (very few) Welsh polls of 2015 – 17% versus 12% in the latest Wales-wide poll. In the absence of more evidence, it’s very hard to say who is right.

  3. New yougov poll, with a seat specific question gives Ynys Mon to Plaid Cymru, according to Roger Scully.

  4. *With a ratio swing, UNS would keep this seat red.

  5. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/i5pzkkverr/PlaidCymruResults_150430_VI_W.pdf

    Noticed this when I woke up this morning, All the changes are pretty small but the CVI intention is quite interesting with Plaid going up to 15%.

  6. Nice to be wrong!

    Pretty encouraging for Plaid.

  7. hhhhmmm been watching this thread closely for a while now. ironically I agree with dalek. Would expect this to be a labour hold but the assembly byelection must give PC some hope.

    And yet all I have seen is PC ramping and ramping and ramping on this thread. with not a lot of evidence to support said ramping. On Thursday one of two things will happen. Either I will owe a mea culpa or the PC rampers will be epically wrong. Suspect the latter.

  8. 200 vote margin – tantalizingly close for Plaid.

    I don’t really understand it – even in the 2013 by-election (with a far lower turnout of 42%) Plaid polled 12,600.

    If they’d only held on to that (which should have been easily possible on the higher GE turnout of 70%) they’d have firmly beaten Albert Owen’s 10,871.

  9. Different candidates

    Different election

    The By election was for a Welsh Assembly seat.

  10. I’m told that Albert Owen only held on because he is a great local MP….and good luck and congratulations to him…any Labour MP who hung on, due to their hard work and subsequent popularity deserves the greatest of respect.

  11. I wonder if this could turn out to be a close 4-way fight in 2020 – although UKIP may be perceived too far back and therefore be too squeezed to join the party . . . unless they are riding very high at the time.

  12. According to dicussion on the Derby North thread, somebody wanting to change their name before standing for election here would not be allowed to take the surname Llanfair­pwllgwyngyll­gogery­chwyrn­drobwll­llan­tysilio­gogo­goch as it is more than fifty characters long. Just in case you wanted to know!

  13. I see from Wikipedia that the boundaries of this seat have not been changed since 1885, when the borough seat of Beaumaris was abolished.

    Is it possible that the boundaries of this seat wil be changed before 2020? I don’t believe that the boundaries of this seat are fixed as a special case, like Isle of Wight, Western Isles or Orkney and Shetland, although there are people who think they should be.

  14. Anthony does not yet appear to have put up threads for the Northern Ireland seats, so can I point out here that the SDLP’s share of the vote in Belfast South at 24.5% appears from Wikipedia to be an all-time low for the share of the vote for the wiining candidate in a UK election. The British record appears to be 26% for Russell Johnson, LibDem, in Inverness in 1992.

    I thinkk that in the recent General Election the winning share of the vote here was the lowest in England, Scotland and Wales.

  15. I think Southport was slightly lower (31.0% to 31.1%)

  16. It’s also one of the lowest in terms of number of votes, beaten by only Western Isles and Orkney and Shetlands as far as I’m award. It’s quite likely all these seats will remain intact, so come 2020 this may be the lowest in terms of number of votes due to Conservative increasing strength in Wales at the expense of Labour.

  17. I disagree. I think this could well trend towards Plaid with the right candidate (Plaid were pretty dim to select a candidate from Cardiff, when it’s pretty common knowledge that these constituents favour a local from the island). Ukip doesn’t have the organisation to win seats in Wales at the moment in my opinion + I expected them to do better here with their high riding in the polls and the fact that Nathan Gill is building a relatively decent profile in Wales + he lives in Llangefni. But i do think the conservatives could do well here. Very much depends on the candidate in Anglesey.

  18. “Ukip doesn’t have the organisation to win seats in Wales at the moment…”

    I assume you mean constituency seats, Penyfro. The polling suggests it’s pretty certain they’ll win list seats in the assembly next year.

  19. I wonder which Welsh regions UKIP’s list seats are most likely to be in?

    Also, what is the chance they’ll sneak a list seat somewhere in the Scottish parliament? They did win an MEP in Scotland after all.

  20. Outpolled the tories in Glasgow in the euros. Perhaps a drop of potential there.

    Welsh AMs likely, NI MLAs not impossible, London ams maybe, MSPs perhaps the hardest

  21. Sorry, yes I meant constituency seats. A definite regional seat in north wales and s.e wales. Least likely in mid and Wes wales, depends on the numbers. I’d say between 3-7 seats..(2 north, 2 s.e, 1 swc, 1 sww, 1 mww)

  22. Without exaggerating my parties’ chances , we expect to win at least 1 AM regional list seat in every region. I expect to get a maximum of 8 regional list seats. Depending on what happens to other parties , there is a chance we could get 2 in SWC.
    In terms of NI , I think we’ll get 3 , or that should be our target. London I think 2 , and in Scotland we’ll be lucky to hold a deposit let alone win an MSP seat.

  23. Ukip NI had potential for 3 until a few weeks ago, but as ever they decided to have a public falling out.

  24. Yes i agree Ukip will win a seat in every region, but with the relative strength of the libdems in mid+West wales that region could be the most ‘challenging’. I’m quite curious as to how well Plaid will do in SWC, name recognition goes a long way in politics (and since Leanne is the most recognisable politician in the Assembly by now) i wonder if it will boost their vote in the area at all, or enough to deny ukip a second seat.

  25. In belated response to Frederic Stansfield’s post of August 22nd, this island has no special provision about boundary changes so it will have to be linked with part of the mainland to produce the required electorate.

  26. personally I think Orkney & Shetland and na h-Eileanan an Iar should have special provisions as isolated island constituencies and be left alone.

    If there were to be no special provisions though I think that rather than including them with mainland seats I’d merge the two into a single “Islands” constituency, maybe adding Skye and some of the other islands as well to get a reasonably-sized electorate

  27. Special provisions are a pretty silly affront to democracy. Plenty of Scottish islands are joined to the mainland. I’d be inclined to leave the special case for devolved institutions whilst trying to equalise for Westminster seats.

  28. Further to discussions about UKIP’s potential in the devolved institutions, they today pretty much committed suicide in NI

  29. I wonder if UK polling report will have a section on WAG/other devolved institutions specifically? It might help make things clearer. As to the comment that UKIP committed suicide by kicking a single member out of the party, I don’t think so somehow. UKIP is doing most of their WAG selections over the course of the next couple of weeks for constituencies. It’s not close enough to the Assembly elections really to tell how many they’ll win, but I don’t think anyone can doubt that UKIP will have significant representation in the WAG.

  30. “As to the comment that UKIP committed suicide by kicking a single member out of the party, I don’t think so somehow.”

    Interesting party line, and it sounds almost reasonable when phrased like that. However when UKIP decided to have a very public falling out, sack their effective founding member in a provence, throw away a chance of a gain in a 3rd of their targets and publicly tear themselves apart the comment holds up…and all because they couldn’t agree which hotel Nigel was going to speak at.

  31. It wasn’t due to that , the man had a very dodgy interview in which he expressed questionable views (even for NI) , that was more likely the reason that he got kicked out. But we don’t really know the reason , no-one in NI UKIP has said anything, nor has membership been told , we just know he’s gone. I still don’t think we’re dead yet , but we’ll find out won’t we?

  32. “he man had a very dodgy interview in which he expressed questionable views ”

    I’d have thought that was a prerequisite for being a UKIP representative.
    It’s must be admitted that kicking out the man who set up UKIPNI, was the Euro candidate, targeting a winnable assembly seat and has one of the biggest council votes in the provence is a pretty bizarre strategy.

    “no-one in NI UKIP has said anything, nor has membership been told , we just know he’s gone”

    What a mysterious, draconian top down organisation it must be.

  33. Cameron must feel the luckiest man alive.

    His main opponents both left and right have, for no particular reason, decided to self destruct.

  34. As things stand, Plaid Cymru look lke favourites to win this seat in 2020.

  35. Well, maybe, but north and west Wales doesn’t always follow the usual electoral logic. You’d have thought, having won in 1997 (and 2001 in Ceredigion) that they’d have won Ynys Mon and Ceredigion this time round given LAB and LD’s general performances, but they didn’t.

  36. A few of these will be significantly altered if the boundary review gets completed before the next election (which it will be barring a snap election)-Ynys Mon will probably become Ynys Mon & Bangor as unlike other significant islands in Britain it was not given protected constituency status.

  37. Isn’t the Isle of Wight being cut up as well?

  38. Polltroll
    It is which makes the situation with Anglesey seem rather unfair in comparison.

    Isle of Wight is too big so gets two undersized constituencies rather than being paired with part of the mainland (cos islands are a special case) but undersized Anglesey gets paired with part of the mainland (cos islands are not a special case) odd logic but that’s just me.

    I imagine the main reason Lab are tolerating it is because pairing this seat with studenty and primarily Lab voting Bangor makes what’s currently a vulnerable seat into something that’s reasonably secure.

  39. I suppose the argument would be that Ynys Mon is more connected to the mainland than the self contained communities of Orkney and Shetland or Na h-Eileanan an Iar, and more arguably the Isle of Wight, and so does not require the special treatment of those seats.

    If boundaries didn’t change I wouldn’t necessarily count on a Plaid gain. Outlying seats can often vote in ways unrelated to the national picture and Ynys Mon has a a history of just that. It is clear that both Albert Owen and the Plaid AM Rhun an Iorwerth have very strong personal votes.

  40. This seat must be very unusual in having been represented by four different parties since 1945 – Liberals to 1951, Labour 1951 to ’79 and 2001-, Conservatives 1979 to ’87 and Plaid ’87 to 2001.

    Are there any others that have that distinction? Off the top of my head Caithness (in its various guises) is the only other one I can think of (they’ve actually had five if you count the SDP separately).

  41. Kirkcaldy (and all its predecessor seats) fits that bill. Liberal to Labour to Tory to Communist back to Labour and now SNP.

    Bradford West is another 5 party seat if you count the SDP. Liberal to Tory to Labour (then multiple switching between Lab and Tory) to SDP back to Lab to Respect and now Lab again.

  42. Oh wait just realised you said since 1945 that rules out both my contributions then.

  43. Since 1945 another seat would be Glasgow North and its previous incarnations which also has been represented by five parties.

    Tory till the 1982 by election then SDP till 1987 when it fell to Lab where it remained till 2004 when the incumbent Galloway became a Respect MP then back to Lab in 05 then to SNP in 2015.

  44. Are there any genuine cases (not counting the SDP and Liberals/Lib Dems separately, or people who change affiliation after an election) in England? Probably not, I’d suggest.

  45. In England I suppose you could say Clacton (Or Harwich as it was once known) but it is cheating a bit.
    Currently UKIP, previously Tory, before that Lab, then Tory again all the way back to the 50’s when it represented by the National Liberals who were admittedly basically Tories.

  46. True but Labour would never have won Clacton in its current form though.

  47. Probably not no, notionally Lab would have just gained it in 01 on the increased majority they enjoyed that election but that was almost certainly first time incumbency from gaining the seat in 97 so yeah probably would have remained just out of reach for them.

  48. Clacton’s the best answer, the Nat Libs were still a bit separate from the Tories in 1945.

    Bradford West might be next closest, Respect, Labour and Conservative (plus a defection to the SDP). It was created in 1955, just under half was previously in Bradford North, which was Conservative in 1950 and 1951.

  49. I wouldn’t count East Fife/North East Fife. It has only had three parties unless you count the National Liberals or Unionists separately from the Conservatives, or the Liberals separately from the Lib Dems. Similarly Clacton falls short if you don’t count the Nat Libs separately (in 1945 they were more separate but there was no Tory candidate in Harwich). I also wouldn’t count Bradford West as it only went SDP through a defection, was never held by them at an election

    So the genuine four-party seats we have are:

    Ynys Mon
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross/ Caithness and Sutherland
    Glasgow North/ Glasgow Maryhill/ Glasgow Hillhead

  50. ‘So the genuine four-party seats we have are:
    Ynys Mon
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross/ Caithness and Sutherland
    Glasgow North/ Glasgow Maryhill/ Glasgow Hillhead’

    You’ve missed out Caernarvon Maxim

    It won by the Liberals in a by-election in 1945, the Tories then took it at the general election later that year, who then lost it to Labour in 1950 who held it until Feb 1974 when it was won by the Welsh Nationalists

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