Ynys Mon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7393 (21.2%)
Labour: 10871 (31.1%)
Lib Dem: 751 (2.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 10642 (30.5%)
UKIP: 5121 (14.7%)
Others: 148 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 229 (0.7%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: Wales, Gwynedd. The whole of the Anglesey council area.

Main population centres: Holyhead, Llangefni, Llannerch-y-medd, Menai Bridge, Amlwch, Beaumaris.

Profile: The seat is made up of the large island of Anglesey off the coast of north Wales and the smaller Holy Island. Apart from the industrial Holyhead it is large rural and agricultural and is largely Welsh speaking. The largest towns are Holyhead, a ferry port on Holy Island that serves as a major transport link to Ireland and Llangefni, the commercial and administrative centre of the island. The seat also includes RAF Valley and the Wylfa nuclear power station, planned to cease energy production between 2012 and 2014.

Politics: Ynys Mons (or Anglesey, as the seat was called prior to 1983) has been varied in its politics - it is one of very few seats that have been won by four different parties since the Second World War. Pre-war the seat had been a Liberal stronghold and was held by Megan Lloyd George, as the Liberals declined it fell to Labour in 1951. In 1979 it was won by the Conservative Keith Best, whose career was cut short after being jailed for making fraudulent share applications in 1987. Best was suceeded by Ieuan Wyn Jones of Plaid Cymru in 1987 but the seat was lost to Labour in 2001 after Wyn Jones stood down to concentrate on his Welsh Assembly role..


Current MP
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. First elected as MP for Ynys Mon in 2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7744 (22%)
Lab: 11490 (33%)
LDem: 2592 (8%)
PC: 9029 (26%)
Oth: 3589 (10%)
MAJ: 2461 (7%)
2005
Con: 3915 (11%)
Lab: 12278 (35%)
LDem: 2418 (7%)
PC: 11036 (31%)
Oth: 5815 (16%)
MAJ: 1242 (4%)
2001
Con: 7653 (22%)
Lab: 11906 (35%)
LDem: 2772 (8%)
PC: 11106 (33%)
Oth: 581 (2%)
MAJ: 800 (2%)
1997
Con: 8569 (21%)
Lab: 13275 (33%)
LDem: 1537 (4%)
PC: 15756 (39%)
Oth: 793 (2%)
MAJ: 2481 (6%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MICHELLE WILLIS (Conservative) Educated at Woodhouse Grove School and Royal Free Hospital. Company director# and former nurse.
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) See above.
MARK ROSENTHAL (Liberal Democrat) Former consultant and civil engineer.
NATHAN GILL (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014.
JOHN ROWLANDS (Plaid) Communications officer and former BBC radio producer.
LIZ SCREEN (Socialist Labour Party) Contested Wales region 2009, 2014 European election.
Links
Comments - 228 Responses on “Ynys Mon”
  1. Monmouth looks like a tory hold to me. I agree with Paul on Brecon.

  2. And I agree with you on Monmouth – travelling around there in April/May I saw lots of posters in farmers fields that would normally be “Vote Tory” instead saying “Vote UKIP” but I have no doubt that come the GE they will revert to “Vote Tory”.

  3. Montgomery even*

  4. Joe

    I see you meant Montgomery – sorry I can’t comment on that seat one way or the other!

  5. so I don’t know much about PC to be honest. Welsh nationalists I understand but could a rise in UKIP hurt them? What’s their political stance? Is their support dropping or rising? Which major party do they really take votes from in Wales?

  6. Albert Owen is a strong incumbent here, and Plaid Cymru generally chooses poor candidates here on the Westminster level.

    Generally speaking, you’d expect Labour to hold this one. However this is one of those seats where UKIP could affect the result. They’re more likely to take votes from Labour than Plaid Cymru, it just depends how many they manage to take.

    It might also be worth noting that UKIP outperformed the Conservaties here in the Council elections and Assembly by-election in 2013, and in the Euros in 2014. They may well do that again in 2015.

  7. Plaid 35
    Lab 33
    Con 15
    UKIP 6
    Lib Dem 5
    Green 4

  8. Is that your prediction Dalek? If so why so?

  9. Very strong Plaid performance in the Yns Mons Welsh Assembly by election suggests that Plaid could also defeat a Labour incumbent at Westminster… albeit by a tiny margin.

  10. I think that at the last GE I had a small bet on Albert Owen holding on here. Plaid have something of flattering to deceive here, so I would be inclined to stick with a Labour hold, (unless the sitting member’s announced his retirement and I missed it)

  11. ‘Very strong Plaid performance in the Yns Mons Welsh Assembly by election suggests that Plaid could also defeat a Labour incumbent at Westminster… albeit by a tiny margin’

    These North West Wales seats do produce some contradictory results between Westmiunister elections and those for the Welsh Assembly

    In 2007 Plaid won Aberconwy for the first time ever in the Assembly, and yet came 4th in the poll for Westminster three years later

  12. “Is that your prediction Dalek? If so why so?”

    Er, because he’s determined to ramp up the idea that Labour won’t be the next government, despite all the evidence to the contrary?

  13. Yeh i know HH and he isnt the only one!

  14. Ynys Mon only had 160 labour members in 2010 and of those only 117 bothered to vote in the leadership election – that’s a small amount for a seat they hold. Could be a problem when trying to campaign and could explain why they’ve done so badly in the recent council election and the assembly by-election…plaid seems to be much more active on the ground here.

  15. Plaid had 420 members at the end of 2012

  16. The fact that Plaid will be included in some of the leadership debates will thus mean the party will receive greater publicity, it could help boost their chances in a seats like Ynys Mon and Ceredigion.

  17. I think that Plaid will gain this seat (despite their poor candidate IMO). Labour’s poor performance in the local elections and in the Assembly by-election shows that they aren’t in good form on the island, also i think that ukip will take plenty of votes from labour in their strongest areas such as holyhead.

  18. From what I understand Plaid Cymru are confident of taking Môn, lot of Labour supporters turning to UKIP. However, they I don’t know how much you can rac into that as they expected to win here in the past three general elections also and failed (quite miserably in 2010)

  19. logically it’s unlikely that plaid could make it. but this seat isn’t always 100% logical.

  20. Labour hold in this sat as Albert Owen has a large personal vote & with Plaid making no substantial inroads nationally it is unlikely they will win. Incidentally I went to school with the Plaid candidate he is from the Cardiff area and is not from Ynys Mon and so has less of a local connection than the current incumbent. Labour Hold

  21. A lot depends on whether the Conservative vote gets squeezed with a tactical switch to Plaid…a 3.5% swing is not that much and I’m not sure in a seat such as this then the incumbent party can be 100% confident of victory when only polling 33% last time. One only has to look at the 2001 and 2005 GE polls, which suggest that Plaid can poll over 30%

  22. Richard Johns family are from Mon and moved to cardiff when he was a child. Neil a key factor is not so much a tory squeeze as what happens to the peter rogers vote many of who would otherwide have been plaid or tory welsh speakers who might be tempted to plaid for tactical reasons

  23. TO CLOSE TO CALL
    Straw poll I carried out on 2-April-15 puts LAB and PC NECK and NECK
    LAB——-32%
    PC———32%
    CON——-15%
    UKIP——-15%
    LD———3%
    OTHERS—3%

  24. What was your location when you asked 100 people your questions?

    How many replies were in a language other than English?

  25. 36 people answered straw phone poll, all English language, areas contacted were, Holyhead and Amlwch, a further 12 people would not take part in straw poll.

  26. Arglwydd ein helpu

  27. Couldn’t have put it better myself.

  28. Paul Way, You are wasting your money if you are unable to speak Welsh. You will not get accurate answers.

  29. bydd y canlyniadau yn profi i mi yn iawn

  30. Anghredadwy.

  31. Based on recent elections where Labour gained the seat then increased their majority twice I would expect a Labour hold but the massive PC majority in the Welsh Assembly by election must give PC some hope.

  32. Thanks DALEK
    That is exactly what my poll is showing, Neck and Neck.

  33. Not sure Dalek is agreeing with your methodology, he is simply.looking at election results, which leads him to.the same conclusion as the rest of us.

  34. Admittedly, this one is too close to call – but PC should be mindful if they truly believe they can ride to victory on the back of a strong showing at the AM by-election. That was nearly 2 years ago – much has changed and Albert Owen has a strong reputation on the Island.

  35. Labour hold. 1,000 majority.

  36. a lot will depend on what happens to the peter rogers vote. anecdotal evidence only but its belived that a good chunck of his vote would other wise be plaid rather than tory

  37. I also think Peter Rogers’ vote will probably split fairly even between PC and the Tories (lots of farmers voted for him … Not sure that they’ll go over to UKIP seeing as the farming community this way is very much pro-EU) – one place his vote definitely won’t go is to Labour.

    It’s only 2,000ish votes, but considering that the Labour majority was only that last time Plaid Cymru may well be automatically within pouncing distance here. Also, anecdotally, I’ve heard that a LOT of Labour voters in the Holyhead area are turning to UKIP. That would almost certainly lose this seat for Labour.

  38. JASPER MORONNEN – What is the basis for your assumption that the P Rogers’ vote will split evenly between PC and Tories???

    Rogers was a Tory candidate, who doesn’t speak Welsh and does not see eye-to-eye with PC (including his fellow PC councillor for the ward of Bro Aberffraw).

    Those English speaking farmers are just as likely to vote Albert Owen following his strong showing at the NFU / FUW hustings last week as they are for PC or Tory.

    I would also be interested to know what specifics you’ve heard about Holyhead – unless you’re being informed by Jonathan Edwards.

  39. Very low Key election on Ynys Mon.At the moment I believe Election is not as close.l.However,I think Albert will win comfortably as John Rowlands is nowhere near as impressive as the Excellent Rhun Ap Iorwerth.Also I think UKIP Vote will fall dramatically in next 2 weeks

  40. Robert,

    Rogers wasn’t a Tory candidate, he was an independent who used to be a member of the Conservative party a long time ago (although,yes, he did stand for the Tories here but that was in 2003). It’s actually fairly common knowledge that a lot of his support came from the farming community (which is overwhelmingly Welsh speaking) and that most of his support came from the centre of the island. The farming community is the constituency tends to vote either PC or Tory’ probably moreso Tory.

    Also, I can’t ever remember a time that Labour did well amongst farmers, anywhere in the UK, ever!

    I can’t tell you from exactly where I’ve heard that UKIP is apparently doing well in Holyhead but it’s a fairly reliable source. Although it does seem that the UKIP vote isn’t holding up as well in the polls at the minute….

  41. http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/anti-eu-labour-voters-who-switch-9083900
    Looks like Ukip are taking a lot of votes in Holyhead (labour’s strongest area in the constituency) + i think plaid’s campaign on the island has Rhun quite involved which will be of benefit to them. But could this turn into another Ceredigion, where unionist voters seemed to have corralled around a ‘nice’ inoffensive candidate.

  42. Rogers WAS an Assembly member on the Conservative regional list once upon a time.

  43. How many seats are we predicting for Plaid this election? I’m thinking 2 is most likely..

  44. I very much doubt Plaid will loose a seat and think if anything they may gain 1 or 2. Ynys Mon and Ceredigion being the two likely candidates albeit they both would be very close and Plaid would be doing very well to win by a small margin. But I really don’t see them loosing any seats.

  45. Jasper. If we are talking about the same “Peter Rogers” then I think you will find that he actually was an ELECTED Conservative List AM for North Wales in the First Welsh Assembly (1999)

  46. Dai, we are talking of the same one – I’m aware he was a Tory candidate and you’re right that he was a regional AM. I was referring to the last few times he stood rather than the fact that he stood for the Tories over a decade ago – sorry, I see that wasn’t clear from my post.

  47. Plaid Cymru win

  48. Jasper

    Odd how these rumours get started. I’ve also heard that Plaid are losing votes to UKIP – as they are no longer viewed as a protest vote.

    If I could see break down of statistics for Holyhead I think I would be inclined to agree with you.

    Is there a chance some farmers might end up voting Labour??? Perhaps. There are two prominent members of the FUW on the front of the Labour leaflets. I was amazed when I saw that – thinking (as most do) that farmers won’t support Labour.

  49. I was amused by Huw Edwards’ BBC report here yesterday. His intro said its between Labour and Plaid and the first three people he asked all said they were voting UKIP! They were all young lads in their 20s from an amateur football team. One complained about immigration and another said he’d registered for the first time so he could vote UKIP.

  50. “One complained about immigration” …Duw Duw!

    What immigration – unless they meant English only speakers (??), which is obviously not the case as they want to vote for Farage’s party!

    Im an incomer from England originally, but “immigrants” in the UK nationalist sense— are very few around those parts.

    When the media comes from outside of Wales, is anyone surprised by these negative sentiments against others?

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