Ynys Mon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7393 (21.2%)
Labour: 10871 (31.1%)
Lib Dem: 751 (2.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 10642 (30.5%)
UKIP: 5121 (14.7%)
Others: 148 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 229 (0.7%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: Wales, Gwynedd. The whole of the Anglesey council area.

Main population centres: Holyhead, Llangefni, Llannerch-y-medd, Menai Bridge, Amlwch, Beaumaris.

Profile: The seat is made up of the large island of Anglesey off the coast of north Wales and the smaller Holy Island. Apart from the industrial Holyhead it is large rural and agricultural and is largely Welsh speaking. The largest towns are Holyhead, a ferry port on Holy Island that serves as a major transport link to Ireland and Llangefni, the commercial and administrative centre of the island. The seat also includes RAF Valley and the Wylfa nuclear power station, planned to cease energy production between 2012 and 2014.

Politics: Ynys Mons (or Anglesey, as the seat was called prior to 1983) has been varied in its politics - it is one of very few seats that have been won by four different parties since the Second World War. Pre-war the seat had been a Liberal stronghold and was held by Megan Lloyd George, as the Liberals declined it fell to Labour in 1951. In 1979 it was won by the Conservative Keith Best, whose career was cut short after being jailed for making fraudulent share applications in 1987. Best was suceeded by Ieuan Wyn Jones of Plaid Cymru in 1987 but the seat was lost to Labour in 2001 after Wyn Jones stood down to concentrate on his Welsh Assembly role..


Current MP
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) Born 1959, Anglesey. Educated at Holyhead County Comprehensive and York University. Former CAB advisor and merchant navy seaman. First elected as MP for Ynys Mon in 2001.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7744 (22%)
Lab: 11490 (33%)
LDem: 2592 (8%)
PC: 9029 (26%)
Oth: 3589 (10%)
MAJ: 2461 (7%)
2005
Con: 3915 (11%)
Lab: 12278 (35%)
LDem: 2418 (7%)
PC: 11036 (31%)
Oth: 5815 (16%)
MAJ: 1242 (4%)
2001
Con: 7653 (22%)
Lab: 11906 (35%)
LDem: 2772 (8%)
PC: 11106 (33%)
Oth: 581 (2%)
MAJ: 800 (2%)
1997
Con: 8569 (21%)
Lab: 13275 (33%)
LDem: 1537 (4%)
PC: 15756 (39%)
Oth: 793 (2%)
MAJ: 2481 (6%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MICHELLE WILLIS (Conservative) Educated at Woodhouse Grove School and Royal Free Hospital. Company director# and former nurse.
ALBERT OWEN (Labour) See above.
MARK ROSENTHAL (Liberal Democrat) Former consultant and civil engineer.
NATHAN GILL (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014.
JOHN ROWLANDS (Plaid) Communications officer and former BBC radio producer.
LIZ SCREEN (Socialist Labour Party) Contested Wales region 2009, 2014 European election.
Links
Comments - 229 Responses on “Ynys Mon”
  1. Tim, you can’t really say that as the Tories never won Caernarvonshire constituency in the post war era. They won Caernarvon Boroughs, which were enclaves within the wider Caernarvonshire Constituency. So for example, towns although Caernarfon town has been represented by all four parties in the post war era, Llandudno, and Conwy Town have not as they were hived off in 1950 (along with Bangor to form Conway) and thus have never been represented by Plaid Cymru at Westminster (Bangor would have been the same had it not been put into Arfon before 2010). So it’s only Caernarfon, Pwllheli and Criccieth etc. towns that have been represented by all 4 parties and these were by far the smaller element of the population in Caernarvon Boroughs compared with Bangor, Llandudno, and Conway. You can’t really compare like with like.

  2. East Dunbartonshire certainly counts (I hadn’t previously clocked how odd the result there in Feb ’74 was, or the fact that remarkably for a fairly affluent seat the short 1974 parliament is the only time it has had a Tory MP).

  3. @Maxim

    Interesting, yes, but I’d only count it as three – Libs/LDs, Labour and Plaid.

  4. Matt has a point as the seat of Caernarfon has been carved up like no other since 1945 – and the by-election the Liberals won was I think prior to the ending of the war, negating it

  5. By-elections count, defections only count if the party they defect to wins the seat at a By-election or GE.

  6. ‘Yes Ceredigion wouldn’t make my list as you can see above’

    I don’t think Ceredigion has ever had any form of Tory representation in its various guises since the mid-19th century

  7. Plaid have launched their GE Campaign in Bangor (an odd choice?)

    Ms Wood said they hope to capture this seat and Rhondda.

  8. @Maxim Parr-Reid

    Actually Caithness & Sutherland (et al) is up to 7 – in 1959 the sitting MP, David Robertson, went independent and held the seat as such without a Conservative opponent later that year. He retired at the 1964 election.

    Another seat with multiples is Ross & Cromarty/… & Skye/…& Inverness West/…& Lochaber which had:

    1945-1951 Independent Liberal (John MacLeod was nominated by a Liberal association unaffiliated to either Liberal party, though the press treated him as a Liberal National he initially intended to join the Sinclairite Liberals but they were wiped out in Scotland and he eventually joined the National Liberals post name change & merger)
    1951-1964 National Liberal & Conservative
    1964-1970 – Liberal
    1970-1983 – Conservative
    1983-1988 SDP
    1988-2015 – Liberal Democrat
    2015- SNP

  9. With the polls as they are, this should really be considered a Con/Plaid marginal and not a Lab/Plaid one. Much like Berwickshire last GE, this is a seat closely contested by two parties hoping to gain the seat as the incumbent melts away.

  10. Maybe. But this seat has always behaved a bit weirdly. I wouldn’t rule out that Albert Owen somehow holds out against the tide once again.

    Ieuan Wyn Jones, MP here from 1987 to 2001 and AM for the equivalent seat from 1999 to 2013, has reportedly applied for the Plaid nomination

  11. This seat is a strange seat. Who knows who could win. Any one of three could win.

  12. Ieuan Wyn Jones has been adopted as the Plaid Cymru candidate for the June 8th 2017 election.

  13. I think that this one might be a Conservative gain. If Plaid fail to pick up Rhondda then this would come as a huge embarrassment for the party. Even worse if they are hard-pressed in Dwyfor Meirionnydd from the Tories.

  14. Ieuan Wyn Jones has a long-standing very high profile locally. He must start as favourite in the light of Labour’s decline in the polls. Not sure about the Tories – parts of east Ynys Mon are commuter country for Bangor and they have held the seat in the past. Their current surge in Wales might be enough if they can find the workers to cover the seat. I would be surprised if Labour held on. PC will get plenty of help from students in Bangor.

  15. ‘parts of east Ynys Mon are commuter country for Bangor and they have held the seat in the past.’

    Only for a couple of terms though – in the late 70s/early 80s under somebody so far to the Left they were barely a Tory

    Although with the way things look for the Tories in Wales they could be bettering it by taking seats like Alyn & Desside and Wrexham – which they’ve never won before

  16. If the last opinion poll for Wales, which showed a 10% swing from Labour to Conservative, proves half right, the Conservatives are in with their best chance of taking this seat since Keith Best’s surprise victory in 1979 (which is the only occasion the Conservatives have ever gained this seat?).

    Worth noting that Anglesey narrowly voted Leave (in contrast to Gwynned on the other side of the straits) and there is a 15% UKIP vote to draw on.

  17. But tough to know where that UKIP vote will go. It’s possible that some of it may go to Plaid, as the Plaid vote here is somewhat akin to the Lib Dem vote in Cornwall, more parochial than progressive.

  18. The latest YouGov Wales poll have Plaid falling back 2 points, Labour up 5 and the Conservatives up 1. The changes are from the last Welsh Poll about two weeks ago which sensationally put the Conservatives ahead in Wales.

    Using a universal swing (which I know is unlikely to happen all over Wales, let alone here) it gives the Conservatives the edge here.

    http://sites.cardiff.ac.uk/wgc/2017/05/08/new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-3/

    The poll puts the Conservatives on 41%, Labour on 35%, Plaid on 11%, Lib Dems on 7%, UKIP on 4% and the others on 2%.

    If that swing happened universally across Wales, Labour would loose 7 seats including this one to the Conservatives.

    UKIP won 13.6% in Wales in 2015 and their vote is now down to 4%. If the UKIP vote here goes to the Conservatives they could easily win it.

    Having said that, the Conservatives don’t seem to have picked a candidate yet and with the high profile Labour and Plaid candidates the Conservatives may struggle for local credibility here.

  19. For anyone interested a full list of Wales only polls, which specifically ask about GE voting intention, since 2015 can be found here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Wales

  20. Are we expecting a three-way marginal here? That’d be my guess, with bests on Plaid.

  21. Agreed – three-way marginal with Plaid edging it. Maybe 1000 votes separating the top three.

  22. Looking at the cross tabs of that poll, 67% of UKIP supporters from 2015 are switching to the Conservatives.

    Far from an exact science I know, but add imagine if it happened – 3,431 UKIP votes switch to the Conservatives and they’re just 47 votes behind Albert Owen’s 2015 figure.

    And that’s before Labour loose any support.

  23. I do think there is an outside chance of a Con gain, but I doubt it’ll happen. Also depends on how many PC to Con switchers there are.

  24. Tory candidate lives in streatham….not sure that will play well in Ynys Mon.

  25. These things like ‘lives in Streatham’ aren’t always what they seem.

    But if it is in this case, that’s a stupid own goal in a seat Cons were otherwise favourites in.

  26. This has been one of punter’s favourite seats. I got 12/1 on Labour here, now 2/1

    Is there any intelligence from the ground here- evidence that Plaid are going after this seat in a big way? One imagines they will.

  27. Stronger than average swing to Labour here

  28. Ex Town Cllr and Welsh Assembly candidate Daniel Meredith ap Eifion Jones has been convicted of fraud and theft.

    He stole £614 from Anglesey Foodbank and received a 13 week sentence suspended for a year and was ordered to carry out 150 hours of community service.

    The ex Labour member made the Labour shortlist for the 2013 By-election but stood as an Independent most recently after failing to secure the Labour nomination.

  29. Albert Owen is to stand down at the next general election.

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