Wythenshawe & Sale East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11124 (25.7%)
Labour: 21693 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 1927 (4.5%)
Green: 1658 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6354 (14.7%)
TUSC: 215 (0.5%)
Loony: 292 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10569 (24.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Manchester council area and part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Wythenshawe, Sale.

Profile: The seat is mostly made up of the huge inter-war council estate of Wythenshawe, built to house the overspill population of Manchester and one of the largest council estates in the country. While some properties have been bought by tenants through the right to buy in 2001 almost 40% of the seat remained as social housing. As well as Wythenshawe the seat contains the eastern part of the more affluent suburb of Sale. Manchester Airport is situated in the south of the constitutency.

Politics: While there is some Conservative presence in Sale, Wythenshawe itself is overwhelmingly Labour and makes this a safe Labour seat, held with large majorities since its creation in 1997. There was a by-election here in the last Parliament following the death of Paul Goggins, resulting in an easy Labour hold.


Current MP
PAUL GOGGINS (Labour) Born 1953, Manchester. Educated at St Bede's College and Birmingham Polytechnic. Former director of Church Action on Poverty. Salford councillor 1990-1998. First elected as MP for Wythenshawe and Sale East in 1997. PPS to John Denham 1998-2000, PPS to David Blunkett 2000-2003, Junior minister at the Home office 2003-2006, junior minister Northern Ireland office 2006-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10412 (26%)
Lab: 17987 (44%)
LDem: 9107 (22%)
BNP: 1572 (4%)
Oth: 1673 (4%)
MAJ: 7575 (19%)
2005
Con: 8051 (22%)
Lab: 18878 (52%)
LDem: 7766 (21%)
UKIP: 1120 (3%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 10827 (30%)
2001
Con: 8424 (24%)
Lab: 21032 (60%)
LDem: 4320 (12%)
GRN: 869 (2%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 12608 (36%)
1997
Con: 11429 (25%)
Lab: 26448 (58%)
LDem: 5639 (12%)
Oth: 957 (2%)
MAJ: 15019 (33%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
FIONA GREEN (Conservative)
MIKE KANE (Labour) See above.
VICTOR CHAMBERLAIN (Liberal Democrat)
LEE CLAYTON (UKIP) Born 1977, Wythenshawe. Educated at Poundswick High School. Security consultant and former paratrooper.
JESSICA MAYO (Green)
LYNN WORTHINGTON (TUSC)
JOHNNY DISCO (Loony) , real name John Horner.
Links
Comments - 211 Responses on “Wythenshawe & Sale East”
  1. I found it pretty ironic that Dorothy Brookes has the nerve to complain about the colour of other people’s skin.

  2. That was more a personal opinion of myself and a few of my friends, perhaps it was a bit unfair and i should have stated It as such. To me she came across as a complete lightweight.

    As for this seat if I reckon JDA prediction is bang on. LD deposit may narrowly go though.

  3. Such is the BNP’s downfall. Fielding her as their candidate just seemed like one of those satircal moments in comedy.

  4. Surely their London candidate was even funnier?

  5. I thought Emma Lewell-Buck was an excellent candidate. Wish some people could see past alpha male types

  6. Labour certainly saw past the alpha male type when it was selecting its leader.

  7. What categorisation would we be giving Chris Huhne had he become Lib Dem leader, I wonder?

  8. It would have been very interesting had he been elected. One of the great what if’s of politics. I presume he would have gone into coalition with the tories as he is reasonably right wing for Lib Dem.

    The leader going to prison would have put a already haggered party under enormous amounts of pressure. Could it have been de facto the end of the Lib Dems? Would Farron get the leadership and then pull out of the coalition?

  9. UKIP candidate to be unveiled on Thursday

    Labour deadline for applications was today, I think.

    Conservatives deadline for applications tomorrow

    LibDems to meet a week today

  10. I disagree re : Huhne – he is certainly to the left of Clegg and there would have been far less congruence between himself and Cameron.

    I actually doubt whether there would have been a formal coalition if he had been leader.

  11. HH ; they certainly did – its such a relief not to have the smarmy salesmen with their snake oil in charge.

    I actually dislike Alpha male types – I don’t have many among my personal friends and most of them are simply not on my wavelength

  12. I will be watching second place with interest here. Though the Trafford wards are far from the Tories’ strongest territory in that borough, they all still have a pretty decent (and in the case of Brooklands majority) Tory vote. The Tories should also poll OK vis a vis UKIP in the Brooklands ward within the City of Manchester, and really ought to be able to retain second place. It could be an interesting contest in that regard, though I find it very hard to believe that Labour will have any trouble in winning, and winning easily at that.

  13. Countydurham Boy – I expect the UKIP hype is due to the opinion poll that showed 27% of the public view them as the most favourable Party. It doesn’t, of course, mean they would all vote for them. Although UKIP has risen in every UK Parl by-election in the past 2 years. I expect Paul Nuttall to organise their campaign but doubt he’ll stand as he’s standing in May as their lead NW Euro candidate. It could be a snow-filled by-election.

  14. “Labour deadline for applications was today, I think.”

    yes. Shortlisting by NEC panel on Wednesday. Selection by W&SE members on Friday night

  15. “I disagree re : Huhne – he is certainly to the left of Clegg and there would have been far less congruence between himself and Cameron.

    I actually doubt whether there would have been a formal coalition if he had been leader.”

    I think that’s correct, and indeed Huhne has said as much himself recently in his Guardian column. Also don’t forget how much tension there was between Huhne and the Tories in cabinet, much more so than Clegg.

  16. Of course, had Huhne won the leadership, his grubby behaviour would have come to light sooner. Perhaps just before the GE.

  17. But if Huhne was really against a formal coalition why did he not join Charles Kennedy at the time in opposing it? Had he done so, I suspect he could have scuppered it.

  18. Because he became a Minister probably.

    Kennedy had no chance of a position of power so he had nothing to lose by opposing it. Huhne was in a position to become a cabinet minister and, like most politicians, power came before principles.

  19. I don’t think Huhne has any principles as we might understand them – beyond self-promotion and self-indulgence.

  20. was just going to post something along those lines

  21. It would have been even more interesting had Huhne been found out pre-2010. Maybe there would have been a chance of a tory majority?

  22. This morning Rosie Winterton did her writ moving thing in the Commons, which starts the whole process moving.

  23. I say a Labour Hold, with the UKIP/Conservative fight for 2nd grabbing most of the headlines.

  24. That 22% Lib Dem vote is likely to be eaten up a lot by Labour, although the natural protest element will no doubt go to UKIP.

  25. Regarding this by-election (whose polling date of 13 February 2014 is now official by the looks of things), I believe current information about fates of major party selection of candidates means that the deadline for submission of nominations in said by-election will be 30 January-is this correct? That deadline cannot be 23 January at any rate because the Lib Dems will not announce their candidate for this by-election until 27 January.

    Also, I would like you to take a guess at how many candidates will stand in this by-election. I guess 10, even though this is a safe seat.

  26. I’m going to second 10 candidates:

    Conservative
    Labour
    Lib Dem
    BNP
    UKIP
    TUSC

    There’ll probably be a Green and a Loony, and a couple of independents to round it off.

  27. You’re forgetting the NHA Party

    *snigger*

  28. Doktorb, I do not believe the NHAP will stand here, not if the Greens are standing anyway (in all likelihood,the Greens will stand in this by-election 🙂 )

    As for MrNameless, yes, all the parties you initially listed will stand here and yes, the Official Monster Raving Loony Party will probably stand here as well as they generally do in parliamentary by-elections, but it may be The Flying Brick standing (he lives nearby) rather than Howling Laud Hope (the OMRLP’s leader). Also, minor parties could take a shot here in addition to Independents; by-elections are theatre,after all.

  29. Can’t think which minor parties would stand here, really. Respect haven’t a hope, and NHAP as you rightly say won’t stand.

    Maybe the continuing Liberals? Or the CPB?

  30. Loz Kaye could stand here for the Pirates (he seems to be the only party member of theirs in Manchester)

  31. Actually,Doktorb, as you might notice from the Manchester council election results from 2012 the Pirate Party in Manchester have several people apart from Lawrence ‘Loz’ Kaye, who is the leader and main personality,though.. Also, I heard somewhere that they have nominated a PPC, Graeme Lambert, for Bury North.

    And to Mr. Nameless, quite a few of these by-elections feature minor parties that spring up out of nowhere and then fade for at least a while-Democracy 2015, People’s Democratic Party, Beer,Baccy and Crumpet Party are just a few examples.

  32. The Pirate Party is a phenomenon in Europe (particularly Sweden and Germany). While having a narrow focus on tech issues (mainly) they definitely bring something to the table for the under-30s and the rest of us who recognise the web as having been turned, in some ways, against its users…

    I have wondered whether the origins of the name comes from the Edelweis Piratten that gave the Nazis such a lot of domestic trouble in the last few years of the war..

  33. Some of my wife’s friends were in a band called The Edelweiss Pirates. One of the best names for a band ever imo.

  34. The name comes from The Pirate Bay website.

    The first by-election candidate has been confirmed – John Bickley for UKIP.

  35. Labour shortlist –

    Cllr Rosa Battle
    Cllr Catherine Hynes
    Cllr Suzannah Reeves
    Cllr Sophie Taylor
    Mike Kane

  36. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/455358/Ukip-pick-former-Labour-supporter-as-candidate-in-constituency-of-late-Paul-Goggins

    UKIP’s candidate was a former Labour supporter. AND has business experience.

    Labour high command needs to wake up to the fact that UKIP is not just taking Tory support, but their own as well. Tony Blair could be Labour leader at this very moment in time, running on the same platform as he did in 1997. Those same voters would not be flocking to him.

    Years of uncritical pandering to the EU in the Blair/Brown years was a contributing factor and the sidelining of Euroscepticism in the party. Things like that will bite them hard.

  37. Conservative candidate to be confirmed tonight

  38. The UKIP PPC was featured on BBC North West Tonight and came across well as a local businessman. The Tories have chosen a young vicar, although I assume Rev Critchlow doesn’t expect to be elected, as he’s off to Uganda in March!

  39. Eddy O’Sullivan chosen by the BNP

  40. LabourList mentioned in the shortlist blog post that he was meant to be the favourite.

    He seems like a pretty reasonable selection. His bio is on Movement for Change states that he grew up in Wythenshawe and was a teacher.

  41. Following recent events, this is a potential disaster for the LibDems, if they trail UKIP badly.

  42. That is a bit of whistling back the graveyard.. this will be more of a test of what effect the rise of UKIP has on Labour than anything else..

  43. Strong local candidate. Wouldn’t have been my choice – too right wing for me – but popular locally

  44. It’s quite rare for left-wingers to be selected for Manchester city constituencies. One exception was Bob Litherland MP for Manchester Central from 1979 to 1997. A number of left-wingers have been selected in the past for Withington but that was before Labour won the seat.

  45. Regarding the by-election, I just remembered to look at the ‘Notice of Election’ on Manchester City Council’s website and it appears nominations will not close until the afternoon of Wednesday 29th. So keep watching this space,folks,and please do not post any party-by-party by-election predictions until we know who exactly will be standing.

  46. Are you going to allow us to predict the winning candidate though?

  47. Barnaby, I think we already know that Labour has a very high chance of holding this seat! It is safe for them,after all.

  48. Very kind of you!

  49. Pete,

    Would the Conservatives have won this seat in 1964?

    Surely East Sale would have counter balanced the relocation of Labour voters from inner Manchester to periferal Wythenshawe for some time.

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