Wythenshawe & Sale East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11124 (25.7%)
Labour: 21693 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 1927 (4.5%)
Green: 1658 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6354 (14.7%)
TUSC: 215 (0.5%)
Loony: 292 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10569 (24.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Manchester council area and part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Wythenshawe, Sale.

Profile: The seat is mostly made up of the huge inter-war council estate of Wythenshawe, built to house the overspill population of Manchester and one of the largest council estates in the country. While some properties have been bought by tenants through the right to buy in 2001 almost 40% of the seat remained as social housing. As well as Wythenshawe the seat contains the eastern part of the more affluent suburb of Sale. Manchester Airport is situated in the south of the constitutency.

Politics: While there is some Conservative presence in Sale, Wythenshawe itself is overwhelmingly Labour and makes this a safe Labour seat, held with large majorities since its creation in 1997. There was a by-election here in the last Parliament following the death of Paul Goggins, resulting in an easy Labour hold.


Current MP
PAUL GOGGINS (Labour) Born 1953, Manchester. Educated at St Bede's College and Birmingham Polytechnic. Former director of Church Action on Poverty. Salford councillor 1990-1998. First elected as MP for Wythenshawe and Sale East in 1997. PPS to John Denham 1998-2000, PPS to David Blunkett 2000-2003, Junior minister at the Home office 2003-2006, junior minister Northern Ireland office 2006-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10412 (26%)
Lab: 17987 (44%)
LDem: 9107 (22%)
BNP: 1572 (4%)
Oth: 1673 (4%)
MAJ: 7575 (19%)
2005
Con: 8051 (22%)
Lab: 18878 (52%)
LDem: 7766 (21%)
UKIP: 1120 (3%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 10827 (30%)
2001
Con: 8424 (24%)
Lab: 21032 (60%)
LDem: 4320 (12%)
GRN: 869 (2%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 12608 (36%)
1997
Con: 11429 (25%)
Lab: 26448 (58%)
LDem: 5639 (12%)
Oth: 957 (2%)
MAJ: 15019 (33%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
FIONA GREEN (Conservative)
MIKE KANE (Labour) See above.
VICTOR CHAMBERLAIN (Liberal Democrat)
LEE CLAYTON (UKIP) Born 1977, Wythenshawe. Educated at Poundswick High School. Security consultant and former paratrooper.
JESSICA MAYO (Green)
LYNN WORTHINGTON (TUSC)
JOHNNY DISCO (Loony) , real name John Horner.
Links
Comments - 211 Responses on “Wythenshawe & Sale East”
  1. I wonder if Pete could give us notional results for this constituency from 1955 onwards.

    The Conservatives won Manchester Wythenshawe in 1959 but it included Didsbury at that time.

  2. Byelections 1997 – 2001 (Parties defending)

    Conservative – 5
    Labour – 8
    Lib Dem – 1
    Plaid Cymru – 1
    UUP – 1
    Speaker – 1

    By-elections 2001 – 2005

    Labour – 6

    By-elections 2005 – 2010

    Conservative – 3
    Labour – 8
    Lib Dem – 1
    Independent – 1
    Speaker – 1

    By-elections 2010 +

    Conservative – 1
    Labour – 13 (inc. Wythenshawe and Sale East)
    Lib Dem – 1
    Sinn Féin – 2

  3. “I wonder if Pete could give us notional results for this constituency from 1955 onwards.”

    Yes I could probably do that. This sounds like a good way to spend part of this evening

  4. Pete- on a related point, I would be interested to see how far the Conservative position has declined in the wards comprising Sale (if you had time of course).

  5. It really is a shame about what has happened. I really got to respect Paul over the years.

    The by-election could be interesting depending on how much effort each party puts in.

  6. 1955

    Con 28862 51.5%
    Lab 25143 44.9%
    Lib 2005 3.6%

    Maj 3719 6.6%

    1959

    Con 30676 48.6%
    Lab 29501 46.7%
    Lib 2933 4.6%

    Maj 1175 1.9%

    1964

    Lab 29158 46.4%
    Con 23908 38.0%
    Lib 9771 15.5%

    Maj 5250 8.4%

    1966

    Lab 30209 51.6%
    Con 21184 36.2%
    Lib 7124 12.2%

    Maj 9025 15.4%

    1970

    Lab 32165 52.5%
    Con 26673 43.5%
    Lib 2453 4.0%

    Maj 5492 9.0%

  7. Feb-74

    Lab 31479 47.3%
    Con 22593 34.0%
    Lib 12431 18.7%

    Maj 8886 13.4%

    Oct-74

    Lab 31487 50.9%
    Con 19628 31.7%
    Lib 10737 17.4%

    Maj 11859 19.2%

    1979

    Lab 31164 49.4%
    Con 23952 37.9%
    Lib 7779 12.3%
    Oth 248 0.4%

    Maj 7212 11.4%

    1983

    Lab 26365 44.2%
    Con 20635 34.6%
    Lib 12494 20.9%
    Oth 197 0.3%

    Maj 5730 9.6%

    1987

    Lab 28395 47.0%
    Con 20573 34.1%
    Lib 11178 18.5%
    Oth 215 0.4%

    Maj 7822 13.0%

    1992

    Lab 28155 50.2%
    Con 19790 35.3%
    Lib 7473 13.3%
    Oth 624 1.1%

    Maj 8365 14.9%

  8. Interesting, thanks Pete.

  9. And by contrast how about the 1955 Wythenshawe ie including Didsbury?
    At a guess higher LibDems and lower Conservatives.

    Also what results would the 1955 Withington have had?
    At a guess Labour continuously from 1974 onwards.

  10. What is interesting is the swing to Labour in 1959. There was a small but significant swing in Wythenshawe itself but actually a much larger swing in Altrincham & Sale. This is of course against the national trend but perhaps not the regional swing as several seats in this region swung to Labour that year and indeed Oldham East and Rochdale (relative to 1955) were the only Labour gains from the Tories in England that year. These were a specific reaction to problems affecting the textile industry I believe and this would not have been so much of an issue in this area, but another factor would be the growth in council housing which largely occurred in the 1950s. There are pockets of council housing in Altrincham (Village ward) and in Sale (Sale Moor and West Sale) which I would guess were built in this period.
    This ties in with the question you asked Tory as while in 1955 the Tories enjoyed a lead of nigh on 40% in the ‘Sale East’ wards (63/24) this had already dropped to 30% by 1959 (57/26) and 20% by 1964. It then fluctuated more or less in line with the national situation – dropping as low as 15% in 1966 and October 1974, rising to nearer 30% in 1979 and 1983 but dropping back to 20% in 1987 and 1992.
    Labour will of course have carried ‘Sale East’ in the 1997-2005 period though only narrowly in the last year.
    In 2010 the Tories ‘gained’ Sale East on a small swing of less than 3% beating Labour with 37.5% against 34.5% (‘Sale West’ would also have voted Labour in the three Blair elections and Tory in 2010 – overall both halves of the town have voted similarly to one another though the 2010 results are compromised by the inclusion of the St Martins area in the Bucklow ward and the Stretford & Urmston constituency)

  11. “Also what results would the 1955 Withington have had?
    At a guess Labour continuously from 1974 onwards.”

    Funnily enough I did work these out although it wasn’t necessary for me to do so to get the Wythenshawe results. I have done anyway 1955-1970 inclusive:

    1955

    Con 35070 64.7%
    Lab 15432 28.5%
    Lib 3735 6.9%

    Maj 19638 36.2%

    1959

    Con 33501 60.4%
    Lab 16322 29.4%
    Lib 5646 10.2%

    Maj 17179 31.0%

    1964

    Con 25572 49.0%
    Lab 15236 29.2%
    Lib 11387 21.8%

    Maj 10336 19.8%

    1966

    Con 23229 47.8%
    Lab 18216 37.5%
    Lib 7129 14.7%

    Maj 5013 10.3%

    1970

    Con 26967 55.1%
    Lab 18652 38.1%
    Lib 3340 6.8%

    Maj 8315 17.0%

    It would certainly have been Conservative in 1974 as the existing Withington seat was and the addition of Chorlton at that time would only have strengthened their position. Of course they won Withington on those boundaries in 1983 and the boundaries now are barely different to then

  12. I think I misunderstood in which case yes probably had Withington continued on the old (1955-70) boundaries it would have gone Labour in 1974 and possibly remained in their hands since (but see below)
    The 2010 result on the old Wythenshawe (ie including Didsbury) boundaries

    Lab 17420 45.5%
    LD 11781 30.8%
    Con 6486 16.9%
    UKIP 1064 2.8%
    BNP 1108 2.9%
    Grn 178 0.5%
    oth 233 0.6%

    And Withington

    LD 13069 43.8%
    Lab 12390 41.5%
    Con 3032 10.2%
    Grn 652 2.2%
    UKIP 377 1.3%
    oth 345 1.2%

    so actually not very different to the actual result on the current boundaries (bear in mind LD strength in Levenshulme and relative Labour strength in Chorlton)

  13. Pete- thanks again. One might say that Graham Brady is reasonably fortunate insofar as he has never had all of Sale in his constituency and no longer has Bucklow. As such, I think his position in Altrincham and Sale West looks reasonably secure. How has the Tory performance in Altrincham itself changed? Labour doesn’t seem to have done well in the town itself since the mid 1990s.

  14. Thanks for this Pete, most interesting as always.

  15. There was also a very high number of by-elections in the 8792 & 92-97 parliament as well. Although that period is well remembered for the more memorable by elections when the Tories were losing safe seats.

    And let’s not forget that parties have gone to pretty extreme lengths to avoid by-elections in the past. Bromsgrove 1995 springs to mind.

    I also think all 8 of the MP who has the whip suspended over the Maastricht rebellion should have resigned to force by-elections on a point of principle. Although that might have something to do with my not linking my local MP (Richard Shepard) and the fact that Labour would almost certainly have won a by-election in Aldridge-Brownhills in spring 1995. I wonder how by-elections in the other seats held by Maastrcht rebels would have gone? I’m guessing maybe Ludlow and Ruislip-Northwood would have been the only Tory hold?

  16. And if that had happened there would have been a general election in April 1996 as the government would have fallen in a vote of no confidence over the Scott report.

  17. 1987 – 1992

    Conservative – 10
    Labour – 13
    UUP – 1

    1992 – 1997

    Conservative – 8
    Labour – 9
    UPU – 1

  18. The funeral took yesterday at Salford Cathedral at the presence of Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, Caroline Flint, Yvette Cooper, Ivan Lewis, David Blunkett, John Bercow, Ming Campbell, John Leech, Graham Brady and Malcolm Rifkind

  19. One of the advantages of not being a politician is that the attendance at your funeral is not likely to be dominated by slimy hypocritical wankers, most of whom hated you when you were alive.

  20. Was that directed at all or just some of those?

  21. LOL. Not any in particular. Just that politicians always seem to make a show of dominating funerals and memorial services, often seemingly to improve their own public image. Alan Clark had the right idea, he was buried quickly in his own garden with just his family in attendance.

  22. Some MPs are genuinely liked in private by their colleagues from all parties. Paul Goggins appears to have been one such MP.

  23. I myself haven’t heard a bad word against him. And he wasn’t on my wing of the party by any means. The same, perhaps coincidentally, went for his predecessor Alf Morris who of course died quite recently himself.

  24. Byelection is likely to be called for February 13th

    Labour will choose this coming Friday.

  25. He was quite a mentor to many NW Labour MP’s as well. Andy Burnham came to speak to our constituency on Friday after the funeral and it had clearly been a sad occasion.

  26. Labour shortlisting will take place on Wednesday

  27. LAB 48
    CON 21
    LD 15
    UKIP 10
    GRN 3
    OTH 3

  28. February 27th is the earliest date the by-election can be held.

    The Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013 requires the campaign to last a minimum of 25 days (not including weekends and public holidays) from the writ being moved to polling day. The previous minimum was 17 days.

    I think this might be the first by-election to take place under the new law.

  29. Hope they opt for a local candidate.

  30. By-election to be held on 13th February.

  31. How is that possible? (See my earlier post).

  32. Wikipedia only states that the 2013 act as been given royal assent, it doesn’t say that it’s currently in force. Could we still be waiting for parliament to pass commencement orders?

  33. Adam: I saw your earlier post but the new law cannot have come into effect yet. The date is definite now.

  34. A short sharp campaign. It is likely that Labour has reasonably up-to-date canvassing returns for the whole constituency, from the 2012 local elections; that wouldn’t apply to any other party in the seat.

  35. I wonder if Paul Nuttall will stand for UKIP.

    I have to say I’ve taken a real dislike to him every time he’s been on Question Time.

    And selecting a Liverpudlian in Manchester might backfire. But I guess he’s their biggest hitter in these parts.

  36. “And selecting a Liverpudlian in Manchester might backfire. But I guess he’s their biggest hitter in these parts.”

    But he stood in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election in March 2011 and got 6% then, so if he stood here, he might in current circumstances do not too bad.

  37. Andy JS: You’re right. According to the UK Statute Law Database, the commencement orders for section 14 of the act (extension of the length of campaign period) have not yet been made.

    So this could be the last time we have a by-election with a short campaign.

  38. I wonder what “not too bad” would be, though. I’m thinking 20% plus, to keep up with current momentum. I don’t think this will necessarily be as easy for UKIP as Yorkshire seats like Barnsley or Rotherham. The right candidate is crucial.

  39. UKIP already had a good vote in Barnsley and Rotherham though. Here they’re starting from a lower base, therefore if they did manage anything like 20% it would be a very good result for them I would think.

  40. Surely Nuttall would prefer standing for his home seat of Bootle next year.

  41. He will. No doubt about it. Barring some extraordinary set of circumstances that would prevent him from doing so, he will.

    Of course Bootle being my own seat I can attest that an individual like Paul Nuttall will probably stand there for the rest of his life. He seems to be enough of a personality locally to continually get UKIP’s vote up and up, and while they are too far back to ever challenge Labour, I would be surprised if they do not manage a fairly respectable second place for the next two general elections at least.

  42. “Here they’re starting from a lower base, therefore if they did manage anything like 20% it would be a very good result for them I would think.”

    But after the good performances in recent by-elections, the media will portray it as a poor result for UKIP if they fail to make yet another 2nd place finish.

  43. Considering how respectable their vote share was last time, I think the Tories may just take 2nd place from UKIP.

  44. They came from no where in Eastleigh last year and almost took that from the Lib Dems though.

  45. Different circumstances though here Neil to be fair mate. This is Labour-held, and while the Tories are in second place, they’re not competitive like they were/are in Eastleigh. But despite that I reckon it could be a battle for second place with the Tories, but with the Tories keeping runner up spot due to their established local base with UKIP about 2% behind them at the byelection.

  46. There seem to be quite a few people who seem to think UKIP have a chance of winning this! This includes so called experts like Mike Smithson. I can not understand why on earth anyone thinks labour could lose this. Ukip will be doing well in my eyes if they beat 24% they got in South shields, as I see this as a weaker seat for them. Obviously we must wait to see candidate selection however Labour will struggle to find a worse candidate than the one in Shields.
    ( I want Labour to win this btw)

  47. For the by election I would say
    Lab 51
    Ukip 21
    Con 16
    Lib Dem 7
    BNP 2
    Other 3

  48. Agreed. UKIP may well not even get 2nd here. Those ramping UKIP are the type who see the north as a singularity of whippets and flat caps.

  49. “Obviously we must wait to see candidate selection however Labour will struggle to find a worse candidate than the one in Shields.”

    Is Emma Lewell-Buck not particularly well regarded?

    I still remember that by-election with the BNP candidate’s notable fake tan.

  50. Emma Lewell-Buck makes a better MP than the ridiculous *Lady* Dorothy *Macbeth* Brooke would have done.

    Thats about as far as I would go.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)