Wythenshawe & Sale East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11124 (25.7%)
Labour: 21693 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 1927 (4.5%)
Green: 1658 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6354 (14.7%)
TUSC: 215 (0.5%)
Loony: 292 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10569 (24.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Manchester council area and part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Wythenshawe, Sale.

Profile: The seat is mostly made up of the huge inter-war council estate of Wythenshawe, built to house the overspill population of Manchester and one of the largest council estates in the country. While some properties have been bought by tenants through the right to buy in 2001 almost 40% of the seat remained as social housing. As well as Wythenshawe the seat contains the eastern part of the more affluent suburb of Sale. Manchester Airport is situated in the south of the constitutency.

Politics: While there is some Conservative presence in Sale, Wythenshawe itself is overwhelmingly Labour and makes this a safe Labour seat, held with large majorities since its creation in 1997. There was a by-election here in the last Parliament following the death of Paul Goggins, resulting in an easy Labour hold.


Current MP
PAUL GOGGINS (Labour) Born 1953, Manchester. Educated at St Bede's College and Birmingham Polytechnic. Former director of Church Action on Poverty. Salford councillor 1990-1998. First elected as MP for Wythenshawe and Sale East in 1997. PPS to John Denham 1998-2000, PPS to David Blunkett 2000-2003, Junior minister at the Home office 2003-2006, junior minister Northern Ireland office 2006-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10412 (26%)
Lab: 17987 (44%)
LDem: 9107 (22%)
BNP: 1572 (4%)
Oth: 1673 (4%)
MAJ: 7575 (19%)
2005
Con: 8051 (22%)
Lab: 18878 (52%)
LDem: 7766 (21%)
UKIP: 1120 (3%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 10827 (30%)
2001
Con: 8424 (24%)
Lab: 21032 (60%)
LDem: 4320 (12%)
GRN: 869 (2%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 12608 (36%)
1997
Con: 11429 (25%)
Lab: 26448 (58%)
LDem: 5639 (12%)
Oth: 957 (2%)
MAJ: 15019 (33%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
FIONA GREEN (Conservative)
MIKE KANE (Labour) See above.
VICTOR CHAMBERLAIN (Liberal Democrat)
LEE CLAYTON (UKIP) Born 1977, Wythenshawe. Educated at Poundswick High School. Security consultant and former paratrooper.
JESSICA MAYO (Green)
LYNN WORTHINGTON (TUSC)
JOHNNY DISCO (Loony) , real name John Horner.
Links
Comments - 211 Responses on “Wythenshawe & Sale East”
  1. 2012 council results for this constituency. Last Manchester seat for me to calculate – I’m leaving Central since there was that by-election. Be aware 5 wards are in Manchester, but 3 are in Trafford.

    Labour: 12,010 (56.9%)
    Conservatives: 4,731 (22.4%)
    Liberal Democrats: 1,389 (6.6%)
    Greens: 1,347 (6.4%)
    UKIP: 1,320 (6.3%)
    TUSC: 193 (negligible)
    Independent: 117 (negligible)

    Total votes: 21,107

    Compared to the 2010 council elections here:

    Labour: +14.6%
    Conservatives: -2.4%
    Liberal Democrats:-17.6%
    UKIP: +3.3%
    Greens: +3.7%
    BNP: -2.1%

    Swing from Con to Lab: 8.5%

  2. This is by far the strongest seat for the Conservatives in Manchester, and mostly because of those Trafford wards. Still Labour miles ahead. Pretty resilient Tory local vote though.

  3. The fact that this is the Tories’ best seat in Manchester despite including Europe’s largest council estate at Wythenshawe only proves how bad things are for them in the rest of the city.

  4. Labour could be stacking up 60% here.
    I wonder whether we do see the swings to Labour largely confined to areas they hold.

  5. Interesting that Labour did rather well in this seat and a couple of others in Greater Manchester like Denton and Reddish and Stretford and Urmston.

    I don’t know why they increased their majorities in their safe seats in this part of the North West, but I’m sure there must have been some reason?

  6. The town of Sale looks to be trending Labour long-term. By and large it’s still a middle-class professional area but the higher managerial types are better represented in Altrincham, Hale, and Bowden. Indeed I think that the pre-1983 Altrincham and Sale would be pretty marginal if it existed today.

  7. Very much in the same way as with London, the higher managerial voters have tended to move further & further out of Manchester; thus partly because of this Sale (which is a pleasant but frankly rather nondescript area) has gradually moved demographically slightly closer to areas immediately to its north, which are in the Stretford & Urmston constituency. Altrincham which is closer to the edge of the conurbation has seen no such change, less still Hale, Hale Barns & Bowdon which are extremely select areas still, for the most part.

  8. *Bowdon even.

    A ‘within quota’ Altrincham and Sale based on: Altrincham; Timperley; Village; Broadheath; St Marys; Brooklands; Sale Moor; Priory; and Ashton upon Mersey would have produced a Tory majority of about 6000 in 2010 (something like Tory 42, Lab 30, LD 26)

  9. Barnaby- one could go further and suggest that there has been a pro-Tory trend in Altrincham itself- Labour got nowhere near winning it in what was a reasonably good 2012 for them.

  10. Interestingly, the Tory position relative to Labour in Altrincham and Sale West has not declined that much in recent years. According to Robert Waller, the notional 1992 result was: Con 54.5; Lab 26.4; LD 18.4. In 2010, the figures were: Con 48.9; LD 25.5; Lab 22.4. Arguably, the removal of Bucklow St Martins after 2005 will have helped the Conservatives but I still think Brady is doing pretty well in less favourable demographic circumstances than his predecessor Fergus Montgomery.

  11. Tory – yes it’s true Labour have won Altrincham ward in the past, but it seems rather beyond them at the moment. Wards further north have if anything gone in the opposite direction.

  12. “Very much in the same way as with London, the higher managerial voters have tended to move further & further out of Manchester”

    Certainly higher managerial private sector have.

    Some higher managerial public sector will have moved further in to areas such as Didsbury which have regentrified.

    Access to work being the key factor here with public sector higher managerial positions being very urban based – health, universities, government, quangos etc – while higher managerial private sector can work anywhere. Certainly in my experience many higher managerial private sector workers live in upmarket areas but travel long distances to work in some deeply unglamorous even deprived areas.

    The exception to this is London where from the City you have an urban based source of higher managerial private sector workers and with them the consequent Conservative votes.

  13. Manchester Airport is in this constituency and I have used it twice this year.

    I am happy to discuss the issue of who’s going to fund proposed Manchester Airport expansion with anyone.

    I also know that Jeremy Hunt’s wife is called Lucia.

    My 2015 forecast for Wythenshawe and Sale East:

    Lab 50
    Con 17
    UKIP 15
    LD 13
    Others 5

  14. “I also know that Jeremy Hunt’s wife is called Lucia.”

    ??

  15. I don’t mean to sound unkind but it may time to block A Brown for a while – I originally thought that he was just messing around trying to be funny with all of his off-beat information, but now (like I suspect many others) it sounds like someone who could perhaps benefit from taking a break for a while.

  16. Unfortunate news about the Labour MP for this seat having a stroke.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-25563342

    I Hope he gets well soon.

  17. It is, indeed, concerning news. I’m sure all of us, irrespective of our location on the political compass, wish him well.

  18. Very sorry to hear about this. I do hope Mr Goggins recovers and soon. It’s been a very mixed day, since I am sad at hearing about the death of John Fortune as well, but am thrilled that a 92-year-old lady I know has been awarded the MBE after a campaign I started 2 years ago. Services to music & music education.

  19. Paul Goggins has sadly passed away

  20. Very sad news of Paul Goggins’ death. My condolences go out to his family.

    I suppose this means another by-election sooner rather than later.

  21. I will pray hard Mr Goggins’s family and can only pray that the next few months may bring them some hope and peace. His wife, Wyn, is a dear friend and I know that she wll be devastated, along with their three lads.
    A thoroughly decent man who entered politics out of a sense that he might be able to improve the lot of others (as he did in his previous work running Church Action on Poverty), his example would be good for others to follow.
    I would request a few days moratorium on discussing the future of the seat.

  22. ‘A thoroughly decent man who entered politics out of a sense that he might be able to improve the lot of others ‘

    Which puts him in a minority when it comes ti most of today’s MPs

    RIP

  23. Very sad news. The tributes to him do seem very sincere and I hope that brings his family some small comfort as this time.

    I agree with CatholicLeft RE: calling any future by-election result for a few days. I always found it a bit ghoulish to discuss such matters straight after an MP passes away and this time is no different.

  24. Once upon a time the Lib Dems used to get very excited at news like this…less so now perhaps

  25. Yes, let’s hold off talking about a by-election for a few days. I agree it’s rather macabre to do otherwise.

  26. “Which puts him in a minority when it comes ti most of today’s MPs”.

    I don’t believe that. I reckon a majority of MPs enter the profession because they want to make what they see as a positive difference to the world around them. There are easier ways to become famous or make a few quid than spending time on the treadmill that might eventually lead to election to parliament.

  27. Unfortunately, for the sort of people who increasingly want to become MPs, I don’t think that is necessarily true. For mediocre but power-hungry individuals, an MP’s job is a pretty attractive prospect I think. MEP even better of course.

  28. I agree with Kieran. Although not all MPs are exactly angels, the fact is if you’ve primarily motivated by self-enrichment, there are better places for that than politics, which is an arena always under the ever-watchful eye of the public, and which – even with the expenses scandal considered – pays pittance compared to the private sector.

  29. ‘I agree with Kieran. Although not all MPs are exactly angels, the fact is if you’ve primarily motivated by self-enrichment’

    I don’t think it is necessarily self-enrichment – more a desire to have power – and as Runnymead says, being an MP or MEP must be an attrractive prospect for those who seek it

    Most MPs are rich men before they enter Parliament – and it’s not as if being an MP is a barr to earning lots of money from outside interests – think of all the money MPs make from being patrons, directors etc to a whole host of different businesses and corporations

    There certainly was a time when people became MPs because they wanted to give something back to their country, but such MPs are certainly in a minority now, hence it’s a sad when one of the few who does fall into that category passes away

  30. And of course in the case of people like Blair, there are vast sums to be earned after ceasing to be an MP. That is something that didn’t happen to the same degree a generation or two ago.

  31. It’s certainly interesting that protocol off- and on-line about discussing the party political consequences in circumstances like this has largely been observed.

    I came home today to find that editors had created a by-election article on Wikipedia. I can understand the need for ‘completeness’ to a degree, but will wait until a more appropriate time before entering into such discussions here or elsewhere

  32. Now I remember where I’ve seen your name before, doktorb! I remember visiting the Feltham and Heston by-election page, and your name there caught my eye because I remember you had to try and revere some block you’d put on the article’s name referring to a by-election in 2011. I remember you very confidently saying there that it wouldn’t be in 2011. 😛 Then again, I certainly didn’t think it would be either.

  33. Tim Jones – it’s often said, but is untrue that most MPs are rich men before they enter Parliament. They are by the time their Wills are published however! Paul Goggins was rare in that he was a nice man AND an MP.

  34. I’m leaving the current article well alone, nothing’s needed right now.

  35. Very sorry to hear of Paul Goggins’s death. Sadly however it was not surprising after such a serious illness, mercifully short.

  36. Yes, I’m also sad to hear of Paul Goggins’ death. He was a good man.

  37. I wonder whether UKIP might not spring a surprise here. UKIP+BNP was nearly 8% of the vote in 2010 and by-election turnouts in this kind of seat are almost always very low. What do UKIP posters such as Pete and Myth11 think? (I don’t think we need to bother asking 111’s opinion)

  38. I was extremely sad to hear of Paul Goggins’ death.

    He was an assiduous and committed constituency MP who was obviously well-liked by many in the seat and who will be sorely missed. His 16 years of service to the House of Commons will never be forgotten. R.I.P. Paul.

  39. HH – Yes I think UKIP could do quite well here. I should have thought Chris Cassidy who was our candidate at the Manchester Central by-election would be a likley candidate as he is based here and is I believe a Ringway parish councillor

  40. Thank you Pete. This is a WWC seat which Labour appear to have neglected for decades. It’s the kind of place where the Romanian / Bulgarian issue might sway a lot of votes. There’s a high, very squeezable, Tory and Lib Dem vote. I wouldn’t be at all surprised personally if UKIP got 30% plus. Do you agree?

  41. I hope there will be a respectful period of mouring for Paul Goggins before by-election machines start rolling.

    It has to be statistically remarkable that whilst Labour hold 257 of 650 commons seats (39.5%), 13 of the 17 by-elections in this parliament so far (including Wythenshawe & Sale East) have been in Labour held seats (76.5%).

    It has to be more difficult for an opposition party to build momentum when so few by-elections take place in governing party seats.

  42. The by-elections in this Parliament have disproportionately been in Labour seats.

    In comparison, the 97-01 Parliamentary term (New Labour’s first term in office) seemed more balanced between the parties.

  43. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised personally if UKIP got 30% plus. Do you agree?”

    I’d be pretty surprised to be honest – over 20% would be decent though, and seems achievable.

  44. I agree with that

  45. yes me too. Labour are quite well-organized in Manchester & won’t be taking as many chances as some think; they know that UKIP will be working hard & there will be plenty of people on the ground to try & counteract them.

  46. UKIP won’t get 30% here, 20 something % in the by-election I would imagine.

  47. “The by-elections in this Parliament have disproportionately been in Labour seats.”

    That makes quite a lot of sense – because Labour had so many elected in 1997/2001, they’ve got a lot of incumbents who are getting on a bit. The Tories, many of whose MPs were elected in 2005/2010, would I imagine have a younger parliamentary party less prone to death or retirement.

  48. Also, an incredible number of Labour MPs have been sent to jail!

  49. I always thought it a bit unfair the tories ended up with as much blame as labour re the expenses scandal. The really criminally dodgy dealing were almost exclusively in that party rather than ours.

  50. I still don’t want to talk about a by-election so soon after his death, but since the talk has already started, I’ll just say that I plan after the weekend to publish some expanded data from my 2012 local election tabulations at the top of the page here. Should give us abit more to chew over.

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