Wythenshawe & Sale East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11124 (25.7%)
Labour: 21693 (50.1%)
Lib Dem: 1927 (4.5%)
Green: 1658 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6354 (14.7%)
TUSC: 215 (0.5%)
Loony: 292 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 10569 (24.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Manchester council area and part of the Trafford council area.

Main population centres: Wythenshawe, Sale.

Profile: The seat is mostly made up of the huge inter-war council estate of Wythenshawe, built to house the overspill population of Manchester and one of the largest council estates in the country. While some properties have been bought by tenants through the right to buy in 2001 almost 40% of the seat remained as social housing. As well as Wythenshawe the seat contains the eastern part of the more affluent suburb of Sale. Manchester Airport is situated in the south of the constitutency.

Politics: While there is some Conservative presence in Sale, Wythenshawe itself is overwhelmingly Labour and makes this a safe Labour seat, held with large majorities since its creation in 1997. There was a by-election here in the last Parliament following the death of Paul Goggins, resulting in an easy Labour hold.


Current MP
PAUL GOGGINS (Labour) Born 1953, Manchester. Educated at St Bede's College and Birmingham Polytechnic. Former director of Church Action on Poverty. Salford councillor 1990-1998. First elected as MP for Wythenshawe and Sale East in 1997. PPS to John Denham 1998-2000, PPS to David Blunkett 2000-2003, Junior minister at the Home office 2003-2006, junior minister Northern Ireland office 2006-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10412 (26%)
Lab: 17987 (44%)
LDem: 9107 (22%)
BNP: 1572 (4%)
Oth: 1673 (4%)
MAJ: 7575 (19%)
2005
Con: 8051 (22%)
Lab: 18878 (52%)
LDem: 7766 (21%)
UKIP: 1120 (3%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 10827 (30%)
2001
Con: 8424 (24%)
Lab: 21032 (60%)
LDem: 4320 (12%)
GRN: 869 (2%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 12608 (36%)
1997
Con: 11429 (25%)
Lab: 26448 (58%)
LDem: 5639 (12%)
Oth: 957 (2%)
MAJ: 15019 (33%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
FIONA GREEN (Conservative)
MIKE KANE (Labour) See above.
VICTOR CHAMBERLAIN (Liberal Democrat)
LEE CLAYTON (UKIP) Born 1977, Wythenshawe. Educated at Poundswick High School. Security consultant and former paratrooper.
JESSICA MAYO (Green)
LYNN WORTHINGTON (TUSC)
JOHNNY DISCO (Loony) , real name John Horner.
Links
Comments - 211 Responses on “Wythenshawe & Sale East”
  1. The parties who actually count here (or will count most probably) have already made their selection. I’m going with a comfortable Labour hold, and UKIP second based largely on their candidate who seems very good on paper. A guy like John Bickley would work wonders for Labour’s image (not necessarily the same views, but working background). He was once a Labour supporter.

    I think the Lib Dems will just about hold their deposit.

  2. Dalek – not sure much of the Wythenshawe council estate had been built at that time.

  3. I think it was mostly built by then. Parts of the estate were built in the 1930s but most I think in the 1950s.
    Dalek I posted notional results for this seat on page 2

  4. Cllr Mary di Mauro selected as LD candidate for the by-election.

  5. Apparently the Raving Loonies have found their candidate for this by-election as well-Captain Chamlington-Smythe, who I have never heard of; I honestly thought that it would be The Flying Brick (aka Nick Delves). Just thought it would be a nice piece of amusing news for this otherwise somewhat predictable by-election 😉

  6. Think the Greens aren’t going to make it. Their deadline has passed without comment.

    Maybe TUSC is the only group left?

  7. My son is working in the Labour office for Wythenshwe helping with the campaign. Labour expected a very safe hold possibly with a minor loss of 1-2% mainly to UKIP. But it was expected most UKIP votes would be at expense of Tories.

    However, early doorstep canvassing ( although not scientific ) is showing some slight concern with a higher than expected swing towards UKIP from Labour supporters.

    More concerning is that Lord Ashcroft first poll is expect on Wed / Thur 6th Feb which may underline this and give UKIP a boost and media coverage.

    Earl days, but not the walk in the park they are expecting.

    As for me, well the Liberals ain’t got a chance so I will keep my views to myself.

  8. Early doorstep canvassing always causes a panic. Labour’s greater local knowledge and party machine “should” see them safely home and the Tories will work hard as well.

  9. Like CL said, early canvassing returns can be a kick up the backside for campaigners. I expect however that if there is still concern after a few more days of this, I’ll be hearing it through the grapevine. Most of the time, word travels on whether a campaign is going well or not.

  10. The Greens have selected Nigel Woodcock – a very good local candidate, ex Labour and union rep. They have a decent campaign planned. Probably get a couple of percent but may get some of the ex-liberal vote. Labour likely to lose quite a few votes to UKIP and a low turnout makes this slightly unpredictable but Labour likely to win by a long neck

  11. Had East Sale remained in Altrincham & Sale in 1997 would it have fallen to Labour in 1997 and 2001?

  12. No it would actually have returned a slightly larger Tory majority. To be precise the parts of ‘Sale East’ which were previously in Altrincham & Sale were Brooklands and Sale Moor which more or less cancel each other out. The Priory ward was in Davyhulme. The other two Sale wards which were previously in Davyhulme (Mersey St Marys and St Martins) and which were added to Altrincham & Sale West were on balance more strongly Labour than the two wards which departed

  13. Pete- quite. Hence why the Conservatives’ notional % majority in Altrincham and Sale West going in to 1997 was lower than the one they had in Altrincham and Sale in 1992. IIRC, the notional Conservative lead over Labour in Altrincham and Sale West was 28% going into 1997.

  14. Here are the 1992 notionals for Altrincham and Sale West, courtesy of Andy JS’ spreadhseet.

    Con 30,343 (54.5%)
    Lab 14,727 (26.4%)
    LD 10,261 (18.4%)
    Oth 366 (0.7%)

    TOTAL 55,697

    The actual 1992 result in Altrincham and Sale was:

    Con 29,066 (54.7%)
    Lab 12,275 (23.1%)
    LD 11,601 (21.8%)
    Natural Law 212 (0.4%)

  15. A poster on Political Betting reports 3 leaflets from UKIP, 1 each from Conservatives and Labour.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/211459/#Comment_211459

  16. Dave B – yes, Farage said on BBC NW News that 17,000 postal votes go out tomorrow and so UKIP are attempting to visit as many as possible. Btw, there’s a separate W&SE By-election page on here.

  17. Could somebody post a link to the by-election page as I am not finding it on this site?

  18. Frederic, it is on the right hand side of the page, under byelections.

  19. Thanks, Catholicleft

  20. My prediction for the by-election:

    Lab: 11,923 (54.1%)
    UKIP: 4,572 (20.7%)
    Con: 3,630 (16.5%)
    LD: 1,084 (4.9%)
    BNP: 489 (2.2%)
    Green: 244 (1.1%)
    Loony: 115 (0.5%)

    Lab, maj: 7,351 (33.3%)

    Changes:

    Lab: +10.0%
    UKIP: +17.3%
    Con: -9.1%
    LD: -17.4%
    BNP: -1.7%

  21. Actually there is a thread dedicated to the by-election. There you will able to read my incisive and expert commentary on…

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-by-election/#comments

  22. Yes, it seems to have been somewhat taken over by good-natured banter about The Royle Family.

  23. Daniel Critchlow chosen for Cons for this seat for 2015 according to

    http://www.conservatives.com/People/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates.aspx

    – was candidate in Bye election earlier this year.
    BR

  24. Thanks Blake. It’s often difficult to get information about candidates in seats where by-elections have taken place.

    For example I’m still waiting for official conformation that the current Labour MP for Corby will be standing in 2010.

  25. Auto-correct stinks.

  26. And in other news, Andy JS invents time machine.

  27. Blake – the Rev has obviously been dumped. Tories have today selected Fiona Green here for the General Election. She certainly sounds more formidable than the vicar. She’s a solicitor with experience in combating fraud, has 2 children and her husband is a house husband while she works full-time and has set up her own business.

  28. Lancs Observer, Rev is standing in Bury South

  29. Labour Hold. 12,000 majority.

  30. Gosh Shaun, you’re really going for the hard ones.

  31. Boundary changes in 1983 IIRC gave the Tories about 7 extra seats in Greater Manchester, by moving fairly small margins around.
    So it is also true that all the above seats had they existed would have been Tory in 1979 aswell.

  32. CE – the interesting thing is that the Tories’ City Seats Initiatives failed spectacularly by parachuting in non-locals to stand both as PPCs and in the Locals.

    In Liverpool their Mayoral candidate lost his deposit only polling 4% in 2012 and polled far fewer votes than the Tories in the City Locals on the same day. He was from St Helens. His vote fell further to just 3% last year!

    In Manchester the Manc Tories weren’t allowed to be in charge of Brooklands ward even though its a Manchester ward.

    Indeed they wasted their time on the City Centre ward when they just missed out on Brooklands by 100 votes in 2008 from memory.

    The Manc Tories were essentially the LGBTory clique that is now under investigation following the arrest of Cllr Matt Sephton. Indeed a few of the Trafford lot were the Manc Cons in the 2008 period onwards. It seems that they must have all moved to Trafford 2 or 3 years ago. Presumably to find winnable wards.

  33. Con Estimate
    To add to your hypothesis the Liverpool Tories would be very competitive in the Church ward in Liverpool under STV, I know their vote at present is derisory but that’s almost certainly due to large scale tactical voting for the Lib Dems, statistically Church is the wealthiest and second oldest ward in Liverpool, if tactical voting wasn’t an issue they’d have a good shot.

    As to why the Tories won’t introduce any form of PR into these city deals though is cos it sets a precedent that “PR is good” which the Tories do not want to set. After the DUP they are the most anti electoral reform party in the house (due to being one of the biggest beneficiaries of FPTP) and with Labs slow and continuing conversion to PR over the past year the Tories are really the last barrier to it. So sadly the likelihood of us getting a form of PR in the devolution packages is next to zero unless your party commit to it at Westminster as well.

  34. Less so Childwall than in days past, the area isn’t what it once was.

  35. Did she? I thought she lived in Woolton?

  36. The Cavern? Lol that’s the club the Beatles first played in, it isn’t in Childwall its in the city centre and its still there though obviously today its a big “Beatles Experience” tourist trap today.

  37. Shouldn’t pay too much heed to stereotypes, otherwise I’d assume by extension of you being a Young Tory your probably aristocratic, inbred and weird (and I’m assuming your not???)

    As is Liverpool these days actually has a lower crime rate than comparatively sized large urban areas. I also wonder what people think we want with their tyres? Being real for a min your more likely to get your whole car jacked but that’s another issue entirely.

  38. So long as you don’t bring a copy of the Sun you’ll be welcome, You can try and help McVey get back into parliament and hell Liverpool Uni has a pretty big Conservative association, I should know since enough of them where gloating at our uni’s election night event and a full scale riot almost erupted as the nigh went on…ah memories “looks wistfully into the distance”

  39. As I always say Maxim never say never especially in these tumultuous times

  40. Yes, Edwina grew up in the Jewish area of Childwall.

  41. ‘The bright colours hurt my eyes’. Eh?

  42. Apparently there has been an explosion at Manchester Airport.

  43. No details as of yet. Breaking on BBC news.

  44. Another one? Or the arena one misreported as the airport?

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