Wythenshawe    and    Sale    East    By election    2014

The by-election was caused by the death of Paul Goggins, who died on the 7th January 2014 after suffering a brain haemorrhage while out running in December 2013. The by-election was held on 13th February during the middle of the 2014 floods and resulted in Labour holding the seat with an increased majority. UKIP took second place and the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit.

Result
Mike Kane (Labour) 13261 55.3% (+11.2%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 4301 18.0% (+14.5)
Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) 3479 14.5% (-11.0%)
Mary di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) 1176 4.9% (-17.4%)
Nigel Woodcock (Green) 748 3.1% (n/a)
Eddy O'Sullivan (BNP) 708 3.0% (-0.9%)
Capt Chaplington-Smythe (Loony) 288 1.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 8960 37.4% (+18.8%)
Turnout 28.2% (-26.1%)
Candidates
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Mike Kane (Labour) Former teacher. Former Manchester councillor
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Mary Di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) Manchester councillor
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Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) Born in Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar
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John Bickley (UKIP) Born 1953. Businessman
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Nigel Woodcock (Green) Higher education lecturer
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Edward O'Sullivan (BNP) Driving teacher and former army technician. Contested North West region 2009 European election, Salford mayoral election 2012
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Captain Chaplington Smythe (Loony) Real name Mark Chapman
Comments - 269 Responses on “Wythenshawe and Sale East By Election”
  1. I have a feeling I may have slightly underestimated UKIP’s percentage and overestimated the Tories but, I’m standing by my original prediction.

  2. Looking really good at the count.
    Very excriting day in the seat. Fantastic mood on the ground
    My prediction?

    Lib Dem 11,000
    Labour 7,000
    UKIP 3,000
    Con 950
    Others 800

    Lib Dem GAIN

  3. Stand by my result of a week back –
    Labour: 12,350 53%ish
    UkIP 4,200 18%
    Conservatives: 3,052 13% (likely less)
    Greens 1,200 5.%
    Lib Dems 1,119 5%
    BNP 1118 5%
    MRL 231 1%

  4. I’d be amazed if the Greens beat the LDs.

  5. Scanning the locl airwaves for breaking news but cant find any local station covering it 🙁

    My guess:
    Lab 53
    UKIP 23
    Con 14
    LD 5
    Green 2
    BNP 2
    Oth 1

  6. BBC speculating from the count that UKIP are only narrowly ahead of the Tories in 2nd place, and a very comfortable Labour hold.

  7. TV coverage won’t really pick up again until they’re near announcing the results.

  8. manchester evening news: http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-wythenshawe-sale-east-by-election-6708027

    Slow going – 25% turnout – 60% postal. Labour 50% UKIp 25 Tory 15 suggested but they sound a bit clueless

  9. Turnout 28.24%

  10. Turnout offically 28.4%. No belief in electoral politics wins by a landslide. Should bring it in – under 50% no one elected and do it yourselves – would be interesting 650 independent republics

  11. Postal votes apparently accounted for over 40% of the turnout.

  12. That works out at 24,024, with postal votes accounting for over 40% of the vote.

    12.41am
    Turnout was 28pc. That broke down as postal – 10141 and ballot box – 13883.

  13. Rumours that LDs are fractionally below 5%.

  14. Sky news thinks they have asked for a recount…!

  15. Result’s delayed because the Liberal Democrats called for a recount. Goes without saying because they want to save their deposit.

  16. Sky News is probably your best bet for catching the declaration later. I’ve found Minder in the meantime.

  17. This is a rather sad photo of the Lib Dems hunting for 20 votes they need to save their deposit. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BgZozIEIYAAUF3K.jpg

    I might have voted for them if they’d have given me £25…

  18. Wythenshawe Result:
    LAB – 55.5% (+11.1)
    UKIP – 18.0% (+14.5)
    CON – 14.3% (-11.5)
    LDem – 4.9% (-17.6)
    GRN – 3.1% (+3.1)
    OTH – 4.2%

  19. Errrrrrrr……..

    I have reason to believe that earlier today one of my girlfriends logged in under my name and posted a prediction which I don’t agree with.

    Here’s my own prediction…

    Lab 55%
    Ukip 18%
    Con 14%
    Lib Dem 5%
    Greens 3%

  20. Hang on Robin Hood, I thought you kept telling us it would be a lot closer than most of our predictions.

    I fluked the LD percentage in my prediction: I said it would 4.91% and that’s exactly what it was. Overestimated UKIP slightly though.

  21. I did think the Liberal Democrats would retain their deposit, albeit narrowly. As far as I’m concerned, this is evidence that they haven’t really made up ground in Manchester since what should be their absolute nadir in 2011/2012. Another nail in the coffin – if the coffin weren’t nailed enough already – for Leech in Withington.

  22. My prediction from a couple of days ago:

    “Labour 50-60%, UKIP 10-20%, Tory 8-15%, LD 2-6%, GRN 0-3%, BNP <2%, OMRLP <1%"

    Pretty pleased with that. A whisker off with the BNP and Greens.

  23. No offence, but I hardly call that a prediction. A prediction with a range of 10% is not a prediction.

  24. It’s easy to be right when you’re vague 😉

  25. Lol.

  26. Not bad going for Labour really, and Farage is in danger of looking like a bad loser. Considering the awful weather – some residents had serious structural damage to their homes, and cars destroyed, one such resident being shown on the news – I guess the turnout isn’t too disastrous. If Labour can organize the postal vote this well in other areas it could make a real difference come the general election – in years past the Conservatives were much better at it than us.

  27. Labour held 74% of their 2010 votes compared to 66% in the South Shields by-election.

  28. To add to Mrnameless’s result post, the BNP also polled 3% and the MRLP 1%.

  29. A bracing fact for the LDs is that their candidate polled less than half the number of votes she received standing in the Northenden ward in May 2010: 1,176 vs 2,503 (albeit with a general election turnout):

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester_Council_election,_2010#Northenden

  30. Probably just as well for UKIP that the Euro elections are soon; I wonder if their novelty (I know they’ve been around a while really, but you know what I mean) is starting to wear off a little. The Euro elections could give them a boost, but they could do with it.

  31. It’s amazing that ukip could get 2nd with 18% and will probably be disappointed. It’s shows how far they have come. A great labour result though, no sign of many labour> ukip switches despite ramping.

  32. My prediction

    Lab 55
    UKIP 19
    Con 15
    LD 7
    BNP 2
    Green 2
    Loony 0

    Wasn’t too shabby.

  33. And there was me thinking I was underestimating UKIP support by putting them on 20%. Labour have done slightly better than I first thought by getting 55%, I think the Tory percentage is roughly what most if us expected them to get (even though I predicted them to get 18%) and I’m not surprised that the Lib Dems only just failed to keep their deposit.

    I did also predict that UKIP would fail to get half the Labour vote, but I didn’t think they’d fall this far short. I guess that’s evidence if how well Labour organised their postal vote strategy.

    It’ll be interesting to see what the media makes of UKIP’s performance. They easily won second places, (something that we didn’t know for certain would happen at the start of the campaign), but they fell short of most people expectations in terms of percentage vote share.

  34. By the way, my prediction was;

    Labour 46%
    UKIP 20%
    Conservative 18%
    Lib Dem 6%
    Green 5%
    BNP 4%
    Loony 1%

    Also supposed the Greens didn’t save their deposit. Shows there’s not much proof in the theory that they’re no acting as a depository for left wing anti-Labour protest votes that the Lib Dens used to pick up. That may be the case in more intellectual seats, but not in WWC areas like this.

  35. I had expected UKIP to do much better, and well done to those who correctly predicted they would be under 20%. I wonder whether their lacklustre performance relative to Rotherham etc reflects the fact that they are naturally stronger on the eastern side of the north, or a softening of their popularity nationally.

  36. I have to say I am surprised that UKIP didn’t do better.

    But I always thought it was likely that Labour would win this by well over 30%. I wasn’t too far off with the winning margin in my prediction, but not with the top two percentages. I got the Lib Dems pretty much spot on.

  37. Here’s my take on Farage’s rather sour reception of the result, in limerick form (I apologize for this being against the comments policy!):

    Farage, looking like a bad loser
    Seems to think postal votes are a ruse, A
    Ploy just to help Labour.
    Look, do us a favour,
    And bugger off back to your boozer.

  38. This is a good result for Labour. A little disappointed UKIP didn’t do better here though.

    I have to admit I’m not a fan of mass postal voting as I think its more open to voter fraud but I do think there are instances where it is a handy tool such as for the elderly, sick or those suffering from a natural disaster.

    If parties want people to vote for them they should knock on doors and give people a reason to stroll down to the polling station and cast their vote.

  39. I am inclined to agree. I personally do not think that convenience or being away on business/holiday is a good enough reason to be able to vote by post. It should be restricted to the elderly, disabled and infirm. I think Nigel Farage has a point when he says that political parties getting involved with delivering/picking up postal votes is completely inappropriate and can on occasion be construed as intimidation of voters.

    Mass postal voting is changing the dynamic of elections for the worse, especially by-elections. The campaign, certainly the latter stages, no longer matters much if the dominant party locally can flex its organisational muscles and get their core vote out by post as soon as the election is called.

  40. Re: Postal voting – I’m of the opinion too that postal votes should only be open to those who are 100% unable to get to the ballot box on the day.

    But, them’s the rules, and all must abide by them.

  41. I don’t agree. I think democracy should be made as easy as possible. I’d like to see online voting in due course.

  42. The idea that mass postal voting changes the dynamic of elections is true to an extent, but it just means that all parties have to change the way that they campaign in non-election periods.

    Obviously where parties have a strong core support and good postal vote coverage then they can in theory get those people to vote early before they are potentially influenced by other parties’ campaigns, but surely the answer to that would be for smaller parties to compete on those terms, by campaigning outside of election periods and building up their own postal vote network and core support, rather than waiting for an election to be called.

    Personally I have always physically voted at a polling station (apart from once when I was on holiday and gave a proxy vote to my brother) but I am all for any practical methods of voting.

  43. My prediction was rather accurate, apart from a slight overestimation of the UKIP vote (although 18% is still a good vote for them in a safe Labour seat), and also, the Raving Loonies’ Captain Chaplington-Smythe got 1.2% not <1%, with a rather respectable (by joke party standards) 288 votes. My Green, Con and Lib Dem predictions were at least accurate to the nearest percent, although the BNP's vote did not collapse as much as I think it would. I would like to thank all the Green campaigners for their efforts in this by-election, of course.

  44. I think mass postal voting is necessary and am happy to give up some of the campaign dynamics for the sake of keeping turnout at acceptable levels. The parties should certainly not get involved with picking up postal votes, though. Possibly the campaign time should be extended such that postal votes are delivered only with or after election literature from multiple candidates, though that would be hell to implement.

    Very close and extremely gutting for the Liberals to lose yet another deposit – one suspects they just aren’t trying very hard in terms of spending etc on a lot of these by-elections as they know the result will be bad and keeping the limelight off it is the best they can hope for.

  45. “for the sake of keeping turnout at acceptable levels”

    Maybe if the three main parties actually had something of interest to say and were honest then people would walk to the polling stations off their own backs….

  46. I would rather have a low turnout than a voting system of compromised integrity.

    It is not a party political issue. In many areas postal voting is disproportionately used by Conservative voters, who are more likely to be elderly or travelling overseas.

  47. I agree HH et al, there are too many cases of fraud in proxy and postal voting. Incidentally, the new young gay leader of Trafford Council just got a mention. I assumed it was that short jolly camp guy who stood for the Tories in the last Manc by-election, but I’ve just checked and Matthew Sephton failed to win a ward in Trafford, so it must be another young diminutive Tory. I doubt it had any impact on the campaign. Does anyone know why the Tories changed their Trafford leader in Feb?

  48. I agree with James Baillie. I think in a way the huge boost in postal voting has taken some of the excitement away from election day, but it has meant that the catastrophic decline in turnout we saw particularly in 2001 has at least partly gone into reverse, though not yet fully. It shouldn’t be impossible to prevent representatives of political parties from collecting, or overseeing, postal votes – it’s done efficiently enough in many boroughs – and I agree that it is most important that such a practice should not be allowed.

  49. I wonder though whether the decline in turnout in 2001 was linked more to the incredibly boring election in terms of dynamic (was obvious pretty much throughout there would be little change to the status quo), while 2005 and certainly 2010 had more at stake in terms of jockeying for position.

    I’m not sure what proportion of people utilising postal votes are people who would have voted anyway but just found it more convenient.

    I’d actually resist this in any case on the grounds that I feel a little sense of pride and civic duty in marching up to the polling station and casting my vote.

  50. There’s something satisfying about showing up at the crack of dawn and giving your party an early lead of one. I made it into the polling station at 7:02AM at the local elections.

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