Wythenshawe    and    Sale    East    By election    2014

The by-election was caused by the death of Paul Goggins, who died on the 7th January 2014 after suffering a brain haemorrhage while out running in December 2013. The by-election was held on 13th February during the middle of the 2014 floods and resulted in Labour holding the seat with an increased majority. UKIP took second place and the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit.

Result
Mike Kane (Labour) 13261 55.3% (+11.2%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 4301 18.0% (+14.5)
Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) 3479 14.5% (-11.0%)
Mary di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) 1176 4.9% (-17.4%)
Nigel Woodcock (Green) 748 3.1% (n/a)
Eddy O'Sullivan (BNP) 708 3.0% (-0.9%)
Capt Chaplington-Smythe (Loony) 288 1.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 8960 37.4% (+18.8%)
Turnout 28.2% (-26.1%)
Candidates
portrait
Mike Kane (Labour) Former teacher. Former Manchester councillor
portrait
Mary Di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) Manchester councillor
portrait
Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) Born in Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar
portrait
John Bickley (UKIP) Born 1953. Businessman
portrait
Nigel Woodcock (Green) Higher education lecturer
portrait
Edward O'Sullivan (BNP) Driving teacher and former army technician. Contested North West region 2009 European election, Salford mayoral election 2012
portrait
Captain Chaplington Smythe (Loony) Real name Mark Chapman
Comments - 269 Responses on “Wythenshawe and Sale East By Election”
  1. I cannot disagree with any of that Barnaby.

  2. I remember a light hearted discussion we had on the Rugby thread a while ago about how a certain Mr & Mrs Bucket of that constituency cast their votes.

    Since another BBC sit-com is set in this constituency, I wonder how Mr & Mrs Royal will be voting tomorrow?

    My guess is that Jim can’t be bothered to vote and will have had a rant about how they’re all as bad as each other, Barbara will pop into the polling station on her way to the shops and vote Labour cus that’s what she’s always done, and Dave and Denise are probably blissfully unaware that a by election is even going on.

  3. I think that’s probably right.

    The Royle Family was great in its heyday but it’s become another one of those old shows the BBC can’t help milking “one last time” just for the ratings. A kind of latter day Only Fools and Horses.

    The Christmas special when Nana died was good, all the others since then have been a steaming pile of shite, as Jim Royle might say.

  4. I thought the Royle family lived in Denton

  5. Like Aam I thought it was south Manchester, though could be wrong. A Touch of Frost is set in a fictional Denton.

  6. Maybe that’s what I’m confusing it with although I’ve never watched a Touch of Frost

  7. @MrNameLess.
    Well the LibDems got 22% in 2010. I know they have taken a hammering with coalition and tuition fees. But I reasoned what is the core vote of LDs, although I must admit I am very surprised that LD got 5% in the poll. Perhaps I have vastly underestimated the fall in LD vote. But I would argue at the moment that LDs are ‘shy’ when it comes to poll question. Was the poll telephone, face to face on the street or what format?

    FWIW the background of white is what you get if you opt to be Plaid Cymru – albeit I am in a far eastern county of England. So it is an ‘outsider’ protest vote if you like!

    BR

  8. I just remember hearing once that it was supposed to be set in Wythenshawe. Pete, they did mention in one of the earlier episodes that Nana lives not far from Droylesdon, so possible Denton.

    I shed a tear in the episode where Nana died mainly because it reminded me of the circumstances of how my own Grandmother died. My favourite episode was the 2009 Christmas special where they go on holiday to Prestatyn, but the 2 specials since then have been rubbish IMHO.

    The reason I found the earlier episodes so funny was because some of the characters reminded me of members of my own extended family (I grew up on the council estate in Wolverhampton by the way) and the story lines were about believable everyday situations for working class families. But the last 2 episodes haven’t been that realistic.

  9. I seem to remember just having a vague sense that it was somewhere in Tameside rather than Manchester itself and perhaps the mention of Droyleden was the reason for that.

    “I grew up on the council estate in Wolverhampton by the way”

    Is there only one council estate in Wolverhampton? 😉

  10. “My favourite episode was the 2009 Christmas special where they go on holiday to Prestatyn, but the 2 specials since then have been rubbish IMHO.”

    What ruined the 2009 special was the ridiculous idea that Jim and Barbara have been married for 50 years. In the series 10 years earlier, it is mentioned that they have been married something like 25-30 years, making it a much more realistic 35-40 years together by 2009.

    This is not the only stupid discontinuity to affect the show. In the first series, Dave’s dad is described as a workshy layabout with a bad leg. Then when he is introduced in one of the more recent specials he is seen as an annoying middle class type with a bow tie. Careless and not at all true to the early episodes, which were really good and an accurate portrayal of people that we all know.

  11. There’s a couple of references in earlier episodes to one of Nana’s friends living in Gatley and Antony’s girlfriend living in Altrincham, so Wythenshawe would be a logical place for it to be set.

    I grew up in Wednesfield from 73-85 and after some time living in the West Country I lived in Bushbury from 90-95.

  12. HH, if the 2009 special had been for their 40th anniversary it would have been more realistic.

    In the first series in 1998, Denise stated her age as 26, so if she was born in 1972, why would Jim and Barbara have waited 13 years before having their first child, and another 11 before having their 2nd (Antony’s age was stated as 15 in 1998). That was very unusual for young couples back then.

    But that’s why it’s gone downhill. In the later episodes Cash and Aherne forgot the shoes original purpose; funny but realist portrayals or working class life. Although to other people from more affluent backgrounds it’s a glimpse of how the other side live. To my wife’s family for instance, doing things like buying knock off clothes from a door step salesman, betting money on the antiques roadshow or not decorating your house since the 70’s is something you’d never dream of doing.

  13. My prediction:

    Lab: 11,923 (54.1%)
    UKIP: 4,572 (20.7%)
    Con: 3,630 (16.5%)
    LD: 1,084 (4.9%)
    BNP: 489 (2.2%)
    Green: 244 (1.1%)
    Loony: 115 (0.5%)

    Lab, maj: 7,351 (33.3%)

    Changes:

    Lab: +10.0%
    UKIP: +17.3%
    Con: -9.1%
    LD: -17.4%
    BNP: -1.7%

  14. I liked the Christmas special when the bests made Christmas dinner – if only for the star turn by Tom Courtney as Daivd Senior.
    I thought the Prestatyn one was the barrel being scraped but the Queen of Sheba makes me cry whenever I see it.
    It always assumed it was set in East Manchester because of the way they spoke about Droylesden and the accents, the weird Scouse ones aside, are from the Burnage, Heaton Norris side of Manchester.

  15. The Royle Family first series was superb – ” get your coat on Barb” – ” ooh! am i invited to the pub too?” – “no, I’m going to turn the fire off!”
    Also the Queen of Sheba episode. The rest weren’t so good, although even the Prestatyn episode made me laugh when Dave was driving and being directed from the back seat by Jim:-
    “Turn left Dave!’
    “Whose left Jim, mine or yours?”
    “Whatdya mean whose left Dave, my left – your left, everyone’s friggin’ left!’
    Priceless.

  16. I also quite liked the episode where Nana’s friend Elsie died and Nana couldn’t stop going on about which of her persons she was going to keep.

    Nana: Idid take one or two perishable items from her fridge, she would have linked that. You know, a packet of fish fingers, a couple of chops, six bottle of Guinness.

    Jim: That ain’t perishable, you’re a bloody armed vulture you!

    Barbara: Jim!

    Nana: It’s funny Barbara how when you weigh it up, every cloud has a silver lining. I didn’t think I’d get much wear out of this black cardigan.

    Do you think they’ll have a collection for Elsie at the flats?

    Barbara: I’d expect so, they usually do when someone passes away.

    Nana: I hope it’s tonight whilst I’m here.

  17. My prediction for tomorrow (to the nearest integer percentage point):

    LAB: 58%
    UKIP: 21%
    CON: 12%
    LD: 5%
    BNP/GRN/LOONY: 4%

  18. I will take a punt at the 4% for the Others too:

    To the nearest 0.5%

    BNP: 2%
    GRN: 2%
    LOONY: 0.5%

  19. You’re all putting Labour too high and UKIP too low.

    Incidentally, I was amazed to see the notional 1992 figures which Andy JS has posted up on the other Wythenshaw thread. Were the Tories really that far ahead only twenty odd years ago..?

  20. I will post my prediction tomorrow.

  21. ^^^ Please ignore my last comment – Andy JS’s data relates to Altrincham & Sale, not Wythenshawe & Sale East. Apologies.

  22. The 1992 notional result for Wythenshawe & Sale East was as follows:

    Lab: 26,935 (49.5%)
    Con: 18,977 (34.9%)
    LD: 7,869 (14.5%)
    Others: 600 (1.1%)

    Lab maj: 7,958 (14.6%)

  23. Will the count be broadcast/streamed anywhere tomorrow night?

  24. I always thought that The Royle Family and the equally wonderful Early Doors were both set in Stockport.

    Anyhow, my prediction is

    LAB 55
    UKIP 19
    CON 17
    LIB 4
    OTH 5

  25. My estimate – just for fun, I don’t know this constituency at all.

    Lab 57%
    UKIP 17%
    Con 11%
    LD 9%
    Others 6%

  26. mrnameless, I doubt there will be a special program on the by-election, but at the very least BBC News will cover it.

  27. The storms having moved up to the north west, the weather might have a big impact here tomorrow.

    If it keeps people away from the polling stations then Labour’s postal vote operation could well deliver them a very big win.

  28. True H.H. Plus – and how can I phrase this right – are middle-class voters much more likely to come out in bad weather to vote than working-class ones? Because if that’s the case, the Tories must just be hoping there’s a small chance to keep second place, by seeing their middle-class base in Trafford turn out by comparatively greater numbers.

  29. Without postal votes the weather could have made the by-election a fairly close affair because it would have been Labour voters disproportionately staying indoors.

  30. Why just Labour? UKIP’s base is among the working/lower-middle class – the type of voters who’d be more likely to stay indoors. I concede UKIP voters would be more motivated, but even still I think it’s a stretch to say that Labour would really be bearing the brunt alone.

  31. My prediction is:

    Labour 52%
    UKIP 26%
    Con 12%
    LD 4%
    Others 6%

  32. A 25-30% lead for Labour sounds like a fairly realistic at this stage. UKIP winning between a fifth and a quarter of the vote should be a good result for them. Tories in the low to mid 10’s and I think the Lib Dems will keep their deposit, just.

  33. ”The storms having moved up to the north west, the weather might have a big impact here tomorrow.”

    Indeed. Probably for psychological reasons linked to the awful weather last night, although I had to be in for where I work at 9:30 this morning, I felt a bit uneasy and didn’t get out until 9:15 and didn’t get off my bus until about 10:20, not helped by mounting traffic slowing everything down going into Liverpool, though problems at Lime Street station may have had something to do with it. I noticed there was a TV camera taking shots of the station’s exterior, possibly for either North West Tonight or Granada Reports.

  34. Just for reference, the storms have now passed and the Mancunian weather is about as good as you can hope for in February. Clear skies and sunshine.

  35. “I always thought that The Royle Family and the equally wonderful Early Doors were both set in Stockport.”

    I thought that was the case partly with The Royle Family, one snippet from the first series saw Jim and Dave celebrating a “County” win.

  36. Catholicleft & Shankly – apparently The Royle Family is meant to be in East Manchester as are all characters except Twiggy from Lpool & the Irish neighbours. Yes, Frost was in Denton. Great Night Out (that Ricky Tomlinson was also in) was in Stockport. My source is/was an extra and said meant to be isn’t always where they are ie Hollyoaks is meant to be in Chester, but 90% is filmed in Lpool. Incidentally, its dry and sunny today after the 100mph winds of last night.

  37. Yes it is incredible how the weather has since turned around up North…

  38. Manchester CC web site for Wythenshawe & Sale East Parliamentary By Election results should be posted here:-
    http://www.manchester.gov.uk/info/362/elections_and_voting/4981/your_next_election

    Looks as though they will post the electorate figure & spoilt ballots on this page as well.

    BR

  39. Peter Election Follower’s prediction looks best to me – couldn’t improve on it so won’t make a separate prediction.

  40. I agree, that prediction looks about right to me too.

  41. BNP certainly make a lot of noise on the streets with there van and megaphones and nationalist songs on loop to loop. Empty vessels make most noise

  42. Driving a BNP van is like walking around with a sandwich board saying “Please Throw Things At Me”.

    Main question of the night – will the Lib Dems manage fourth place? They have the potential to finish sixth if the Greens and BNP make any kind of effort.

    Finishing behind the OMRLP was what finished off David Owen’s SDP, so here’s hoping Clegg’s got his resignation letter ready just in case.

  43. I think UKIP will get 21% here.

  44. Here is my prediction-
    Labour- 58%
    UKIP- 23%
    Conservative- 10%
    Liberal Democrat- 5%
    BNP- 2%
    Green- 1.5%
    Monster Raving Loony- 0.5%

  45. I think the Lib Dems should hold their deposit.

  46. Likewise I too am expecting them to just hold onto their deposit.

  47. Okay, okay… OKAY!!!!!

    I’ve got the message.

    You’re all desperate for me to once again dazzle you with my unparalleled psephological expertise by informing you of the result…

    Because that way you won’t have to stay up and watch it yourself…

    So here goes…

    Lab 52%
    UKIP 28%
    Tories 10%
    Others 10%

    [By the way, I haven’t got a clue what’s happening on the ground but I’ve heard Bet Fair are giving Labour odds of 110/1].

    Enjoy your early night.

  48. presumably 110-1 on, not against.
    Your prediction isn’t very different from that of Peter Election Follower but we won’t have too long to wait for the actual result I presume.

  49. Wythenshawe declaration number:

    2010: 611
    2005: 66
    2001: 180
    1997: 219
    1992: 127
    1987: 306
    1983: 101
    1979: 297

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)