Wythenshawe    and    Sale    East    By election    2014

The by-election was caused by the death of Paul Goggins, who died on the 7th January 2014 after suffering a brain haemorrhage while out running in December 2013. The by-election was held on 13th February during the middle of the 2014 floods and resulted in Labour holding the seat with an increased majority. UKIP took second place and the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit.

Result
Mike Kane (Labour) 13261 55.3% (+11.2%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 4301 18.0% (+14.5)
Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) 3479 14.5% (-11.0%)
Mary di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) 1176 4.9% (-17.4%)
Nigel Woodcock (Green) 748 3.1% (n/a)
Eddy O'Sullivan (BNP) 708 3.0% (-0.9%)
Capt Chaplington-Smythe (Loony) 288 1.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 8960 37.4% (+18.8%)
Turnout 28.2% (-26.1%)
Candidates
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Mike Kane (Labour) Former teacher. Former Manchester councillor
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Mary Di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) Manchester councillor
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Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) Born in Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar
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John Bickley (UKIP) Born 1953. Businessman
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Nigel Woodcock (Green) Higher education lecturer
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Edward O'Sullivan (BNP) Driving teacher and former army technician. Contested North West region 2009 European election, Salford mayoral election 2012
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Captain Chaplington Smythe (Loony) Real name Mark Chapman
Comments - 269 Responses on “Wythenshawe and Sale East By Election”
  1. UKIP have published their “Manifesto for Manchester”.

    http://www.ukip.org/johnbickley/53-campaigns/1137-manifesto-for-manchester

  2. That’s it?
    So, basically, they applaud the massive advances Manchester has made under the Labour Council and former Labour government (and present Coalition government, though I believe that is less obvious) and then add a remarkably unambitious couple of plans and call it a Manifesto for Manchester.

  3. Let’s be honest, UKIP’s success doesn’t depend upon offering constructive and coherent solutions. It depends upon mobilising anger, so the thinness of this ‘manifesto’ is not terribly surprising.

  4. Has anyone here been out on the campaign trail for any of the parties standing here? It would be interesting to get a report on the situation on the ground.

    I’m considering going up in a week or so. If I do, I’ll let everyone know how it’s going.

  5. I’m not sure UKIP are necessarily alone among the parties either in relying on mobilising anger or in lacking constructive and coherent solutions to the UK’s problems.

  6. The voters are at least being courted.

    “Labour certainly appears up for the challenge. The party has sent shadow Cabinet ministers to the constituency – including party leader Ed Miliband last Friday – to meet voters and local media every day for the past 10 days.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/10617180/Ukip-to-surge-from-fifth-to-second-in-Wythenshawe-by-election-claims-Nigel-Farage.html

  7. John Bickley, Ukip’s candidate, said he had been “stunned” by the number of former Labour voters who had told him that they were going to vote for him next week.

    He said: “I have people walking up to me unsolicited and saying ‘I will vote for you’. These are people I would put a fair chunk of money on would never vote for anyone apart from Labour.

    “There is a sense of betrayl. People are starting to see through the political class. If you look at the frontbench of the Labour party – most of them have never had a real job. Most of them are paper millionaires with fancy houses.”

    ———————-

    I don’t know how long UKIP’s momentum will last for, but this sentiment is a serious issue which Labour top brass has to fundamentally address.

  8. @Neil
    Ed West had a good piece on that “sense of betrayal”

    “The differences between London and the rest of the country now seem to be much larger than the differences between traditional Labour and Tory heartlands, and this gulf of worldview is growing to such an extent that London independence seems slightly less ridiculous an idea with every passing year.

    That is, ultimately, what the Ukip revolt is about and what unites former voters of both major parties ā€“ a protest against the Great Wen.”

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/edwest/2014/02/could-we-move-all-politicians-to-manchester/

  9. I don’t doubt the sentiment exists, but it should go without saying that the UKIP candidate will not be the best authority on how widespread it is. If every candidate who said they were ‘stunned’ by the number of people saying they’ll vote for them actually won, it’d be a very different Parliament right now. Probably dominated by the Lib Dems.

  10. Also, Esther Rantzen would be MP for Luton South.

  11. Well, from a Green perspective it is going okay and we have got one leaflet to everyone and a second to some). I think we will probably let someone else win this one šŸ™‚ UKIP will do pretty well it feels – they may well run Labour very pretty close. Overall though little interest and low turnout to be expected

  12. “UKIP will do pretty well it feels ā€“ they may well run Labour very pretty close.”

    Completely agree, and I said so weeks ago, which prompted a substantial number of comments saying “this isn’t good territory for UKIP” and “I still expect the Tories to come second”.

    I said it then and I’ll say it again – UKIP always outperform expectations in by-elections in very white seats and I’ve little doubt you’re right that they will do so this time.

  13. Lord Ashcroft’s poll is out.

    Lab 61%, Con 14%, LD 5%, UKIP 15%

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/02/with-a-week-to-go-in-wythenshawe-labours-grip-looks-firm/

  14. If Labour got over 50% of the vote in what I think will be a low turnout, I would be pleased. It seems to be a straight sway from Tory to UKIP and Lib Dem to Labour but, as the Ashcroft poll shows, there is the normal churn in there.
    The Lib Dem swing to Labour is mirroring what is happening across Manchester in the local elections.
    I am surprised the UKIP vote is so low, given the fact that they were prompted in this poll.

  15. Yes me too. I’d expect Labour below 60%, and UKIP over 20%, if only slightly. The turnout might achieve that by itself. Tories and Lib Dems look very plausible.

  16. Crikey, that poll is very surprising. I personally don’t doubt Labour will win this, but I don’t expect a blowout quite like that.

  17. Very surprising findings indeed. Even if it is just a snapshot as noted on the Ashcroft page.

  18. I’m not sure how helpful this poll is from a Labour point of view. They may have preferred it to show a slightly closer picture in order to avoid complacency.

  19. ‘Iā€™m not sure how helpful this poll is from a Labour point of view. They may have preferred it to show a slightly closer picture in order to avoid complacency.’

    This.

  20. I did really enjoy the UKIP leaflet with all the mugshots of “Labour’s millionaire MPs”

    Even if it’s a bit hypocritical, given that Farage doesn’t seem short of a bob or two

  21. I think Labour would much rather have that poll than a closer one. You have activists to get the votes out, not polls. Meanwhile the last thing we want is for UKIP to be able to claim momentum.

  22. I do rather think my party would prefer a closer poll. Not too close mind – don’t want UKIP activists and UKIP voters/would-be voters getting the wind in their sails. But all a poll like that does is make some activists complacent, and if word gets round about it makes would-be Labour voters more complacent as well and less likely to actually come out and vote!

    When a result is seen as a foregone conclusion, a party’s base is less likely to come out and vote if they think it’s in the bag. A fair few upsets have happened in history precisely because of that.

  23. *a party’s supporters are less

  24. Out of interest, what was polling like for the Bradford West by-election? The outcome of that was, among other factors, attributed in part to Labour’s local complacency.

  25. Was there a poll at all in Bradford W? I don’t remember one.

  26. I can’t find any indication that a poll was conducted.

  27. There wasn’t one.

  28. MrNameless – yes, I was due to be there tomorrow, but the torrential rain forecast all day means I’ll be there on Monday. A colleague was there today. His ‘feel’ was that it’s closer than the Ashcroft poll, but he only managed to speak to 40 voters. Immigration and fuel prices were the issues mentioned most often.

  29. The most interesting thing from the Ashcroft poll is the section about how much campaigning people have noticed from the parties. Now I’m presuming that Lab/Con/LD/UKIP all took advantage of the freepost and that it will have reached probably 99% of households. Yet only 63% say that Labour (who have likely delivered a number of additional leaflets by hand) have delivered stuff. The Lib Dems were at 18% (they may only have sent out the freepost leaflet) so 1 leaflet is missed by 82% of the population.

    On the doorstep/phone canvassing front which presumable people are more likely to accurately recall the numbers are also interesting with Labour leading UKIP 19-6 on the doorstep and 7-1 on the phone. So Labour likely know where their voters are a lot better than UKIP and probably had some idea before the election was called so this difference will be even wider.

  30. Craig – the Freepost Election Communication is only just being delivered by posties in part of the seat.

  31. This appears so far a pretty dull by-election – largely because Labour called it almost indecently quickly (the Tories have done the same in the past!).

    It seems to me that the major issue left is whether UKIP will just pip the Conservatives to second place, or whether there will be “clear blue water” between the two right-wing parties.

    Realistically, the Conservatives want to be within ten percentage points of UKIP if people are not to start asking questions.

    A distasteful question, Is the BNP vote holding up or is it collapsing in favour of UKIP?

  32. Well the BNP vote has slumped everywhere else in the country, so I find it hard it hard to see why they’d hold up very well – particularly when UKIP are offering the same messages on traditionalism and immigration but with a more acceptable face.

  33. Dry here today! I was underwhelmed by the huge Tory poster saying he’ll fix potholes. Maybe he thinks it’s a Council by-election? FS & Mrnameless – the BNP vote held up in Rotherham, but they were already strong there with a well known candidate. I haven’t seen any posters yet, other than at the Party HQs here.

  34. ^Yeah, Marlene Guest seems like the default BNP candidate in Rotherham. I believe she outpolled the Tories in the 2012 by-election.

  35. Predictions for the by-election:-

    Lab 55%
    UKIP 25%
    Con 10%
    LD 5%
    Others 5%

  36. For the by election I would say
    Lab 54
    Ukip 20
    Con 15
    Lib Dem 6
    BNP 2
    GRN 2
    Loony ,<1

  37. A few people here mentioned the floods today. While Sale has had floods in the past, they were referring to the South West and the Govt’s confused inaction to date.

  38. Lab 55
    UKIP 19
    Con 15
    LD 7
    BNP 2
    Green 2
    Loony 0

  39. What’s the government supposed to do exactly? Order the rain to stop?

    What we need is proper thought through plans for the future, not knee jerk photo opportunities with David Cameron in his willies.

  40. predictive text turns *wellies* to willies!

    How Freudian

  41. This by-election, which although it came to be through tragic circumstances, represents a significant milestone in my UKPR commenting career, for I was at university with one of the candidates. I feel it’s a right of passage.

    “predictive text turns *wellies* to willies!” puts me in mind of Not the Nine O’clock news

  42. My prediction for this by-election-I am trying to be sensible here:

    Lab 56
    UKIP 20
    Con 14
    Lib Dem 5
    Green 3
    BNP 2
    Loony anywhere between 0 and 1 (%).

    UKIP did a lot of damage to the once-respectable Conservative vote in Wythenshawe in recent local elections and will do so again here, and I think the Green candidate, Nigel, interviewed rather well.

    And to Neil: yes, the BNP candidate in the Rotherham did outpoll the Conservatives-she came third and the Conservatives’ Simon Wilson came fifth (behind Respect)-the worst ever Conservative placing in any English by-election.

  43. HH – I think the perception was that the Govt just didn’t care about Somerset after a month, unlike Prince Charles. Although, arguably the ridicule of a confused Govt is worse eg see Iain Martin’s piece in the Telegraph.

  44. HH – I think the perception was that the Govt just didn’t care about Somerset after a month, unlike Prince Charles. Although, arguably the ridicule of a confused Govt response over the weekend is worse eg see Iain Martin’s piece in the Telegraph.

  45. Win for the Greens on the cards here = London flooded tomorrow and everyone sees we have been scientifically correct on climate disaster while others blame end of pipe solutions. If only, not sure folks are up for facing reality just yet šŸ™

  46. Lol. Not so sure about global warming – more like hell will freeze over before the Green supporters who post here face up to reality

  47. Unfortunately for the Greens, support for them won’t really pick up until we’re really suffering the effects of climate change, but which time of course it will be too late for green policies to totally reverse the trend. Never underestimate humanity’s ability to not get worked up over a problem until it’s really bad.

  48. Also to be fair the Green policy portfolio is really quite unrealistic in a number of flagship areas. Their problem is not just that people don’t share their assessment of the problems economically or environmentally – a lot of people who do share their assessment (probably including myself) don’t see them as putting forward serious and credible solutions a lot of the time. I mean, take academics as a category – very few of them indeed would dispute climate science and many would put it higher than most voters on their list of priorities, but generally very few of them vote Green.

  49. That’s true. Whilst climate change is one of the issues I do get very worked up over, I never really considered joining the Greens. I wanted to support a party with abit of realism in it. Further to that, it’s also why I never really considered the Liberal Democrats – if nothing else, this coalition has dragged more of the party into reality, if I may be so blunt.

  50. As for this by-election, I’ll have a think about my own prediction in a couple of days, but right now I rather fancy JDA’s.

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