Wythenshawe    and    Sale    East    By election    2014

The by-election was caused by the death of Paul Goggins, who died on the 7th January 2014 after suffering a brain haemorrhage while out running in December 2013. The by-election was held on 13th February during the middle of the 2014 floods and resulted in Labour holding the seat with an increased majority. UKIP took second place and the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit.

Result
Mike Kane (Labour) 13261 55.3% (+11.2%)
John Bickley (UKIP) 4301 18.0% (+14.5)
Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) 3479 14.5% (-11.0%)
Mary di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) 1176 4.9% (-17.4%)
Nigel Woodcock (Green) 748 3.1% (n/a)
Eddy O'Sullivan (BNP) 708 3.0% (-0.9%)
Capt Chaplington-Smythe (Loony) 288 1.2% (n/a)
MAJORITY 8960 37.4% (+18.8%)
Turnout 28.2% (-26.1%)
Candidates
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Mike Kane (Labour) Former teacher. Former Manchester councillor
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Mary Di Mauro (Liberal Democrat) Manchester councillor
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Daniel Critchlow (Conservative) Born in Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar
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John Bickley (UKIP) Born 1953. Businessman
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Nigel Woodcock (Green) Higher education lecturer
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Edward O'Sullivan (BNP) Driving teacher and former army technician. Contested North West region 2009 European election, Salford mayoral election 2012
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Captain Chaplington Smythe (Loony) Real name Mark Chapman
Comments - 269 Responses on “Wythenshawe and Sale East By Election”
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  1. I’d already put down the 2012 local election results on the main page for Wythenshawe, but since we have this by-election I thought I’d expand on my work.

    2012 local election results:

    Labour: 12,350 (57.6%)
    Conservatives: 4,731 (22.1%)
    Liberal Democrats: 1,389 (6.5%)
    Greens: 1,347 (6.3%)
    UKIP: 1,317 (6.1%)
    TUSC: 193 (0.9%)
    Independent: 117 (0.5%)

    Total votes: 21,444

    *UKIP only stood in the Manchester wards, leaving out the 3 Trafford wards. Overall among the Manchester wards, UKIP took 3rd place, only 82 votes behind the Tories.
    *TUSC only stood in 2 wards.
    *Only 1 independent candidate stood.

    Compared to the 2010 local election results:

    Labour: +15.1%
    Conservatives: -2.7%
    Liberal Democrats: -17.7%
    UKIP: +3.1%
    Greens: +3.6%
    BNP: -2.1%
    Independent: +0.1%
    TUSC: +0.6%

    Total votes: 41,680

    Swing from Con to Lab: 8.9%

    *The Greens stood in all wards except Brooklands.
    *UKIP only stood in the Manchester wards, leaving out the 3 Trafford wards
    *BNP only stood in 3 Manchester wards.
    *Only 1 independent candidate stood.
    *TUSC only stood in 1 ward.

    There weren’t any noteworthy differences between the general and local election results in 2010. All parties (failure to stand in some wards accepted) performed pretty much the same locally as nationally.

    It looks like I was abit off with my 2012 Labour figures compared to my original work, hence why the rest of the data is slightly different, but not greatly so.

  2. For a Loony candidate, that Chaplington Smythe bloke looks a lot less zany than previous candidates.

    UKIP have a very good chance of winning second here. Their choice of candidate must be a bitter pill for Labour, seeing as how he once supported them and whose father was a trade unionist. AND has business experience. It’s weird in that he’s representing a right wing party but coming from a very leftist background, while the Labour candidate by some accounts is a New Labour type (once advisor to James Purnell).

    Both UKIP and New Labour are on the right but in different ways. Factors like the EU and immigration seem to separate them as well as how the latter is losing ground on the WC vote to the former.

  3. As far as the by-election is concerned, I’m convinced of the following things:

    1) Labour will win. Duh.
    2) UKIP will outpoll the Conservatives in the Manchester wards.
    3) The Liberal Democrats will probably retain their deposit, but with the recent scandals in the news cycle that’s at jeopardy.
    4) Whether UKIP outpolls the Tories overall will depend on how much impact they have in the Trafford wards. It’s an area of Conservative strength, and with UKIP not standing there in the locals they are an unknown quantity. If they can eat significantly into it, there’s every chance, though as of now I think the Tories actually have the edge.

    Anyone want to take a gander at the kind of Conservative voters there are in Trafford? The more working-class kind that would turn UKIP, or the more middle-class ones that would stay with the Tories?

  4. UKIP have been consistently under-estimated in recent by-elections. Therefore if your analysis suggests neck and neck for 2nd place, history suggests that UKIP will get a comfortable second.

    I should imagine a large chunk of the Tory vote will stay at home.

  5. The Tory vote in Trafford is traditional owner-occupied middle class such as one would find in a typical suburban constituency & is generally found predominantly in inter-war semi-detached houses. This is also true of Brooklands ward in Manchester.

  6. If I were called Mark Chapman I’d be tempted to change my name, too.

  7. Thanks for that BM.

  8. With all due respect, the deadline for submitting nominations for this by-election, according to Manchester City Council’s website, is Wednesday 29th, not today. Therefore, the creator of this by-election post should have waited until the publication of the statement of persons nominated has been written before saying who is standing in this by-election, and this official statement will not be until 5 pm on Wednesday 29 January 2014…there are still two days left for people to put themselves forward, if you look at the notice of election carefully.

  9. Lotus, Anthony is updating it each time a new candidate comes forward.

  10. Okay,Van Fleet,thank you for that. I hope the Greens will finally come forward in the end, and it will be interesting to see on Wednesday evening which other candidates have thrown themselves into the ring,so to speak.

  11. It is worth pointing out that the Tories do not do nearly as well in Sale as they once did. Mr Whitehead provided some detailed statistics confirming this on the constituency page. So I don’t think it’s correct to call Sale an area of Tory strength. In an even year it leans Labour these days.

    I also agree with Barnaby’s characterisation of the Tory vote here. The Toriest wards in Trafford are home to professional, highly qualified suburbanites- this is not an area of white van man/ petit-bourgeois Conservatism.

  12. BBC North West Tonight mentioned an Independent candidate. Surname was Goggins, but no idea if any relation.

  13. Ciaran Goggins, and no relation as far as I’m aware. Nor am I sure if he’s actually standing. May be in discussions with TUSC about standing under their banner.

  14. An interesting, though of probable limited influence in the byelection, article showing that this’ll be an interesting campaign:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukips-great-business-tycoon-john-3068492

  15. So I’m guessing UKIP now have a few hours to select a new candidate before nominations close tomorrow?

  16. Chris Cassidy – the 2010 candidate has kept an updated blog-type thing at votetalk.co.uk. He put his name forward but he was thought too young (born 1990) to be a candidate at a high-profile by-election.

  17. Talking policy in a more light-hearted vein considering we have a Loony on offer for once..

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/whose-policy-ukip-or-monster-raving-loony-party

  18. So has Bickley withdrawn, or been withdrawn? I hadn’t heard about this up to now.

  19. Well he’s certainly not eligible to be an MP anymore.

  20. They are cracking open the fizzy water around at the BNP on this news…

  21. Crikey that is pretty unfortunate. An exceptional candidate could make an especially big impact, but I’m guessing the UKIP banner alone would gain a lot of support even if they would now have to select a new candidate.

    Bickley seems like a very impressive candidate, but a lot of previous by-election candidates were rather anonymous (i.e. didn’t really gauge much about them) in comparison yet UKIP still polled well.

    The best UKIP by-election candidate by far was Diane James. Jane Collins was pretty decent too.

  22. Walter Mitty? Oops Nigel put the kibosh on him running..

  23. He isn’t a bankrupt as far as I’m aware. Merely a business he had went into administration. It’s quite common. Sadly, the practice of reopening under a new name with assets is also quite common and unscrupulous. The Ethel Austins’ CEO did it 4 times! Chris Grayling was a Director of Charterhouse that was wound up by HMRC for non payment of VAT.

  24. So he hasn’t personally been declared bankrupt and could in theory at least still run for parliament? Whether UKIP will still want him is another matter.

  25. Just like to say that Nigel Woodcock will be standing for the Greens for this by-election-confirmed by Trafford and Manchester Green Parties earlier today. We will be able to find out tomorrow evening via the statement of persons nominated exactly who will be standing in this by-election.

  26. Thanks for the info Lotus.

  27. Lab 8187
    UKIP 5389
    Con 2987
    LD 1387

  28. I think Dalek’s prediction is pretty good – not something I often say. Allowing for minority candidates it would imply UKIP at about 25% and Labour at just over 40%, on a pitiful turnout of about 30%.

  29. I would genuinely be surprised if UKIP beat us by anywhere near that amount. I am not expert like you Hemmelig – but don’t see it as particularly good UKIP territory.

  30. A good mixture of normal and local candidates

  31. LOL I’m certainly no expert either. My thoughts are that UKIP have tended to out-perform expectations in by-elections in this parliament, and the Tories have under-performed. I would comfortably predict UKIP beating the Tories into 2nd but maybe the 25-30% UKIP share predicted by Dalek is over-egging it. I think 20-25% is more likely.

  32. I have real hope that we might beat UKIP. We certainly should do.

  33. The statement of persons nominated for this by-election is now available on Manchester Council’s website.

    All the candidates already mentioned in this thread plus Green Party candidate Nigel Woodcock have been declared validly nominated. No independent or new minor party candidates have come forward for this by-election,surprisingly.

  34. Thanks Lotus.

    According to the statement, only the Labour, Lib Dem, and Loony candidates live in the constituency.

  35. I like LBernard’s comment discriminating between the local and the normal candidates… LoL… those strange locals will get you every time…

  36. This is a local constituency, for LOCAL people. There’s nothing for you here.

  37. I thought the Tories’ vicar was local? Unless he’s on the Roll at his old church?

  38. According to the statement, he lives in the Stretford and Urmston constituency.

  39. Which is still in Greater Manchester and in fact being in the Borough of Trafford is next to Wythenshawe and Sale East. The UKIP candidate comes from the Eddisbury constituency, in Cheshire and well outside Greater Manchester.

  40. I see the Greens managed to raise the necessary funds…

  41. Thanks Lotus & VF. Ah yes, I don’t like that change whereby a Parliamentary Candidate can merely list the constituency in which they live rather than their address. Dr Julian Lewis raised the amendment for MPs who are harrassed by mentally ill constituents. It was intended to be used by half a dozen MPs. Sadly, over 120 PPCs from the 3 main Parties used it in 2010.

  42. There’s really no point in doing that. If someone desperately wants to find out where their MP (or anyone else for that matter) lives, they only have to go to their local council offices and look up their name on the electoral register. O

  43. But I’ve just remembered that councils are supposed to have a confidential electoral register that includes the names of people who have genuine reasons for not wanting to appear on the publicly available register regardless of whether their MP or just ordinary voters.

    It’s supposed to give peace of mind to people like stalking and domestic violence victims who don’t want certain people to find out where they live. I suppose that could also include MP’s who are being harassed by mentally unstable constituents.

  44. Adam – yes that’s true. That’s only as good as online 192 search. A decade ago members of the armed forces often appeared at the end of each polling district of the Roll under ‘Other electors’ with no address next to it. I did once ask an ERO who else appeared under ‘Other’ as often it didn’t even have a forename – merely eg A Jones and how Candidates could contact them. The ERO was quite unhelpful but I assumed from what he said that those under police protection and members of the security services were listed in that way.

  45. BBC North West Tonight had a 3 minute feature of the By-election. Of the main 4 profiled, the UKIP candidate came across the best. I thought Arif Ansari’s take on the Tories was a little unfair, although saying, “It’d take a miracle for the Tories to win” was mainly said due to the vicar standing. The public who were asked all mentioned immigrants and the Manchester Uni ‘expert’ suggested UKIP could come 2nd. The Labour newspaper said “UKIP are worse than Cameron’s Tories” so the impression was that UKIP are on the rise but to what level is uncertain.

  46. The interesting factor of this byelection is how well will UKIP perform.

    The NW was one of their poorer areas in terms of CC results last May.

    Conversely as this is a safe Labour seat, they may pile on the votes as they did in South Shields which I believe they did not invest very seroiously also last May.

  47. UKIP didn’t do nearly as well in northern regions as they did in eastern and southern shires at last year’s elections. Only a couple of wins in North Yorkshire if I recall. This year will be a test of whether they can achieve that same kind of success in the metropolitan boroughs. I’m sure they’ll do well in some of the non-metrpolitan districts though.

    Far more of the north is going to election locally this time around.

  48. P & Neil – exactly. Most people didn’t have a vote in the North last May. UKIP have started coming 2nd in Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield wards since 2012, however.

  49. “Labour got over 100 activists out at the weekend. ”

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/213015/#Comment_213015

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