Wrexham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10350 (31.6%)
Labour: 12181 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 1735 (5.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2501 (7.6%)
Green: 669 (2%)
UKIP: 5072 (15.5%)
Independent: 211 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1831 (5.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of the Wrexham council area.

Main population centres: Wrexham, Gresford.

Profile: The overwhelming majority of the seat is made up of the town of Wrexham itself, the biggest town in north Wales, situated close to the English border. Wrexham is a former heavy industrial town, once dominated by mining and brewing. In more recent times it has successfully diversified into light and high tech industry and houses the second largest industrial estate in the country to the east of town. Companies operating here include Kelloggs, JCB and Calypso drinks.

Politics: Labour has held the seat since its creation in 1935, but not always safely. In recent years its safety has owed much to the opposition support being divided between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. The Welsh Assembly seat of the same borders has a much more exotic recent history, thanks to the political travels of the former Labour MP John Marek, who held the assembly seat as an independent after being deselected, failed to hold it for his new Forward Wales party and eventually joined the Conservatives.


Current MP
IAN LUCAS (Labour) Born 1960, Gateshead. Educated at Newcastle Royal Grammar School and Oxford University. Former Solicitor. Contested North Shrophire 1997. First elected as MP for Wrexham in 2001. Government whip 2008-2009, Under-secretary for Business 2009-2010. Resigned as a PPS in 2006 as part of the abortive Brownite coup that forced Tony Blair to name a date for his departure.
Past Results
2010
Con: 8375 (25%)
Lab: 12161 (37%)
LDem: 8503 (26%)
PC: 2029 (6%)
Oth: 1908 (6%)
MAJ: 3658 (11%)
2005
Con: 6079 (20%)
Lab: 13993 (46%)
LDem: 7174 (24%)
PC: 1744 (6%)
Oth: 1395 (5%)
MAJ: 6819 (22%)
2001
Con: 6746 (22%)
Lab: 15934 (53%)
LDem: 5153 (17%)
PC: 1783 (6%)
Oth: 432 (1%)
MAJ: 9188 (31%)
1997
Con: 8688 (24%)
Lab: 20450 (56%)
LDem: 4833 (13%)
PC: 1170 (3%)
Oth: 1281 (4%)
MAJ: 11762 (32%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANDREW ATKINSON (Conservative)
IAN LUCAS (Labour) See above.
ROB WALSH (Liberal Democrat)
NIALL PLEVIN-KELLY (UKIP)
DAVID MUNNERLEY (Green)
CARRIE HARPER (Plaid)
BRIAN EDWARDS (Independent)
Links
Comments - 138 Responses on “Wrexham”
  1. Yes, Inds made most of the Gains here.

  2. Tories gained 4 here.

  3. Ive had 2 visits from Labour within a week here ( as opposed to never at any other GE ). Obviously not giving up without a fight – although they looked very despondent I have to say !!

  4. Theresa May launching the Conservative’s Welsh manifesto here today.

  5. There will be a Welsh barometer released by YouGov at some point today apparently it has raised some eye brows.

  6. In a negative sense?

  7. My guess on the new Welsh poll is Lab will be back ahead, maybe comfortably. Welsh polls usually move broadly in line with national polls – if they did we’d expect Lab +1 or so, compared to Con +6 two weeks ago. Will be interesting to see if Plaid are collapsing, like other smaller parties.

  8. New Welsh poll is as follows:

    LAB: 44% (+9)
    CON: 34% (-7)
    PC: 9% (-1)
    LDEM: 6% (-1)
    UKIP: 5% (+1)

    Ian Lucas and co. might be sleeping a little better tonight.

  9. All I will say is the Tories do seem incredibly efficient with the Welsh vote. I could see them take an incidental vote increase but still gain two or three seats.

  10. I think it’s worth re-stating that Welsh poll but using the 2015 GE figures for comparison instead of the last poll :

    Lab 44% (+7)
    Con 34% (+7)
    PC 9% (-3)
    LibDem 6% (-)
    UKIP 5% (-9)

    Swing – Zero

  11. Lab hold, maj up one vote

  12. This seat got a mention on the BBC Politics Live today.

    Cllr Andrew Atkinson (PPC here in 2015 & 2017) said he’s helping elsewhere and he isn’t aware of local Cllrs helping the Con candidate here this time. He didn’t elaborate the reason why.

  13. Intresting. Futher prove of all not being well in the Welsh tory party?

  14. For her part the Tory PPC got decent coverage in the local paper.

    She said she most admired Frank Field out of all MPs in the last Parliament.

  15. Wrexham poll puts the Tories 15 points ahead here.
    44-29.
    MRP had the Tories only 4 ahead on 42-38.

    On these figures Labour will be easily under 200 seats.

  16. Holy moly. A constituency poll for the economist has the Tories 15 points ahead here!

    Con 44
    Lab 29
    PC 10
    TBP 9
    LD 6

    Fieldwork was a week ago but it can’t have changed *that* much…

  17. Unlikely. Only hope for Labour is constituency polling being unreliable – as I said MRP only had labour losing by 4 and they were doing ok in the last Welsh You Gov poll.

  18. We really need a *North* Wales poll. South Wales is electorally uninteresting; in better times for Labour Preseli Pembrokeshire and Vale of Glamorgan would be interesting contests. Maybe Bridgend and Gower are in play, but they seem tough for the Tories.

    But the north coast is where all the action is happening; not inconceivable that Labour could lose Delyn, Alyn and Seaside, both Clwyd seats, Wrexham and Ynys Mon (to either of two parties), and be wiped out of the region entirely!

  19. Petition to rename the constituency “Alyn and Seaside”. I actually think autocorrect made an improvement there.

  20. That’s what I think will happen even with MRP predicting very tight Labour holds in Delyn and Alyn and Deeside while losing the others in North Wales.
    MRP only has Labour ahead by one in Gower and two in Bridgend – and only four ahead in Newport West. Ten ahead in Newport East.
    But Labour are Twelve ahead in Cardiff North.

    Tories seven ahead in Preseli Pembrokeshire and twelve ahead in the Vale of Glamorgan. Only six ahead in Aberconwy through.

  21. Not really surprised the Tories are only 6% ahead of labour in aberconwy given they have selected a candidate from Suffolk with no Welsh connections whatsoever. I’ve heard of several people who are thinking of not voting Conservative because of that and that alone

    This seat should be a fairly be a pretty straightforward Tory hold but the local associations preference for all things English might come back to bite the Tories here

  22. By this seat I meant aberconwy not Wrexham which I think Labour might hang onto by the skin of their teeth

  23. Speaking to a experienced Labour activist in South Wales who correctly called Labour’s 2017 gain of Gower.
    They think one Newport seat will go tory, Bridgend is on a knife edge, that Labour will struggle to hold Cardiff North but (surprisingly) they think Gower will be held.

  24. Wrexham, constituency voting intention: CON: 44% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-20)
    PC: 10% (+5) BREX: 9% (+9) LDEM: 6% (+3) GRN: 2% (-)
    via @Survation, 27 – 30 Nov Chgs. w/ GE2017

    Looling like a surefire Tory gain here.

  25. If constituency polls are accurate. MRP was 42-38 for the tories.

  26. Couple of things to note about this Wrexham poll: an unusually small sample (only 500), and it was done by phone which is unusual these days.

    Not sure the method of contact should make all that much difference as long as the poll is weighted correctly.

  27. Maesydre ward by-election, 18.03.21:

    PC 150 (+ 31% )
    Lab 133 ( – 17% )
    Cons 123
    LD 47
    Ind 36

    PC Gain from Labour

  28. Damn, what sort of turnout is that? Must be barely into double figures.

  29. I didn’t know they’d resumed council by-elections. I suppose turnout for local elections is low enough without the government telling people to stay home. Makes me wonder what the record for lowest turnout is.

  30. Tbf welsh wards are quite small. By elections in Scotland and wales resumed last year i think

  31. Labour hold here with a tiny swing to the Conservatives.

    The party narrowly lost Vale of Clwyd but probaby breathing a sigh of relief that North East Wales hasn’t followed suit of the 2019 GE. Perhaps one of the few highlights of this set of elections for Labour. They’re increasing their vote share in seats too. If they perform respectably overall in the Senedd, a decent (rather than resounding) vote of confidence for Drakeford.

  32. I’m trying to work out whether it’s possible for Labour to get to 31 seats. They need to pick up three seats somehow, given they’re currently down Vale of Clwyd – Rhondda, a Mid-Wales list seat, and AN Other?

  33. If they fall just short of a majority, they should hope and pray that there’s enough Lib Dems list members to form an assembly alliance in govt. And they certainly cannot afford to lose Vale of Glamorgan given how tightly contested it is.

    They’ve taken Rhondda from Leanne Wood which is something and have polled well in Preseli as well as Camarthen West running quite close 2nd places.

  34. My working assumption is that it will be just Kirsty Williams in Brecon & Radnorshire. The Lib Dem votes in other Welsh seats are almost all in three figures, that doesn’t look like it’ll be enough for list seats unless there’s some split-ticketing.

  35. Maybe it will be even worse than that. Brecon and Radnorshire has just come in as a Conservative gain!

  36. So, of the three seats that changed hands, only Rhondda is really impactful as the other two (Vale of Clwyd, Brecon & Radnorshire) got evened out by the list vote. Which means Labour are on 30, one short of a majority, and can govern without needing support from Plaid because of that Lib Dems list seat.

    There will be a Guardian piece in the coming days on “what Keir Starmer can learn from Mark Drakeford.” Unfortunately I expect that the answer is “already be in government, and do a good job,” which isn’t massive useful…

  37. And, predictably, the usual suspects are playing up Mark Drakeford’s “true socialist” credentials in comparison to Starmer’s alleged “red Tory” platform, despite the fact that both men are wishy-washy, non-factional soft-leftists.

  38. It’s boring but not surprised. Just because Drakeford was endorsed by Momentum when Welsh Labour ran their leadership contest doesn’t mean he’s their property. He’s a fairly mainstream politician and happens to be a lot more palatable to voters than many of the weirdos and oddballs they promote. He’s one of the few who doesn’t seem to divide the wings of the party which is something of a miracle today.

    Also the potential think-pieces about how “what Starmer could learn from Drakeford” are meaningless. Running in Wales is different to a UK-wide GE and there’s no way of knowing how well he’d do in such a scenario. He’s presumably done a respectable job of steering Wales through this Coronavirus and the election result seems to be a general nod of approval for his leadership. That is the issue of the day and it’s paid dividends for him. But post-pandemic, there’s a whole group of other issues which he’ll have to lead on. One thing that might emerge is more pressure from Plaid about Welsh independence, though their performance this week isn’t really a sign that Welsh voters care about it as much as Scottish voters.

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