Worthing East & Shoreham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24686 (49.5%)
Labour: 9737 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 3360 (6.7%)
Green: 2605 (5.2%)
UKIP: 8267 (16.6%)
NHA: 1243 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 14949 (30%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) Born 1962, Eastbourne. Educated at Priory School and Warwick University. Former fund manager. Contested Sheffield Brightside 1992. First elected as MP for East Worthing and Shoreham in 1997. Parliamentary under-secretary for children and families 2010-2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23458 (48%)
Lab: 8087 (17%)
LDem: 12353 (26%)
UKIP: 2984 (6%)
Oth: 1515 (3%)
MAJ: 11105 (23%)
2005
Con: 19548 (44%)
Lab: 11365 (26%)
LDem: 10844 (24%)
UKIP: 2109 (5%)
Oth: 677 (2%)
MAJ: 8183 (18%)
2001
Con: 18608 (43%)
Lab: 12469 (29%)
LDem: 9876 (23%)
UKIP: 1195 (3%)
Oth: 920 (2%)
MAJ: 6139 (14%)
1997
Con: 20864 (40%)
Lab: 12335 (24%)
LDem: 15766 (31%)
Oth: 921 (2%)
MAJ: 5098 (10%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) See above.
TIM MACPHERSON (Labour)
BOB SMYTHERMAN (Liberal Democrat)
MIKE GLENNON (UKIP) Former teacher. West Sussex councillor. Contested Worthing East and Shoreham 2010.
JAMES DOYLE (Green)
CARL WALKER (NHA) University lecturer.
Links
Comments - 255 Responses on “Worthing East & Shoreham”
  1. I think it’s possible that without the SNP surge Tory seats like this may have been in danger to UKIP. But I think that challenge will have faded now due to Con/UKIP potential voters’ dislike for the prospect of a Lab/SNP coalition. A number of people in this type of constituency who were going to vote UKIP will hold their noses and vote Tory.

  2. Conservative Hold. 11,000 maj

  3. Tim Loughton has been caught trying to join the Labour Party to vote in the Leadership election.

    http://labourlist.org/2015/08/tory-mp-tries-to-sign-up-to-vote-in-labours-leadership-election-gets-booted-out/

  4. I guess Tim Loughton’s Labour Party application may have been technically fraudulent but it is hardly worth worry about.

    Perhaps it is more imporant that he is not exactly showing a shing example for stands of behaviour in the Conservative Party.

    From Mr. Loughton’s biography he seems not to have made the grade on the ministerial ladder, and there are plenty of people from moe recen Tory intakes who will take precedence now.

    As Loughton appears to have few political interests, and to be from an area with perhaps comparatively few political issues, is he now looking forward to perhaps twenty years proping up the Commons bars (or tearoom) and pursuing outside interests?

    The main threat to this MP seems to be a redistribution of seats. What effects are boundary changs likely to have here in 2020?

    I cannot see Labour making a serious challenge here. But could UKIP put up a candidate hereable to to challenge this MP in terms of his personal performance as well as political differences.

  5. Amusingly this would seem to be in breach of the Conservative Party constitution.

  6. i sincerely hope that Mr. Loughton’s action is in breach of he Tory constitution but (a) who is going to make a formal complaint (b) would the party think it is n the Conservative Party’s interest to investigate this matter and (c) If Mr. Loughon were to be found formally to be in breach of the Conservative constitution what sanction be imposed?

  7. There’s no love lost between Loughton and Cameron. At the very least I expect he’ll get quite a roasting over this, especially as he was on the news today criticising the government over Kids Company.

  8. If Loughton is so out of sorts with Cameron is he a candidate for defection to UKIP? And would UKIP want him?

    What are Loughton’s relationships with Osborne and other potential successors to Cameron? In other words, can he bide his time or has he put himself beyond the pail?

  9. ‘If Loughton is so out of sorts with Cameron is he a candidate for defection to UKIP?’

    I wouldn’t have thought so

    Although he’s on the moderate centre-right of the Tory Party I’ve never heard him advocate withdrawing from the EU, and he’s too pro-business to consider joining UKIP

  10. Loughton’s disagreements with Cameron are primarily personal, relating to his sacking as Childrens’ Minister. Doubt he’d be a good fit with UKIP.

  11. Added to which, even if he did defect, he would be highly unlikely to hold his seat here as a UKIP candidate. Worthing East and Shoreham has patches of UKIP strength in Lancing but this is not natural Clacton-type UKIP territory and Loughton would quickly find himself out of parliament.

  12. Given the Kid’s Company scandal Tim Loughton’s sacking as Under-Secretary for Children and Families looks like a mark of honour and integrity.

    My understanding is that Cameron as Prime Minister funded Kid’s Company when the relevant ministers, as it now turns out rightly, refused to do so. More recently Cameron funded Kid’s Company when his civil servant’s refused to do so by taking the unusual step of issuing a MInisterial Direction. The reports are that Kid’s Company immediaely used a considerable proportion of the Government money they received for the unlawful purpose of giving staff salaries and wages which had not been paid on time.

    If a Junior miinister I had done what Cameron did, I sincerely hope he or she would have been sacked. Cameron’s acts were those of a politician with completely inadequate experience and judgement;.

    The Chief Executive of Kid’s Company came across in the media as a person with a lot of enthusiasm and charisma, but a lack of managerial ability and financial common sense. She appeared to me willing to make up answers on the spot when asked awkward questions, without checking that her responses were sound.

    The Chief Executive’s failings are far from unique. It is part of the job of ministers and other fundrers to be able to check up on such people before giving or lending them money. Cameron failed to do so and since he was explicityl overruling advice he was individually responsible.

    It is to be hoped that Cameron is grilled over this matter when Parliament returns, and if that matters are as appears he is held accountable in a non-partisan political debate. And I hope that during this process Tim Loughton will be listened to with respect.

  13. 2020

    Mountshaft (UKIP) 16,919
    *Loughton (C) 16,863
    O’Brien (Lab) 11,441
    Doyle (Green) 2,960
    Pell (Capital Punishment will save more jobs) 1,160
    Lloyd (LD) 983
    Martin (SDP) 362
    Fist (White Newsagent) 113
    McGuinness (SF) 37

    UKIP GAIN FROM CON
    Majority 56
    0.1%

  14. Very funny Joe. But why would Stephen Lloyd stand here LOL?!

  15. A joke obviously.
    I expect the Tories to hold on with a good majority, pretty much however it is drawn.

  16. If Corbyn is Labour leader I think UKIP would have a good chance of coming second in seats like this.

  17. Given he wasn’t put in here until the very last minute, Bob Smytherman did very well just to save his deposit.

  18. who’s O’Brien? lf it’s Ossie O’Brien, he’s been dead for years. There was however subsequently a very obscure Labour MP called Bill O’Brien (Normanton).

  19. He’s very well known locally and has been a councillor in Tarring in Worthing for a long time. Otherwise I think that the Lib Dems might have lost their deposit.

  20. Bob Smytherman that is

  21. I expected leave would do better than it did in Worthing and Arun. Though there may be some signs of Brightonisation in some wards (Labour actually did very well around here in the 2016 locals) which might help explain it.

  22. Heavens does the fabled Merseyside effect finally have a competitor? The Brighton effect? I suppose its already claimed Hove as its first victim and possibly Worthing next,..

  23. Maxim
    It makes sense really, I suppose a lot of folks want to live in Brighton for cultural reasons, all those who want that are hardly likely to be your typical little Englander (more like Hipster Central) but given Brighton’s limited size and supposedly pricey property market they choose to live slightly further afield in Hove, Lewes Worthing etc Different dynamic to the Merseyside effect but possibly similar outcomes.

  24. There might have been something of a Lib Dem unwind in those seats in 01 perhaps?

  25. Time will tell. Obviously Labour is not winning Worthing any time even vaguely soon but the potential Brigton effect it is still interesting nevertheless.

    Maxim it would be primarily Lib Dem unwind. In Hastings for example the Lib Dems imploded never to recover.

  26. Lewes itself has a pretty liberal outlook independent of any Brighton effect. I’d imagine the town itself voted overwhelmingly for remain, with the other parts of the borough voting leave and pulling the overall result down to a narrow remain win.

  27. Southwick, with its industrial coastline and scores of council flats, was today named in the top 5 most normal town in the UK – beaten to the top spot by the heavy industry town of Didcot

  28. ‘Given this seat’s proximity to that conurbation, I wouldnt be surprised if Labour strengthened in this seat in coming years (though there’ll come nowhere near in 2020)’

    These types of places seem to be moving away from Labour, although

    The two wards that cover Southwick – Southwick Green & Eastbrook were pretty heavily Tory in 2015 – with Labour and UKIP fighting it out for a pretty distant second

    That could change as more and more people move in due to its proximity to Brighton

    Next-door Portslade is a bit like that because property is still considerably cheaper than the rest of Brighton & Hove

  29. Those four seats you mention are not good comparisons as they are largely dominated by an affluent, highly educated and mostly middle class electorate – this seat isn’t

  30. In reply to Maxim – obviously

  31. There is a bit of suspendors momentum possible here. The Lib Dems saved deposit in 2015 and Louton didn’t get 50%. What do we want? Brexit! When do we want it? Now!.
    If the LIb Dems came out for Brexit in Leave supporting seats only, could clean up the UKIP and lots of the Tory votes, but still appeal to Remain voters spilling over from Brighton, and squeeze Labour aswell.

  32. Funnily enough Adur, the local authority, actually used to good territory for the Lib Dems in the 90s at a local level – which is quite surprising given its demographics

    The 1997 result in this seat was seen as a bit of a disappointment, losing by a bigger than expected margin to right-winger Tim Loughton

  33. “The 1997 result in this seat was seen as a bit of a disappointment, losing by a bigger than expected margin to right-winger Tim Loughton”

    Yes, so much so that the 1992-97 MP Michael Stephen stood down because he expected to lose.

  34. Yes, so much so that the 1992-97 MP Michael Stephen stood down because he expected to lose.’

    I think Stephen actually failed to make the shortlist for either of the two new seats as his Shoreham seat was being cut in half, which effectively means he was de-selected

    Being a one term MP I don’t remember much about him other than that he supported livestock exports from the harbour and was very, very odd – even by the standards of Tory MPs back in those days

  35. He was a social conservative who opposed lowering the age of consent for gays below 21….just like Nigel Evans in fact 🙂

  36. I remember him also making the headlines when he came out saying that MPs had lost the plot on law and order citing the 1994 vote against the reintroduction of the death penalty as his evidence – omitting the fact that he voted against it himself!

  37. Plop Tory. Have you really just joined the Lib Dems or is this a joke? I defriended you in case.
    Apologies if I have mis-read some joke.

  38. Jokes need to be more carefully “calibrated”. Even when more risky.

  39. ‘There is in reality no place for me in a party that is neither liberal nor democratic.’

    I can’t imagine you being particularly welcome to be honest

    Like other political oddballs – Justin Hinhcliffe,William Hague, sh*t even Micheal Stephen – – I feel you have found your rightful home in the Tory Party Maxim

  40. Justin was expelled IIRC

  41. I don’t recall that MP at all.

    I think Ivan Massow has been in 3 or 4 Parties though.

    The LDs attracted all sorts though in the ’90s onwards. In the North West they included an ex right wing Tory MP and an ex Militant Lpool City Cllr.

  42. Tim Jones – yes, Adur Council was under Liberal Democrat control for a while. Southwick Green was a stronghold for them at one time. Eastbrook was the one ward that sometimes voted Labour. It covers Fishersgate, right on the boundary with Brighton and Hove. Now parts of Lancing do as well. In Worthing, the Selden ward sometimes almost voted Labour, but I think that was because a long-standing activist was nearly always their candidate.

    Southwick is not too bad, if you don’t mind living in a very urban area – the green is just about the only open space, apart from the seafront. Its advantage is that house prices are much cheaper than in Brighton and Hove.

  43. As the South Coast goes – at least the South Eastern part of it – Southwick doesn’t stand out as particularly bad, it’s just very urban, industrial (which Brighton & Hove isn’t), with a coastline dominated by the far from picturesque Shoreham Harbour

    And just as Brighton has goner the other way, it seems to have become inceasingly Conservative as it’s declined

  44. Big swing to Labour here..although area and MP Leave.

  45. Ominous for Loughton I would say in the short and long-term…

  46. This is a rather weird seat. Labour came vaguely close in 1997 after a period when they were winning all sorts of seats in local elections (in the Shoreham part anyway), including Southwick but also several others. Then almost as soon as the upsurge had come, everything collapsed both in local & national elections – for several years there were no Labour councillors at all. Now just as suddenly whoosh, the Labour support has returned almost as it it hadn’t ever disappeared. Pretty volatile clearly, some parts of the constituency. Labour can win here, even though it’s never happened up to now in a general election.

  47. We’ve had years of discussing the Merseyside effect…now it’s time for the Brighton equivalent.

  48. Can only see this falling next time if Labour get a majority. Dont think it would fall in hung parliament terroirty again even if Labour win more seats.

  49. Well, I’m sure that this seat’s proximity to Hove has had a major effect. However, it has yet to make Arundel & South Downs or Lewes into winnable seats for Labour………..

  50. Rochford and South-end east is another seat with now a similar Tory Majority to this one, through the swing was less there as it has always been a bit tighter. Both are actually seats Labour need to get a majority but it would be more likely seats lower on the list , which tend to be WWC, fall before these seats fall. If a labour government is likely through these seat will have a lot of campaigners as the Brighton Labour party is an very active party it seems.

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