Worthing East & Shoreham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24686 (49.5%)
Labour: 9737 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 3360 (6.7%)
Green: 2605 (5.2%)
UKIP: 8267 (16.6%)
NHA: 1243 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 14949 (30%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) Born 1962, Eastbourne. Educated at Priory School and Warwick University. Former fund manager. Contested Sheffield Brightside 1992. First elected as MP for East Worthing and Shoreham in 1997. Parliamentary under-secretary for children and families 2010-2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23458 (48%)
Lab: 8087 (17%)
LDem: 12353 (26%)
UKIP: 2984 (6%)
Oth: 1515 (3%)
MAJ: 11105 (23%)
2005
Con: 19548 (44%)
Lab: 11365 (26%)
LDem: 10844 (24%)
UKIP: 2109 (5%)
Oth: 677 (2%)
MAJ: 8183 (18%)
2001
Con: 18608 (43%)
Lab: 12469 (29%)
LDem: 9876 (23%)
UKIP: 1195 (3%)
Oth: 920 (2%)
MAJ: 6139 (14%)
1997
Con: 20864 (40%)
Lab: 12335 (24%)
LDem: 15766 (31%)
Oth: 921 (2%)
MAJ: 5098 (10%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) See above.
TIM MACPHERSON (Labour)
BOB SMYTHERMAN (Liberal Democrat)
MIKE GLENNON (UKIP) Former teacher. West Sussex councillor. Contested Worthing East and Shoreham 2010.
JAMES DOYLE (Green)
CARL WALKER (NHA) University lecturer.
Links
Comments - 254 Responses on “Worthing East & Shoreham”
  1. My point in the first place was that this seat has been somewhat idiosyncratic in the past, and that the disappearance of the Lib Dems over the years is indeed intriguing.

  2. Frederick Stansfield is HILARIOUS, who can forget his posts about relocating the capital to some random railway junction.

  3. I tend to agree with Barnaby, though I’m not sure his choice of Sutton Coldfield is the best example as I do find that rather interesting. After all, Labour’s vote share is barely down on 1997 and the Conservative vote share has barely recovered so something very interesting could be starting to happen in what was the 3rd safest Tory seat in 1992. So I don’t think that all ‘safe’ seats (and Sutton Coldfield still is safe) are by their very nature unworthy of analysis. However, some are worthier than others. I don’t personally think there is all that much to say about this seat, which remains pretty securely Tory.

  4. As a traditional Counties hawk, I’m rather fond of Frederic’s Kentish patriotism.

  5. I should add that although I don’t see the grounds for the Results’ interest this seat, I rather like his enthusiasm for matters psephological. 🙂

  6. So should we dismiss this seat in terms of discussion as of now because it is safe for the Conservatives and therefore no longer merits discussion? I will continue this by making a point about the Lib Dems in seats they have targeted and then fallen back in- This one is unique because they fell right back at the very next election. Surely that in itself merits analysis of some kind.

  7. ”I should add that although I don’t see the grounds for the Results’ interest this seat, I rather like his enthusiasm for matters psephological. :-)”

    Thanks, Tory. I only really saw your message as I had posted the one above. My interest in this particular seat was because of the unusual result in 2001, the possible local factors that contributed to it, as well as the Lib Dems’ once huge strength at council level in the area that has since dramatically sunk, and finally the circumstances surrounding Michael Stephen’s disappearance as an MP, so if there is isn’t enough there to say about this seat, I’d be amazed…

  8. It was a strange result in 2001. You might have expected labour to collapse in favor of tactically voting Lib Dem.

  9. Some people who did not post at the previous site might find it worthwhile to read the comments there – as HH has said much ground has already been covered.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/worthingeastandshoreham/

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ealingnorth/

    Some of these will run to several pages, but anyone who wants to understand the psephology of certain areas may find their time well spent in sitting and reading rather than posting

  10. I know you’re probably referring to me indirectly Pete. I’m going to keep posting however, seeing as I’ve already read those pages in any case.

  11. FFS man…when you are 20 you should be spending your evenings getting pissed and having sex with your girlfriend, not poring over some obscure electoral statistics which we have discussed over and over again in any case. (at least not every night)

    Can you give us a day off from boring us shitless…just once?

  12. ”FFS man…when you are 20 you should be spending your evenings getting pissed and having sex with your girlfriend, not poring over some obscure electoral statistics which we have discussed over and over again in any case. (at least not every night)
    Can you give us a day off from boring us shitless…just once?”

    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!!! 🙂 😉

    I don’t drink for one, and for another thing, I don’t have a girlfriend…

  13. You sound like a scouse politico version of Big Bang Theory. Maybe Barnaby’s TV mates could get it on the big screen….we could call it Uniform Swing Theory.

    Followed by Pete Whitehead’s tour of marginal seats.

  14. ”You sound like a scouse politico version of Big Bang Theory. Maybe Barnaby’s TV mates could get it on the big screen….we could call it Uniform Swing Theory.
    Followed by Pete Whitehead’s tour of marginal seats.”

    Ha ha ha ha! I don’t even watch The Big Bang Theory! But what a great idea that is for a programme- Me and Barnaby could look at a different seat each week, just as Pete would with his programme…

  15. Anthony, please delete this stuff.

  16. Talking about boring old farts 🙂

  17. Then one appears

  18. ”Talking about boring old farts
    Then one appears”

    LOL! This is psephology.

  19. The Results – please…………

  20. This has been a very exciting discussion, certainly one of the more high-octane ones we’ve had of late…

  21. Hi Barnaby

    I had a thought….is The Results your son?

  22. I can’t be Barnaby’s son- I’ve never been to Richmond Park and I live in Merseyside, AND I’m a left-winger, so…

  23. No. TheResults is not my son, although of course since he is cagey about his identity I cannot be any more than about 99.95% sure about this. My son would almost certainly have a handle appertaining to metal rather than election results. And as far as we know he does have a girlfriend, and certainly isn’t a teetotaller although his recent intake has been modest. He is also more than 20 years old.

  24. (well he certainly still had a girlfriend last week anyway.)

  25. This whole discussion has all been a little bizarre, to say the very least. I’m not sure how it ended up like this actually TBH…

  26. Maybe he is H Hemmeligs son :p

  27. Well, I agree they both have a similar mental age at times (my son has just had his 2nd birthday).

  28. Oh right cheers now that really is a nice thing to say about someone isn’t it…

  29. The Results: does anyone else your age use phrases like “of late”?

  30. ”The Results: does anyone else your age use phrases like “of late”?”

    No not really Andy you’d think I’m about 90 the way I talk sometimes LOL.

  31. I was only joking with the previous comment.

  32. I can’t see how that’s a joke really, it’s just a phrase?

  33. “I don’t personally think there is all that much to say about this seat, which remains pretty securely Tory.

    March 17th, 2014 at 10:31 pm ”

    lol

  34. Then look at what followed…

  35. Did all of the above really take place? :/

  36. I saw you’d made another comment on this thread & my poor heart sank. Please move on. Everyone. Including me.

  37. The comment that Hemmelig made to me about how I should be spending my evenings will stay with me until the end of my days, quite literally…

  38. There’s always bingo.

  39. ”There’s always bingo.”

    Ha ha ha!

  40. What no one has mentioned on this thread is that the Liberal Democrat candidate for this seat in both 2005 and 2010, James Doyle, is now a Green Party member and has been for at least a year (he defended his county council seat, which he gained as a Liberal Democrat in 2009, as a Green in 2013; he only managed second but demolished the Lib Dem vote in that division in the process). If James stands for my fellow Greens in 2015 (assuming the local Green Party selects him, which they should 🙂 ) , we can do rather well (same with ex-Labour MP Tony Clarke who got 5.8% as an Independent who is a Green spokesperson and will almost certainly be a Green PPC for 2015) here.

  41. Forgive me if I’m less than hugely excited by that.

  42. I have a feeling that the notoriously dour and unprogressive voters of Worthing East and Shoreham might be similarly underwhelmed.

  43. Worthing East and Shoreham has a somewhat sizable Liberal Democrat vote which we Greens can take some of,though…after all, polls show that amongst voters who normally vote for the 3 main parties, Lib Dem voters are the most likely to consider the environment an important issue.

  44. James Doyle’s old county division isn’t even in this constituency

  45. Frederick Stansfield

    Do you know where Riccarton Junction is?

  46. Pete-you are correct; the Worthing Pier division which James Doyle represented from 2009-13 is in Worthing West. Maybe he will contest that constituency instead…given his past experience he is more than good enough to be a Green PPC in my opinion 🙂

  47. “the notoriously dour and unprogressive voters of Worthing East and Shoreham”

    Oi, who are you calling dour & unprogressive ?!

  48. UKIP could well win this one.

  49. LOL the comments on this page further up, and then towards the end of the last page…

  50. Main party candidates:

    Con: Tim Loughton
    Lab: Tim Macpherson
    LD: Jemima Bland
    UKIP: Mike Glennon
    Greens: James Doyle

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