Worthing East & Shoreham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24686 (49.5%)
Labour: 9737 (19.5%)
Lib Dem: 3360 (6.7%)
Green: 2605 (5.2%)
UKIP: 8267 (16.6%)
NHA: 1243 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 14949 (30%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) Born 1962, Eastbourne. Educated at Priory School and Warwick University. Former fund manager. Contested Sheffield Brightside 1992. First elected as MP for East Worthing and Shoreham in 1997. Parliamentary under-secretary for children and families 2010-2012.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23458 (48%)
Lab: 8087 (17%)
LDem: 12353 (26%)
UKIP: 2984 (6%)
Oth: 1515 (3%)
MAJ: 11105 (23%)
2005
Con: 19548 (44%)
Lab: 11365 (26%)
LDem: 10844 (24%)
UKIP: 2109 (5%)
Oth: 677 (2%)
MAJ: 8183 (18%)
2001
Con: 18608 (43%)
Lab: 12469 (29%)
LDem: 9876 (23%)
UKIP: 1195 (3%)
Oth: 920 (2%)
MAJ: 6139 (14%)
1997
Con: 20864 (40%)
Lab: 12335 (24%)
LDem: 15766 (31%)
Oth: 921 (2%)
MAJ: 5098 (10%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TIM LOUGHTON (Conservative) See above.
TIM MACPHERSON (Labour)
BOB SMYTHERMAN (Liberal Democrat)
MIKE GLENNON (UKIP) Former teacher. West Sussex councillor. Contested Worthing East and Shoreham 2010.
JAMES DOYLE (Green)
CARL WALKER (NHA) University lecturer.
Links
Comments - 255 Responses on “Worthing East & Shoreham”
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  1. “Tory MP Tim Loughton: Sarah Teather was a poor families minister ‘because she didn’t produce one of her own’

    In a speech to Conservative activists, the former minister also blames the 2011 riots on children born out of wedlock and says he will stand up to the ‘ghastly regiment of feminists’ in Parliament”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-tim-loughton-sarah-teather-was-a-poor-families-minister-because-she-didnt-produce-one-of-her-own-8820197.html

  2. Never good to make that kind of personal attack.

    He might be right on the riots but there are many other causes too.

  3. This should be a LibDem target seat just to get rid of this guy…

  4. Too many politicians have had kids outside of wedlock for them to be able to moralise about this kind of thing.

  5. It’s funny because Tim Loughton was an exceptionally quiet member from 1997 to very recently but he’s started making controversial statements on various topics lately.

  6. I think he took getting the sack quite badly

  7. Looks like he’s talking a fair bit of sense on the riots, (which the BBC this evening just said in one sentence without a breath were caused by the Police treatment of Mark Duggan.)

    There were a number of factors behind them though
    and it was poor people who live nearby who suffered the most – something the screechy liberals and lefties should remember.

  8. Around half of children today are “born out of wedlock”. It is a slur on them and their parents (many of whom vote Conservative) to make such a crass, over-generalising remark. For a start, many children born out of wedlock still live with both parents as a normal family. The riots were caused by a small minority of people with very complex and hotly debated causes.

    I really wish the Conservatives would learn the lessons of back to basics and stop falling into this trap. The media love that kind of headline.

  9. The LDs have targetted this seat in the past, to some extent, Antiochian. In the end, even in the Tories’ most disastrous years, they’ve not come close to losing here in a general election, because the LDs have had limited success squeezing the Labour vote in some areas in the east & centre of Shoreham, and vice versa in the east of Worthing where Labour have always been very weak, though it isn’t the poshest part of Worthing. The LDs did control Adur council for quite a number of years but never threatened to win the Shoreham constituency, which was similar but I think never quite coterminous & I think contained some strongly Tory elements outside the town & the borough boundary. As things are now, it’s likely that the Labour vote will rise quite a bit mainly at the expense of the LDs, but that of course will further increase Loughton’s majority. Truth is, even if there were only one main anti-Tory candidate, this area almost certainly would still elect a Tory MP in almost all circumstances.

  10. ‘and vice versa in the east of Worthing where Labour have always been very weak, though it isn’t the poshest part of Worthing.’

    Worthing doesn’t have a posh part – the whole town is a dump

    If anything, the West side, with deligfhtful places like Durrington, is marginally worst

    It says something about just how entrenched the Tory vote still is in places like this, that they hold this seat so comfortably

    Pretty it ain’t

  11. Why don’t you tell Frederic Stansfield

    He thinks Thanet North is the only coastal dump to be a safe Tory seat

  12. I don’t think Worthing is a dump but I do think that parts of this seat within the Adur district are less than salubrious. I do think Tim holds places to an impossibly high standard. This is very promising territory for UKIP

  13. I must say its quite a long time since I’ve been to Worthing – almost 20 years when I spent a little time based in Sussex and maybe it has declined since then. It looked fine to me. Brighton on the other hand was still primarily a dump at that time and has changed quite a lot for the better in that time. Its possible other parts of the Sussex coast have changed for the worse.
    One doesn’t want to be too rude about places like Peacehaven or Lancing given how well UKIP are doing there these days

  14. Lancing is definitely a dump

  15. Maybe Loughton is trying to curry favour with potential UKIP voters in his constituency, however I can’t see them doing well enough for him to lose the seat.

  16. Worthing Borough Council has 37 councillors (12 female councillors and 25 male councillors) in 13 wards:
    23 Conservative
    12 Liberal Democrat
    1 UKIP
    1 Independent

  17. Adur has 29 councillors..

    One UKIP, one LibDem, two independent and the rest Tory.

    The relative weakness of the LD representation here might signal a flaccid local branch and explain why they have not been able to “do an Eastbourne” on this constituency..

  18. I’m hoping Jackie South will be doing one of his excellent articles on this seat

  19. ‘I must say its quite a long time since I’ve been to Worthing – almost 20 years when I spent a little time based in Sussex and maybe it has declined since then. It looked fine to me. Brighton on the other hand was still primarily a dump at that time and has changed quite a lot for the better in that time. Its possible other parts of the Sussex coast have changed for the worse.’

    I’d concur with that. But as Brighton has gone uphill in the last 20 years, the opposite has happened to places like Worthing and Shoreham, that were considerably nicer 20 years ago.

    Of course they pale in comparison to more obvious declining seaside towns like Hastings and Littlehampton, but people – usually preople who haven’t been there of late – do have this misleading view of Worthing as being some kind of upmareking, charming, genteel retirement resort when that’s just not the case, even if it once was

    ‘One doesn’t want to be too rude about places like Peacehaven or Lancing given how well UKIP are doing there these days’

    That merely encourages me to be ruder still – boith of them are sh*tholes!

  20. Loughton seems to be living in the world of the 1950s. The British Social Attitudes survey shows how out of touch his views are. The phrase ‘out of wedlock’ has no stigma anymore the stigma is now on hectoring and lecturing other people on how they should live their personal lives. Its none of his business.

  21. Tim if you’re running an estate agent here you’re not advertising it very well.
    I take it you do something more high tech elsewhere though.

  22. Looks like the Tory vote is still ok long term here – I can’t quite recall the effect of boundary changes but they seem to have moved up a bit more than average since 1997.
    The Labour vote is higher than in 1992 and I suspect will creep up longer term (so more than short term national swings).
    The LDs have declined on Adur section
    but are still second

  23. ‘The LDs have declined on Adur section but are still second’

    The Tories got majorities exceeding 15,000 in the 1980s and early 90s in the old Shoreham seat, and that was when the lib dems were the main party at local level in adur

  24. Compared to the suburban Midlands I’m always a bit surprised how downtrodden some parts of the south coast are.

  25. I think we shouldn’t be surprised. The elderly population have moved from other areas where they were Tory voters and have continued with their traditional voting patterns.

    The Tory councillors they elect though just preside over mouldering infrastructure and seem to take for granted this voter base who are shown to be non-reactive to do-nothing councillors. It’s a case of “frogs in the boiling water”. The minority councillors don’t want to be first to cry “Fire” in the cinema by pointing out that their seaside resort is actually a profound dump for fear that it then gets reporting that they are “trash-talking our town”.

    I noted on here (on the Litllehampton constituency) what a shock a trip to Bognor a few months ago was (George V would have stripped it of its Regis). Its repeated all along the South Coast. The old resort model is broken. The towns need to attract service industry. Look at Bournemouth… booming. Poole is fantastic (though the downtown is dumpy) and in the more traditional seaside resort of Weymouth the council has obviously found a happy medium and the place looked brilliant when I went there recently. Weymouth, Brighton and Bournemouth seemed to have sucked the life out of everything in between.

  26. I might also note that Lymington is also looking in great shape (though not a beach resort .. more of a port). Weymouth I might note is a real fishing port and also has a ferry service to France and the Channel Islands. All this helps in making the town real and not just some failed Victorian construct.

  27. Jemima Bland is the LibDem candidate for 2015. Parliamentary Researcher to John Pugh, MP for Southport.

    Here’s a bio…

    http://www.libdems.org.uk/parliamentary_candidates_detail.aspx?name=Jemima_Bland&pPK=957a8131-fe03-4217-a8cf-551d3709252b

  28. “Adur has 29 councillors..

    One UKIP, one LibDem, two independent and the rest Tory”.

    In response to Antiochean, Labour gained Cokeham ward in 2012.

  29. I got that off the town website so maybe the Tory administration are in denial…

  30. I am not as familiar with this area as I am with neighbouring Brighton & Hove, and in fact rather remarkably have never been to a pub in either this constituency or Worthing W (I have in all other W Sussex constituencies). Is Cokeham ward the one in the far east of the constituency? There are quite a lot of council flats in that area.

  31. Has anyone ever had a pint in every constituency?

  32. I’d be amazed if anyone has had a pint in more than half the constituencies.

  33. I’ll work it out & get back to you. There are even certain London constituencies where I haven’t. The best I’ve ever had would be currently in the Manchester Central seat. The worst pub I’ve ever been to in my life was, perhaps surprisingly, in Oxford E, but that pub has now been bought by Arkells of Swindon, so I presume it must have been improved greatly by now.

  34. Barnaby Cokeham is in the west of Adur district in the Sompting area. It does though include a bunch of council flats which you see from the A27

  35. thanks Pete.

  36. Andy – give or take maybe 3-4, I have had a pint of cask beer in 303 of the present constituencies. So I narrowly fail. I have never been to Northern Ireland (or the Republic for that matter) and my coverage of large parts of rural Wales & Scotland is very limited too. There are even some English counties where I have never had a pint, notably Shropshire & Northumberland.

  37. Which pub in Oxford East Barnaby? The Rusty Bicycle?

  38. “I have never been to Northern Ireland”

    I’m not meaning to put you off, but if you want to visit don’t do it for pubs alone. English ones tend to be a lot better.

  39. I don’t know about pints but I used to enjoy another form of artificial stimulant quite a lot and with a friend used to keep a note of constituencies where this was consumed. I don’t suppose it would represent a very large proportion of constituencies nationally but would cover a large number in London – probably a majority. In terms of frequency Richmond Park would score relatively highly

  40. LOL. Are you talking about Viagara?

  41. Well I guess we all know now what you get up to when you go to Richmond Park HH 😉
    Personally I sit down on the grass and smoke a joint or two, taking in the contrasting (but in their way equally pleasing) vistas – cervine and Corbusian

  42. I have to say Pete (presuming it’s Pete Whitehead) is the last person in the world I would had down as a cannabis inhaler – althougfh I guess it explains the frewquent trips to Amsterdam – my favourite destination for that very reason

  43. I don’t remember the name of the pub in Oxford Joe, but I can tell you it’s in the Marston low-rise council estate. We have friends who used to live in Marston – they’ve moved to Risinghurst now – and were too early when we went to see them. We dropped into the pub which was the nearest & it was really horrible.

  44. Good grief, had no idea there were so many potheads on here!

  45. Explains a lot….

  46. Probably one of the most weirdly drawn seats from 1983 to 1997 was the Shoreham constituency which comprised the following wards/districts:

    District of Adur

    District of Arun:

    Angmering
    East Preston & Kingston
    Ferring
    Findon
    Rustington East
    Rustington North
    Rustington South

    The town of Worthing is of course in between Shoreham and Rustington,

  47. * Loughton (Con) 24,841
    Denham (Lab) 11,414
    Mountshaft (UKIP) 7,165
    Ratner (LD) 6,022
    Hunter (DUP) 1,643
    Flack (Green) 1,521

  48. Apart from the losing candidate’s names, that’s not a bad shot actually – that and the unlikelihood that Loughton will poll more numerical votes in 2015 than he did in 2010.

  49. I thought Tim could have a crack at this one – if it’s just a few minutes down the road,
    hence the Ratner pseudonym would be appt.

  50. Adur District Council, which lies in this seat; could be the first council that UKIP gains control of next year. Half of its seats are up for election therefore on a good day UKIP could be just short of a majority here with two less councillors than the Conservatives:

    UKIP: 11 seats
    CON: 2 seats
    RA: 1 seat

    When these seats are added to the totals for those serving until 2016 we get:

    CON: 14 seats
    UKIP: 12 seats
    RA: 2 seats
    LAB: 1 seat

    If UKIP were able to rely on the support of the Residents Association and Labour, they would be in control of the council.

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