Worsley & Eccles South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12654 (30.1%)
Labour: 18600 (44.2%)
Lib Dem: 1100 (2.6%)
Green: 1242 (3%)
UKIP: 7688 (18.3%)
TUSC: 380 (0.9%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (14.1%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Salford council area.

Main population centres: Walkden, Eccles, Irlam, Worsley.

Profile: Worsley itself is a rather upmarket and desirable residential area, one of the most affluent parts of the borough of Salford. It is, however, only a small part of the seat and is wholly untypical of the constituency as a whole, which is mostly far more working class, made up of former mining towns like Walkden and overspill council estates like Little Hulton. The south-western part of the seat is the green belt farmland of Chat Moss.

Politics: Worsley and Eccles South underwent major changes in 2010, losing parts of the old Worsley seat to Leigh while gaining the southern part of the abolished Leigh seat. Both its predecessors were safe Labour seats, so is this, despite areas of Conservative strength in Worsley itself.


Current MP
BARBARA KEELEY (Labour) Born 1952. Educated at Mount St Mary College and Salford University. Former systems engineer and regeneration consultant. Trafford councillor 1995-2004. First elected as MP for Worsley in 2005. PPS to Jim Murphy 2006-2007, PPS to Harriet Harman 2007-2009, Deputy Leader of the House of Commons 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13555 (33%)
Lab: 17892 (43%)
LDem: 6883 (17%)
UKIP: 2037 (5%)
Oth: 1334 (3%)
MAJ: 4337 (10%)
2005*
Con: 9491 (26%)
Lab: 18859 (51%)
LDem: 6902 (19%)
UKIP: 1694 (5%)
MAJ: 9368 (25%)
2001
Con: 8406 (24%)
Lab: 20193 (57%)
LDem: 6188 (17%)
Oth: 576 (2%)
MAJ: 11787 (33%)
1997
Con: 11342 (24%)
Lab: 29083 (62%)
LDem: 6356 (14%)
MAJ: 17741 (38%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Worsley

Demographics
2015 Candidates
IAIN LINDLEY (Conservative) Contested Worsley and Eccles South 2010.
BARBARA KEELEY (Labour) See above.
KATE CLARKSON (Liberal Democrat)
OWEN HAMMOND (UKIP)
CHRISTOPHER BERTENSHAW (Green)
MAGS MCNALLY (Reality)
GEOFFREY BERG (Independent)
STEVE NORTH (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 52 Responses on “Worsley & Eccles South”
  1. Lab 49
    Con 25
    UKIP 14.5
    LD 6
    Others 5.5

    This seems like a reasonable prediction for 2015.

    Worsley is trending very strongly rightwards

  2. Not sure I’d agree on the percentages the order looks right, I think Labour will be at least 10% up on last time and I think UKIP will be doing well to get over 10%

  3. Actually Worsley itself has always been a strong Tory area. The Tories have also made some progress in the Walkden South marginal ward, but that does appear tied to specific popular local councillors

  4. I agree with Mike. As this is my constituency I can claim some local knowledge at least. My guesstimate for this seat (18 months from the election) would be in the order of:
    Lab 50
    Con 27
    LD 10
    UKIP10
    Oth 3

    Tory vote is quite solid here & even in the Blair landslide years never dipped below 24%. LD support is very flaky though and UKIP isnt particularly strong here and 10% is a generous figure.

  5. Worsley is quietly very well-heeled. Over 47% of the economically active residents are managers, professionals or administrative officials- a very figure, even by national standards.

  6. I wonder how a hypothetical Davyhulme and Worsley would have voted in 2010? I think the Tories might have won that. The same might go for a seat tying Worsley, Irlam, and Boothstown with places like Culceth from Warrington North. I suppose the point I am trying to make is that the Tories still have some half decent areas in the quadrangle between Sale, Warrington, Leigh, and Salford.

  7. Yes that is true Tory, however I would find it hard to advocate those constituencies you suggest, as you are crossing all sorts of council boundaries, not to mention physical boundaries such as the ship canal! Sacrilege.

  8. Under the zombie review, Worsley and Eccles South would have been almost unchanged

    Barton
    Boothstown and Ellenbrook
    Cadishead
    Irlam
    Little Hulton
    Walkden North
    Walkden South
    Winton
    Worsley

  9. Not only are there senior managers & wealthy workers in Worsley & Boothstown, there are some celebrities. I believe Ryan Giggs lives in Worsley.

  10. ManchesterMan- oh I quite agree with you. I was just trying to illustrate that the Tories still have support in that neck of the woods. I am not for one minute advocating crossing the Irwell 🙂

  11. *the Ship canal even.

  12. You can create an almost coherent seat around Worsley which would most likely have been narrowly Tory in 2010: The Salford city wards of Boothstown, Little Hulton, Walkden North, Walkden South, Worsley.
    The Bolton wards of: Hulton, Westhougton North, Westhoughton South
    electorate 71663
    Probably a Conservative majority of 5-600 in 2010

  13. Thanks, Pete, I hadn’t thought of the option of pushing north-east to Westhoughton. Of course Hulton is the Tories’ best ward in Bolton South East if I recall correctly.

  14. Indeed much of the territory of what became Worsley in 1983 was previously associated with what became Bolton SE in the pre-1983 Farnworth constituency. That however was a Labour stronghold.

  15. Ah yes, one of the successor seats to the marvellous Radcliff-cum-Farnworth.

  16. *Radcliffe

  17. I have an aunt and uncle in Eccles. His birthday celebrations were actually in a venue in Worsley during the summer. It is a very beautiful place, I must say.

  18. My cousin is a friend & neighbour of Ryan Giggs who does indeed live in Worsley. Eric Cantona used to live there too. 🙂

  19. I accept the projections for Pete’s (North West Salford/South East Bolton- type) seat, but that would be gerrymandering in the extreme 😉

  20. In the mock review I started a couple of years ago under the old rules using 2010 electorates, I did create a cross borough Bolton/Salford seat called Farnworth and Walkden. I never worked out notionals but I’m guessing it would be a safe Labour seat.

  21. Didn’t realise Barbara Keeley was an engineer. It’s certainly refreshing to know that as it makes a change from the obvious route of would-be MPs.

  22. The other seats in the Bolton/Salford grouping would are:

    Salford (the current Salfrord and Eccles seat plus the Salford wards currently in Blackley and Broughton, minus the Eccles ward and the two Swinton wards).

    Worsley and Eccles (the current Worsley and Eccles South plus the Eccles and Swinton wards and minus the Walkden and Little Hulton wards).

    Farnworth and Walkden (the current Bolton South East minus the Great Lever and Rumworth wards, and Walkden North, Walkden South and Little Hulton wards from Salford).

    Bolton East (the current Bolton North East plus the Great Lever and Rumworth wards, minus Astley Bridge).

    Bolton West (the current Bolton West plus Astley Bridge ward). This seat would have an electorate of over 81,000 but it’s just within the quota + 10,000 limit the boundary commission used under the old rules.

  23. Funnily enough I was playing around with figures (under the old rules) for Greater Manchester last night. I was inspired by a discussion on the Rochdale thread and wanted to re-create Littleborough & saddleworth but ended up doing the whole of GM.
    What I came up with in this area was almost identical to what you describe, the only differences being:
    Salford retained Swinton South
    Eccles & Worsley instead took the Astley Mossley Common ward from Leigh which in turn took the Atherton ward currently in Bolton West. The other Wigan seats were unchanged and my Bolton East and Farnworth seats were identical to yours.
    Bolton West would have a quite healthy Tory majority on these boundaries. It is a bit of a gerrymander as Astley Bridge is quite detached from the rest of this seat and there is probably a decent argument that Halliwell would be a better fit

  24. Pete, regarding Astley Bridge, I chose that over Halliwell ward because I didn’t want to split Bolton town center between two seats when an alternative ward could be transferred instead. But since the roads in that ward run on a north-south basis, I agree that Halliwell would probably be a better ward to go into Bolton West, thus keeping it as a notionally Labour seat.

    My other Greater Manchester changes are:

    Recreate the Manchester Blackley seat by removing the Salford wards from Blackley and Broughton and by gaining the Moston ward from the oversized Manchester Central.

    Have 3 seats entirely in Stockport. Stockport to gain the two Reddish wards and lose Manor ward to Hazel Grove.

    Have 5 seats in a Oldham/Tameside grouping. These would be;

    Ashton-under-Lyne
    Denton and Hyde
    Oldham East
    Oldham West
    Stalybridge and Saddleworth

  25. We agree in Manchester, Trafford and Stockport except that I also added Miles Platting & Newton Heath to Blackley, probably a consequence of using more recent electorates which showed a 5,000 increase on the current Manchester Central electorate between 2010 and 2011 so that it was nearly 90,000 in the latter year. Removing Moston only to Blackley still leaves Central somewhat oversized with c,79,000 voters and Blackley a bit undersized with c. 64,000 while moving MP&NH equalises the electorates somewhat at 75k and 68k respectively (and with the electorate of Central probably still projected to grow I should think)

  26. Pete, do you have any alternative ideas for Oldham and Tameside.

    I’ve done mock reviews for all the met counties, some London boroughs, and some non-met counties which have had changes to the number of seats they’re allocated.

    All the met counties except Greater Manchester lose a seat, so does Lancashire and the following counties gain a seat:

    Isle of Wight
    Somerset
    Surrey
    Berkshire
    Buckinghamshire
    Oxfordshire
    Cambridgeshire
    Leicestershire

    I’ve only worked out detailed proposals for Isle of Wigh, Somerset, Surrey, Oxfordshire and Cambridgeshire so far, although I’ve done all areas of my home region of West Midlands, except for Stoke where I can’t get accurate electoral figures for the new ward boundaries.

  27. “Pete, do you have any alternative ideas for Oldham and Tameside”

    I was just coming to that 😉

    As I mentioned it was the Rochdale discussion which inspired me and what I wanted to do was to re-create something akin to the old LIttleborough & Saddleworth seat and have both Rochdale and Oldham as seats based around their respective core towns (ie the old County boroughs)
    My changes therefore went as follows:
    Heywood & Middleton (64163) – loses Bamford and Castleton to Rochdale
    Rochdale (69973) gains the above and loses Littleborough, Milnrow and Wardle to..
    Littleborough & Saddleworth (72146) comprising those three wards from Rochdale, the Oldham wards of Crompton, Shaw, Saddleworth x 3 and the Tameside ward of Mossley.
    Oldham (72027) the wards of Alexandra, Coldhurst, Hollinwood, Medlock Vale, Royton South, St James, St Mary, Waterhead, Werneth.
    Chadderton & Droylesdon (66085): Royton North, Chadderton x 3, Failsworth x 2, Droylesdon x 2
    Ashton under Lyne & Denton (70119) Ashton x 4, Denton x 3 Audenshaw
    Stalybridge & Hyde (71512) loses Mossley, gains Dukinfield

    I particularly liked the single Oldham seat though it was unfortunate I had to split Royton as ideally I would have liked to include only those wards which were in the old Oldham CB. This would have been too small however. This Oldham seat, even including the not so bad Royton South, would be almost in a league of its own in terms of being a shithole of a constituency

  28. Those are some good suggestions although I’m not too sure about having wards from 3 met boroughs in one constituency though. With current electorates there simply isn’t any need to make changes in Rochdale.

    My proposed Oldham West seat contains the two Failsworth wards, Hollinwood, the three Chadderton wards and the two Royton wards. I think Oldham East contains the whole of the former Oldham county borough except the Hollinwood ward as well as Shaw and Compton. I know these wards don’t really fit well with the rest of the constituency, but I tried a number of other solutions, but this was the one I felt worked best.

    Stalybridge and Saddleworth would contain the three Saddleworth wards from Oldham and the Mossley, Stalybridge North, Stalybridge South and Dunkinfield Stalybridge wards from Tameside.

    Aston-under-Lyne having lost Failsworth to Oldham West would gain Audenshaw and Dunkinfield from Denton and Reddish.

    Denton and Hyde would contain the 3 Denton wards, the 3 Hyde wards and the Longendale ward.

  29. Pete- funny you should mention Littleborough and Saddleworth. On the Rochdale thread I asked how it would have voted in 2010. We thought it would be a Lib Dem win but any more concrete ideas?

  30. By the way, I like Pete’s proposals a lot. I am definitely in favour of having more seats composed of core towns where possible.

    But Adam’s Saddleworth and Stalybridge also intrigues me, not least because it would include territory from three traditional counties: Lancashire (Lees); Yorkshire (Saddleworth); and Cheshire (everywhere else). I think there is something to be said for that proposal. I know that Saddleworth Parish Council were pushing for a South Pennines seat during the aborted review, which would have tied Saddleworth, Stalybridge and Littleborough. They also favour a South Pennines local authority, which in their view would tie together areas with a similar character and facing similar issues.

  31. Mossley itself was oringally divided between all three counties and the local parish wards are named Cheshire, Lancashire and Yorkshire accordingly.

    I did see your post on the Rochdale thread and was going to reply to it but got waylaid. I do agree that the LDs would have carried L&S in 2010 but by a very narrow margin over the Tories. IN 2001 and 2005 it would have been a narrow lead over Labour with a slightly larger (but no more than about 5%) lead in 1997

  32. Re Astley Bridge

    I don’t think it would be too illogical to put it in Bolton West, though historically it was in Bolton East of course. If you drive along the Moss Bank Way from Astley Bridge you’re in Smithills soon enough. It would be a gerrymander but a partially defensible one.

  33. Pete- I never knew that about Mossley- excellent stuff.

    Thanks for your answer re Littleborough and Saddleworth.

  34. The idea of a South Pennines local authority sounds interesting. I’m guessing it’d have to be a met borough, but would it also contain parts of West Yorkshire, the High Peak and maybe even parts of South Yorkshire. Then there’s the issue of which county to place it in for the statutory joint services, would it be financially viable, where would it be based and what would the knock on effect be for neighboring authorities.

  35. This constituency seems unusually because like Don Valley and Ed Balls constituency it appears to be a traditional rock solid Labour constituency that have moved to the Tories in a part of the country where even safe Tory seats have become Labour.

    How have the Tories bucked the trend in some urban Northern constituencies?

  36. Tories are fielding Cllr Iain Lindley here again in May. Not sure if it’s a recent selection, but I’ve only just spotted it.

  37. Labour Hold. 8,000 majority.

  38. Iain Lindley underperformed her again in the General (unlike his performance in the locals).

    There was a huge surge in the UKIP vote to 18%.

  39. Underperformed? Ouch! Sticks and stones, and all that…

    Underperformed relative to what though? The demographically similar seats in Greater Manchester seats all showed a slight swing to Labour – Bury South, Stalybridge and Hyde, Heywood and Middleton, Bolton North East.

    Not compared to any pre-election forecasts either, all the predictions on here had me losing heavily with a percentage that would have taken my Council seat down with it (still here, with much grinding of teeth from the Salford Labour Party).

    Against a Labour candidate with far more money and boots on the ground, and five years groundwork rather than five months, it wasn’t too bad. With a bit more time and a few more people I could probably have squeezed the majority down a bit more on 2010 but it was not to be.

  40. Interestingly on the UKIP vote, where we had the resources to run a full campaign, the UKIP vote stalled, and where we didn’t, it ran away from us a bit. In Walkden South the raw Conservative vote increased by 1000 compared to the 2014 locals, but the UKIP vote only went up by 100.

  41. Kudos to you for staying to fight your own patch again even though this was clearly always going to be a comfortable Labour win. With such a good result from 2010 most aspiring candidates would have carpetbagged a safe seat further south. I do not agree with Lancs Observer’s unusually nasty comment; Labour did pretty well in their traditionally safe seats in urban Greater Manchester and, against that, your result was very respectable.

  42. ‘The demographically similar seats in Greater Manchester seats all showed a slight swing to Labour – Bury South, Stalybridge and Hyde, Heywood and Middleton, Bolton North East.’

    Are they demographically similar

    I always thought Worsley was considerably more up-market than any of the seats you list, and therefore ought to be a better Tory prospect

  43. As per the seat description – Worsley is a “small part of the constituency”. The rest of the seat is far from upmarket and is large enough to make this a relatively safe Labour seat outside of a 1983 style landslide (not even sure the Tories would have won it then).

  44. Worsley & Boothstown are very upmarket indeed. So to a rather lesser extent is one of the Walkden wards. The rest of the seat however is surely considerably downmarket of most of Bury S. Bury S is relatively socially homogenous, Stalybridge & Hyde is too, though generally rather poorer with the exception of Stalybridge S ward, but Heywood & Middleton & Bolton NE are rather polarised seats with some Tory hotspots but a number of wards where Labour is very far ahead of the Tories indeed – rather like this seat.

  45. Snap

  46. If anything this seat is more Labour-inclined than the pre-2010 Worsley which didn’t have the Labour-voting wards included here represented by the generic “Eccles South” term. Labour fairly comfortably held that seat in 1983, and would presumably have won this one by slightly more still, despite the big Tory leads in Worsley & Boothstown (and presumably one of the Walkden wards too).

  47. Swings and roundabouts I think Barnaby. The Astley area is more Conservative-leaning than Winton or Barton but I don’t think you could say the same for Tyldesley or Atherton. Remember also that two-fifths of Worsley ward itself was never in the old Worsley seat (most of what I’d call “South Moorside” was in the old Swinton South ward and therefore the Eccles constituency.

  48. A very belated response to Iain L – It’s good to see PPCs on here, so thanks for the responses of May 2015.

    However, I fail to see how the following result can be seen as anything but ‘underperforming’ (I admit you performed strongly in the Locals though and bucked the trend in that regard as I mentioned on the old site):

    W & E S 2015

    Lab 44% + 1%
    Con 30% – 2.5%
    UKIP 18.5% + 13.5%
    Green 3% + 3%
    LDs 3% -14%
    Others 2% + 2%

    Indeed the Tory vote & share stands out as having fallen compared with the rest.

    Plus I’m not sure who else is to blame for your admitted 5 months’ time spent as you were the PPC in both 2010 & 2015. The Labour majority increased by 4% was my point, so it wasn’t that you didn’t manage, ‘to squeeze the majority down a bit more’ – it went in the opposite direction.

  49. Lancs

    Tbf, I can’t see any disagreement between Ian’s assessment and your post (except perhaps the bit about the ‘5 months not 5 years bit’ – although personally I would hesitate to make such comments without knowing the background to that selection and the PPC’s other job etc.

  50. A MEN journalist is describing this as “a bit close for comfort”. Surely this is beyond the Tories’ grasp? Otherwise it would be an utterly calamitous night for Labour!

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