Wolverhampton South West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16573 (41.2%)
Labour: 17374 (43.2%)
Lib Dem: 845 (2.1%)
Green: 1058 (2.6%)
UKIP: 4310 (10.7%)
Independent: 49 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 801 (2%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands. Part of the Wolverhampton council area.

Main population centres: Wolverhampton.

Profile: The city of Wolverhampton is at the north-western corner of the West Midlands urban area. It was an industrial city and while the service sector now dominates, engineering is still an important part of the local economy, particularly aerospace. Other important local employers are Chubb and Tarmac. Wolverhampton South West is a mixed seat, including the City centre itself and some of the more inner-city and deprived areas of Wolverhampton, but then stretching out to include the city`s affluent suburbs like Tettenhall. It has a high proportion of ethnic minority voters - predominantly Sikh - particularly in the inner city wards.

Politics: Wolverhampton South West has traditionally been the most Conservative of the Wolverhampton seats, it used to be regarded as a safe Conservative seat, held by the party from 1950 until 1997, most famously by Enoch Powell who represented the area until 1974 when he stood down and called upon people to vote Labour. The Conservative party`s difficulties in attracting votes from ethnic minorities have no doubt added to their problems here and since 1997 they have held the seat only between 2010 and 2015.


Current MP
ROB MARRIS (Labour) Born 1955, Wolverhampton. Educated at St Edwards School, Oxford and University of British Columbia. Former solicitor. MP for Wolverhampton South West 2001-2010. First elected as MP for Wolverhampton South West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16344 (41%)
Lab: 15653 (39%)
LDem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (4%)
Oth: 246 (1%)
MAJ: 691 (2%)
2005*
Con: 15610 (37%)
Lab: 18489 (44%)
LDem: 5568 (13%)
UKIP: 1029 (2%)
Oth: 983 (2%)
MAJ: 2879 (7%)
2001
Con: 16248 (40%)
Lab: 19735 (48%)
LDem: 3425 (8%)
GRN: 805 (2%)
Oth: 684 (2%)
MAJ: 3487 (9%)
1997
Con: 19539 (40%)
Lab: 24657 (50%)
LDem: 4012 (8%)
Oth: 713 (1%)
MAJ: 5118 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
PAUL UPPAL (Conservative) Born 1967, Birmingham. Educated at Harborne Hill Comprehensive and Warwick University. Contested Birmingham Yardley 2005. MP for Wolverhampton South West 2010 to 2015.
ROB MARRIS (Labour) Born 1955, Wolverhampton. Educated at St Edwards School, Oxford and University of British Columbia. Solicitor. MP for Wolverhampton South West 2001-2010.
NEALE UPSTONE (Liberal Democrat)
DAVE EVERETT (UKIP) Small businessman.
ANDREA CANTRILL (Green)
BRIAN BOOTH (Independent)
Links
Comments - 265 Responses on “Wolverhampton South West”
  1. Curious that there are so few posters up. On my way to work I drive through three utterly safe Conservative seats in Kent – and I see plenty of posters, blue, red and yellow.

    It would seem that parties are allocating their resources unwisely…

  2. I have also seen very few, except along the road into Enfield where both Joan Ryan and Nick de Bois has lots of signs in farmers fields.

    Generally I don’t think they’re a great indicator of campaigning intensity – the parties probably consider resources better spent on direct mail and the like.

  3. PT – that probably just reflects where Party members of all Parties live.

    Posters aren’t just no longer an indication of the level of support in an area, they can even be almost the opposite of that, also more so in the locals. ie the only study I’m aware of in this area by LJMU in Merseyside in around 2004 noted both the number of posters for the respective Parties and checked the Marked Registers.

    In one ward in Merseyside, Labour had 220 posters displayed, but amazingly only 60% of these voted in that ward. To be fair to Labour that could be because at that time they were very unpopular in local govt terms, but might also indicate that some thought the ward was safe so didn’t bother voting (in that year – 2002 – Labour in fact only won 3 of the then 33 wards in the whole of Lpool), so a mixture of Labour voters staying at home and some voting LD/Lib/Ind/etc was apparently to blame.

    This led to a whole rethink by Labour NW HQ and a panel was imposed to select candidates in future – which proved successful from 2006 onwards with Labour eventually regaining control in 2010. Apologies for going off topic a bit, but that does seem to indicate that posters are not the indicator that they undoubtedly were in the 1970s and ’80s.

  4. The BBC just did a piece here on how ethnic minorities will vote.

    It showed 5 Sikhs voting Conservative, including 2 who voted Labour last time.

    The smaller black community was more loyal to Labour, although one lady who normally votes Labour said she may not vote this time.

  5. Out of all the 10 seats Labour gained in 2015 from the Tories, this now has the smallest Labour majority.

  6. It was also the only one where the MP was standing down. These facts may or may not be linked.

  7. It was also the only one in the Midlands and it also had one of the smaller increase in total voters.

  8. All three neighbouring seats – Wolverhampton SE, NE, plus Staffordshire South – had swings to the Tories. In that context, the 1.5% swing to Labour here looks a good result for them. As BM11 says, it’s probably because of the overall pattern of results in the West Midlands.

  9. The overall swing in the West Midlands was 1.2% to Labour

  10. Ethnicity must have played a major part, but then there is a large non-white in Wolverhampton SE too and that swung to the Tories.

  11. Yes, both Wolverhampton SW and SE are roughly 25-30% non-white, so the differential swings of 1.5% to Labour and 3.8% to the Tories in SE is interesting – as is the fact that such a heavily non-while seat as Wolv’n SE swung to the Tories at all.

    I think the difference may be down to social class, as I think SW has by some way a more middle class population.

  12. Southeast backed Brexit by more I think. I think the BAME population in Wolves was not much less for leave than the white population unlike Birmingham where the highest Bame% wards tended to vote for remain.

  13. Er… is this sarcasm?

  14. For real though, I’m in two minds about this.

    On the one hand, it’s not being presented on its own, it’s being interspersed with commentary, most of which will presumably be about how wrong it was, both morally and factually – and it is undoubtedly one of the most significant speeches in British history, which must be reflected upon, however painful that might be for some. (Those who forget the past are condemned to repeat it.)

    On the other hand, Leave.EU and their fellow travellers will merely re-edit it to cut out the commentary and present the speech uncritically, even supportively, in all its unvarnished horror. And there’s every chance the latter version will get more engagement.

  15. I did not make that post above.

    Given I only observe this site occasionally,
    if anyone sees anymore posts like that which I haven’t picked up on, then they won’t be mine either.

    Posted by the Real Joe James B

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