Wolverhampton North East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10174 (29.9%)
Labour: 15669 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 935 (2.7%)
Green: 701 (2.1%)
UKIP: 6524 (19.2%)
MAJORITY: 5495 (16.2%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands. Part of the Wolverhampton council area.

Main population centres: Wolverhampton, Wednesfield.

Profile: The city of Wolverhampton is at the north-western corner of the West Midlands urban area. It was an industrial city and while the service sector now dominates, engineering is still an important part of the local economy, particularly aerospace. Other important local employers are Chubb and Tarmac. Wolverhampton North East is a tough, working class seat, with a large proportion of social housing (particularly the large inter-war Low Hill housing estate), few professional or managerial workers and fewer ethnic minority voters than the other two Wolverhampton seats.

Politics: Generally a Labour seat, though it was briefly held by the Conservatives between 1987 and 1992.


Current MP
EMMA REYNOLDS (Labour) Born 1977, Wolverhampton. Educated at Codsall High School and Oxford University. Former special advisor to Geoff Hoon. First elected as MP for Wolverhampton North East in 2010. Shadow Housing Minister 2013-2015, Shadow Communities Secretary 2015. Declined to serve under Jeremy Corbyn.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11964 (34%)
Lab: 14448 (41%)
LDem: 4711 (14%)
BNP: 2296 (7%)
Oth: 1475 (4%)
MAJ: 2484 (7%)
2005*
Con: 9792 (30%)
Lab: 17948 (54%)
LDem: 3845 (12%)
UKIP: 1371 (4%)
MAJ: 8156 (25%)
2001
Con: 9019 (29%)
Lab: 18984 (60%)
LDem: 2494 (8%)
UKIP: 997 (3%)
MAJ: 9965 (32%)
1997
Con: 11547 (28%)
Lab: 24534 (59%)
LDem: 2214 (5%)
Oth: 1916 (5%)
MAJ: 12987 (31%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DARREN HENRY (Conservative)
EMMA REYNOLDS (Labour) See above.
IAN JENKINS (Liberal Democrat)
STAR ETHERIDGE (UKIP)
BECKY COOPER (Green)
Links
Comments - 44 Responses on “Wolverhampton North East”
  1. Which seats has Fordhouses been in?

  2. Never heard of Fordhouses so can’t help on this one.

  3. Fordhouses is an area, that resides in the Oxley ward and straddles the 449 Stafford Rd, pretty sure its been in the North East parliamentary seat for at least 30 years

  4. My forecast for 2015 here:

    Lab 49
    Con 26
    UKIP 16
    LD 5
    Others 4

  5. Anyone got any rumours on whos standing in local elections for Labour and the Conservatives?

  6. Today’s “Independent” reports an analysis of the comparative effect of a rise in the UKIP vote on the Tory and Labour Parties, produced by the Fabian Society. Some of thses analyses seem to me questionnable but it includes a group of Labour sets in the West Midlands, two in Birmingham, two in Walsall, this seat and Telford.I am commenting for this seat because it is, admitttedly from a long time ago, one I know more about than most of the others.

    The analysis would suggest that there ia a group of seats near to concentrations of ethnic minority voters where whtie voters are deserting Labour for UKIO. The beneficiaries politically may be the Tories in the short-term. but it could at a social level have grim implications for community relations.

    Labour have gone down a line of “positive discrimination” which as it increases in scale becomes effectively active discrimination against the indigenous community and favouritism for certain minorities. Too many naive and unreasonably idealistic Labour supporters, I would sugggest not least Ed MIliband, just don’t seem to see the problem, and try to suppress rather than engage in debate those who try to raise the urgency of this potentially disastrous situation.

    Labour too often seems to rely on its supporters acting like turkeys voting for Christmas, but some of them are waking up to the fact that they are being sacrificed. This could cost Labour dearly.

  7. Al Derby confirmed as standing for Class War.

  8. The Lib Dem candidate is Ian Jenkins, who has previously stood in a number of different seats over the years- Dudley East in 1992, The Wrekin in 1997 and 2001, Telford in 2005 and Aldridge-Brownhills in 2010.

  9. Labour hold – Majority 5,500.

  10. seems a bit low. more like 7,000 l reckon

  11. The West Midlands is one region where the Tory vote appears to be holding up better than in London and the North West…perhaps Labour’s majority will be pegged back to 3500 or so.

  12. Agree with Barnaby. Lab majority of 7k seems about right and a tight race for 2nd place between UKIP and Tories.

    Lib Dems may well lose their deposit.

  13. Lib Dems will lose their deposits throughout the Black Country. An expensive night for them. It would be interesting to speculate where the lowest Lib Dem vote will be.

  14. Labour Hold. 9,000 majority.

  15. I found this quite a disappointing result.
    The Tories did well here in 1987 and still did in 1992.
    Not sure why Wolverhampton has had such a weak swing in 2010 and now firmly back in Labour territory in 2015.

  16. Looks like I got my prediction here almost spot on.

  17. Mine too. The best Liberal result in the black country was 3.4%. The lowest was Dudley North at a remarkable 1.3%. This was however only the second lowest in England as they got just 80 votes in Castle Point.

  18. The Lib Dems got 801 votes in Castle Point – the result was read out wrong at the count. So Durley North may well be the lowest in England.

  19. Indeed- that officially makes Dudley North the worst seat for the Lib Dems anywhere in England.

  20. That’s a shame – 80 votes is hilarious, 801 less so.

  21. The Castle Point returning officer had one important job to do: to read out the result correctly. He mucked it up.

  22. Thanks for the correction – I have revised my stats. There are always errors like this in the reported results, and often they never get corrected in published figures.

  23. I wonder if they’ll get even less votes somewhere next time!

  24. They might do if they continue to be one more of an irrelevance nationally.

  25. Who knows – we may end up going back to the days when they didn’t even field candidates in a lot of seats.

  26. I think this seat is just about winnable in one go for the Lib Dems, but it’s going to be a street by street effort, perhaps starting with the Low Hill bit to get split representatikon there.
    By the mid term should have more stupendous momentum under way and just make it in time for a Lib Dem win in 2020.

  27. 63-37 Leave. Seems a wider victory than I expected.

  28. Astonishing result.

  29. That is shockingly poor for Remain.

  30. Friday 11.07am 7 May 2020

    LD GAIN
    Wolverhampton North East

    LD 326 Con 155 Lab 133 SNP 1 UKIP 1 Green 1 DUP 7 UU 2 SDLP 3

    650-324
    326
    ************
    LIB DEM VICTORY
    ************

  31. ‘Astonishing result.’

    Is it really?

    With its broken down factories and host of scrapyards I would have thought Wolverhampton exactly the sort of place to back Leave by a considerable margin

    There were results in similar, albeit more white, places like Dudley and Nuneaton

  32. The former MP Kevin Purchase has passed away

  33. Labour activists can’t even be bothered to get their own MPs names right now. No wonder they are a shambles.

    *OK, no more partisan posts this week I promise*

  34. Pedants should always be welcome on this site IMO.

  35. Correcting a slightly misspelled obscure place name is pedantic. Paying tribute to a long serving MP on your own side and getting his name totally wrong (rather than a slight misspelling) is disrespectful.

  36. HHemmelig: on that note, I remember Gordon Brown paying tribute to “Jane” Goody shortly after her death. The press had a field day with that one.

  37. Definitely agree with HH on this one.

  38. Like so many of the Labour seats in the West Midlands, the result in W’ton North East will be heavily dependent on what happens to the 2015 UKIP vote. Should it halve, to the benefit of the Conservatives, the seat becomes close and Emma Reynolds will have to shore up her vote as best she can. If it remains resilient, she is probably safe.

    Worth noting that the seat was barely held by Labour in 83, actually narrowly lost in 87 and only recovered in 92, despite being predominantly working class and with a large proportion of council housing (it still is well above the national average). Labour’s position has improved since then, partly due to the general economic decline in this neck of the woods, and most recently they have won all the previously marginal wards in the constituency (Oxley, Bushbury North, both Wednesfields) fairly consistently. But should Labour’s campaign tank, this could be a long shot Conservative target on 8th June.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)