Wokingham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 32325 (57.7%)
Labour: 8132 (14.5%)
Lib Dem: 7572 (13.5%)
Green: 2092 (3.7%)
UKIP: 5516 (9.9%)
Independent: 358 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 24193 (43.2%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. Parts of West Berkshire and Wokingham council areas.

Main population centres: Wokingham, Earley, Winnersh, Burghfield Common, Shinfield, Riseley, Spencers Wood.

Profile: The seat curves around the south of Reading, from the town of Wokingham itself in the East, the town of Earley, which grew rapidly through private developement in the 1970s and 80s and then curling through Reading`s rural hinterland to the west. Like other Thames Valley seats along the M4 this is affluent, middle class seat and home to company headquarters and high-tech industry. The seat contains the Atomic Weapons Establishment at Burghfield, the Thames Valley Police Training College at Sulhamstead and part of the University of Reading, which straddles the constituency border.

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, represented by the Conservatives since its creation in 1950.


Current MP
JOHN REDWOOD (Conservative) Born 1951, Dover. Educated at Kent College and Oxford University. Former banker. Oxfordshire county councillor 1973-1977. Contested Peckham by-election 1982. First elected as MP for Wokingham in 1987. Junior minister at the DTI 1989-1992, minister for local government 1992-1993, Secretary of State for Wales 1993-1995. Shadow trade secretary then shadow environment secretary 1997-2000. Shadow deregulation secretary 2004-2005. Redwood resigned from the cabinet in 1995 to contest the Conservative leadership after John Major resigned to provoke a contest, he gained 89 votes. Contested 1997 Conservative leadership election, coming third and backing Ken Clarke in the final round.
Past Results
2010
Con: 28754 (53%)
Lab: 5516 (10%)
LDem: 15262 (28%)
UKIP: 1664 (3%)
Oth: 3332 (6%)
MAJ: 13492 (25%)
2005*
Con: 22174 (48%)
Lab: 6991 (15%)
LDem: 14934 (32%)
UKIP: 994 (2%)
Oth: 979 (2%)
MAJ: 7240 (16%)
2001
Con: 20216 (46%)
Lab: 7633 (17%)
LDem: 14222 (32%)
UKIP: 897 (2%)
Oth: 880 (2%)
MAJ: 5994 (14%)
1997
Con: 25086 (50%)
Lab: 8424 (17%)
LDem: 15721 (31%)
Oth: 877 (2%)
MAJ: 9365 (19%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JOHN REDWOOD (Conservative) See above.
ANDY CROY (Labour) Accountant and former teacher.
CLIVE JONES (Liberal Democrat) Born Kent. Businessman.
PHIL CUNNINGHAM (UKIP)
ADRIAN WINDISCH (Green) Educated at JFS Comprehensive and Westminster and Southampton universities. Engineer. Contested Reading West 2005, 2010.
KAZ LOKUCIEWSKI (Independent)
Links
Comments - 116 Responses on “Wokingham”
  1. Oh no don’t get me wrong 200 votes is a big deal it’s the difference of about 5%

  2. Oh dear, I see my former MP is having trouble with reality again:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/apr/21/john-redwood-mocked-for-telling-people-to-buy-non-existent-british-cars

    P.S. Peppermintea , how many threads have you posted stuff about St Albans on? They seem to be all over the place.

  3. John Redwood has been made Sir John Redwood.

  4. Urgh.

  5. “Urgh.”

    Much as I personally dislike Redwood, I can’t deny he’s been one of the defining Conservative political figures for the last 30 years with a lot of strings to his bow, and therefore IMO much more deserving of a knighthood than a faceless obscure backbencher like Gary Streeter or John Hayes.

    – He was head of Thatcher’s policy unit in the 1980s (I think)

    – Cabinet minister early 1990s

    – Had the balls to challenge Major for the leadership, alone amongst the backstabbing right, and did relatively well in the circumstances

    – Leadership challenger in 1997 also, and member of Hague’s shadow cabinet.

    He’s anti-Deal and probably voted against May in the VONC so it makes her look magnanimous.

  6. I’m not doubting his talent or intellect, and you’re quite right that far less deserving people have also been knighted/ honoured. Still creepy af though.

  7. Another constituency poll:

    CON: 42% (-15)
    LDEM: 38% (+22)
    LAB: 12% (-13)
    BREX: 5% (+5)
    GRN: 3% (+1)

    via @Survation, 01 – 04 Nov
    Chgs. w/ GE2017 result

  8. A business contact of mine, who would make Hitler look like a bleeding heart leftie, moved from Wokingham to Newark last year. So that’s one less vote Redwood will be getting. I do sense a gradual demographic shift against the Tories in these Thames Valley seats, though most of them will be held easily this time.

  9. Tactical voting going on there for Philip Lee, one guesses.

    Despite the poll, current bookies odds:
    CON 2/7
    LAB 5/2

  10. Given the above Survation poll, are you sure you don’t mean Lib Dem 5/2?

  11. The realignment in British politics caused by Brexit is currently far more beneficial to the right than left

    Aside from London, Ulster, Scotland and the big cities, the only other parts of the country Remain were dominant was in the Thanes Valley seats – which like this one, mostly have towering Tory majorities

    I can’t help thinking that the spectre of a Corbyn-led governments will cause voters in seats like this – and St Albans – to endorse their no deal-supporting incumbents at the ballot box, albeit reluctantly

  12. I should just remind people putting too much weight on Lib Dem polling, back in 2015 Lord Ashcrofts polling in individual constituemcies tended to show Lib Dems holding quite a lot of seats. These included leads of as much as 9% in Cambridge and 14 or 19% in others which they were defenfing.
    And they went on to lose every sinhle one of them-many quite easily.

    So when we see polling showing shock Lib Dem gains in seats like Wokingham, remember that the poll sample is tiny, its method is designed to help the Lib Dems and it includes people saying they will vote for them who have got absolutely no intention of dping so!

  13. Tim is right re the split.

    Even in the big cities, Birmingham, Sheffield, Sunderland, Stoke all voted Leave.

    The BBC just showed a graph…

    Leave is roughly split: 40% Cons, 10% Brexit, DUP 1%

    Remain is split something like Lab 25%, LD 17%, Green 5%, SNP 3%, Plaid 1%

    Boris could actually fall down 3 or 4% (from May’s 2017) but with 39% or 40% he’s more likely to get a majority bigger than DC did with 36% or Major did with 42%. Simply due to the LDs taking eg 3,000 Labour votes in 50 odd seats.

    The Brexit Party are polling higher than UKIP did in 2017 but not 2015.

  14. Shaun

    The big difference between now and 2015 is that LD are polling double what they were then, nationally.

    Added to which that they are obviously going to be doing a lot better in certain types of seats, it’s not inconceivable they increase vote shares by 30% or so in some seats. . . in some ways not dissimilar to the way SCON did in Scotland (e.g. Gordon and others) in 2017.

    Though regarding this area specifically, I think there is a good chance of what Tim describes happening: past Con voters returning to the fold in enough numbers, for fear of Corbyn/Scottish Independence etc.

  15. Sir John Redwood – still doesn’t sound right – enjoys a majority of over 18,000 here and even if the lib dems do make the sort of gains the Tories did in Scotland in 2017, surely here will be beyond their reach, even with a sitting MP as their candidate

    I note the Labour candidate in 2001 was ex table tennis champion and now highly acclaimed sports writer Matthew Syed. He would have made a very electable candidate and having previously stood in Oxford & Abingdon, an equally unwinnable seat for Labour, I’m quite surprised he didn’t run somehere in London

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