Windsor

2015 Result:
Conservative: 31797 (63.4%)
Labour: 6714 (13.4%)
Lib Dem: 4323 (8.6%)
Green: 1834 (3.7%)
UKIP: 4992 (10%)
Independent: 500 (1%)
MAJORITY: 25083 (50%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Berkshire. The eastern part of the Windsor and Maidenhead council area, three Bracknell Forest wards from the north of the town and one ward from Slough.

Main population centres: Windsor, Eton, Ascot, Sunninghill, Sunningdale, Cranbourne, Winkfield, Colnbrook, Poyle.

Profile: A historic seat that has sent an MP to Westminster since the fourteenth century. It stretches from the outskirts of Bracknell in the west to the towns of Windsor and Eton in the east, the hearts of upper class privilege. Windsor is the town that grew up around Windsor Castle, the lavish residence of her Majesty the Queen, across the Thames is Eton, home to the country`s most prestigious public school that has educated generations of the priviledged classes (including Prime Minister David Cameron, and eighteen of his predecessors). To the south of Windsor is the Great Park, the former royal hunting grounds now a park owned by the crown estate and open to the public, and beyond that the villages of Sunninghill, Sunningdale, Cranbourne, Wraybury and Ascot, home to the famous racecourse.

Politics: As might be expected, this is a rock solid Tory seat and has returned a Conservative MP since 1874. When elected in 2005 Adam Afriyie was the first ever black Conservative Member of Parliament.


Current MP
ADAM AFRIYIE (Conservative) Born 1965, Wimbledon. Educated at Addey and Stanhope School and Wye College. Former businessman and entrepreneur. First elected as MP for Windsor in 2005. He was the first black Conservative MP.
Past Results
2010
Con: 30172 (61%)
Lab: 4910 (10%)
LDem: 11118 (22%)
UKIP: 1612 (3%)
Oth: 1776 (4%)
MAJ: 19054 (38%)
2005*
Con: 21646 (50%)
Lab: 8339 (19%)
LDem: 11354 (26%)
UKIP: 1098 (3%)
Oth: 1256 (3%)
MAJ: 10292 (24%)
2001
Con: 19900 (47%)
Lab: 10137 (24%)
LDem: 11011 (26%)
UKIP: 1062 (3%)
MAJ: 8889 (21%)
1997
Con: 24476 (48%)
Lab: 9287 (18%)
LDem: 14559 (29%)
Oth: 783 (2%)
MAJ: 9917 (20%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ADAM AFRIYIE (Conservative) See above.
FIONA DENT (Labour)
GEORGE FUSSEY (Liberal Democrat)
TARIQ MALIK (UKIP)
DEREK WALL (Green) Economics lecturer and author. Contested Bath 1987, Windsor 2005, 2010. Contested Bristol 1989 European election, South East England 2009, 2014 European elections. Principal speaker of the Green Party 2006-2008.
WISDOM DA COSTA (Independent) Educated at Slough Grammar School. Chartered accountant. Windsor and Maidenhead councillor.
Links
Comments - 50 Responses on “Windsor”
  1. Did anyboidy catch the Adam Afriyie interview on Sunday Politics

    I thought he came across poorly, was unable to answer any of the questions Neil was asking – or effectively sidestep them – and certainly didn’t seem like leadership material

    Maybe he’s another Archie Norman – a great businessman but a mediocre politician

    Sad really in a day where we need more politicians who have been successful in the real world

  2. I think anyone who has lived in the real world for an extended period of time would be an improvement, not just someone who’s “successful”. Manual workers may not meet many people’s definition of successful, but often they have made excellent MPs & ministers.

  3. This seat, incidentally, is only 3 constituencies away from my own – but even I can’t say I’ve heard of Cranbourne which Anthony mentions as a centre of population. He doesn’t mention Datchet though which surely is included in the seat?

  4. I’ve not heard of Cranbourne either,
    and I’ve spent quite a lot of time over here in 2007 and 2011 helping to decapitate Lib Dems.
    (some small part).

    Perhaps it’s one of the Bracknell Forest wards
    although I thought that was mainly just Winkfield.

  5. The various Clewers are part of Windsor itself, so it’s not that.
    I’m sure Anthony is right though.

  6. I should probably rename the description from “Main population centres” to something else, because everyone is understandably interpreting that as meaning “largest settlements by population” when I really just intended it to list significant places that are included within the seat, so someone reading the page would know what sort of places it covers (hence the inclusion of some relatively small villages sometimes – picked as the largest settlements in rural parts of a seat).

    Oh, and JJB is right – Cranbourne is part of the Bracknell Forest wards, it is a village to the east of Winkfield on the edge of the Great Park, roughly in the centre of the seat

  7. The main population centre is Windsor. Ascot and Sunningdale and Sunninghill come next, with three wards in the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead and one in called Ascot in Bracknell Forest, but actually part of Winkfield Parish. Cranbourne is quite small and is the area north of Ascot racecourse and another Winkfield parish ward. Binfield and Warfield, which is partly rural, and Warfield Harvest Ride, which is new housing developments are the other wards in Bracknell Forest.
    In Windsor Town there are three wards described as Clewer to the west of the town. One of these includes Windsor Racecourse – there can’t be many seats with two. there are two other Windsor Town seats – Park and Castle Without.
    Probably the most interesting ward is Eton and Castle which includes Eton College and Windsor Castle and straddles the Thames. To the east is Old Windsor which includes much of Windsor Great Park and reaches to Runneymead.
    The seat also has Eton Wick, a 20th century overspill to Eton, where the college staff lived and now a commuter village. Also north of the river are Datchet, Wraysbury and Horton. Colnbrook and Poyle is the single Slough Borough Ward in the seat, which is a transport hub for Heathrow Airport now, but was a coaching stop on the Bath Road.

    Politically blue, Windsor turned up large majorities during the Conservatives worst years. Now they hold most of the councillors except a single Liberal and five independents in RBWM and a Labour Councillor in Slough. The Liberals dominated Windsor Town in the 1990’s and 2000’s – but no more.

  8. Cllr Wilson Hendry died last month. He was a LibDem for 20 years and a Conservative since 2010. He represented Pinkneys Green ward on the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead Council.

  9. Pinkneys Green appears to be in the Maidenhead part of the borough so may not be in the Windsor seat..

  10. prediction for 2015-

    con- 57%
    Lib- 19%
    Lab- 14%
    UKIP- 8%
    green- 2%

  11. It is too early for predictions of this nature.

    However the Lib Dems have fallen back and are much less active than a few years ago. It is possible that, as in Richmond, the high house prices have acted to weaken their support base, with older residents cashing in and retiring elsewhere, whilst only the younger affluent can come here.

    Labour have some small pockets of opportunity, but even their best ward – Colnbrook and Poyle is a split ward with one Labour and one Conservative councilor elected in May this year.

    UKIP should find it hard to get traction against Adam Afriyie. I suspect there are still a few people who don’t like his ethnicity and will vote UKIP as a result, but his views on Europe are very clear.

    The Greens have shown little activity here, but may pick up disaffected Lib Dems.

    Overall I would expect a slightly higher UKIP and Green vote and a lower Lib Dem vote. It could mean a lower vote for Adam Afriyie but oddly an even larger percentage majority.

  12. so perhaps-

    con- 57%
    Lib- 15%
    Lab- 13%
    UKIP- 10%
    Green- 5%

    Anyone who doesn’t like an MP because they’re black should be voting BNP or NF, not UKIP.

  13. “Anyone who doesn’t like an MP because they’re black should be voting BNP or NF, not UKIP.”

    Political prejudice, to whatever hopefully limited extent it still exists, has always been more subtle than that. If this wasn’t the case, the far right would at the very least have made a credible challenge for Westminster by now.

  14. Replace “by now” with “in the past”, because I’m certainly not implying that this sort of thinking in on the rise.

    My point was that surely at some point since WW2 there has been one constituency at one election in which if everyone of that mindset voted far right, the far right would have won.

    They haven’t because most of the diminishing minority of those whose voting intentions are susceptible to race genuinely do not believe that this is the case.

  15. I’d like to think an MP’s race wouldn’t influence people’s willingness to vote for them or otherwise. As far as racial prejudice continues in Britain (not very) it tends to be based more on general “outsider” status (c.f. Eastern Europeans) rather than specific colours. Afriyie is British, and I therefore can’t see how race would come into it.

    Having said that, if there were people who genuinely did vote against someone on ethnic grounds, it seems pretty clear to me which of the big four parties they’d often go for. Not that I’m saying for a second that’s what most UKIP supporters or members would want to happen.

  16. There are a couple of occasions in recent years when a candidate expected to win didn’t, and race may have been an issue

    I’m thinking of Cheltenham, when John Taylor did not win, and more recently, Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones in Chippenham

  17. I happen to think Cheltenham could well have gone liberal even with a white tory candidate in 1992…Charles Irving was a popular local tory MP, but even with him as the candidate it was always quite tight, even in the Maggie landslides of ’83 and ’87…Taylor was expected to win by a metropolitan media but the local dynamics weren’t that great regardless of his ethnicity.

    yes, race was perhaps a factor, but i think nigel jones was a strong candidate, who had fought the seat in 1979…

    It’s difficult to isolate that as the main cause….again i think there’s a stronger case for it being a factor with emmanuel-jones…he was a flamboyant character who rubbed people up the wrong way.

  18. Hey, you don’t even have my mug shot on your page. Please check me out before you try to write me off. Fiona

    Email: f[email protected]
    Website: www.fionadentlabour.com 
    Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/fionadentlabour 
    Blog: http://www.fionaforlabour.blogspot.co.uk
    Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/FionaDentLabour

  19. Adrian Girling was selected recently as UKIP candidate. He’s now been replaced by Tariq Malik:

    https://twitter.com/UKIP_RBWM/status/574264293509722115

  20. Whilst this is naturally a safe Conservative seat
    One particular issue permeates through this constituency and that is the proposed Heathrow runway and changes to the flightpath over this leafy and affluent constituency.

    Regardless of the logic of the runway and its economic benefit the noise factor and recently a rerouting of flights has aroused and infuriated local concerns.

    A local meeting to address the concerns of residents with the local MP present was expected to have some 50-80 attending.
    Close to a thousand attended a meeting at Ascot racecourse.

  21. I notice that the list of candidates refers to Wisdom DaCosta as a Windsor & Maidenhead Councillor. The Liberal Democrat candidate, George Fussey, is also a Windsor & Maidenhead Councillor. George Fussey is a teacher at Eton, the well known public school located in the constituency.

  22. Conservative Hold. 22,000 maj

  23. The Queen is taking legal action because she has been reported in the national press as being biassed over Europe.

    However, one does not have to bring the Queen into it personally to point out that the European referendum has major implications for the sovereignty of the UK and therefore the position of our Head of State.

    My recollection is that at the time of the 1975 Referendum it was asserted that staying in Europe would not diminish UK sovereignty, yet powers have been handed over to unelected Europeam bodes, the Commission and the Council of Ministers, right, left and centre. Continuing to stay in Europe would effectively signal an end to UK sovereignty.

    How many people, in particular Conservative electors, would vote to stay in Europe if Cameorn (and incdientally the LIbDems as well) came clean and said that they wish to hand over British independence to unelected politicians in Brussels?

    By the way, has the MP here been doing anything since he wa re-elected? There have not been any posts on this thread since last May.

  24. “By the way, has the MP here been doing anything since he wa re-elected? There have not been any posts on this thread since last May”.

    They are probably relieved he hasn’t been in any scandals or led some rebellion! Let sleeping dogs lie..

  25. Here’s a not-so-crazy fact: from the last local election held in each respective area, all of the Queen’s Estates located on Great Britain are contained within wards which have the Conservatives as the largest party.

    BALMORAL –
    Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside (2012):
    * Conservative – 1,332 (34.6%)
    * Liberal Democrat – 1,183 (30.8%)
    * Scottish National – 1,091 (28.4%)
    * Labour – 241 (6.3%)

    BUCKINGHAM PALACE –
    St James’s (2014):
    * Conservative – 3,004 (41.7%)
    * Labour – 1,602 (23.7%)
    * Green – 335 (13.4%)
    * UKIP – 299 (12.0%)
    * Liberal Democrat – 625 (9.2%)

    SANDRINGHAM –
    Dersingham (2013):
    * Conservative – 1,422 (46.6%)
    * UKIP – 844 (27.7%)
    * Labour – 627 (20.6%)
    * Liberal Democrat – 158 (5.2%)

    HOLYROOD –
    City Centre (2012):
    * Conservative – 1,402 (27.7%)
    * Scottish National – 1,264 (25.0%)
    * Labour – 1,080 (21.3%)
    * Green – 864 (17.1%)
    * Liberal Democrat – 402 (7.9%)
    * Liberal – 51 (1.0%)

    WINDSOR –
    Eton and Castle (2015):
    * Conservative – 503 (52.2%)
    * Liberal Democrat – 460 (47.8%)

    And for her Royal Estate on Northern Ireland we have, unsurprising, the Unionists well ahead:

    HILLSBOROUGH –
    Downshire West (2014):
    * DUP – 1,995 (34.6%)
    * UUP – 1,583 (27.4%)
    * Alliance – 493 (8.5%)
    * Conservative – 376 (6.5%)
    * TUV – 335 (5.8%)
    * UKIP – 286 (5.0%)
    * SDLP – 231 (4.0%)
    * NI21 – 354 (6.1%)
    * Green – 119 (2.1%)

  26. Thanks for that, NTY, I appreciate the trouble you went to to collate the relevant info.
    I’m the sort of person who likes such random snippets of political curiosity.

    I expect the two Scottish wards will see the SNP take precedence next month though.

  27. @ John D – The Scottish locals aren’t until 2017, although I’ll agree that chances are City Centre in Edinburgh will go SNP.

    My notionals point to a Conservative majority in the Aboyne, Upper Deeside & Donside ward (Balmoral) at last May’s General Election, so I would not dismiss the Conservatives taking the most votes here at this May’s Holyrood election/the 2017 locals.

    The breakdown for the ward is as follows:
    * Conservative – 41%
    * Scottish National – 37%
    * Liberal Democrat – 15%
    * Labour – 2%

  28. Given the Queen’s wealth, it is unsurprising that she lives in places that vote for the “rich” party.

    Perhaps it is more to the point that the Royal family’s personal friendships tend to be far from neutral politically.

    Historically, the Queen of course travelled throughout the Kingdom for royal engagements. Just recently, however, this has been less the case.

  29. “Given the Queen’s wealth, it is unsurprising that she lives in places that vote for the “rich” party.”

    Since the turn of the century, she’s actually managed to live in constituencies represented by all four largest parties: Sandringham went Labour in the 1997 landslide, and at the same time Balmoral fell to the Lib Dems, and remained with them for the next 18 years; and now of course she has an SNP MP there.

  30. Eton and Castle ward was won by the Lib Dems in 2011 and lost back to the Conservatives in 2015.
    Windsor Great Park is in Old Windsor ward and has been held by independents on the Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead for decades.
    So arguably three parties in Windsor alone.

  31. @ GT – I was just remarking on the coincidence that is the Conservatives polling first in all wards with an estate owned by the Queen in Great Britain in the last local election held in each respective estate. That does not mean to say that I am ignorant of the wider political make-up of those very wards, with the likes of City Centre in Edinburgh (which went SNP in 2007), Eton & Castle in Windsor & Maindenhead (which went Lib Dem in 2011) and Aboyne, Upper Deeside & Don in Aberdeenshire having a more mixed political tradition than the others.

  32. lol

  33. If you want something to report try Tristan’s comments on page three of the Paisley & Renfrewshire South page.

  34. Oh please NTY UK. Mhairi can handle a bit of rough and tumble I’m sure, and she couldn’t care less about my (very) tongue in cheek remarks. Do get over yourself.

  35. * facepalm *

  36. What the bloody hell are you lot getting het up about?

    1) Please don’t resort to trading insults to each other, it’s really not the level of conversation we want on here

    2) My email address is anthonyjwells, not anthonywells. Whoever [email protected] is probably very confused

  37. Agree we shouldn’t be trading insults but IMO it is similarly wrong to post bizarre, elaborate conspiracy theories on thread after thread after thread, which the person in question was doing and getting on everyone’s tits as a consequence. It’s been a breath of fresh air without it this past week or so and long may it continue.

  38. I guess the ‘further action’ Frederic was threatening was stopping contributing to this site.

    If that is the case, HH deserves some kind of medal, plus all members of UKPR should continue to give thanks on a daily basis for that coming to pass.

  39. Both of the Queen’s Royal Estates in Scotland are now represented by Conservative constituency MSP’s.

  40. I would be very surprised if Labour votes in Aboyne made it into three figures.

  41. Yes, that’s right

  42. Anthony

    Thank you for your action on this thread. I am sorry for the inconvenience caused. I also apologise for getting your email address wrong.

    Tristan is right that I have not been contributing to this site until recent matters were cleared up. And I doubt if I will be contributing as much in future as I have better things to do.

    From other comments in the past, I doubt if everybody agrees with Tristram about my comments, but that is his opinion.

    For the record, what I do most object to is very strong language, whether directed at me or anybody else.

  43. “Ah then the point about royal estates holds true.
    Aberdeenshire West and Edinburgh Central being Tory and those wards surely voted for the blues too”

    The Tory vote in Central is more saturated around Inverleith. I’m not sure whether or not they won in the City Centre ward to be honest. I would guess that they took City Centre due to a high Green vote fracturing the SNP/Yes vote in the area, but I’m not entirely certain of it.

  44. Perhaps we can track the two most unlikely Conservative gains of the night to the Queen? 🙂

  45. The Greens played a blinder in Edinburgh Central. Had they not stood, and allowed the SNP a clear run, the Conservatives would have taken the final list seat for the Lothian region instead of them.

  46. The Evening Standard has published an article about the MPs business problems.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/business/questions-rise-over-london-it-empire-of-tory-obama-adam-afriyie-a3454341.html

    The press report may not amount to anything particularly relevant to Mr Afriyie’s political career, but other developments may change the situation.

  47. The ‘Tory Obama’?! Lol. The bloke has no political talent whatsoever, and is about as popular within the Tory party as a nasty dose of herpes.

  48. Worth posting this:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/hannahalothman/windsor-councils-leader-wants-vagrants-out-before-the-royal?utm_term=.qqGOYwPMq#.jveGYJ6WA

    Here’s the thing – the people of Windsor will continue to elect almost exclusively Conservative councillors because it is Windsor, and because FPTP will dilute the 30-40% of people voting for Labour or Liberal candidates to negligible representation.

    FPTP doesn’t work at Westminster either, but it’s especially bad for local councils in those parts of the country where elections are at their least competitive, where councillors can do as they please and go essentially unpunished, protected by the colour of their rosettes.

  49. Don’t a lot of councils ban beggars from certain areas? Leeds City Council has probably banned dozens of beggars from the city centre due to aggressive or intimidating behaviour. And a lot of them had somewhere to live.

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