Winchester

2015 Result:
Conservative: 30425 (55%)
Labour: 4613 (8.3%)
Lib Dem: 13511 (24.4%)
Green: 2645 (4.8%)
UKIP: 4122 (7.5%)
MAJORITY: 16914 (30.6%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Hampshire. Part of Winchester council area and part of Eastleigh council area.

Main population centres: Winchester, Twyford, New Alresford, Chandler`s Ford, Hiltingbury.

Profile: An affluent and fast growing city in Hampshire, the seat contains Winchester itself, once the capital of England, picturesque surrounding towns and villages such as Twyford and New Alresford, and now the housing estates of Chandler`s Ford and Hiltingbury. In 2006 a Channel 4 programme announced that Winchester was the best place in the UK to live.

Politics: The constituency has an equally picturesque political history. The seat had been Conservative since 1950, but in 1992 the then Conservative MP John Browne was deselected having been suspended from the Commons for accepting cash for questions. Browne subsequently stood as a independent Conservative against the new Tory candidate, former MP Gerry Malone. Browne lost and has subsequently stood for UKIP in various elections. Five years later Malone himself was defeated by 2 votes by Mark Oaten in 1997, despite the intervention of serial spoiler candidate Richard Huggett, who stood as a "Liberal Democrat Top Choice for Parliament" and won 640 votes. The Conservatives successfully challenged the result in court and the election was re-run, but the perception of being a sore loser saw a huge swing against Malone at the subsequent by-election, making Winchester one of the safest Liberal Democrat seat in the country. In turn Mark Oaten suffered his own fall from grace, with tabloid newspapers alledging he had paid a male prostitute for an act `too disgusting to be described in a family newspaper`... or, indeed, in the News of the World. Oaten stood down at the general election and the seat was regained by the Conservatives.


Current MP
STEVE BRINE (Conservative) Born 1974, Portsmouth. Educated at Bohunt Comprehensive and Liverpool University. Former BBC radio producer, CCO researcher and Conservative Party Area campaign Director. First elected as MP for Winchester in 2010. PPS to Mike Penning until 2015. PPS to Jeremy Hunt since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27155 (49%)
Lab: 3051 (5%)
LDem: 24107 (43%)
UKIP: 1139 (2%)
Oth: 503 (1%)
MAJ: 3048 (5%)
2005*
Con: 23749 (39%)
Lab: 4782 (8%)
LDem: 31225 (51%)
UKIP: 1321 (2%)
Oth: 581 (1%)
MAJ: 7476 (12%)
2001
Con: 22648 (38%)
Lab: 3498 (6%)
LDem: 32282 (55%)
UKIP: 664 (1%)
Oth: 66 (0%)
MAJ: 9634 (16%)
1997
Con: 26098 (42%)
Lab: 6528 (11%)
LDem: 26100 (42%)
Oth: 1730 (3%)
MAJ: 2 (0%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEVE BRINE (Conservative) See above.
MARK CHALONER (Labour)
JACKIE PORTER (Liberal Democrat) Former retail buyer and teacher. Hampshire councillor since 2005.
MARTIN LYON (UKIP)
MICHAEL WILKS (Green)
Links
Comments - 118 Responses on “Winchester”
  1. Conservative Hold. 7,000 maj

  2. Interestingly Mark Oaten has been dusted off for a heavy duty presence in LibDems tweets emanating out of this seat…

  3. Is that good or bad for the LDs here Antiochian?

  4. Galloglass- quite!

  5. Not sure myself… was a surprising gesture…

  6. Con hold 16,914 majority

    Con 55.0 (+6.5)
    LD 24.4 (-18.7)
    Lab 8.3 (+2.9)
    UKIP 7.5 (+5.4)
    Gre 4.8 (+4.8)

  7. Wow. You see this again and again in the LD/CON results. Check Somerton or Hereford if you haven’t already.

  8. Somerton was colossal . Maybe it would have been different if David Heath had stood again.

  9. Interesting upcoming by-election for HCC seat in Chandlers Ford.. Was caused by a Tory resignation. Ward is in Winchester for parliamentary but part of Eastleigh borough..

    Hampshire CC, Chandlers Ford (Thursday, October 22, 2015)

  10. It is clear from the result that no / very few national resources were put into holding Somerton. Yeovil was a far, far worse result,

  11. Chandler’s Ford (Hampshire) result:
    CON – 49.3% (+10.2)
    LDEM – 35.5% (+3.8)
    UKIP – 8.5% (-13.3)
    LAB – 6.8% (+1.9)

    Despite being part of Eastleigh borough, ward is part of the Winchester constituency… Pretty dire for UKIP..

  12. 2016 about 60% voted Remain. Brine backed and still backs a hard brexit. Jackie Porter is running again. Should see this seat return to being a marginal.

  13. ‘Brine backed and still backs a hard brexit.’

    Brine was opposed to Brexit prior to the 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU.

    Like many of his colleagues – including of course Theresa May – he’s changed his tune since the vote

  14. If there’s a place the Tory vote should drop, it’ll be here. Brine getting above 50% again is hard to see.

    I’d expect Porter to hit at least mid-30s as well. Would be interesting to see the canvassing returns here — I have a hunch it could be closer than we think.

    There is actually, in my mind, a chance that this seat could see the sharpest LD vote share increase without actually being a gain. Wouldn’t rule out percentages similar to 2010.

  15. Mr Pitt
    You may well be right, but could you give some objective evidence for your comments?

  16. CON HOLD 17% Maj

    This one voted REMAIN – I think the Lib Dems will get back up to 30% here and the Tories will go down a bit.

  17. This is an LD seat for the taking

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