Westmorland & Lonsdale
2015 Result:
Conservative: 16245 (33.2%)
Labour: 2661 (5.4%)
Lib Dem: 25194 (51.5%)
Green: 1798 (3.7%)
UKIP: 3031 (6.2%)
MAJORITY: 8949 (18.3%)
Category: Semi-marginal Liberal Democrat seat
Geography: North West, Cumbria. Most of the South Lakeland council area.
Main population centres: Kendal, Windermere, Sedbergh, Kirkby Lonsdale, Ambleside.
Profile: A large rural seat in Cumbria. The seat includes Kendal, Windermere, Sedbergh, Kirkby Lonsdale and Ambleside, but not the historic county town of Appleby-in-Westmorland. It also includes Lake Windermere, Coniston Water and much of the Lake District. The local economy is largely based on agriculture and tourism.
Politics: In 2005 the Conservative shadow minister Tim Collins was defeated in this seat by a tiny majority, the lone victim of what had been described as a Liberal Democrat decapitation strategy against Conservative frontbenchers in marginal seats. In 2010 the new Liberal Democrat MP Tim Farron managed a further huge swing in favour, making this into a solid enough Liberal Democrat seat to withstanding even their 2015 drubbing.
| Con: | 18632 (36%) |
| Lab: | 1158 (2%) |
| LDem: | 30896 (60%) |
| UKIP: | 801 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 12264 (24%) |
| Con: | 22302 (45%) |
| Lab: | 3796 (8%) |
| LDem: | 22569 (45%) |
| UKIP: | 660 (1%) |
| Oth: | 309 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 267 (1%) |
| Con: | 22486 (47%) |
| Lab: | 5234 (11%) |
| LDem: | 19339 (40%) |
| UKIP: | 552 (1%) |
| Oth: | 292 (1%) |
| MAJ: | 3147 (7%) |
| Con: | 21470 (42%) |
| Lab: | 10459 (21%) |
| LDem: | 16949 (33%) |
| MAJ: | 4521 (9%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
On the same tangent. What about the Channel Islands?
Would an Isle of Man constituency perhaps vote something roughly along these lines?
Lib Dem- 12000 (39.3%)
Manx Nationalist Party- 9500 (31.1%)
Conservative- 6500 (21.3%)
Labour- 2500 (8.1%)
Bearing in mind of course that as with all islands or heavily isolated rural areas e.g. Scottish Highlands or Cornwall, the personalities of the candidates would matter a bit as well.
Given the nature of the economy and demographics on the Isle of Man I’d have thought it would be a pretty safe Conservative seat, with the potential for an LD challenge in the right circumstances. But of course if it weren’t a Crown dependency it couldn’t have the low tax regime it has and the demographics might hence be different.
Maybe you’re right. Perhaps taking into account the island’s tax status, something like this might be slightly more accurate for how it would vote as a UK Parliamentary constituency?
Conservative- 12000
Lib Dem- 9000
Manx Nationalist Party- 8500
Labour- 2500
Vannin is the Manx word for Man (the island). So Liberal Vannin is just the Isle of Man Lib Dems.
Interesting.
Tim Farrron has said in an interview that he regrets stating that gay sex is not a sin, during the General Election campaign and said this was “clearly” the wrong answer he gave under pressure.
This is on top of a recent lecture he gave attacking the anti-Christian culture in the media and that, “atheism is not a neutral position but also one of belief.”