West Bromwich East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9347 (24.9%)
Labour: 18817 (50.2%)
Lib Dem: 751 (2%)
Green: 628 (1.7%)
UKIP: 7949 (21.2%)
MAJORITY: 9470 (25.3%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands. Part of the Sandwell council area.

Main population centres: West Bromwich.

Profile: The eastern part of Sandwell, in the centre of the West Midlands conurbation and seperated from Birmingham to the east by the Sandwell Valley country park. This is mostly a gritty, working class area with high unemployment and a significant number of ethnic minority voters (most notably the Sikh community, one of the largest in the country). The south of the seat is made up of West Bromwich itself, to the north east there are some more middle-class areas around Charlmont and Grove Vale while at the far north are a number of large municipal housing developments like Yew Tree and Friar Park.

Politics:


Current MP
TOM WATSON (Labour) Born 1967. Educated at King Charles I School Kidderminster and Hull University. Former National Political Officer for the AEEU. First elected as MP for West Bromwich East in 2001. Government whip 2004-2006, Under-Secretary of state for Defence 2006. Parliamentary secretary at the Cabinet Office 2007-2009. Deputy Chair of the Labour party 2011-2013. Deputy leader of the Labour party since 2015. Watson was seen as a key supporter of Gordon Brown, and resigned from government in September 2006 in order to call on Tony Blair to step down as leader, in what was seen as an abortive Brownite coup. In recent years he has led the criticism of News International over the phone hacking scandal, writing a book on the scandal called Dial M for Murdoch. He served as Labours campaign head under Ed Miliband, but resigned in 2013 during controversy over Unite`s intervention in the Falkirk candidate selection.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10961 (29%)
Lab: 17657 (47%)
LDem: 4993 (13%)
BNP: 2205 (6%)
Oth: 2134 (6%)
MAJ: 6696 (18%)
2005*
Con: 8089 (23%)
Lab: 19741 (56%)
LDem: 4386 (12%)
BNP: 2329 (7%)
Oth: 967 (3%)
MAJ: 11652 (33%)
2001
Con: 8487 (26%)
Lab: 18250 (56%)
LDem: 4507 (14%)
UKIP: 835 (3%)
Oth: 585 (2%)
MAJ: 9763 (30%)
1997
Con: 10126 (24%)
Lab: 23710 (57%)
LDem: 6179 (15%)
MAJ: 13584 (33%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
OLIVIA SECCOMBE (Conservative)
TOM WATSON (Labour) See above.
FLO CLUCAS (Liberal Democrat) Former teacher. Liverpool councillor 1986-2012, Cheltenham councillor since 2014. Contested Crosby 1992, Liverpool Garston 1997, Knowsley North and Sefton East 2005, Knowsley 2010.
STEVE LATHAM (UKIP)
BARRY LIM (Green)
Links
Comments - 168 Responses on “West Bromwich East”
  1. I don’t think so. I put some numbers up, check previous page! Those numbers equated to a roughly 120 majority. You agreed with my percentages but disputed the actual outcome of the election in seats. You said baxters model wasn’t great. That’s what this discussion was about.

  2. you don’t have to flip back as the thread is on this page . The discussion was about baxters model,as against the advanced swings meter on this site.

  3. Peter
    I was referring to this comment you made
    “All this is leading people to think that the election could be a real nightmare for labour. I think a 200 majority far more likely than one of 50. I wouldn’t have said this three weeks ago”

    But as I said it was a misunderstanding on my part, I took that as something close to a prediction so again apologies.

  4. Rivers10, check your statement posted on 12.30pm yesterday… We were talking about the various models. This is very tedious and irrelevant but you were actually switching horses mid race. We were not talking about outcomes per se but about models of electoral swing…

    My actual predictions of vote share were nearer 94 than 200. My point about a 200 majority is that I thought it was MORE likely than one of just 50. I still think this is the case.

  5. Predictions of majority derived from vote share. I appreciate the need for precision when discussing the stuff

  6. Peter
    As I keep saying I made a mistake and can only apologise.

    Your actual prediction made at 11:45 yesterday is actually in the same ballpark as my own so there are no disagreements there (re vote shares) yet how this translates into seats is a different matter. I stand by my scepticism on Baxter’s model though, I always found the guy pretty clueless but perhaps that’s just me.

    At the end of the day though the results produced by either model aren’t so different whether they be 94 or 120 its roughly in the same area, I just think Baxter is being a tad generous to the Tories.

  7. Sure, rivers don’t think I had read your previous post which pointed out the misunderstanding. We aren’t that far apart on the vote share.i need to understand the various swingometers models etc. I think a Tory majority of 90 to 100 is fair. That means the Tories would have 370 to 375 seats .

    I do think if this is wrong, it’s likely to understate the real picture . Hence my 200 more likely than 50 remark. 200 looks off the mark now, but a Tory majority of 50 implies only 20 net gains for the blues, which seems way too few to me.

  8. The markets suggests the likliest CON seat total is between 400 -412 inclusive:

    Per Betfair – seats, bands of 24 seats.
    18/5/2017 18:12
    50-74 seat majority 15.0 (14/1 – 7% probability)
    150-174 ” ” 5.5 (9/2 – 18% probability)
    200-224 ” ” 15.0 (14/1 – 7% probability)

  9. Sounds like I missed an absolute corker of a speech from Tom Watson.

    Michael Gove is doing a pretty good job of polishing the turd right now tbh. A very Oxford-Union speech.

  10. Both Watson and Gove are excellent speakers but politicians who wouldn’t go down well with the electorate if they led their parties s – especially Gove who has considerbale worse approval ratings than May.

  11. Intellectually Gove is light years ahead of the rest of the government but he has zero charisma outside Westminster and just doesn’t look the part which in today’s world in fatal if you harbour ambitions for the top job

    He’s the only one whose departure would topple May

  12. A very apt choice of words Polltroll. Gove’s leadership ambitions are of themselves attempts to polish a very unattractive turd. That said, desperation might yet bring fortune to shine upon him. A clever, consistent Brexiter who was just loyal enough to May ought, on paper, to be the ideal next leader.

  13. Tense stand off between Deputy Leader and the General Secretary of the Party.

    Imo Very bad news if TW goes. Lots of Lab ppl will follow him and Labours appeal will shrink.

    Some on the Left think it’ll be a good thing.

    Yet again it looks like the Labour Left believe ideological purity supercedes electoral politics.

  14. If Tom Watson defected then the likes of Yvette Cooper and Hillary Benn would go.

  15. Kind of passed over amid the torrent of news we’ve had recently, is Tom Watson’s new Future Labour Group, a bunch of 50 or so Labour MPs from the party’s social democratic faction. It will be interesting to see how independent this group becomes – could this become another ERG, with its own spokespeople, its own whips, and its own lobbying efforts?

  16. Tom Watson will attend tomorrow’s second referendum march. Bound to inflame Labour tensions between him and left wing pro corbyn anti referendums (people like Caroline Flint genuinely are in a small minority within the party.0

  17. As a pro corbyn left wing anti referwn

  18. I’m not bothered. Labour are throwing their weight behind Kyle/Wilson. It’s conference policy. I might not like it but thats that

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)