our printer has packed up so we are using the printer at the labour party office in watford, but they haven’t given anything away

Tories wiped out in the Council. LDs 25 and LAB 11 I think

Yes, the Lib Dems have taken overall control of the council

Great result for the Lib Dems and a decent result for a Corbyn-led Labour Party but the result for the Tories here is absolutely dreadful! This is a classic surburban bellweather seat whete they should be doing very well! What happened? Was the Tories disaster here down to local issues?

There are clearly lots of people in Watford who simply vote LD in local/mayoral elections and Tory in GEs. But a rather odd situation to have zero council seats but a 10,000 majority in the parliamentary seat!

Can the LDs convert their local form into a serious run at the parliamentary seat? I severely doubt it, barring major changes in voting patterns – that ship probably sailed in 2005 and 2010.

There was some slightly hysterical (as it turned out) talk from the Lib Dems that they might gain Watford last May, and not just from those usually prone to Plopwellesque optimism.

You’d have to say that, given the strength of the local candidate and of the party generally in the borough, if the Lib Dems couldn’t win it in 2015, they won’t manage it in the near future either. And that’s before factoring in whether there will be boundary changes.

They might not in 2020, but a concerted effort amongst the healthy activist base here could make it so by 2030 perhaps. That’s often how the Lib Dems operate – see, for example the way their vote share crept up a few percentage points every election in Westmorland and Lonsdale, overturning what was a 16000-strong Conservative majority in 1983 until the seat finally changed hands in 2005.

It won’t be easy, and it won’t be quick, but it isn’t impossible.

A nice gain for the Lib Dems here, retaking the council from NOC. The Conservatives lost their remaining councillors.

Not sure about what’ll become of them in Watford in GE 2020 (could overtake Labour for 2nd place again?), but the LDs show real staying power in this local authority.

The Tories continue to perform abysmally in Watford local elections despite winning a big majority at the general election.

The main concern for the Conservatives here is with losing their complete local government base is the effect it has on reducing the troops on the ground available at general elections.

All in all, it doesn’t bode well for holding the seat in the long term.

Perhaps a lot of residents in Watford split-ticket vote. Vote Lib Dem locally but Conservative nationally. Of course keep in mind that the constituency has a few Three Rivers wards (are they Tory strongholds?)

@Neil

Yes, nationally. Though Three Rivers, like Watford, has a lot of LD local strength that has never converted to GEs – four of the five Three Rivers wards in the Watford constituency voted LD on Thursday.

(Thanks to Andy JS for his fine spreadsheet allowing me to look that up quickly!)

Watford votes leave (albeit narrowly). I do think now that remain is finished…

Christ…narrow but who knows what will happen in Hertsmere and St Albans.

St Albans will probably still vote Remain.

Watford was one of my ultimate bellwether local authorities along with Canterbury and Chelmsford!

It’s getting very spicey now! Haha!

Hertsmere went Leave 51-49.

CHRISTIAN congratulations on your prediction. I think JACK SHELDON was another one of us who stuck with LEAVE notwithstanding the final day phone polls giving REMAIN 10% / 8% / 7% leads.

To think LEAVE were 6/1 this morning and I placed my money on them back in March at 11/4 thinking I got a good price!

@DeepThroat

Thanks! My prediction was based on what my friends and work colleagues were telling me as well as the sheer amount of ‘Vote Leave’ posters I saw displayed around Kent and Essex! I always knew in my heart LEAVE would win despite the betting odds and polls. I think my suggestion of ‘shy leavers’ has come to light and looks like they’ve swung it for LEAVE!

I also continued to predict leave and was never expected sadly a remain vote.

Yes you too BM.

I said 47/53% in Feb, 47.5/52.5 in April and my Last prediction was 48.5/51.5%.

Did you bet?

I have lost a bit of money on turnout but overall I’m well up overall.
If Cameron resigns by 1st July I’ll be even better off!

Is Thornhill running again?

Didn’t she get a peerage?

Jack S is right.

Whilst unusual it’s not uncommon. I can think of at least half a dozen seats where Parties fell to zero cllrs and then won the Parliamentary seat with 10,000 majority eg Liverpool Wavertree in 2001 (all LD Cllrs ie 0 Lab Cllrs didn’t stop Jane Kennedy). Equally there’s a few Tory examples: Grayling’s Epsom had 0 or 1 Tory Cllr for years.

Re: Epsom
Epsom and Ewell borough council was a conservative wipeout from 1971 till 2003. This is a sort of falsehood in a way as the council has been run Independents since 1937 under Residents Association banter who are generally Conservative supporters.

In the late 1940s Epsom and Ewell council compsition was Residents 34 Labour 5 Conservative 1.

Today it’s Residents 31 Conservative 4 Labour 3.

The seat has always contained areas outside the borough which are even more Conservative than Epsom itself.

Perhaps the residents association should run a candidate for Parliament

They wouldn’t because there would be a danger of possibly splitting the right vote and letting Labour in through the back door if it was a 1945 or 1997 election.