Walthamstow

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5584 (13.4%)
Labour: 28779 (68.9%)
Lib Dem: 1661 (4%)
Green: 2661 (6.4%)
UKIP: 2507 (6%)
TUSC: 394 (0.9%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 81 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 23195 (55.5%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Waltham Forest council area.

Main population centres: Walthamstow, Higham Hill.

Profile: An east London seat covering Waltamstow and Higham Hill. This is a multicultural working class suburb, largely built as a affordable housing for the working class at the beginning of the last century. In the 2012 census over half the population were from ethnic minorities, with large black and Asian communities. To the west the constituency includes and is bounded by the Lee Valley chain of reservoirs.

Politics: In the past the white working class vote (and in 1987 a huge tax hike from a Labour council) made this a marginal seat, but demographic changes and a growing ethnic minority population mean this is now safely Labour.


Current MP
STELLA CREASY (Labour) Born 1977, Sutton Coldfield. Educated at Colchester County High School for Girls and Cambridge University. Former Head of public affairs for the Scout Association. Waltham Forest councillor 2002-05. First elected as MP for Walthamstow in 2010. Contested the Labour deputy leadership in 2015, coming second to Tom Watson.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5734 (14%)
Lab: 21252 (52%)
LDem: 11774 (29%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Oth: 1411 (3%)
MAJ: 9478 (23%)
2005
Con: 6254 (18%)
Lab: 17323 (50%)
LDem: 9330 (27%)
UKIP: 810 (2%)
Oth: 727 (2%)
MAJ: 7993 (23%)
2001
Con: 6221 (18%)
Lab: 21402 (62%)
LDem: 5024 (15%)
BNP: 389 (1%)
Oth: 1393 (4%)
MAJ: 15181 (44%)
1997
Con: 8138 (20%)
Lab: 25287 (63%)
LDem: 5491 (14%)
MAJ: 17149 (43%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MOLLY SAMUEL-LEPORT (Conservative)
STELLA CREASY (Labour) See above.
STEVEN CHEUNG (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL HILLMAN (UKIP)
MICHAEL GOLD (Green)
JONTY LEFF (Workers Revolutionary)
ELLIE MERTON (No description)
NANCY TAAFFE (TUSC) Library assistant. Contested Walthamstowe 2005, 2010.
Links
Comments - 64 Responses on “Walthamstow”
  1. A closer look at the result here in 1992-
    Gerrard (Labour)- 16, 251 (45.71%, +10.98%)
    Summerson (Conservative)- 13, 229 (37.21%, -1.81%)
    Leighton (Liberal Democrat)- 5, 142 (14.46%, -10.66%)
    Lambert (Green)- 594 (1.67%, N/A)
    Wilkinson (Liberal)- 241 (0.68%, N/A)
    Planton (Natural Law)- 94 (0.26%, N/A)

    Majority- 3, 022 (8.50%)
    Swing- +6.395% From Con to Lab.

  2. It was quite a good result for the Conservatives. They were only down by about 500 votes on 1987 and were about 1,300 above 1983.

  3. Yes that’s right Summerson still got more votes than the Tories had managed here in 1983, as well as a higher vote share. The comparisons in vote share with 1983 are interesting-
    Labour- +5.9%
    Conservative- +1.3%
    Liberal Democrat- -7.1%

  4. The only vaguely positive thing for the Tories in this seat in recent elections was the 0.1% rise in their share in 2005. That just about sums up how bad things have become for them here.

  5. LAB HOLD MAJ : 36%
    LAB 56
    LD 20
    CON 11
    UKIP 6
    GRN 5
    OTH 2

  6. 2015
    Fairly likely

    *Lab 61% +9%
    LD 18% -11%
    Con 14%
    UKIP 4% +2%
    Green 3% +1%

    LD to Lab swing 10%

  7. I think these very large swings to Labour will happen where left leaning voters deserted Labour for the Lib Dems in 3 stages after 1997.
    I think the movement will be much more limited in most other seats but still significant.

  8. Stella Creasy suggesting on Newsnight that she could put her name down for the deputy leadership contest. She’s definitely one of the most personable MPs from the 2010 intake, is quite active on social media and seems to have respect from both the left and right of Labour. I don’t know which wing of the party she identifies with. If she’s a genuine centrist she could be quite useful.

  9. She’s running for deputy leader. She’s considered a right-winger inside the party, but not in the classic reheated Blairite sense. Seems to be popular with women in the party.

  10. If Creasy were deputy at the 2020 GE and Labour lose again would she be pressured tp step down or could she continue for a second term like Harman did? I just feel it’s too early for her to take a leadership role in the party and her best chance would be after 2020.

  11. I see Creasey is 7/4 2nd favourite behind Tom Watson.

    If BURNHAM does win, I would have thought Creasey is very likely to get Deputy as Labour will not have a male/male leadership.

  12. Not to mention that Watson wouldn’t strategically be a safe bet for deputy leadership.

  13. A poll out today by labourlist.org shows Stella Creasy with a 4% lead… 31% -27%…over Tom Watson. Bookies either are unimpressed or are not yet awake as she is 5/1 to win Deputy.

    If anyone out there loves a tickle on politics, they might want to look at the 20/1 offered on a Corbyn / Creasy Labour ticket at PaddyP. They go 18/1 CORBYN /Creasey.

  14. 18/1 Burnham / Creasey.

    Is it the case that a lot of voters in the two Labour races will vote Male/Female? If we assume it’s either AB or JC as Leader…does this make Creasey a more likely winner of Deputy than we might initially have supposed?

  15. This seat was in the news for other reasons yesterday : it seems TfL put up new signs at Walthamstow Central station yesterday, but the trouble is that it was misspelt Waltamstow on all of them.

  16. Phonetically correct maybe for the large African Caribbean community.

    Why are so reticent about the leadership races?

  17. Phonetically correct maybe for the large African Caribbean community.

    Why are you so reticent about the leadership races?

  18. what on earth do you mean? l have already stated several times that l am voting for Jeremy Corbyn for Leader. l am less decided on the Deputy Leadership, but am inclined towards Angela Eagle. My second preference for Leader will go to Burnham, not quite sure about the Deputy Leadership but probably Watson followed by Creasy.

  19. BM, are You reticent about the Leadership contests?

  20. That last message I thought I had sent earlier than the previous one but i didn’t think it went thru. Dont know why it should reappear 3 and a half hours later.

    ok…I am just a little surprised about the lack of discussion about the only poll/election going on atm.

  21. Plots are allegedly underway to deselect Stella Creasy. I can’t see them being remotely successful, as she’s very popular in Walthamstow.

    There was a protest yesterday targeting Creasy. The Sun reports it took place outside her house, while others claim her constituency office.

  22. If Momentum types have infiltrated the Walthamstow CLP it is a frightening prospect. But if membership doesn’t reflect those views massively she shouldn’t be in danger.

  23. Walthamstow is quite likely to be abolished in the boundary review, and divided between Chingford and Leyton. Creasy would then either have to fight John Cryer for nomination in a safe seat based around Leyton or stand for a highly marginal Chingford & Walthamstow seat against IDS….and if Momentum are successful she might not even be selected there.

    In reply to Mr Nameless, it matters not if an MP is popular locally, what matters is the extent to which the Corbynistas wrest control of the constituency party.

  24. There is also clearly an ethnic dimension to this; white MPs in inner London Labour seats (many of them chosen from AWS) will increasingly come under attack from those who feel the local MP should be Asian or black, with support for bombing a useful proxy to attack them with. Labour’s embrace of identity politics will ensure this is very hard to counter in the longer term.

  25. “In reply to Mr Nameless, it matters not if an MP is popular locally, what matters is the extent to which the Corbynistas wrest control of the constituency party.”

    Partially true. But local popularity will affect the strength of the anti-Corbynista vote, and the number of anti-Creasy Corbynistas in the first place.

    As far as I know, Creasy has not expressed a view on bombing yet. We’ll see how she votes.

  26. I can’t wait to see how the Corbynistas will explain this one away on this board.

    Good work by the Momentum loons in targeting one of the few young-ish Labour MP’s who actually has some vague talent.

  27. I saw one of the Momentum people on TV a few days ago. The surname is Schneider but can’t remember his first name. Pretty much the sort of person Labour needs less of. They claim that they’re not in the business of deselecting MPs and that it’s been over-egged in the media. The jury’s still out. This needs to be a wake up call for long standing CLP members to get their arses into shape and ensure moderates are saved. At least the ones who have talent or are popular locally.

  28. James Schneider I believe, Neil. I’ll just say that the limited amount I’ve read about him was quite enough.

  29. Stella Creasy just seems like an odd person to target – in many ways she seems like one of the peace-keepers who could get the two camps talking to each other. Maybe she’s an easy target because her seat is likely to be abolished?

    If part of Walthamstow is merged with Chingford and Woodford Green, stand by for a massive campaign by Labour to oust IDS – only for Momentum to shoot themselves in the foot by selecting a Labour candidate even further from the centre.

  30. I expect the media are souping up the extent to which there is an actual plot to deselect her, though some of the abuse she is receiving is terrible (and hard to explain – she’s hardly a hard core ‘Blairite’, rather she’s one of the better exponents of what might be called ‘Milibandism’), and it does seem that the Momentum are organising on a particularly large scale there.

    The problem is that whilst Corbyn, McDonnell and Momentum’s leadership are unlikely to actively call for deselections themselves, they will struggle to control members who have joined solely in order to try and further the agenda of the far left. Boundary changes will make this procedurally, and politically, easier.

  31. Until the centre of Labour reclaims the party the same way that happened a generation ago, this group is intent on being the new Militant. With middle class students at its helm. I’m sure even Degsy was working class though his property portfolio shows he’s hardly a man of his word.

    Inevitably, expelling them is the only way to combat this.

  32. As a Labour MP said – “…they targeted Stella because they live in London. I bet they wouldn’t know where Stoke was to picket Tristram’s office!”

  33. Momentum are fully committed to their cause…so long as the action takes place in zones 1-3.

  34. But, as I said, there is clearly an ethnic component to it. Not many Asians in Stoke. If the MPs for (say) Burnley or Bradford West were to vote for bombing they’d certainly get the same treatment as those in London.

  35. I would be interested to see how constituency ethnic makeups correspond to how Labour MPs voted. Would be interesting for Tories too but too few rebels to make it mean much.

  36. At the time of the General Election I commented on the South Thanet thread the undemocratic way in which some left-wingers, I presume left-wing Labour members, were behaving in Ramsgate.

    We noe seem to be seeing a more general problem of left-wing extermists, some of who probably claim to be members of the Labour Parrty, behaving in intolerant and intimmidating ways towards moderate members of the Labour Party, particuarly MPs, who do not share their views.

    This behaviour needs to be stamped on before it gets out of hand, by expelling the people concerned from the Labour Party and/or reporting to the police when they have beaved illegally.

    I happen to believe that a considerable number of Labour MPs were taken in by the Government”s pressure tactics at Westminster over Syria, when looked at in the “real world” the Government had not made its case and UK intervention would place us at considerably greater risk whilst having negligible effect. And when they time comes Labour Party members will have the right, acting democratically within Labour Party rules, to seek their replacement with an MP morfe nearly agreeing with their views. But this is quite a different matter from the boorish and unpleaseant way in which a considerable number of Labour Party members are currently behaving, which apart from anything else will make it more or less imposssible for Labour to win the next General Election.

  37. I really can’t even begin to understand the mindset of those on the far Left who have a problem with H Benn calling ISIS fascists.

    It’s as if their whole worldview crumbled as they’d been taught that fascists were Maggie, Blair or any Western leader in fact.

    There was some TUSC woman on the BBC Daily Politics; but, John Mann MP put her right.

  38. HH – to an extent.

    Although Rochdale is as Muslim as this seat.

    Manc Central 15%; Lpool Riverside 7.5% but thankfully those MPs weren’t bullied either for voting for the bombing.

  39. The TUSC woman was Nancy Taaffe (I’m watching it on catch-up right now), who stood in this constituency, gaining 81 votes.

  40. Sorry, 394 votes.

  41. Thanks Jason.

    Ah, John Mann MP was right – she’s the daughter of the infamous Peter Taaffe (wiki).

    No wonder Nancy didn’t object to being called a Trotsky – they’re both proudly so.

  42. Nancy did say on the programme that she was organizing a meeting to deselect Stella Creasy, even though she is herself a member of the socialist party (therefore not Labour?)

    It seemed to me that she was of the opinion that she and her supporters think that they now own the Labour party under Corbyns leadership.

  43. Yes. She seemed to (wrongly) believe that she could be in both Labour and TUSC, because Stella is a member of the Co-operative Party.

    Although Nancy Taaffe also revealed that she had been expelled from Labour years ago – along with her father in the ’80s, presumably.

    Even the Momentum rep rightly stated that as Nancy had stood against Labour in May she could not be admitted to the Party.

  44. The Conservative vote in this constituency has collapsed even compared to 1997.

    Whereas in Leyton it has remained constant.

    Is that because Leyton has the two middle class Redbridge wards whilst in Walthamstow the Conservative vote was wwc?

  45. Yes.

    Though the Tory vote in the Wanstead wards is now retreating as a result of the demographic changes in Redbridge so the Tory position in Leyton & Wanstead will now start to decline.

  46. Any views on which is worse for the Conservatives:

    wwc -> nwwc

    or

    wmc -> nwmc

    Although there are obviously different varieties within the non-white demographic eg Hindus being better for the Conservatives than Muslims.

  47. Does anyone have any data comparing the voting patterns of middle class public sector workers versus working class private sector workers?

  48. Least worst for the Tories is WMC to NWMC. They can still do pretty well in certain such areas (eg Harrow).

    The very worst outcome for the Tories is WMC to NWWC, which is what has happened in seats like Croydon North and Lewisham West.

  49. And Streatham

  50. @H. Hemmelig

    Quite right. Over time I think the NWMC will start to vote Tory more, and as you rightly say there are already signs of this among particular groups (Hindus particularly). It is the NWWC, particularly where they are concentrated in urban seats, that tend to be monolithic LAB voters.

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