Walthamstow

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5584 (13.4%)
Labour: 28779 (68.9%)
Lib Dem: 1661 (4%)
Green: 2661 (6.4%)
UKIP: 2507 (6%)
TUSC: 394 (0.9%)
Independent: 129 (0.3%)
Others: 81 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 23195 (55.5%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Waltham Forest council area.

Main population centres: Walthamstow, Higham Hill.

Profile: An east London seat covering Waltamstow and Higham Hill. This is a multicultural working class suburb, largely built as a affordable housing for the working class at the beginning of the last century. In the 2012 census over half the population were from ethnic minorities, with large black and Asian communities. To the west the constituency includes and is bounded by the Lee Valley chain of reservoirs.

Politics: In the past the white working class vote (and in 1987 a huge tax hike from a Labour council) made this a marginal seat, but demographic changes and a growing ethnic minority population mean this is now safely Labour.


Current MP
STELLA CREASY (Labour) Born 1977, Sutton Coldfield. Educated at Colchester County High School for Girls and Cambridge University. Former Head of public affairs for the Scout Association. Waltham Forest councillor 2002-05. First elected as MP for Walthamstow in 2010. Contested the Labour deputy leadership in 2015, coming second to Tom Watson.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5734 (14%)
Lab: 21252 (52%)
LDem: 11774 (29%)
UKIP: 823 (2%)
Oth: 1411 (3%)
MAJ: 9478 (23%)
2005
Con: 6254 (18%)
Lab: 17323 (50%)
LDem: 9330 (27%)
UKIP: 810 (2%)
Oth: 727 (2%)
MAJ: 7993 (23%)
2001
Con: 6221 (18%)
Lab: 21402 (62%)
LDem: 5024 (15%)
BNP: 389 (1%)
Oth: 1393 (4%)
MAJ: 15181 (44%)
1997
Con: 8138 (20%)
Lab: 25287 (63%)
LDem: 5491 (14%)
MAJ: 17149 (43%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MOLLY SAMUEL-LEPORT (Conservative)
STELLA CREASY (Labour) See above.
STEVEN CHEUNG (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL HILLMAN (UKIP)
MICHAEL GOLD (Green)
JONTY LEFF (Workers Revolutionary)
ELLIE MERTON (No description)
NANCY TAAFFE (TUSC) Library assistant. Contested Walthamstowe 2005, 2010.
Links
Comments - 64 Responses on “Walthamstow”
  1. Incidentally, the 1997 Tory candidate in Walthamstow was the dreadful Jill Andrew, whom I knew fleetingly when she was a councillor in Bromley. A Ken Clarke confidante with very pro-European views and a hideous personality who picked a lot of fights with the Tebbitites next door in Chingford. She tried for lots of safe seats in 2001 including Henley and Sidcup, but unsurprisingly got nowhere. She left the local party in a bit of a state here which may be partly why the Tories have done so badly in Walthamstow since.

  2. To think now as well that the Tories held this seat as recently as 1992. This has to be one of the most extreme examples of a London seat held by them during the 80s that has since gone back on them spectacularly to due to demographic changes. I don’t know though if perhaps retrospectively their win here in 1987 was viewed as being a bit of an aberration because of the difficulties of Labour locally at the time?

  3. @THE RESULTS

    There are a number of seats in London that have similarly transformed from seats winnable by the Tories in a good year, or in some cases even formerly safe Tory seats, to ultra-safe LAB seats. See also Lewisham East, Streatham, Feltham and Heston, Ilford South, Hornsey and Wood Green, Lewisham West (and Penge), Dulwich (and West Norwood), Mitcham and Morden, Brent North, Croydon North (formerly North East and North West), Ealing North, Edmonton and Hayes and Harlington. Many of these switched, never to return, in 1992 and others in 1997,

  4. Not many of those seats had much in common with Walthamstow demographically in the 1980s. Most of the seats you list were middle class seats which went downhill; Walthamstow has always been very working class and unlike most in the list it was usually safe for Labour in all but disastrous years. From that perspective the only similar seats in your list are Edmonton and Hayes & Harlington, to some and to some extent Lewisham East.

    To answer The Results, there was perhaps also a bit of a Tebbit effect here in 1987.

  5. Every one of those seats listed has had a huge influx of ethnic minorities. I think they will vote labour come what may.

  6. The swing here was 9% in 1979 (+13%) and I think another 9% swing in 1983 yet it took the Tebbit effect and of course Waltham Forest Council for the seat to change hands.

  7. Of course yes the Tebbit effect next door. The Tories held up very well here in 1992 even when they lost the seat, only to go on their long decline when 1997 came round, and into 2001, and they now find themselves way behind even those years in terms of vote share.

  8. ‘ Labour MP Stella Creasy has claimed England’s football team under-performs because it has too many privately-educated players ‘

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/sport/football/news/81044/stella-creasy-england-football-team-struggling-because-it-has-too

  9. Slight twisting of her words. It’s more like: England’s football team underperforms because sport in state schools is underfunded, and it also has a relatively large proportion of privately educated footballers for the same reason. Rather than one causing the other, they are both caused by some third thing.

    Incidentally, the 13% privately educated figure for footballers pales into insignificance next to lawyers, actors, and of course MPs. Football is among the most meritocratic of routes into extreme wealth.

  10. Of all the things which can be blamed for the failures of the England football team I doubt too little money is one of them.

    Judging by the comments I’ve heard during the last few years “too much money” is the most common source of blame.

  11. I’m just so relieved we have such intelligent and level-headed MPs to take all those difficult decisions for us.

  12. Nigerian LibDem PPC Ukonu Obasi, 38, denies he has made any fraudulent claims on his CV:

    http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/15274579.Lib_Dem_39_s_candidate_apologises_for_publishing_outdated_career_profile/?ref=mr&lp=15

  13. Labour got 80.6% of the votes here.

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