Walsall North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12455 (33.8%)
Labour: 14392 (39%)
Lib Dem: 840 (2.3%)
Green: 529 (1.4%)
UKIP: 8122 (22%)
TUSC: 554 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 1937 (5.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands.

Main population centres: Bloxwich, Willenhall.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
DAVID WINNICK (Labour) Born 1933, Brighton. Former advertising manager. Willesden councillor 1959-1964, Brent councillor 1964-1966. Contested Harwich 1964, MP for Croydon South 1966-1970. Contested Croydon Central 1974, Walsall North 1976 by-election. First elected as MP for Walsall North in 1979.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12395 (34%)
Lab: 13385 (37%)
LDem: 4754 (13%)
BNP: 2930 (8%)
Oth: 2723 (8%)
MAJ: 990 (3%)
2005*
Con: 9350 (28%)
Lab: 15990 (48%)
LDem: 4144 (12%)
BNP: 1992 (6%)
Oth: 1952 (6%)
MAJ: 6640 (20%)
2001
Con: 9388 (29%)
Lab: 18779 (58%)
LDem: 2923 (9%)
UKIP: 812 (3%)
Oth: 410 (1%)
MAJ: 9391 (29%)
1997
Con: 11929 (28%)
Lab: 24517 (57%)
LDem: 4050 (9%)
Oth: 1376 (3%)
MAJ: 12588 (29%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DOUGLAS HANSEN-LUKE (Conservative) Born 1970. Educated at Oxford University. Investment consultant.
DAVID WINNICK (Labour) See above.
NIGEL JONES (Liberal Democrat)
ELIZABETH HAZELL (UKIP) Educated at Brownhills Community School. Electrician. Contested Walsall North 2010.
MIKE HARRISON (Green) Teaching assistant.
PETE SMITH (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 82 Responses on “Walsall North”
  1. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority.

  2. Winnick holds Walsall North with a majority of 1,937 : Swing to Labour 1.2%

  3. David Winnick had strong words (to put it mildly) for the Tory candidate and campaign in his acceptance speech.

    By far the longest speech was given by the TUSC candidate Pete Smith, who came fifth with 545 votes. I’m amazed the returning officer allowed him to go on for so long…

    Declaration at 9:54:30

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otYmStYPlDc

  4. As David Winnick is now 82, one doubts whether he will be a candidate at the next General Election.

    David Winnick is definitely on the left of the Labour Party. We have not been told much about his attack on the Tory candidate at the declaration, but David Winnick does not seem to have got less fiery with advancing age.

    Although he has been MP for this seat for over 30 years, David Winnick’s majority has been reduced to more or less 1000 votes on four occasions (1983, 1987, 2010, 2015). The next Labour candidate may have considerable difficulty in inheriting this seat.

  5. Perhaps. Though I’m not sure if Winnick would have much of a personal vote – he’s never come across as a very warm character to me and despite his long tenure may in fact be a negative for voters rather than a positive. This is one of the many seats where what happens to the 2015 UKIP vote will be very interesting indeed.

  6. ‘The next Labour candidate may have considerable difficulty in inheriting this seat.’

    Which shows you the great difficulty Labour has

    If they struggle to win in an overwhelmingly working class and urban seat like this with its large(ish) ethnic minority, their electoral prospects elsewhere in England look very bleak indeed

  7. If Corbyn remains leader the Tories will win here in 2020. There isn’t really a significant ethnic vote here in contrast to Walsall South.

  8. Labour will lose in 2020 with Corbyn as leader, I agree. I don’t know who will win though.

  9. I’d imagine he’d see out his term at least.

  10. Can we not please do the sickening Lib Dem thing of salivating over people dying and thus causing byelections?

  11. Very poor taste

    In Andy’s declaration video from 2015 David Winnick looks pretty good for 82

  12. David Winnick will serve until he becomes Father of the House. He is just a mere 83, there are plenty more erections left in him.

  13. Pedantic point but to become Father of the House Winnick would have to outserve Kaufman, Kenneth Clarke, Skinner, Bottomley, Geoffrey Robinson and Haselhurst. Seems a bit unlikely. This is because it is determined on length unbroken service rather than total service or earliest service. Winnick is the only MP elected in the 1966-70 parliament in the House today but was absent from 1970 to 1979.

  14. Incidentally the MP who is apparently very ill – who I referred to on the Gorton page – isn’t this one or Kaufman or one of the oldest 5.

    It’s in poor taste so I’m not naming him/her.

    But by-elections can come from unlikely seats. Indeed it’s hardly ever the oldest Members who pass away first.

  15. Labour is really staring down the barrel here- only Boston & Skegness is projected to have voted to leave the EU by a wider margin.

  16. Andy Street carried Walsall borough 49-35. Even accounting for the borough including Aldridge-Brownhills as well as the two Walsall seats that suggest he carried Walsall North fairly comfortably.

  17. Lds could run a stop the tories campaign here and suck up votes from all over the place to come through the middle

  18. “Andy Street carried Walsall borough 49-35. Even accounting for the borough including Aldridge-Brownhills as well as the two Walsall seats that suggest he carried Walsall North fairly comfortably.”

    I imagine much of the remaining Labour vote in Walsall is in Walsall South, where the BEM population is much higher. On those figures there’s indeed little doubt that the Tories carried North very easily.

    “Labour is really staring down the barrel here- only Boston & Skegness is projected to have voted to leave the EU by a wider margin.”

    If the Tories only made 10 gains from Labour this would almost certainly be one of them. As they are almost certain to make more than 30 gains from Labour, this seat is surely as close to a nailed-on gain as it is possible to get.

    I feel sorry for David Winnick, his abrasive awkward squad style isn’t my cup of tea but parliament needs those kinds of characters. His inevitable fate reaffirms Enoch Powell’s dictum about all political careers ending in failure yet again. I wonder if he would have preferred a more dignified retirement in 2010, 2015 or 2017 but, given his prickly style, I suspect he wouldn’t have.

    “Lds could run a stop the tories campaign here and suck up votes from all over the place to come through the middle”

    Not sure why I’m bothering to reply to stupid trolling but that’s obviously a steaming pile of horseshit. If there was one seat in the UK where the LD vote could potentially decline from the previous level of 2%, this could conceivably be it.

  19. Good post as always HH – re Teddy, I sense that is another JJB incarnation….?!

  20. I think this will be very close but I would be surprised if it didn’t go Tory.

  21. On the subject of this seat, I was reading about the 1976 byelection that took place here. If there’s been a Conservative MP here in the past, it does set a good percedent for them to make a gain here.

  22. The Results,

    Yes the Conservatives did take the seat in the November 1976 by-election, but that was a rather extraordinary affair. It arose after sitting MP John Stonehouse did a “Reggie Perrin” before being relocated under an assumed name in Australia, brought back to the UK and convicted of fraud.

    Its not altogether surprising that the good people of Walsall, also probably disenchanted with the then Labour government anyway, elected a Conservative on a massive 22.5% swing : the largest Labour Conservative swing of that parliament.

    Had they also known at the time that Stonehouse was acting as a spy for the Czech government, it might have been even bigger!

  23. CON GAIN

  24. Must admit, seeing this go to Cons but others like Peterborough go to Labour seems quite strange indeed.

  25. I suppose one thing this, Mansfield and Canterbury have in common is that perhaps the public are just a bit sick of politicians who have been around for 40 or 50 years.

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