Vale of Glamorgan

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23607 (46%)
Labour: 16727 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 1309 (2.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2869 (5.6%)
Green: 1054 (2.1%)
UKIP: 5489 (10.7%)
Others: 238 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6880 (13.4%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, South Glamorgan. Part of the Vale of Glamorgan council area.

Main population centres: Barry, Llanwit Major, Cowbridge, St Athan, Dinas Powys.

Profile: The low lying, rolling countryside along the south Wales coast, south-west of Cardiff. It is mostly small agricultural villages and towns, coastal villages and the large seaside resort and industrial docks of Barry, at the eastern end of the seat. The constituency also includes the MoD base at St Athan and Cardiff International Airport.

Politics: Barry tends to vote Labour, while the rural parts of the seat are Conservative, making this a tight Conservative vs Labour marginal. It has swapped hands between the two parties several times since its creation in 1983. It was originally a Conservative seat, but Labour`s John Smith won the seat in the 1989 by-election that followed the death of Raymond Gower. The Conservatives narrowly regained the seat in 1992 under Walter Sweeney, but he was to be only a one-term MP (he has subsequently stood in by-elections and police elections as an Independent in Hull) with Smith regaining the seat in 1997. The Conservatives regained the seat at the 2010 election.

Current MP
ALUN CAIRNS (Conservative) Born 1970, Swansea. Educated at Ysgol Ddwyeithog Ystalyfera. Former business development consultant and Member of the Welsh Assembly. Contested Gower 1997, Vale of Glamorgan 2005. First elected as MP for Vale of Glamorgan in 2010. Under Secretary for Wales and Government whip since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 20341 (42%)
Lab: 16034 (33%)
LDem: 7403 (15%)
PC: 2667 (5%)
Oth: 2222 (5%)
MAJ: 4307 (9%)
Con: 17673 (37%)
Lab: 19481 (41%)
LDem: 6140 (13%)
PC: 2423 (5%)
Oth: 1607 (3%)
MAJ: 1808 (4%)
Con: 15824 (35%)
Lab: 20524 (45%)
LDem: 5521 (12%)
PC: 2867 (6%)
Oth: 448 (1%)
MAJ: 4700 (10%)
Con: 18522 (34%)
Lab: 29054 (54%)
LDem: 4945 (9%)
PC: 1393 (3%)
MAJ: 10532 (20%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
ALUN CAIRNS (Conservative) See above.
CHRIS ELMORE (Labour) Vale of Glamorgan councillor.
DAVID MORGAN (Liberal Democrat)
KEVIN MAHONEY (UKIP) Born 1959. Educated at Sully School and Stanwell. Former gas engineering supervisor. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 2007 Welsh Assembly, 2010.
ALAN ARMSTRONG (Green) Born Newcastle. Social worker and therapist.
IAN JOHNSON (Plaid) Born Cardiff. Educated at Barry Boys Comprehensive and UCL. Head of policy for Plaid Cymru. Vale of Glamorgan councillor since 2012. Contested Vale of Glamorgan 2010.
Comments - 172 Responses on “Vale of Glamorgan”
  1. HH – the North East voted heavily against, of course.

    Rivers10 – people favour devolving powers; they just oppose creating more politicians. It’ll be interesting how Councils behave once they receive the Business Rates, as well as the new Metro Mayors proposed for Greater Manchester and Merseyside.

  2. This seems fairly simple. Devolving powers seems sensible, so people say they support it, but you don’t really want more devolution unless you’re prepared to have the politicians to run it.

  3. The problem is as Jack states though, you are limited in what you can devolve to city regions. I always use the example of tuition fee’s. Put aside your personal opinion on them and the supposed merits/cons and just focus on democracy. In 2010 when the Tories said they would increase them Scotland rejected the Tories and they have no fee’s, Wales rejected the Tories and they kept fee’s frozen at 3,000£ The three Northern regions also rejected the Tories but we got saddled with the 9,000£ fees (and all the subsequent penalties re grants etc since) by the sheer weight of the rest of England. This is unfair but conversely it would be plain ridiculous to devolve tuition fee’s to local authorities and city regions, it would be pure chaos.

    The solution has to be devolution to some type of reasonably similarly sized, economically viable regions. How these regions are drawn can be debated but England as a whole is far too big and local authorities and even city regions are too small. It has to be somewhere in between.

  4. I’m not sure tuition fees is a particularly good example. Before about 2009/10 tuition fees were paid by the student’s local authority, rather than by the central Student Finance company. It would be perfectly possible to reinstate such a system, and let each local authority decide how much financial support they were willing to provide to their own students.

    Of course, this could then lead to a “postcode lottery” situation, potentially with students in neighbouring local authorities having vastly differing levels of tuition fees to pay for attending the same university, but this is an inevitable consequence of devolution and no different from the present situation of the student from Berwick-upon-Tweed having to pay £36,000 for their honours degree from Edinburgh University, while the one from Jedburgh pays nothing.

  5. Andy
    There are probably better examples than tuition fees true its just one that sticks in my mind what with being a student.

    As you state though if local authorities are given that power chaos would just ensue with the postcode lottery you speak of. At present this unfair divide is confined to border regions, devolution of this nature to local authorities would result in such irregularities springing up pretty much everywhere.

    I should re state the point that this isn’t an argument against devolution, I’m massively in favour of it I just don’t think devolution to local authorities is the way to go.

  6. I think it’s a compelling case for the classic “disease” of British public opinion, where people appear to want mutually contradictory things. For example, if you ask people about the devolution of powers to local areas, polls show that they are broadly in favour, but if you ask people about the consequences of that (such as postcode lotteries in healthcare provision or whatever) they are solidly against.

    A bit like the British public’s preference for a mythical voting system which allows for strong, single-party government, where seats won are proportional to votes cast, where the one-member-per-constituency link is retained and where lots of parties are represented in Parliament.

  7. Andy
    Again I agree totally, I’ve said this many times before but the publics ignorance borders on dangerous, frankly they get the politicians they deserve, two faced manipulative types who’s sole purpose is to try and dupe the public since that’s the only way to actually win them over. Hence I always argue that devolution should just be imposed since those against would come up with some catchy one liners arguing against it and the public would then be totally immune to actual facts. Once the public see devolution in action they’d almost certainly come to accept it.

  8. Knife edge win for Remain.

  9. Cairns in number 10 at the moment. Almost certain he will be reappointed welsh sec.

  10. Number 10 confirm Alun Cairns remains as welsh Secretary.

  11. If Cairns is still the welsh Secretary by the time of the next election he could be a cabinet minster losing his seat if said election leads to a labour victory nationally.

  12. Although Amber Rudd is a more obvious candidate for that role. There were actually quite a few high-profile Tories (former or current Cabinet Ministers) who came very close to losing their seats – Justine Greening, Anna Soubry, Stephen Crabb, Theresa Villiers – but as far as I am aware only more junior ministers were actually thrown out of parliament.

  13. Ben Gummer was an attend cabinet role I think.
    Rudd of course would probably lose her seat if the next election sees labour make even only a few net gains in England.

  14. Lab have quite a few potential scalps on offer if their looking to win a majority. As well as those mentioned…

    IDS in Chingford will very much be a desired scalp by the Lab grassroots for obvious reasons.

    BoJo could be in trouble in Uxbridge, that would be a real Portillo moment.

    I imagine he’ll probably retire come the next election but Ken Clarke is looking shaky in Rushcliffe too.

  15. There’s all sorts of potential Portillo Moments. My god, just saying that at all in itself is somewhat extraordinary…

  16. Con Cllr Anthony Hampton has been charged with 10 counts of sexually assaulting 2 minors in another historic offences’ case.

    As well as a Vale of Glamorgan Cllr and former Cabinet Member for Education, he is also a Barry Town Cllr.

  17. Alun Cairns will not be standing for tory leader.

  18. Not even on his tiptoes?

  19. A nobody who had no chance anyway rules himself out. Hold the front pages.

  20. Alun Cairns has resigned from the cabinet after getting caught up in a scandal with a Conservative AM who is stands accused of perverting the course of justice in a rape trial.

    While the electoral fallout seems almost inconsequential next to the actual allegations, it’s not a big majority here…

  21. And the population here is gradually becoming more Cardiff-esque. I don’t think Labour will win this time but long-term the Tories’ days are probably numbered here.

    As an aside, I wonder if the closure of the Ford plant in Bridgend will have any impact in the Bridgend and VoG constituencies?

  22. Some Mumurings of Welsh Tories having issues here still due to the scandel.

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