Vale of Clwyd

2015 Result:
Conservative: 13760 (39%)
Labour: 13523 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 915 (2.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2486 (7.1%)
UKIP: 4577 (13%)
MAJORITY: 237 (0.7%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, Clwyd. Part of the Denbighshire council area.

Main population centres: Rhyl, Prestatyn, Rhuddlan, Denbigh, St Asaph.

Profile: As the name suggests, the seat covers the valley of the river Clywd, stretching inland from the north Wales coast. By far the biggest population centers are the towns of Rhyl and Prestatyn, both traditional seaside holiday towns on the Irish sea. The inland settlements are smaller - the old county town of Denbigh and the tiny city of St Asaph - a historic Cathedral city that had its city status formally returned in 2012 as part of the Jubilee celebrations.

Politics: The Vale of Clywd seat was created in 1997 and was held by Labour until 2015. The constituency was the location for one of the most memorable events of the 2001 election - it was on a visit to Rhyl that John Prescott punched a member of the public who threw an egg at him.


Current MP
JAMES DAVIES (Conservative) Born St. Asaph. Educated at Cambridge University. Former GP. Denbighshire councillor since 2004. First elected as MP for Vale of Clwyd in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12508 (35%)
Lab: 15017 (42%)
LDem: 4472 (13%)
PC: 2068 (6%)
Oth: 1469 (4%)
MAJ: 2509 (7%)
2005*
Con: 10206 (32%)
Lab: 14875 (46%)
LDem: 3820 (12%)
PC: 2309 (7%)
Oth: 1103 (3%)
MAJ: 4669 (14%)
2001
Con: 10418 (32%)
Lab: 16179 (50%)
LDem: 3058 (9%)
PC: 2300 (7%)
Oth: 391 (1%)
MAJ: 5761 (18%)
1997
Con: 11662 (30%)
Lab: 20617 (53%)
LDem: 3425 (9%)
PC: 2301 (6%)
Oth: 1127 (3%)
MAJ: 8955 (23%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JAMES DAVIES (Conservative) Born St. Asaph. Educated at Cambridge University. GP. Denbighshire councillor since 2004.
CHRIS RUANE (Labour) Born 1958, Rhyl. Educated at Blessed Edward Jones RC High School and University of Wales. Teacher. Contested Clwyd North West 1992. MP for Vale of Clwyd 1997 to 2015. PPS to Peter Hain 2003-2007.
GWYN WILLIAMS (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL DAVIES-COOKE (UKIP)
MAIR ROWLANDS (Plaid)
Links
Comments - 130 Responses on “Vale of Clwyd”
  1. The Alternative to your proposal would be to extend the M56 Motorway to reach Holyhead.

  2. I expect it will be close here, this time.

    There could be a swing from Lib Dem TO Conservative.

  3. CON GAIN

  4. Congratulations to DINBYCH DAI, you were right!

  5. Amazing result. Didn’t expect this in a million years. What was the majority?

  6. Wow, tiny majority of 237 but still wow!

  7. Dinbych Dai :

    You have bragging rights. Well called.

  8. Full Result:

    Con 13,760 39%
    Lab 13,523 38.4%
    UKIP 4,577 13.0%
    PC 2,486 7.1%
    LD 915 2.6%

    Majority 237. Swing 3.8%

  9. This seat was supposed to have been lost for the tories for good? Every result since and including the 2010 election has been good for labour. This result is mind boggling.

  10. No disrespect to the Cons Candidate, But if he had been any other profession than a Doctor, he may not have won.

    There has been a row over Maternity Services at Glan Clwyd Hospital, with the Hea

  11. Thank you Andrea.

    The Health Board had wanted to reduce the maternity service at the local hospital. Resulting in perhaps a thirty mile plus journey to an alternative maternity facility.

  12. Give yerself a pat on the back DINBYCH DAI – for predicting this seat would be close (pity you never once said “CON GAIN”).

  13. DD – that’s an issue in a few areas. It was mentioned in Bury and in Liverpool, Fazakerley/Aintree lost its maternity ward almost a decade ago.

  14. Several wards in the VofC are high on the Wales list of most deprived wards in Wales. Or perhaps I should say, Sub divisions of some wards in VofC contain pockets of deprivation.

    The constituency is well served by rail, having two stations (Rhyl and Prestatyn) on the Euston to Holyhead line.

  15. Note that Cameron on BBC Wales is already saying the following…

    ‘I’ve been talking to my new MP in VoC and he tells me that North Wales faces a battle with Cardiff to get priority for available funding….I want to ensure that Rhyl and Kinmel Bay gets the necessary funding required for significant re-development’…..amazing what voting can achieve – !!!

  16. It also makes good political sense for the Conservatives to support small town regional England and Wales against their local big city.

    For two long devolving power from London, and regional policy in general, has been to the benefit of big cities and to the disadvantage of industrial areas, market towns and rural communities.

    There are of course very few Conservative votes in big regional cities – Cardiff being ironically perhaps the main exception.

  17. I wonder which conservatives will put their names forward to be the Cons candidate at the assembly election next year?

  18. ‘Several wards in the VofC are high on the Wales list of most deprived wards in Wales.’

    That’s not surprising given that Rhyl is one of the most deprived and run-down seaside towns in the UK – eclipsing places like Hastings, Yarmouth and Margate

    The Tories must have some strength in the surrounding countryside as I would have thought Denbigh and even Prestatyn nowadays to be Labour-voting towns too

  19. I think Denbigh is pretty equally split between Plaid, Cons and Labour.

    St Asaph could be slightly more Tory

  20. Probably Prestatyn has slightly more Conservative voters than 50% otherwise the result could possibly have been different.

  21. The North Wales Health Board (BCUHB) has now been put in Special measures.

    I think one could speculate that is a direct result of the GE election result.

    But what a sad reflection on the political system that it took the election result for Labour to listen to the public, who have been unhappy with the performance of Health and Social Care in North Wales for so many years?

    Democracy works (eventually)

  22. I can see this seat eluding Labour in 2020 given James Davies’ incumbency, and also because of the general trends in this seat which are definitely not in Labour’s favour in the long run I would wager. It could still be quite close here again in five years time, but I wouldn’t rule out an increased Tory majority of about 1000.

  23. Is this seat likely to have its boundaries changed bfore 2020?

    I agree that this seat is increaingly commuter land and likely to become comparatively worse for Labour.

  24. Tory majority of 1,800

  25. Chris Ruane has announced he is standing to try and regain his seat. On current polls that seems an unlikely prospect.

  26. Not sure about James Davies here. Possibly over critical of the local hospital that is very popular with the locals.

  27. BBC reporting that Labour are slightly confident of winning this seat back! Very picturesque part of the country! Big boost to Welsh Labour if this happens!

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