Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,742 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. Very true on the last point.

    The reason the Asian grooming gangs were not pursued by GMP was a mixture of ineptitude and liberalism of previous Ch Cons Fahy.

    Indeed it’s only by accident that the recent Asian rapist of 200+ straight men was caught. GMP actually arrested his victim for punching him! [Only because the drugged and confused victim mistakenly picked up an old phone of the assailant – which GMP then checked – was the footage found of his attacks]

    As Graham Stringer commented, on recent evidence, if there is a serial killer canal pusher [for those unaware 106 bodies 90% of which were males aged 18-40 have been found in water in Manchester over the past 8 years] it’ll take GMP 20 years to admit so!

  2. I think what happened in Manchester, Rotherham, Rochdale and Oldham is the biggest indictment of Labour-run councils then anything the loonie Left did in Liverpool and London during the 1980s. And fair play to Labour Mps like Sarah Champion who have been willing to call this out

    And the Police – which is precisely why – as Hemelig said earlier – those on the Right today seem to be as disillusioned with the police as those on the Left

    And of course the social workers who never, ever seem to learn from identical mistakes made in the past time and time again

  3. I agree (of course) although from what both Stringer and other former Leaders of MCC have said – it was the Council Officers at fault not the City Cllrs.

    They both took the decision not to act and failed to inform the Council Leaders.

  4. Election Winner 2020

    Donald Trump
    4/7
    Bernie Sanders
    7/2
    Michael Bloomberg
    8/1

    Bernie is odds-on favourite to be the Dem Nom @ 4/5.

  5. I don’t think Sanders can beat Trump – but then again people said the same about left-wing Democrat Obama v moderate Republican McCain. Whilst Bloomberg has the money – and is about as centrist a politician as you find in the US – I’m not sure he has the enthusiasm, energy or the charisma to turn out the Democrat vote in the sort of numbers he will need to beat Trump in the electoral college.

    Whilst he’s likely to keep the democrats competitive in places like Florida, Virginia and Colorado, it’s hard to see him being the man to reconnect with the blue collar vote who went with Trump in 2016 in rust belt states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania

    As much as I’ve learned to humour Trump – four more years of him at the helm of the most powerful nation in the world will feel like a real slap in the face and a defeat for human decency.

  6. Sanders is currently the most popular democrat with 70% approval. He also beats Trump in head to head match ups. There’s no empirical evidence to suggest Sanders is any less likely to beat Trump than anyone else.

    Recent polling on Wisconsin shows quite large swing to the Republicans whoever is the Democratic Nominee but Michigan and Pen state are bettet prospects

  7. We’ve received some interesting info re potential plans in the UK re coronavirus.

    Unusually it wasn’t embargoed and so I see a few of the nationals have run with some of the operational details. It won’t surprise most on here and includes plans to restrict travel and test all patients in the NHS and so on.

    Although thankfully we haven’t seen the panic buying that left the shelves empty of pasta in N Italy. Apart from face masks and hand sanitiser apparently running low.

    It appears the mortality rate is nearer 4% than 2% so it is getting a little tiresome when some ‘experts’ say flu is more dangerous. The obvious difference being that there’s a vaccine for that and only 1% die.

  8. Quote from Dominic Sandbrook’s bestseller “Cripes! The Rise and Fall of Boris Johnson” (published in 2030)-

    “In retrospect, the seeds for Labour’s landslide victory at the 2024 election were sowed just a few months after the Tories’ victory in December 2019.

    The coronavirus which swept through the nation in Spring 2020, returned for an even more deadly round the following winter. In total, 40% of the population were estimated to have caught the virus, of which about 2% died, equating to just over 500,000 deaths.

    These deaths were mostly in the elderly age groups. Given the massive polarisation in voting behaviour between old and young, this resulted in a significant net die-off of Tory voters. Deaths of Labour and Lib Dem voters, being on average much younger and fitter, were negligible.

    And then there were the indirect effects of the virus. After 10 years of austerity cuts, the NHS buckled under the strain. Its response at the height of the pandemic was widely considered to be dreadful and experts judge this led to many avoidable deaths. For the first time in a decade, Labour’s attacks on Tory austerity and running down the NHS struck a chord with the majority of the public and began to pay major electoral dividends.

    Economically, the death of so many asset-rich baby boomers led to a collapse in the property market, as hundreds of thousands of houses suddenly flooded the market, at a time when the global economy was already in recession due to the virus. Property prices fell by 30% in 2020 and by another 10% in 2021. Negative equity was back for the first time since the early 1990s, putting a whole generation of young families who benefitted from Tory “help to buy” schemes under water.

    The victory of the statesmanlike Keir Starmer over the hapless Rebecca Long Bailey in Labour’s leadership election was the other key development in 2020. He tilted Labour back to the centre ground and made it acceptable for middle England to vote Labour for the first time since Blair.”

  9. Amusing, although re housing I suspect many who inherit would simply be renters who moved into them.

    That’s what’s happened with those inheriting ex-council Right to Buy houses in the North West.

    On the wider front, I’d argue a virus from abroad would in fact have the opposite result ie Starmer could hardly extol the virtues of free movement. The only surveys I’ve seen thus far have certainly seen a hardening in attitudes and a drop off in those attending Chinese and Italian restaurants.

    Labour are hardly 500k off winning, they’re millions behind. You could be right but only if the spread results in damage to the 30 and 40yo plumbers etc that all voted Tory and are largely self employed.

    I was amused to hear Liverpool’s City Mayor say people are being racist. It may well be unfortunate, but where else does he think Wuhan flu came from? It’s hardly a surprise that there’s been no cases in eg the Highlands or Cornwall or Antrim, as most cases will be caught where international students frequent ie city centres.

    As for deaths: those aged eg 85 would die from whatever they caught at that age, so I find it a bit false for people to say flu kills eg 10k pa and this might kill 40k.

  10. Personally I think it’s overblown and that the caravan will move onto something else in due course. But perhaps that’s wishful thinking. And we’re also overdue a downturn so some kind of house price correction is highly likely. I do not think it will be so easy to be a private landlord in the future.

  11. I’m not on Twitter, but I’m told that panic buying is trending.

    Locally, suspermarkets have placed restrictions on certain products, due to people bulk buying eggs, toilet roll, handwash and ibuprofen.

    Nationally supermarkets say there is no lack of supply, but clearly there are now empty shelves due to unusual demand in parts.

  12. The lesson to learn from this disaster is – yet again: humans should stop eating other animals.

  13. Not sure where that came from. Just don’t eat live rats and bats!

    Did the weekly shop and unsurprisingly there was no toilet roll, UHT milk, pasta or paracetamol (none of which we needed btw).

    I hear that a Cllr has the virus, which I think is the first politico in the UK (I’m aware 2 MPs died in Iran and 2 have it in Italy).

  14. “The lesson to learn from this disaster is – yet again: humans should stop eating other animals.”

    No matter how much success the Monbiot tendency has in pushing this line here and in liberal western European countries, it will be pissing in the wind compared with the massive increase in meat-eating going on in China. In simplistic terms, hundreds of millions of rural peasants moving to the cities and getting richer from the spoils of urban life equates to swapping a simple rice-based diet for a more western diet containing much more meat. China is constantly scouring the planet for more and more meat and fish.

    Can’t see the Americans reducing their meat eating either – the Brazilians and Argentinians are even more carnivorous than the US.

  15. One trope I absolutely loathe is, “[insert current event] vindicates [insert personal ideology].” I have never seen more of it than I have about coronavirus. Tankies were the early adopters with their “wow, you can’t build a hospital in two weeks in capitalist societies” takes; but now we see it everywhere, from right-wing nationalists arguing it justifies closing the borders, to left-liberals cheering a disease that is killing thousands of people as long as it helps jettison Trump from office.

    You almost have to feel sorry for the three libertarians still existing in political discourse. They get bugger all from coronavirus, and just can’t wait for the epidemic to pass so they can get back to boring us all to tears telling us how wonderful Bitcoin is.

  16. Not often we agree, but I’m with you on this.

    Online it is either we’re all doomed or nothing to see here.

    Thankfully the general public appears more sensible, notwithstanding the fist fights in the supermarket over the last multi-pack of bog roll (we even saw that here in leafy East Grinstead last Friday).

  17. I understand that 2 UK Parliamentarians and a SpAd have tested positive.

    Obviously tracing is taking place as I understand that the MP attended PMQs and held a surgery.

  18. The technology exists to allow parliament to carry on its business remotely; but the legislation is not there. I would have thought an emergency bill to enable the Commons to maintain debates and votes through the shutdown.

  19. Polling is somewhat meaningless right now but: Con 50 Lab 29.

    Tories’ joint-biggest score since Thatcher, I believe.

  20. It’s more likely the House will simply rise early (if the peak is in June as experts have suggested).

    It’s established that you have to be present to vote and I don’t think that should ever be changed. Indeed if you were very ill and on morphine you definitely shouldn’t be voting via a laptop.

    We still have no cases in Sefton or West Lancs, but the Liverpool bay is full – because the Welsh have been sending their cases here. Likewise the Scots > Newcastle, so new regional bays have had to be established in Manc etc as all but two of the national ones are now occupied.

  21. PT – no, there are a few polls over 50% under Maggie (see the lists on this site > )

  22. Did Blair ever reach 50% in the mid 90s – prior to being in government of course

    It’s still honeymoon for the Johnson government but I do wonder where that extra 6% has come from – a pretty hefty increase by any measure particularly after winning an election

    Johnson should enjoy the popularly whilst it lasts.

  23. Blair reached 51% on the 26th of Feb 2002

  24. Labour regularly polled well into the 50s in 1994-97, if I remember correctly. Though polling methodology then was quite different from now and almost always overestimated Labour.

  25. HH is right.

    I’ve just checked and Maggie scored 52% in 4 polls in 1983, whereas Blair’s highest ratings were all in opposition under Major.

    Labour achieved the largest fall in Govt post Cold War, during Sep 2000. In the fuel crisis they lost 30% taking them from a 22% lead in the polls to a Hague Tory lead of 8%(when the pumps ran dry a day after TB said it’d all be sorted within 24 hours).

    Blair has since written that he simply didn’t understand the mood, in part because the first place to run dry was the North West (due to the proximity to Stanlow) and his advisors hadn’t noticed any problems in London. I recall seeing the queues at petrol stations at the time. I was car sharing and Merseyside ran out of bread and milk within 72 hours. Partly due to panic buying, but also because some hauliers agreed with the protests and refused to pass B Williams’ blockades [which were just a few cones at the start ie could have been driven around] and so the milk didn’t get delivered.

  26. Apparently the Locals, PCC & Mayoral elections are to go ahead in May, with anyone with concerns advised to request a postal or proxy vote.

    Needless to say the local govt staff (presiding and counting) aren’t happy.

  27. Sky are saying they’ll be postponed for a year – but no comment yet from Downing Street.

    I assume all that is needed is an SI to be laid before Parliament.

  28. The first 2 polls show that the public agree with the Govt’s approach: 55% – 58%

    26% – 30% disagree

  29. Benefits we could see long-term:

    More GP appointments via laptop;

    Sicknotes by email;

    Outpatients being reformed from the 1960s Carry On films (the words of a Consultant)

    People having a stock (not a stockpile) of 8 days’ worth of food as we apparently had in the 1980s – as it’s now down to only 3.5 days’ worth.

    Lesser reliance on foreign players in football

    On a personal note I’m pleased that horse racing and the national league are going ahead. As is rugby league.

  30. I just wanted to wish everyone well on here. In my locality we still have zero cases (and I understand that’s also true in most of rural Wales, Scotland, NI & the North East), but clearly I realise cases are rising rapidly particularly in larger cities.

    I checked on 2 elderly neighbours and neither were alarmed and were well stocked – which reminded me of that BBC2 series and that rationing and making do went on for years after WWII. I suspect much of the panic buying has been caused by social media, some of the nationals and the BBC. I suppose the only benefit from now on is that those people won’t need to stock up again for some weeks.

    I read that c 40% can work from home – or rather are able to. It seems some firms have the IT capability but aren’t yet allowing staff to do so.

    In economic terms, the best expert was the one who referred to pushing down on a balloon and that studies show that after a period of quarantine people end up spending more than would otherwise have been the case in that year – as they’ve missed going to restaurants, cinemas and theatres. Although I’m conscious that that isn’t much comfort to the self-employed and those on zero hours etc.

    Although I found Macron’s statement at the other end of the scale – that no business would go bust – bizarre, as that means ones that would have gone will be subsidised by the epidemic. I’ve already heard the BBC wrongly claiming Laura Ashley went into admin due to corona and they’ve had some really random start-ups on moaning. I think one was an online dance choreographer(!)

  31. I think Macron is right. Demand in many sectors will be essentially zero, possibly by force of law if compliance with the coming lockdown is not adhered to voluntarily. In such conditions businesses going under is not creative destruction – it’s just destruction.

    God this is all so frightening. Stay safe everyone.

  32. Thanks for the good wishes. Gd luck all.

    I’m sorry and I know we’re being asked to treat this like the country’s in wartime but I have to say the latest package looks politically wonky; there’s no help for private residential renters – and the self employed. Crucially too, the level of statutory sick pay at £94 pw is pitifully inadequate for a significant amount of workers.

    However £330bn for businesses is made available.

  33. ‘Lesser reliance on foreign players in football’

    As somebody I assumed was my kind of age I thought you might remember Lancs how awful the majority of football was in the UK prior to the Premietrship

    You still got great some great teams – like the Liverpool side of the 1980s or the Man Utd side of the early 90s, but the game on the whole was dull, unglamorous and most importantly lacking in quality

    Along with the BBC and the NHS, the Premier League is one of the best things to come out of the UK and whilst the Billy Brexiters might dispute it, part of the reason is the influx of the greatest talent from overseas

    Suich players used to go to Italy and then Spain

  34. Tbf the Premier league isn’t much better now. Since they ended the profit sharing between the divisions its been dominated by Fergie and whoever could buy it in the in between years

  35. Tim – I was about to say what about the Liverpool of the ’80s or the Man Utd of the ’90s, ’til you conceded that; but, I’ve just checked and undoubtedly UK players were more ‘talented.’

    The top 20 goalscorers are all still British: Greaves, Shearer, Rush, Herd, Cottee, Hurst, Rooney, Law, Charlton.

    Indeed Thierry Henry isn’t even in the Top 15.

    I suppose it depends what you mean by glamorous? We didn’t have model Lallana or players sporting red trainers, but Best was and Franny Lee & Mick Channon scored 1,000 goals between them and went on to be successful as horse racing trainers.

  36. London sounds grim on the numbers of cases and deaths.

    A quarter of UK deaths are anticipated there – hence the extended mortuaries in the City, Westminster and Southwark today.

    I assume all London pubs, bars & restaurants will be ordered to close by the weekend.

    I hear the Welsh want to ban second home owners from moving there (as presumably west Wales is keen to keep their zero number of cases).

  37. Perhaps now ALL of us realise and appreciate just how essential and ought to be valued are:
    Cleaners
    Care workers
    Nurses
    Bus drivers
    Tube workers
    Shelf stackers
    Delivery drivers
    Teachers
    Refuse collectors
    Posties
    Scientists
    Health care assistants
    Street sweepers
    Transport workers

    Perhaps many more apart from “the Hard Left” can call for decent, liveable wages, wages, protection at work, protection from bullying employers, right to Trade Union representation.

  38. I’m lumping this into the “see, I was right about this all along” stuff I complained about upthread.

    I mean, I’m not “the hard left” and I already acknowledged that those people were important to society. When I have attacked the hard left it has certainly not been because of these things. Please put away your straw man.

  39. Local authority planners are justifiably not valued or essential – but sadly they are required re mortuaries and field hospitals etc.

    AFAIK 25% of children can still attend on average – but that ranges from zero in some rural areas to 100% in a school near a barracks.

  40. Ten years of cruel austerity leading to many tens of thousands of deaths / suicides now being shown to be unnecessary and politically ideological, as many on the Left of the Labour party pointed out – some very early on their period of power…

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/aug/23/jeremy-corbyn-reminded-labour-austerity-must-be-opposed

  41. And now The Bank of England pumping in another £200 billion in quantitative easing, taking QE to £645 billion since 2009.

  42. Cuts to which benefit do you think caused deaths? Mortgage interest relief at source or the ending of sending child benefit to claimants overseas? Because I’ve checked and they were the only benefits that were terminated. All others in fact increased by RPI pa for most of the ‘austerity’ period of DC/GO.

    Because Frank Field as select committee chairman pointed out that it was more often than not errors and omissions by the DWP and local councils that did.

    Life expectancy has continued to rise, as the more recent report showed.

  43. Just floating this out there at the moment: what do people think of the idea of a Government of National Unity? Both in terms of whether they like the idea and whether they think it will happen?

  44. (For me, the answers are yes, and no, respectively.)

  45. Sounds like a good idea. If even to stop some trying to make hay out of the situation. Hasn’t exactly worked wonders in Northern Ireland though

  46. Deepthroat will be mighty disappointed to learn today that those working in financial services are indeed essential key workers.

    Personally I think it’s scandalous that so many GPs retired at 55, so recalling them makes perfect sense.

    PT – a decent idea, but you could argue that’s what we now have with Tories representing all regions. If it’d have happened under May, I suspect only Frank Field would have joined to help the Govt & DUP etc. Although to be fair to them the SNP have been statesmenlike unlike Corbyn & McDonnell – who, of course, can’t be invited to anything due to their age!

  47. No surprise that the Conservatives view financial services staff as essential!

    Now the Govt will pay the wages of employees! Imo They should introduce Universal Basic Income now. £800 to £1000 per month for all people over 18. And keep UBI.

    Also rent reductions should be legislated for , in respect of landlords who have 3 or more properties. Either that or drastically increase the relatively low income tax on rental income. There’s far too many landlords who are very well off and too many (mainly young) people struggling because of rent levels.

  48. UBI is a good idea when we’re hitting 20% unemployment. It is not a good idea in normal times, when a more targeted benefits system (though more generous than we currently have) is preferable.

    These radical measures destroy economies. The only reason they are suddenly a good idea is that we are having to destroy economies anyway in order to fight this virus.

    2020 is going to be the worst year ever. It is therefore somewhat perverse to argue that all the emergencies introduced during it are good long-term policies.

  49. Bank workers are essential workers, even more so during these times. Telephone banking was up 35% yesterday and you’d complain if there was no cash in the ATMs.

    Mayors, Cllrs and Officers aren’t, of course, key workers – but that hasn’t stopped them spouting off on the broadcast media.

    Giving an extra £20 per week to all on Tax Credits isn’t essential, but is welcome. Although tv has been full of ‘creatives’ moaning that they can no longer teach cheese making online to disabled Irish speakers and that’s somehow the fault of corona.

    In the same way there was no need to ban evictions, as County Courts will close for 3 months – but it allays people’s fears.

    PT – untrue. All of the evidence is that there’s no lack of demand. It’s merely surged to supermarkets, utilities, Amazon etc. Once people are let out, spending in restaurants will be higher than it otherwise would have been.

  50. Replenishing ATMs are not carried out by bank workers. Call centre staff I would agree are in a lot cases can be viewed as essential staff. Which is odd, as they are often the most harrassed and most poorly paid employees. (I know someone who works in a bank call centre who despite working there since 2007 was still on just 10% above the minimum wage in 2018 when she.left in disgust. This sort of treatment of staff is commonplace ).

    LO: “In the same way there was no need to ban evictions, as County Courts will close for 3 months – but it allays people’s fears.”

    So cold, calculating and perfunctory – a horrible statement. Have you no compassion? Do you realise how terrifying for most people the threat of evictions are? How much knock on damage it creates for society?

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