Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,669 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. PT is right

    By Deep & Matt’s logic, Labour helped make the Tories more popular.

    Just cos May & Boris achieved 7% and 8% than the DC/GO decade – simply by moving back to Conservatism and where the Country is: conservative and liberal; not socialist and Statist.

  2. Thats exactly what I’m saying. Boris learnt the lessons from 2017. For example rather than telling nurses theres no magic money tree he spent money on the NHS headed off to winter bed crisis early.

    The country is conservative rather than liberal and isn’t socialist but it is statist. People always have an opinion on what the government can do for them. Boris picked up on this too. People think the government should protect them and didn’t like cuts to policing. Pledging to reverse these cuts headed off the criticisms the tories got in 2017

  3. In 1997 Gordon Brown committed to John Majors spending cuts. Today the Tories are committing to ending public spending cuts. Boris Johnson’s Tories commitment to state aid after Brexit makes this the most state interventionist tory party in modern history

  4. I agree with Matt’s assessment of the uk politically. The big advantage Johnson has is that he doesn’t really believe in anything, which means he can gauge the public mood and speak and act accordingly

    Johnson isn’t a politician who wraps himself in ideological dogma – and there might be a lesson for the Labour Party in that

  5. I think Boris is a liberal. Tories ditched immigration targets in this election which was pretty big but didn’t cause a stir because he promised a points based system. This is Boris. It’s forgotten that Boris letter box article was an argument against banning the burqa

  6. Johnson’s letter box article had one purpose and one purpose alone – to show the Tory Right he was one of their own – and it played a big part in getting him the backing of right wing MPs who prior to that article weren’t too sure.

  7. I think the most terrifying thing is not knowing. Boris is the epitome of what Tony Benn called a weathercock. The Tory manifesto was also really empty – apparently it was specifically “intended to sink without trace” to prevent Labour counterattacks when the Tories criticised their manifesto commitments, but it does also have the side-effect of giving the Tories an unusually free hand, which is undemocratic even if you inexplicably trust in their beneficence.

  8. The rumour going round the civil service according to a friend is cannabis legalisation is coming under the government.

  9. Not surprised. Even the legendarily uncool William Hague is in favour these days. It’s a matter of when, not if.

  10. One of Boris’s best traits, I believe, is his global understanding of geopolitics. He’s reliable on things like the fact Russia is a foe, and other things, whilst not automatically koetowing to the USA automatically (whilst instinctively an Atlanticist, IMO a good thing).

  11. Given that well over half the population support cannabis legislation, Boris as the populist he is might well look to do that although the Tory party as a whole is very against such a move which makes me think it won’t happen under this government. Although it is only a matter of time

  12. So Boris Johnson has launched a £500,000 crowdfunder to get the Big Ben bells to ring at 11pm on 31st Jan.

    Apart from being an inane and divisive stunt, how on earth can this cost half a million quid? Someone somewhere is creaming off a hell of a lot of money from this…

  13. Councils are asking people to crowdfund for schools and playgrounds. Did realise the government were doing the same

  14. Different people get motivated by different things. I expect the figure will be reached quite quick.

    With all the red tape and H & S these days, half a million quid isn’t a surprise either.

  15. A daft idea and a grotesque waste of money. Donate money to charity if you got too much!

  16. Boris needs to be careful pissing around this. He may learn that frivolousness by politicians can infuriate people, even ones that vote for you!

  17. Boris Johnson again was on top form at this week’s PMQs as he continues to defy any political characterisation, which doesn’t seem the worst strategy in today’s political environment

  18. If I had to pick out the one key characteristic of the Boris Johnson administration, I don’t think it would be the bread-and-butter economic stuff. The best way to understand it is as more of a political culture than a philosophy of the state. That culture:

    – disregards political norms.
    – avoids scrutiny like the plague.
    – is guided more by what wins votes than any kind of ideology.
    – asks people to put their trust in a person, rather than a policy platform.

    I think these features have been pretty consistent across Boris Johnson’s career, even as the actually message he’s flogged has changed wildly. And it’s also what makes him so dangerous.

  19. I think polltroll’s analysis is pretty apt but I think Johnson’s pragmatism is an asset rather than a liability

    The government’s response to this year’s early challenges wouldn’t have looked out of place from Tony Blair’s New Labour governments and whilst Labour is arguing how best to continue what Corbyn started, Johnson – like any political opportunist – has been able to move his party to the centre ground for the time being

  20. Agree mostly with last two posts. How many previous Tory govtswould go running with their own money £105m, to help out a private company? (flybe)

  21. Just spotted that CCHQ is to move out of London to the Midlands or North of England and 5 Brexit Party MEPs have joined the Conservative Party.

    Deepthroat may think it’s “daft” – but in fact a poll showed that unsurprisingly 52% think bells should ring to mark Brexit. Only 26% were against with the rest not bothered.

  22. Deepthroat: I must confess that on Flybe I find myself to the right of the Conservative Party in my desire to stay out of well-functioning markets; but at the same tine I find myself nodding along to Grace Blakeley’s assessment that the action represents “ad-hoc corporate welfare”. It’s all very disorientating.

  23. “on Flybe I find myself to the right of the Conservative Party in my desire to stay out of well-functioning markets”

    If you regard aviation as a well functioning market I seriously fear for your sanity. It is chock full of grossly unprofitable national carriers subsidised to the hilt yet constantly teetering on the edge of bankruptcy thanks to unsustainable legacy costs and militant unions.

    That said I am nevertheless deeply sceptical about bailing out Flybe and wholly opposed to reducing air passenger duty. It just shows how politicians’ commitment to de-carbonisation targets melt away at the first sign of unpopularity.

    Incidentally a not insignificant problem for Flybe (which is headquartered in Exeter) has been the massively improved rail service from London to the West Country since the new Hitachi trains entered service these past 2 years. Surely this is a good thing.

  24. Well, maybe “well-functioning” was the wrong phrase, but I think you identified that, to the extent that the aviation market is broken it was because the government is already meddling in it too much.

    Now excuse me while I go for a cold shower to expunge my Randian wrongthink.

  25. Government meddling is far from the only factor.

    Legacy carriers are stuck with huge, unsustainable pension costs and massively generous staff wages and entitlements which they can’t change without strike action which would ruin the airline.

    But fares are now set by the Ryanairs and Easyjets which have none of that baggage.

    It is impossible for legacy carriers to prosper except on the longest haul routes.

    And there is the volatility of oil prices too.

  26. CGHQ move seems to be more of a second office than mass staff movement.

  27. Deepthroat: “How many previous Tory govtswould go running with their own money £105m, to help out a private company? (flybe)”

    The irony of this is that almost immediately the bailout had been announced, Flybe announced that they were switching their Newquay flights from Heathrow to Gatwick, hardly helping the regional connectivity the bailout was supposed to be keeping going.

  28. Boris to move the Lords to York or Birmingham.

    That’s one way to shrink it – can’t see a lot of peers being willing to commute if they london based for other reasons.

  29. A bloody stupid idea.

    File alongside estuary airport and bridge to Ireland, as things that are never going to happen.

  30. Posted on here this morning but post disappeared for some reason. It was a short post saying that Wandsworth Voter is being unfair to Flybe re their London-Newquay route, as actually it used Gatwick for many years historically. It only switched to Heathrow about a year ago. Not sure why it has moved back but it is merely back to its normal base. Perhaps they picked up an ex-Thomas Cook slot cheap.

  31. HH, perhaps I was being a little unfair to them. It just seemed ironic that the announcement was almost immediately after the bailout, the reason for which (publicly at least) was based on the regional connectivity argument. Most long-haul flights, to which these connections are presumably needed, still go from Heathrow (even if Gatwick now does have an increasing number of destinations), which to me appears to weaken the argument somewhat. Of course, for me should I want to fly (and for you also presumably), Gatwick is far more convenient to get to, both from my family home in Sharpthorne, and my (currently not occupied by me) flat in Battersea.

  32. Tory constitutional expert explains why moving the Lords out of London isn’t going to work

    https://nortonview.wordpress.com/2020/01/20/westminster-v-york/

  33. Off topic, I had to go to South Ruislip yesterday. I’ve passed it plenty of times on the train and the tube but yesterday was the first time I have ventured into it on foot. Even the beautiful winter sunshine couldn’t disguise its run down grottiness. Peppered with low-rise council flats and dowdy industrial/retail parks, a traditional leafy Tory area it is not. Very multi-ethnic as well.

    This area of the seat at least seems similar to the neighbouring bit of Ealing North around Greenford and Park Royal, which is now solidly safe for Labour. From appearances the Tories have done very well indeed to hold Uxbridge & South Ruislip (though there are undoubtedly nicer and leafier areas in the seat where their vote piles up). Nonetheless it’s a stark illustration of how Boris is running up a down escalator in his own patch. I very much doubt this will be a Tory seat into the 2030s.

  34. As long as the country’s economy doesn’t tank, Boris is safe imo. Lots of voters blindly go for celebrity candidates. And power. Boris ticks both boxes hugely.

  35. Although to be fair the Tories are now winning places that are considerably more uneasy on the eye than South Ruislip – Wolverhampton, Scunthorpe, West Brom, Walsall, Blyth Valley, Redcar, Grimsby, I could go on

    In comparison many Labour seats in London are relatively posh – Putney, Battersea, Hammersmith, Islington, Chiswick and they only narrowly lost Kensington, arguably the poshest seat in the country

  36. I think Hallam is Labour’s wealthiest seat

  37. No it’s the least deprived I believe, not the wealthiest Lab seat, which I would guess is Hampstead and Kilburn or Westminster North ( in terms of average earnings and property prices)

  38. I read that Hallam is the wealthiest seat outside London – which I found quite surprising

  39. Conversely, I believe that Blackpool South is the Tories’ most deprived seat.

  40. I think it’s another seat, but you’re right that Blackpool S contains the poorest ward rep by the Tories in the North.

    I think the one in Clacton is the poorest ward down South they rep.

    Were the 49% in the polls to be repeated, one of the poorest Scottish wards would be Cons again (in Ayrshire).

  41. I’m starting to wonder whether Boris / Priti Patel might try to reintroduce capital punishment.

    Amazing as it would have sounded not long ago, when you think about it the ingredients do seem to be settling into place.

    – Snowballing concerns about violent crime and terrorism
    – Police and prisons can’t cope
    – Home Secretary known to be in favour
    – We can pull out of ECHR obligations after a hard Brexit
    – We are likely to align more closely to the US
    – Boris’s ex-Labour seats in the north will be enthusiastic
    – It will push Labour onto the liberal side of the argument

    Does that sound too far fetched?

    In the 80s, Thatcher used her vocal support for hanging to shore up her working class support (while in practice knowing parliament would always defeat the idea). I wonder if Boris might not try the same thing, or even take it to a referendum and succeed?

  42. No I can’t see it happening. And Definitely not thru a referendum imo. I think there’s a good chance of no referendum at all on anything in the next 15 years (apart from a NI border poll maybe.)

    Recent polls suggest there’s only a slim majority for even the most serious of murders (terrorist 57%; multiple murderers 56%; child killers 53%) while only around 35% of ppl give a yes to bring back capital punishment.

    Plus I don’t think Johnson is that far to the right on crime. And Patel has not really said much that on this apart from on a BBC QT about 6 or 7 years ago.

  43. It sounds unlikely to me, but there’s a nagging part of me that suggests this might just be unthinkability bias. I thought Brexit would fail not on a dispassionate analysis of data which would have led me to conclude that it was 50-50, but because I was emotionally invested in its failure.

    Put more succinctly: heart says no, head says don’t rule it out…

  44. IIRC it’d take a majority nearer 200 than 100 to restore hanging.

    Although polls show a much larger degree of support amongst the public than Deepthroat suggests (51% to 77% of the most recent 21 polls, with only 2 showing a mere plurality in favour rather than a majority.

  45. The FCO advice – to the 30,000 Brits in China – to return home if possible is interesting.

    The Manc Chinese Business Assoc has already said that trade was down over 35% in their city centre restaurants over the past fortnight.

  46. Whilst no one knows what Johnson really believes in – presuming he believes in anything – I’m pretty sure he’s been vocal about his opposition to capital punishment in the past.

    All Tory Home Secretaries have to at least pretend to oppose the death penalty as Micheal Howard’s found it – and that’s largely because since 1997 actually, the Tory parliamentary party as a whole has been pretty staunchly opposed to the reintroduction of the death penalty – or at least it was and I can’t believe all those northerners now amongst their ranks have swung it far to the other direction

    Even those on the far Right fringes of the party like Andrew Bridgen, Nick Budgen, Douglas Carswell, Barry Legg and Michael brown have all spoken out against it in the past and given that other than the DUP no other parliamentary party is in favour – I think the chances of this happening are remote – although it’s not inconceivable that the current PM offers it as a sweetener to those in the red wall if they lose their jobs due to Brexit. He would have another battle with parliament on his hands

  47. Pretty depressing to see the legalised killing of human beings described as a “sweetener”.

    There is plenty of sweetening Johnson can do – including some authoritarian stuff on crime which I don’t agree with but is nevertheless within the current Overton window – without stooping to this level. He’s reckless but he’s not stupid.

  48. I do marvel at your inconsistency sometimes.

    I recall your enthusiasm for military intervention in Syria for example. What is that if not “legalised killing of human beings”? Abortion beyond a certain date, however subjective that date may be, is also legalised killing of human beings.

    If having capital punishment makes a country stupid then the USA, China, Japan and India are all stupid? Unlikely.

    I’m not saying I’m in favour but we have got to find a way to address the appalling rise in violent crime and terrorism with proper deterrents.

  49. Abortion technically does not fit into that as it isn’t technically legal unless two doctors agree the procedure should go ahead, ofc there are no examples where two doctors wouldn’t agree to it but the safeguards are in place all the same.

    Also unlike capital punishment or military intervention, abortion isn’t the legal means to kill a fetus but the legal means for a woman to do it. That sounds likeca tautology but the point is if that were not the case legally the decision does not exist and the woman has this decision forced upon them rather than her make the decision. In same way euthanasia isn’t simply the means to kill yourself but is the legal means for you to make the decision rather than have it made for you.

    TLDR there’s a difference between legally enforcing death on someone and legally giving someone that choice

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