Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,669 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. Given the Tories promised more than Labour 2017 manifesto on the first day I think this election will be the two parties trashing how the other afford their manifesto. I just don’t see how Boris squares low tax high spend.

    Labour leave MPs appear to be significantly being downplayed from this morning. I saw one tweet suggesting 50 Labour rebels. Just before midday John Mann was saying around 10. Now Ronnie Campbell has said he’s changed his mind and won’t vote for the deal. Betting odds still have an extension the most likely outcome at the moment so I still think the deal will fall

  2. Matt W – Untrue. Ronnie Campbell is still voting for the deal (1pm today).

    Incidentally your link has a majority for a deal (it’s increased from 3 from when I looked last night to 15 now).

  3. John Baron (Basildon & Billericay) has seemingly killed the deal by announcing that “ERG will support as it’s a platform for no-deal next year”. Can’t see Ruth Smeeth & co backing that.

    Either he’s a muppet, or he’s a cynical genius who realises that ERGism can only be successful for as long it’s a Maoist insurrection against the status quo; that the actually reality of no-deal would kill the movement on the spot.

  4. Apparently only up to 9 of the former tory mps are voting in favour

  5. Letwin has submitted an amendment that would require Boris to ask for an extension whatever happens tomorrow. Its supprted by Hammond. If passes will mean vote might not even happen tomorrow

  6. Matt W – untrue.

    Indeed of the Ind Cons, only 3 have said they’ll vote against.

    But I agree that more MPs could abstain than the commentators think.

    Does anyone know where O’Mara is?

  7. Odds on meaningful vote passing have lengthened today

  8. Letwin amendment passes by 322 votes to 306. It looks like nine former Tory MPs voted for it- including Hammond and Rudd. Johnson still bullish about not sending an extension letter though…

  9. Boris has til 11 tonight. If not he’ll be told Monday he has 24 hours before he’ll be found in contempt of court

  10. As expected, Boris sent an unsigned Benn Act letter, but sent a signed letter stating that any delay would be a mistake.

    Bogdanor says only a PM’s signature carries the weight of the Govt and the Preorogative, but he has still complied with the Benn Act.

  11. This like the difference between tax evasion and tax avoidance. The former is illegal and wrong. The latter is legal, but still wrong. Boris Johnson’s letter is akin to a tax avoidance scheme. He can’t be legally punished for it; but he can be *politically* punished.

  12. The court will decide that on Monday. Boris was warned he had to abide by the letter and spirit of the law. This clearly does not abide by the spirit.

  13. Ladbrokes Odds:

    Cons majority 10/11

    Labour majority 20/1

  14. Feel Ladbrokes have it about right. If the election were happening today I’d be pretty confident about a Tory majority, but it’s not happening today and an awful lot can change in six weeks.

  15. You have to give it to Boris Johnson – he’s very much the John Gotti of British politics

    Just as the “grabbing women by the pussy” revelation should have ended Donald Trump’s presidential ambitions, you might have thought Johnson’s article on single mothers from The Spectator, which seemingly had no other intention than demonising and poking fun at wwc males, the very people whose support Johnson now needs to win this election, might have given them at least pause for thought at the type of man they are supporting – an entitled snob who thinks they are all scumbags

    Yet every poll shows that these revelations haven’t made a blind bit of difference in the likes of Stoke, wrexham and Bolsover which all look set to send a Tory MP back to Parliament for the first time since the war

  16. Ha…very good post which perhaps broke one or two house rules.

    I thought his Marr interview today was the most shameful ever by a PM. I think a lot of wc ppl are very scared of rising Muslim population; crime; Brexit and think Corbyn is unpatriotic..inter alia, that they’ll vote Tory in significant numbers.

  17. Tim- as I’ve said on here before, many voters that flock to Trump or Johnson are driven mainly by hatred of the ‘other’. Basically this hatred is far stronger and more offensive to them than anything that Trump or Johnson could ever say or do. A very puzzling scenario for those of us that consider ourselves liberals.

  18. The Mail on Sunday report Tories have wargamed Johnson losing his seat but still winning a majority.
    The plan is, citing the precedent of Alec Douglas-Home, to offer a Conservative MP with a big majority near London a peerage and then a ministerial job so that Johnson could stand in a by-election there.
    Dominic Raab would represent Johnson in the Commons until Johnson was back (through what would happen if both of them are gone but the Tories still scrap a majority.)

    Surely very very unlikely. Labour have a controversial candidate and are going backwards in leave seats like this.

  19. It’s telling that these “unseat” operations envisage their successful outcomes happening purely via unprecedentedly efficient tactical voting. They’re basically giving up on winning any more converts from the Tories.

  20. They has been very few tory to lab converts anywhere since 1997.

  21. There is a tendency to say ‘they’re tory let’s move on’ or ‘call Lib Dems and Greens`. I’ll speak to everyone because you’ll gwt tories who will vote for you locally, etc.

  22. Very good point Matt

  23. Boris Johnson has told Robert Peston the UK could leave the transition period at any time it wants in 2020:

    “If we choose at any stage from January to come out of the transition period, that is up to us”

    Interesting comments which could backfire.

  24. Talk of PM losing seat. However, I have Mr Johnson increasing his 5000 majority. Here and nationally and with a little personal sadness I expect the Tory vote to be better most are expecting.

  25. Hard to tell. Some talk of a reduced majority here.

  26. The truth is that Boris Johnson is the more likely to lose his seat that any previous Prime Minister has ever been, but “most likely” =/= “likely”.

  27. Con hold!

  28. PM’s are traditionally returned with huge majorities and whilst I don’t see that happening here, I think Johnson will see his vote go up – which is some turnaround as about 6 months ago this seat looked very vulnerable indeed, even as the Tories ascended in the polls

  29. Thing is it seems Labour is trying to win just by turning out the core & tactical voting. But if they’re going to pull this off they need to pull votes directly from the Tories.

    I just don’t see it. And if they are going to do it, it will be in large part down to a huge polling miss nationally; the “banter scenario” of the Tories winning a majority while Johnson loses seems to me totally implausible.

  30. Very odd behaviour by a PM. Declining to look at a photo of a child msuffering in a hospital, then takes phone off journalist, still doesn’t look at the image and pockets the phone.

    Has he.lost it?

  31. “The truth is that Boris Johnson is the more likely to lose his seat that any previous Prime Minister has ever been”

    I’m a bit doubtful about the certainty of that statement.

    Edward Heath was defending a majority in his constituency of only 2,333 going into the 1970 election. In the event he increased it to 8,058, a majority which Boris might well exceed on Thursday, and was saved in both 1974 and 1997 by boundary changes.

    Also neither Callaghan nor Thatcher had a particularly safe seat. Thatcher would certainly have lost Finchley had she fought the 97 election.

  32. Looking at the MRP Labour is only down two (40-38) from 2017 here. So unless a big turnout rise happens Boris majority will probably only be a little bit higher than the 5,034 he got in 2017. 8000+ would be a big a You Gov error.

  33. deepthroat – if you think that’s odd, just read John Simpson’s interview in the new Radio Times.

    Harold Wilson punched him hard in the stomach and walked off a more experienced reporter said, “Sonny, you don’t doorstep the Prime Minister.”

  34. The Tories have now increased their vote share in six elections in a row… anyone know if this is a record?

  35. “Harold Wilson punched him hard in the stomach and walked off a more experienced reporter said, “Sonny, you don’t doorstep the Prime Minister.””

    And see Adam Bolton’s description of when Healey punched him in the face (much more recent than Wilson, it was in 87 I think).

    They would likely have been prosecuted if they did that to journalists now.

  36. Boris Johnson to legislate to rule out extension of EU ‘transition’

    No deal in 12 and half months time.

  37. I wonder if Boris will move seats in 2024. The new seat would drop his majority from 7k to 2k.

  38. Boris Johnson signals support for a massive bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland. Be interesting to see if it happens – after-all the DUP no longer need buttering up and the costs are extraordinary.

  39. You’ll struggle to find an engineer who believes that is feasible, given the ferocious weather conditions the Cairnryan-Larne crossing is subject to.

    A tunnel is theoretically possible but, as with the Chunnel, would work best as rail-only and the rail system in NI is a different gauge to mainland Britain.

  40. And simply not enough demand for rail use.

  41. Not enough demand for road use either.

    Even the Channel Tunnel is massively under-utilised compared with initial projections, largely because it was designed before the era of budget airlines.

    Today it’s arguable the Channel Tunnel wouldn’t be built because of the massive increase in air travel since the 80s.

    Re a NI connection, if lorries going to Eire used it as their main route instead of the Holyhead and Fishguard ferries, snarling up the M6 and roads between Carlisle and Stranraer, it would soon become very unpopular in north west England and southern Scotland.

  42. bm11 – I think it was agreed when the DUP-Cons annual C & S agreement was renewed a couple of months ago.

    Whilst no longer needed, it hasn’t yet been terminated, which is presumably why Brady referred to the majority being just over 100 and not 84.

  43. I think the DUP will whip themselves now.

  44. Let’s be honest, the bridge is just gimmicky symbolism that will never happen, just like Trump’s wall. Actually, it is at least *nicer* symbolism than the wall, even if it’s still a moronic idea proposed by an unprincipled charlatan.

  45. I think the PM should think about designing and inserting a bridge between young and old; rich & poor; homeowners & property strugglers/no hopers; benefit claimants & the system; Muslim vs a large section of the British people; low earners/ the underpaid and rich employers…

    One achievement of the Labour period Sept 2015 to Dec 2019 was that it forced (it appears) the Tories to the left on a lot of policies.

    Only time will tell us see if Mr J honours the commitments made.

  46. I agree. The Tories committed to ending austerity. They’ve increased minimum wage. Removed the cap and committed to further borrowing. They also introduced energy price freeze.

  47. Tories embracing minimum wage rises is more due to Blair than Corbyn. Ending austerity was going to happen anyway by the Tories’ own logic, now that the deficit is back at a historically normal level. And they’re largely borrowing to dig themselves out of the self-inflicted economic collapse that Brexit is likely to cause. None of this is anything to do with the 2015-19 Labour Party.

  48. Also, I’m noticing a lot of cognitive dissonance on what the Tories have in store for us. On the one hand, Labour “won the argument” and have pushed the Tories towards the centre; on the other hand, this is the most right-wing government Britain has had in our lifetimes, and we might as well say goodbye to the welfare state, the NHS etc.

    Those things can’t both be true!

  49. Economically this is not the most right wing government

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