Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,669 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
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  1. Does anyone here think that the Stop HS2 Campaign would have any bearing on the election here and in Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner? The route goes right through this part of the world and Hillingdon Borough Council (Conservative-run) has been at the forefront of the campaign against the line.

    While I would assume that both Messrs Randall and Hurd would take a position that causes the least trouble on the ground (or even oppose it outright), a UKIP appearance here could make life interesting, even if the seats will probably stay safely Tory.

  2. I think that HS2 is a major issue here. I don’t think it’s major enough to alter the identity of the winning party however.

  3. I have a good friend in South Ruislip and he tells me there is a lot of disquiet about HS2 in the area. Saying that, John Randall has been critical of the proposal. Here is his response to the Department of Transport’s consultation on it back in 2011:
    http://www.uxbridgegazette.co.uk/west-london-news/high-speed-rail/2011/07/26/mp-john-randall-s-hs2-consultation-response-113046-29123802/

  4. Yes, I’m with Barnaby. I think UKIP could profit from it but if Randall takes the line that Rosa (and I) assume he will take, I foresee a reasonably comfortable Conservative hold in Uxbridge in S Ruislip and an even more comfortable hold in Hurd’s seat.

  5. Considering Jeremy Paxman’s beard, at his election in the 1997 by election, John Randall was the first Tory MP for many years to have a beard.

    I understand that Margaret Thatcher did not think that beards were flattering to men.

    Can’t think of any other bearded Tory MP’s, other than Crispin Blunt who had a beard for a period of time.

  6. if you want to see beards look at the labour party(have the lib dems got any mps with a beard?)

  7. Well I remember Jerry Hayes (Harlow) having a beard. There was also the late Robert Jones (West Herts) from 1983 to 1997.

  8. ”(have the lib dems got any mps with a beard?)”

    Yes they have. Here’s the full list-

    1. David Heath (Somerton and Frome)
    2. John Archibald Sinclair, 3rd Viscount Thirso (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross)
    3. Julian Huppert (Cambridge)
    4. Mike Hancock (Portsmouth South)

    Former Lib Dem MPs who had beards included-
    1. Colin Breed (South East Cornwall)
    2. Richard Allan (Sheffield Hallam)
    3. Nigel Jones (Cheltenham)

  9. “Considering Jeremy Paxman’s beard, at his election in the 1997 by election, John Randall was the first Tory MP for many years to have a beard.”

    Jerry Hayes had a beard. I am sure there must have been some others but I can’t think of any!

  10. Rob Jones who was Conservative MP for W Hertfordshire from 1983 until he lost its successor seat, Hemel Hempstead, to Labour in 1997 was also a beardie. Some may also find it hard to believe that John Gummer had a beard earlier in his parliamentary career, when he represented Lewisham W in the early 70s.

  11. Thatcher apparently had a dislike the men with beards – and would not have one in her cabinet

    Fortunately for her during her day you could count the numnber of bearded Tories on one hand – staunch Thatcherite Robert Jones and pro-European Jerry Hayes are the onlky two I can think of

    Right-winger David Wilshire had one for a bit I remember – but must have decided the look didn’t suit him and shaved it off

    I always mistake John Randall for a Labour MP – he certainly looks like one

  12. Julian Amery had a beard latterly though he retired in 1992 of course. Greg Knight was another Tory MP with a beard up to May 1997 so there may have been only a brief period in 1997 when there were none. I’m struggling to imagine John Gummer with a beard

  13. Eric Forth? Nirj Deva?

  14. Eric Forth was another whose beard came late in his political career and Nirj Deva made such little impact as an MP that I’d forgotten he had ever existed

    Stephen Crabb, a hardline Welsh Tory MP, has also grown a beard recently too

  15. He still exists and is an MEP for the South East of England. Actually he was only an MP for five years and I think he made more impact than most people with such relativelty short political careers

  16. Are there any posters on here who have beards, and if so who?

    Would anyone recommend growing one?!

  17. Moustaches seem to have gone out of fashion. A lot of Labour MPs used to have them until about ten years ago.

  18. Yes, that’s right- Peter Mandelson had one until the early 90s I think. That apart he looks barely any different from how he looks today in the old photographs. Bob Ainsworth still has one I think.

  19. John Randall has resigned from the government. No other details yet.

  20. HS2-related? I know Randall is no fan of the scheme (and nor are a great many of his constituents, one of whom is my best friend as it happens).

  21. It may be connected to plebgate.

  22. what is wrong about it? besides being a jumble of themes badly put together.. no mention of him leading in a chorus of the Horst Wessel Lied or somesuch, as he was want to do in his teenage years while tramping with the HJ.. LoL

  23. A Brown

    How would you expect Pete to know whether or not some obscure UKIP minor party official miles away from his own patch once went on an EDL march?

    Whether it’s right for him to be allowed to be a minor party official having allegedly done so….well that’s a matter for UKIP and those who support them.

    I have to say the best thing about the article you linked to is that appalling picture of Farage and the London taxi. You couldn’t have constructed a worse colour clashing, old fogey image if you tried. Unless Farage moves away from posing in flat caps and tweeds next to purple caravans, he can’t expect to ever move away from being a joke figure.

  24. at least he doesn’t say “what ho!”

  25. Interesting to look at the demographics of this seat as well as Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. There is a BME population in both but there’s no sign of either one trending away from the Tories the same way Hayes and Harlington did (and is now near impossible for them to take it back in the foreseeable future).

  26. Jack Duffin has been selected for UKIP.

  27. Yes, the Tories are doing okay here, despite the growth of the Asian population. Of course we should remember that half of John Randall’s Asian constituents are Indians, who tend to be less anti-Conservative than other ethnic minorities.

    It is also salient to note that this constituency is heavily C1, which I think helps the Conservatives.

  28. Of course, we should also remember that Uxbridge remains relatively white British by London (and indeed NW London) standards- 61% of residents are white British compared with the London average of 45%.

  29. The only areas in London that are more white british are Sutton, Havering, Bexley, Bromley, Richmond and maybe Kingston.

  30. IIRC the Orpington constituency has the highest proportion of white British residents of any constituency falling under the GLA- 85.5%.

  31. White British fell from 60% to 45% between 2001 and 2011, which means that it may be getting close to 40% already if the same trends have been continuing.

  32. This seat has a lot of similarity with Croydon South, ie. demographic changes which have totally revolutionised a neighbouring seat are seeping in, but the Tories seem to be holding up relatively well for the time being.

    I’m sure it’s true that a fair number of non-white voters here support the Tories, as it is most likely true in South Croydon as well.

    Unlike South Croydon however the Lib Dems’ 20% here is not a long standing base of support. Looking at past elections, the Lib Dem vote here could easily halve in 2015. If most of it goes to Labour and the Tories lose votes to UKIP then the result in 2015 could be far closer, 3000-4000 majority is a possibility I feel, but no closer than that.

  33. John Randall has been selected to stand again as the Conservative Candidate in the constituency.

  34. I would question whether this seat has a lot of similarities Croydon South. Firstly, Croydon South is historically much safer for the Conservatives than Uxbridge, where Labour has long been quite competitive at times. Secondly, and relatedly, the Conservative position has not declined by nearly so much in Uxbridge since 1992 as it has in Croydon South (if indeed it has declined at all).

    It is arguable that neighbouring Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner has more in common with Croydon South. As in Croydon South, the Conservatives (would have) polled well over 60% in R,N, and P in 1992 (Mr Whitehead reckons 68%) and as in Croydon South, there has subsequently been a decline. I suppose the difference is that R, N, and P doesn’t appear to have gone downmarket in the way that parts of Croydon South has.

    The Conservatives did reasonably well in this seat in 2012. In the GLA elections, they carried all wards bar Yiewsley.

  35. Here are Pete Whitehead’s projections from the other site.

    GLA Member

    Con 13513 51.1%
    Lab 6187 23.4%
    Grn 1444 5.5%
    LD 2315 8.7%
    UKIP 1489 5.6%
    BNP 1131 4.3%
    NF 391 1.5%

    GLA LIST

    Con 12309 46.5%
    Lab 6846 25.8%
    Grn 1491 5.6%
    LD 1477 5.6%
    UKIP 1853 7.0%
    BNP 1045 3.9%
    CPA 486 1.8%
    Oth 990 3.7%

  36. 2014 results in Uxbridge and South Ruislip

    Con 13312 (41.6%)
    Lab 6903 (21.6%)
    UKIP 6167 (19.3%)
    Green 2601 (8.1%)
    LD 1746 (5.5%)
    TUSC 930 (2.9%)

    The Conservatives carried every ward.

  37. Never thought I’d see the day that TUSC would get 3% in Uxbridge.

  38. Very odd that Labour lost a seat in Yiewsley yet gained one in Uxbridge S which required quite a large swing.

  39. Ah yes, only just spotted the Labour gain in Uxbridge S, Barnaby.

    All in all a solid set of results for the Tories here.

  40. Though I didn’t miss the actual figure so it doesn’t make any difference to my calculation.

  41. Popular votes:

    Con 32,555 (36.03%)
    Lab 25,216 (27.91%)
    UKIP 16,059 (17.77%)
    Green 6,668 (7.38%)
    LD 3,302 (3.65%)
    Ind 2,717 (3.01%)
    TUSC 2,260 (2.50%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -7.43%
    Lab -1.10%
    UKIP +17.30%
    Green +3.97%
    LD -14.08%
    Ind -0.04%
    TUSC +2.50%

  42. John Randall, the MP here, is standing down at the next election: http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/local-news/uxbridge-south-ruislip-mp-john-7400274

    Some are speculating this could be Boris Johnson’s opportunity to Parliament, but I sense many Uxbridge voters and Conservative association members will not be pleased about that at all.

  43. I think they might choose a Hillingdon councillor. If Boris Johnson stands anywhere, I can see it being somewhere like Bromley and Chislehurst or Beckenham, not here I don’t think. I actually made a list of seats a while back on the Henley thread that he might have considered. Here is that list-

    List of seats that Boris Johnson might go for in the future in my opinion-
    1. Bromley and Chislehurst
    2. Beckenham
    3. Orpington
    4. East Surrey
    5. North Thanet
    6. Guildford
    7. Wokingham
    8. North West Hampshire
    9. Sevenoaks
    10. Banbury
    11. Mole Valley
    12. Tonbridge and Malling
    13. Croydon South
    14. Henley
    15. Chelsea and Fulham
    16. Kensington
    17. Old Bexley and Sidcup
    18. Chingford and Woodford Green
    19. Wimbledon
    20. Chipping Barnet
    21. Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
    22. Uxbridge and South Ruislip
    23. Cities of London and Westminster

    Of those, I think possibles for the future for him include Bromley and Chislehurst, Beckenham, Kensington and maybe here. I just have a feeling if he does go back to Westminster, it will indeed be a seat in the Capital.

  44. Boris would have to stand in a London seat given his current role.

    Kensington would be the best seat for Boris. Its posh, rich, in the centre of town, not too right wing and has a certain amount of ‘poor’ in the North.

  45. Yes I agree RE Kensington- I do think that would be the right seat for him. It’s long had prominent MPs in the past, and that is still the case with Sir Malcolm Rifkind today. He would boost the Tories’ vote share there as well I think.

  46. Given that John Randall is such a local figure, it would seem odd to replace him with someone clearly using the place as a springboard to other things.

    That said, The Conservative Leader of Hillingdon Council was on BBC London tonight singing Boris’ praises, so who knows…

  47. I do find it unlikely BJ would be selected here if he expressed an interest, indeed as I said further up hours and hours ago they’d be likely to choose a local councillor instead here. I think if a byelection came up in a safe Tory seat in London during the next Parliament, he would then most likely re-enter Parliament. He may go for a seat next year, but I think he might wait a bit.

  48. BJ has announced his intention to seek election to the House of Commons next year….

    I expect he’ll be selected here.

  49. 2020 could be a very good election year for the Conservatives. They might lose next year by a small majority or there’ll be a Lab/Lib coalition. With Cameron out of the way after 2015, it clears the road for a Boris leadership bid. He’s already popular with the general public and showed that he can win Labour support in London. Maybe a bit more challenging elsewhere in the country though.

  50. I think Boris is perfect for Mayor of London and it is wise for him to seek a seat for the GE next May as he has zero chance of being elected for a third term. The 2016 London mayoralty is Labours to lose, which I doubt they will given the strength of the party in the city.

    I still think Kensington would be the ideal seat for Boris.

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