Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,495 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. “What’s the point in laws that are neither respected nor enforceable?”

    Does this mean you’re pro-weed now?

  2. I am not pro weed or indeed pro using mobile phones whilst driving.

    But I have in the past on here ridiculed similar unenforceable proposals on cannabis use, notably Widdecombe’s march em to the cashpoint brainwave. If Patel resurrects something like that then yes I will criticise it.

  3. The Commencement Order has now been signed (repealing the 1972 European Communities Act), to take effect on 31st Oct.

    As Prof Bogdanor pointed out before the Referendum: legally that is all that is required to leave the EU.

  4. I can see something like that being resurrected.

  5. Sunday Times reporting an early budget and possible October 17th election. Polls good but the brexit party is not collapsing and pre exit day without being forced takes away some of the the likely strength of the people v parliament argument.

  6. Boris seems ready for an election, spending review next week. Is he going to preempt legislative attempts to stop no deal by calling an election?

  7. As unpleasant and arrogant as Johnson clearly is – I never thought he’d go this far

    Like May he’s more than happy to split the country, but more intriguingly, also his party – something she couldn’t even contemplate

  8. Alternative interpretation: Johnson is a man who has always wanted power for its own sake, rather than to advance any particular agenda. In absence of any coherent philosophy or strategy, he has outsourced his programme to Dominic Cummings, who actively wants to see the British political establishment destroyed.

  9. All that has happened is that the sitting days have been reduced from 22 to 18 between now and Oct 31st.

    Although some MPs honestly sound as if they have just discovered Parliament doesn’t sit in August or most of September every year.

  10. Ruth Davidson to quit as Scottish tory leader. Gone down well with her then

  11. And, once again, the unionists’ task has just become a little bit harder.

  12. 2019 GE now an implied 80% probability. An October 2019 GE is 60%.

  13. I wonder, does Boris Johnson want an election?

  14. ‘I wonder, does Boris Johnson want an election’

    In the event of a no deal Brexit – which must now be the most likely eventuality – Johnson’s only real chance of winning an election is holding it before it actually happens, and if you look at where Labour are currently in the polls (their only way is up) it must be tempting for him, despite it being far from certain that he will prevail with a no deal manifesto

  15. So he says he doesnt want one. Might end up getting one anyway.

    Though Laura Kunessberg’s theory is that he secretly wants one but wants to pretend he is being forced into it. I’m not sure I buy that one.

  16. After PMQs it s no doubt now we have the rudest PM ever. Used the word “shit” and named Jeremy Corbyn.Scattergunned various insults.And blatant disengeousness.

    Surely he won’t get a deal (if he’s actually attempting to) so are we heading for essentially No Deal vs Remain…? I don’t think Tories can win on a No Deal platform.

  17. ‘I don’t think Tories can win on a No Deal platform’

    But that’s all they need to do to get the backing of Farage and the Brexit Party, and the only way they can be collectively defeated at the ballot box is for voters of anti No Deal parties to engage in tactical voting on a massive scale

    It can happen but those parties and their leaders need to get their acts together and sadly I fear the evil Cummings – who let;s face it us running the government – can run rings around the likes of Blackford, Swinson & particularly Corbyn

  18. Deepthroat: I couldn’t agree more.

    I still consider myself a liberal, think that capitalism is basically a good thing, am sceptical of state micromanagement of the economy, abhor the conspiracy mindset and am deeply unhappy at the effect the current Labour Party is having on the Jewish community. And yet – turfing out the party of food shortages and benefit sanctions has to be the priority; and in Bedford, that means holding my nose and voting Labour. You must probably have to opposite dilemma – fancy a vote swap?

  19. (Assuming you still live in Richmond of course.)

  20. Tim makes a good point. Irrespective of how unpopular he is, or how ill suited to the job at hand he is, Johnson will win the upcoming election if Brexiteers line up solidly behind him. The Remain vote has fractured, mainly due to Labour’s vacillation on Brexit. As Tim said there would have to be some very sophisticated tactical voting on a huge scale to see any other result frankly.

  21. The wildcard constituencies are those Northern (and some Midlands) towns who have been historically Lab but voted overwhelmingly to Leave. As in 2017, if issues other than Brexit come into play during the campaign, Lab have a chance of holding.on to a few. Scotland is hopeless for both Lab and Con.

  22. ‘After PMQs it s no doubt now we have the rudest PM ever. Used the word “shit” and named Jeremy Corbyn.Scattergunned various insults.And blatant disingenuousness’.

    Well, quite. This is how May lasted for two.and a bit years after her disaster in 2017. Tory MPs were crapping themselves about what would come next. Everything.so far suggests that.they were correct in that assessment.

  23. ‘Tory MPs were crapping themselves about what would come next.’

    But then almost half of them voted for Johnson right from the off

    the worst are the likes of Rudd, Morgan and Hancock, who have spent the last two years articulating all the arguments why a Johnson Premiership would be so terrible, only to completely change their tune once Johnson gave them the opportunity to earn more money

    With people like them is it any wonder why so many see all politicians as complete and utter scumbags

  24. Tim J is spot on in both posts.

    Personally, I thought it was being overplayed – the Lab MPs worried in Leave seats – but in recent days I have heard from colleagues that a few genuinely are if a GE is held this year.

    It isn’t just that eg 67% voted Leave in some of these seats, it’s that in eg Burnley a majority voted for the Brexit Party this year in the Euros and twice the number did so than voted Labour in Wigan.

    Usually I’d think BXP would harm the Tories – as the polls have shown – but a Boris/Farage non-aggression pact or leaving aside many seats to target Lab MPs would be a worry for maybe a dozen or two Labour MPs in Stoke/Walsall/Hartlepool etc.

    BXP do seem to be leaving it upto local Parties such as they are eg yesterday the BXP PPCs stood down in Southport and Wirral to back the Tory MP/PPC.

    What Farage does could be crucial in say 50 seats. I imagine Boris or Cummings is prepared to sacrifice a Cheadle for the sake of a Crewe & Weaver Vale or 2 seats which have always been Lab in the North West. But it’s a risky strategy.

  25. ‘But it’s a risky strategy.’

    Very risky as if the anti No Deal parties get their act together they can get Johnson out of office permanently, making him arguably the most unsuccessful PM ever

    That must be motivation enough and there has been evidence – most notably in 97 – that the electorate aren’t as unsophisticated as some people think when it comes to such things and I would have thought the bulk of those rushing to register to vote are motivated primarily by a desire to stop Brexit

    Also, I personally think Labour stand a good chance of unseating Johnson if he does end up standing in his west London constituency

    Of course a split in the opposition vote could hand Johnson a 100+ majority – giving him and Cummings the chance to damage the Uk on a permanent basis

    Stakes have never been higher

  26. Both the Yorkshire Post and LEP have polls showing Tory gains across the North of England.

    The YP lists 18 seats (everywhere from Bishop A & G Grimsby to Rother Valley, Bury, Blackpool etc).

  27. Source?

  28. Google or Yorkshire Post ‘Tories would make big gains…’ being the obvious answer.

    BBC North West Tonight also had voxpops in Weaver Vale and Crewe showing Labour voters who said they’d vote Tory for the first time. Labour activists said they didn’t want an election now.

  29. ‘BBC North West Tonight also had voxpops in Weaver Vale and Crewe showing Labour voters who said they’d vote Tory for the first time. Labour activists said they didn’t want an election now.’

    But we heard that in 2017 as the election started. Remember Slough’s Labour voters in a vox pop who claimed they were all going to vote Tory. Remind me again what happened in Slough on election day. Then there was the poll in Wales. Loads of Lanour supporting men in Hull breathlessly admiring Teresa May…

  30. ‘But we heard that in 2017 as the election started. Remember Slough’s Labour voters in a vox pop who claimed they were all going to vote Tory.’

    Whilst Corbyn undeniably ran a good campaign in 2017, the main reason the result went the way they did was because Theresa May had such a horrendously bad one

    Despite yesterday’s miss-steps, Johnson in contrast is a pretty good campaigner, as he showcased by winning 2 elections in left-leaning London

    Johnson should be eminently beatable but it seems a little naaive to assume that what happened in 2017 will happen again if we have an election soon

  31. CH – we did because it happened. Tories achieved 44% and gained many seats for the first time in some of the very places shown I mentioned (Southport, Mansfield, Stoke, Walsall, Middlesbrough).

    Indeed on here on Polling Day, I had LDs telling me I was wrong in Southport [where I know live] and that they were going to win. They came a poor third!

    In the same way I said there’d be Labour losses to all Parties and Tory gains would happen in the NW in the locals and they did in Wirral, Bolton, etc this May.

    I wasn’t being partisan. I was simply pointing out that I fully expect what we have seen to continue, ie Labour gaining a seat in the South and the Tories gaining in the North. The last time I have heard Labour voters unprompted [whilst I’m a journalist I don’t cover politics in my day job] say they were going to vote Tory was in 2005 when there was a 10% swing from Lab to Cons amongst DE voters. As Thrasher pointed out for every Kensington [a seat that’s always been Tory that could go Lab] there are 4 Stoke-type seats.

    Tim J is spot on in that some switched/voted/didn’t vote because Corbyn stood no chance. If he has a real prospect of becoming PM, voters will turn out.

  32. Can anyone here understand how the govt will leave the EU on or before 31 October – but also comply with Benn Act…?

  33. Presumably because the Act only mandates a request and not an acceptance of any offer.

    Schoolboy error (contract law) for the son of the great Tony.

    Incidentally, the first 2 polls show over 60% of the public just want it done.

    On a local level, judges are despised by the public (for not jailing paedos on occasion etc), so the win by the Gina/SNP/Major conglomerate if anything seems to have harmed their cause with the public.

    But then I’m sure HH is embarrassed by those donning EU flag hats and screaming. Of the 48%, only perhaps 10 or 20% of the public are ardent Remainers/revokers which is presumably why the LDs are happy to lose their Leave voters in Portsmouth etc. [The BBC yesterday showed Portsmouth & Staffs and that was the case in both areas]

  34. Ty. ‘re yr first point above.

    Surely Benn/Grieve etc are now working with Opp parties to pass a new Act? Better written.

  35. Boris has said he will not request an extension

  36. Thing is, even the Brexit hardcore don’t believe him on this. The ERG has seemingly resigned itself to not leaving on October 31st, as has the Brexit Party.

    Falling into the Theresa May pattern if compromises that satisfy nobody.

  37. ‘Thing is, even the Brexit hardcore don’t believe him on this. The ERG has seemingly resigned itself to not leaving on October 31st’

    i don’t get that impression at all

    Johnson and Cummings seem to have capitulated to the ERG, hence the reason they have gone out of their way to avoid getting a deal

    They seem to have concluded that the ERG were right all along – just haven;’t got the decency to admit that to the electorate, a ever bigger proportion of whom seem to want that anyhow

  38. Yes, Boris may have “capitulated” to the ERG (though even that choice of word implies that he tried to bargain with them, which he didn’t) but the ERG don’t trust what he says anyway. Their betrayal paranoia has reached neurotic levels.

  39. ‘the ERG don’t trust what he says anyway’

    I don’t see that

    Being of fairly low intelligence most of them seem to see Boris as the messiah personified – a man as determined as they are for the costliest and most damaging Brexit available – no deal/clean break

    About 99% of them voted for him and even if they did doubt I’m sure his insults and quite frankly vile things he’s said to his opponents this week has got them fully on-side

    And they are cheering him on all the way

  40. Richard Drax asked Boris yesterday if he promised the deal brought back would be nothing like Mays Deal which sounds like an excuse to me not to vote for Boris Deal

  41. The recent ‘Tories At War’ docu is the first time cameras have been allowed into the ERG.

    Far from of ‘low intelligence’, the meeting was addressed by a Professor and then a QC.

    The person who came across worst IMHO was Alan Duncan. It was filmed over 3 months and during it he contradicted himself several times ie pre and post a Boris leadership win.

  42. Some ERGers are stupid. Some are very smart.

    In general, you often see very smart people having the same bad opinions as stupid people (compare, for example, the American alt-right, and the Intellectual Dark Web made up of people like Jordan Peterson). There is a phenomenon of geniuses adopting and trying to justify controversial or even plain bad opinions, largely as a way of signalling that they are smarter than those people who are only quite smart and adhere to received wisdom.

  43. Whilst they don’t vote en bloc, the ERG members at a Bruges Group fringe event in Manchester yesterday appeared open to vote for a deal.

    They ranged from the DUP (Arlene Foster was present) to Andrew Rosindell MP et al.

    I assume Raab will answer PMQs, as Boris’ speech timing hasn’t been changed (unlike Corbyn’s).

  44. The betting appears to be that the vote will be won or lost by fewer than 5 votes.

    I am hearing of a few new Labour names who are considering voting for the deal, however.

    Personally, I think it’ll pass (just), ie 310 to 305.

  45. https://t.co/GND1dAOPla?amp=1

    This spread shows a tie

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