Uxbridge & Ruislip South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22511 (50.4%)
Labour: 11816 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 2215 (5%)
Green: 1414 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6346 (14.2%)
TUSC: 180 (0.4%)
Loony: 72 (0.2%)
Independent: 14 (0%)
Others: 120 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10695 (23.9%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of Hillingdon council area.

Main population centres: Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley, Yiewsley, South Ruislip.

Profile: A suburban seat on the fringe of west London, this covers Uxbridge, Hillingdon, Cowley and Yiewsley and then, north of Northolt Aerodrome which runs down the middle of the seat, South Ruislip.This is middle-of-the-road suburbia, hidden away at the end at the far end of the Metropolitan line.

Politics: A relatively safe Conservative seat, it has seen held by the Conservatives since 1970 but not always by large majorities. In 1997 this became the first by-election hold for the Conservatives for 18 years when John Randall was returned following the death of Michael Shersby, the first time the Tories had held a seat at a by-election since William Hague held Richmond in 1989. Since 2015 it has been the new seat of Boris Johnson, elected MP while still serving as London Mayor.


Current MP
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former journalist, author and editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. First elected as MP for Uxbridge & Ruislip South in 2015. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21758 (48%)
Lab: 10542 (23%)
LDem: 8995 (20%)
BNP: 1396 (3%)
Oth: 2385 (5%)
MAJ: 11216 (25%)
2005*
Con: 16840 (49%)
Lab: 10669 (31%)
LDem: 4544 (13%)
BNP: 763 (2%)
Oth: 1562 (5%)
MAJ: 6171 (18%)
2001
Con: 15751 (47%)
Lab: 13653 (41%)
LDem: 3426 (10%)
UKIP: 588 (2%)
MAJ: 2098 (6%)
1997
Con: 18095 (44%)
Lab: 17371 (42%)
LDem: 4528 (11%)
Oth: 398 (1%)
MAJ: 724 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Uxbridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BORIS JOHNSON (Conservative) Born 1964, New York, son of former MEP Stanley Johnson. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Journalist and author, former editor of the Spectator. MP for Henley 2001-2008, Mayor of London since 2008. Shadow higher education minister 2005-2007. Instantly recognisable by his dishevelled appearance, blond thatch of hair and bumbling public-schoolboy mannerisms, Boris Johnson has become a media celebrity through appearances on Have I Got News For You and a tendency to make gaffes. His first period as an MP saw a brief shadow ministerial career cut short by denials of an affair that turned out to be true and he resigned from Parliament to become Mayor of London. In 2014 he announced he would seek to return to Parliament with the barely disguised ambition to stand as the next party leader.
CHRIS SUMMERS (Labour) BBC journalist. Ealing councillor since 2010.
MICHAEL COX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Salesian Missionary College and Brunel University. Chartered accountant. Hillingdon councillor 2002-2010. Contested Ruislip Northwood 2001, 2005, Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2010.
JACK DUFFIN (UKIP) Educated at Stratton Upper School and Brunel University. student.
GRAHAM LEE (Green)
SABRINA MOOSUN (Communities United)
JENNY THOMPSON (Independent)
MICHAEL DOHERTY (Independent)
LORD TOBY JUG (Eccentric Party of GB) Musician. Contested West Ham 1992, 1997, Folkstone and Hythe 2005, Huntingdon 2010.
JANE LAWRENCE (Realists)
JAMES JACKSON (No description) Retired auditor.
GARY HARBORD (TUSC)
HOWLING LAUD HOPE (Loony) Born 1942, Mytchett, real name Alan Hope. Publican. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury 1999, Kensington and Chelsea 1999, Brent East 2003, Hartlepool 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent 2006, Sedgefield 2007, Norwich North 2009, Witney 2010, Barnsley Central 2011, Bradford West 2012, Manchester Central 2012, Eastleigh 2013, South Shields 2013, Clacton 2014.
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Comments - 1,191 Responses on “Uxbridge & Ruislip South”
  1. I miss the days of The Times not being behind a paywall πŸ™

  2. Bush strikes me as somebody who really knows his stuff. The Left need people like that in today’s world

  3. The real Joe James B

    Good to see Boris attacking PC squeamishness here:

    ‘We don’t know what was going through the head of the young killer as he came up behind Jodie Chesney, 17, in a park in East London on Friday night.

    We don’t know why he stabbed her in the back. It is not clear whether he even knew who the talented and popular student from Havering Sixth Form College was.

    It may have been a case of mistaken identity, or he simply may not have cared.

    There are some who think the murder was a barbaric gang-inspired initiation ritual.

    Beyond the barest details, I am afraid we do not yet know what he looked like, let alone who he was or where he came from. But there is one thing I can tell you about him with absolute certainty.

    He thought he could get away with it. He thought he could carry a knife in a public place β€” with murderous intent β€” and that there was nothing the rest of us could do.

    That is the arrogance feeding the knife crime epidemic.

    That is the contemptuous mindset we must change.

    We need to take that killer’s complacent assumptions about the risk he runs by carrying a knife, and turn those calculations upside down.

    We need to come down so hard on kids who carry knives, and above all on gang leaders, that they no longer regard having a knife as cool. We need to flip the switch in their heads so that they stop thinking of it as macho or daring.

    We need them to understand that to carry a killer knife is a sign of sheer bone-headed stupidity; not just because they are endangering themselves as well as others, but also because they might end up in jail.

    That is the way to fix knife crime β€” and we have done it before.

    Yesterday’s Mail front page, carrying the photos of Jodie and 26 other teenagers who have been stabbed to death over the past 12 months, was heart-rending.

    I know from experience that all sorts of explanations will be offered for the current plague, and all sorts of solutions.

    Some criminologists will talk of postcode wars between drugs gangs. Some will blame deep problems in society: family breakdown, the absence of male role models, and so on.

    It is often argued that gang culture gives kids a pseudo-familial structure in which they will find things they crave: authority, boundaries, respect, self-esteem and, yes, love.

    All these points have strength β€” some more than others β€” and yet they do not fully explain the contagion of knife crime across the UK.

    It is true that we need all kinds of interventions to help get these kids’ lives back on track, and to deter them from getting involved with gangs.

    But if we simply address this epidemic like sociologists or outreach workers, we will not solve the problem and we will not be truly helping these kids. We also need to be tough.

    I know this because, 11 or 12 years ago, our capital city was in the grip of an almost identical epidemic. People were horrified at the loss of young life and the violence they could see on their street corners.

    I contested the 2008 mayoral election on a simple pledge: to get knife crime down.

    I have to tell you that for the first six months β€” perhaps longer β€” I thought we would fail. It was an utterly hellish time. I would lie awake praying that the following day would not see another stabbing.

    Week after week the toll would mount. We tried everything the experts recommended.

    We held endless conferences in City Hall. We had mentoring schemes; we boosted apprenticeships; we tried to cut recidivism for young offenders with a special wing at Feltham Young Offenders Institution.

    We funded all manner of youth groups and projects that claimed β€” some more plausibly than others β€” to be able to divert kids from gangs.

    I am not saying that this campaign was pointless. Far from it. To tackle the temptation to join gangs, it is vital that young people can see a better path for their lives.

    But there was also one thing we did that I think helped to reduce the stabbings.

    We substantially changed the calculation of risk in the mind of any kid setting out from home with a knife.

    We launched Operation Blunt Two β€” a massive programme of stop and search. In its first year, this took about 10,000 knives off the streets.

    Naturally there were protests from pressure groups. Some suggested that stop and search was discriminatory and heavy-handed. We ignored these voices. It worked.

    Knife crime began to fall. Serious violence fell dramatically. By the end of my eight-year term, we had cut the London murder rate by 50 per cent and radically reduced the number of teenage stab victims.

    For year after year β€” and this is one of the few crime statistics you really cannot fudge β€” we had fewer than 100 murders in a city of almost nine million.

    It is sad to see these numbers have climbed back up so far. The figures this year are grim.

    That does not mean London is now more dangerous than New York (far from it), and I am sure we can collectively beat the problem again.

    But it needs energy, and grip β€” neither of which seems to emanate from City Hall at present β€” and someone who is willing to take on the politically correct squeamishness surrounding stop and search.

    It turned out to be a very grave mistake to tell the police to reduce stop and search in 2014. These searches are an essential tool of big-city crime fighting.

    Of course, they must be done sensitively, and in accordance with the law. But if and when our generally superb police officers have reason to suspect someone is carrying a bladed weapon, they must feel free to stop and search that person.

    And in so doing β€” knowing their actions may be resented β€” they must feel that the system will back them up. They must believe the politicians are 1,000 per cent behind them.

    That is the message the police need to hear now, from the very top.

    Yes, it is important to have enough officers on the street, and we made a point of keeping London numbers at or near 32,000.

    But it is also a question of what you empower those police to do; what encouragement and what lead you give them.

    And if they feel they have no β€˜top cover’ β€” no real political lead β€” then they will not perform the job of stop and search with the same sense of determination.

    There was no doubt that by far the most frequently searched group were young black males. Yet the biggest supporters of stop and search were their own parents, who could see that carrying a knife was disastrous and life-threatening for the kids themselves.

    I would not for a moment claim that stop and search is the panacea. As Home Secretary Sajid Javid has said, it is not the only solution. But it is a vital part of the mix.

    Now is the time to step it up β€” responsibly but vigorously.

    I met Jodie Chesney in March 2016. Then aged 14, she was in the Girl Guides and went on to become an ambassador for the Scout Movement.

    With so much before her, it is utterly senseless that her life has been cut short.

    For her sake, and for the sake of all those whose lives are blighted by knife crime, we need to change the odds in the minds of kids who carry knives. And we can.’

  4. Stop and Search doesnt really deal with the issue of people thinking they will be attacked and killed if they dont have a knife. You not going to know if your rivial gang member or someone else is going to be put off by it.

  5. OK I’ll take the bait again-

    “I contested the 2008 mayoral election on a simple pledge: to get knife crime down.”

    Actually I recall Boris’s main campaign pledge was to abolish the western extension of the congestion charge (conveniently ignored by the Tories in today’s greener political climate), and to scrap bendy buses with years of life left in them and replace them with obscenely expensive white elephant replica Routemasters. I recall barely a word being said on knife crime. Boris rewriting history again.

    I distrust those claiming there are simple solutions to these kinds of complex problems and Boris himself has massive form on that, whilst proving himself totally incompetent and gaffe prone in high office. Without claiming to be any kind of expert, I’d note the following-

    – Brexit utterly dominating the government’s attention and resources this past 3 years is surely a factor (and one for which Boris himself carries a lot of the blame)

    – The Prime Minister claiming that resources and police numbers do not correlate with rising crime insults the intelligence of the electorate. Sure it’s not the only factor but it is an important one.

    – Let the police on the ground decide on stop and search and other policing tactics rather than have them kicked around as political footballs.

    – Increased focus of scarce police resources on terrorism, sex offences and policing of tweets etc is surely also a factor.

  6. Boris interview tonight has been picked up mostly as he seems to have had yet another hair cut – which is seen as a sign he is running a leadership bid (same reason this article was a freelance one in the Mail rather than Telegraph.)

  7. It reminds me a bit of the stupid haircut George Osborne got and which was meant to give him ‘gravitas’.

    But didn’t.

  8. I really love this poster, irrespective of its aim.

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1103602298981441536/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalbetting.vanillacommunity.com%2Fdiscussion%2F7394%2Fpoliticalbetting-com-blog-archive-hobson-s-choice-the-issues-facing-the-labour-movement

    5-6 rows from the back, one of the faces looks very like Eric Forth MP, who died 13 years ago and so despite his ultra euroscepticism can’t really be blamed for Brexit chaos.

  9. “one of the faces looks very like Eric Forth MP”

    Actually when you zoom in it’s clearly Graham Stringer.

    Strangely I can’t see Corbyn on there, which is a bit of a travesty.

  10. Though if you’re trying to win over Labour voters attacking the leader won’t help.

    I see Nick Timothy is on there. Rather odd as almost no one kniws who he is

  11. ‘Police numbers do not correlate with rising crime’ is actually true (but I agree that it’s not a wise thing for a PM to utter).

    It tends to be cyclical and irrespective of the numbers of police.

    Although if you mean PCs – the numbers have remained broadly similar over the past 50 years. What did change was that police ceased policing/patrolling areas and instead simply rushed to the scene of crimes after the event. As a relative who recently retired as a middle ranking officer said: we only catch more now ‘cos of CCTV and forensics.

    Although a few forces are making innovative changes, such as having non-officers investigate or deal with admin (because you don’t need the power of arrest if you spend your time on a laptop or visiting experts or victims/families).

    Indeed I understand the force with the best clear up % rate for homicide is the one which was the first to have non-officers investigating. They’re often retired officers or criminologists who dedicate their time solely to the case(s).

    A lot of time is spent by officers policing football, marches and festivals.

  12. Arguing about causality misses the point. If you cut police numbers, that may not directly lead to a rise in crime, but it leaves the people you were elected to protect more vulnerable if it happens.

    Blowing all my savings on frivolities will not cause me to lose my job. That does not make it a good idea because I may lose my job for some other reason, and if I did I’d need those savings.

  13. It isn’t a direct comparison at all (unless by frivolities you mean pc PCs with degrees attending Pride marches in rainbow cars). But seriously, it’s more like your savings have been locked in a notice account you can’t touch because x says you have to do so for x years.

    As with the DWP, in fact we’ve spent more and more in almost every year since WWII.

    Yes restrictions have been put in place, but there are in fact 29 benefits today compared with 6 post war.

    But your point would be true if ‘say’ the riots or terrorists attacks occurred and the officers weren’t there to call on from their leave.

    A lack of experience harms detection/clear up rates though, so eg the ‘best’ place for a murderer to commit his crimes is N Wales or the Highlands.

  14. A lag [in timeline not the colloquial term for a crim] effect was proven to exist in both economics and crime.

    So eg the Blair govt was grateful for Ken Clarke’s cuts and spending plans and also Michael Howard’s tough sentencing regime.

    Although in fact the latter was less of a causal link (other than the obvious that if the top 1000 repeat offenders are off the streets they can’t commit crimes whilst they are inside at least).

    Most of the reduction in car crime was due to improvements in technology and security. That’s now being repeated with burglaries – not sure if any of you have seen the new ‘rock’ doors?

    Although I imagine that may cause problems as I’m told police can’t break those doors in either!

  15. Boris Johnson endorses No deal in the commons. Feels an important moment.

  16. The Conservative Party may have to face both a leadership contest, and a general election, sooner than they are ready for. I know he is universally reviled on this forum, but I suspect his chances of winning a general election as Tory leader would be better than most of the commentariat would give him credit for.

  17. That’s mad

  18. I agree. Boris still remains popular amoung most Tory inclined voters and those who support Brexit.

  19. Yes. He is clearly aiming for the 117 Tories that voted no confidence in May to guarentee him a spot in the final 2

  20. Boris Johnson has made some interesting remarks on historic child abuse inquires. These are issues where him using his usual way with language just comes across as insensitive and not aware of sensitivity of certain issue. The Point itself is not as controversial as the trivial words he used.

  21. “He is clearly aiming for the 117 Tories that voted no confidence in May to guarentee him a spot in the final 2”

    The next leader of the Tory party will likely not be from the 75 MPs who voted against the deal yesterday. The 240 or so loyalists will conspire to freeze them out of the final two (this includes the 70-80 leavers who backed the deal yesterday). If May quits in the near future there may even need to be a coronation if we are in the midst of Brexit crisis, in which case a safe pair of hands like Hammond might take over for a short time prior to a proper contest in the future.

  22. “Boris Johnson has made some interesting remarks on historic child abuse inquires. These are issues where him using his usual way with language just comes across as insensitive and not aware of sensitivity of certain issue. The Point itself is not as controversial as the trivial words he used.”

    Until the fairly recent past, low-level “abuse” was institutionalised in the public school system and hence many ex-public schoolboys like Boris grew up with it and seem to have a “what all the fuss is about” attitude.

    IMO this issue may also prevent Geoffrey Cox from ever becoming leader. See Guido’s reports of his comments when defending a headmaster about 20 years ago.

  23. Javid or Hunt might also be acceptable for a coronation.

    Usual thinking would assume that would happen but who knows with Tory mp’s voting on a new leader.

  24. IMO only a caretaker leader like Howard would be acceptable for a coronation. More long term leadership contenders would have to wait a year or two for a proper contest.

    I don’t see Hunt’s chance of becoming leader at all. Javid has pursued his opportunism much more effectively than Hunt has. I think Javid would stand a fair chance of holding onto the broad coalition of Tory voters, Hunt is too oily and has too much toxic baggage on the NHS.

  25. The Ultimate opportunist seems to be Nicky Morgan who was rallying against the dangers of no deal but now says it has to remain on the table.

  26. I don’t think she’s particularly opportunist. No deal can’t be taken off the table by a parliamentary vote, at least she’s being honest about that.

  27. Tbf alot of her decision recently have been a nit out of step with her previous statements

  28. I have no idea what Nicky Morgan is doing. Maybe she’s trying to head of a deselection attempt?

  29. Hunt’s approach to becoming leader has merely showcased what a political lightweight he really is

    His rightward drift looks insincere, faintly ridiculous and will fool no one – certainly not those on the Right who will always see him as the Cameroon Conservative he really is

    All he’s done is lost support from moderates who might have otherwise backed him

  30. He’s a Yes man nothing more

  31. All Voters view that they would be a good leader to replace May. (You Gov)
    25% Boris Johnson
    20% Sajid Javid
    19% Jacob Rees-Moog
    16 % David Davis
    16% Amber Rudd
    14% Micheal Gove
    14% Jeremy Hunt
    11% Dominic Raab.

    Tory Voters view of a good leader
    41% Boris Johnson
    28% Micheal Gove
    27% Jacob Rees – Moog
    26% David Davis
    25% Sajid Javid
    24% Jeremy Hunt

    Prefered successor – Tory Votes
    22% Boris Johnson
    13% Jacob Rees-Moog
    8% Micheal Gove
    7% Sajid Javid
    4% Dominic Raab

  32. Polls of Tory voters – even Tory members – are pointless at this stage. Enough Tory MPs dislike Boris to prevent him ever getting into a members vote. If there is a members vote that is – a caretaker is a big possibility if May resigns amid chaos.

  33. β€œIf Theresa May were to stand down as leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minister, which of the following do you think would make the best leader and Prime Minister? ”

    None of them 40%
    Don’t Know 32%
    Boris Johnson 13%
    Sajid Javid 5%
    Jeremy Hunt 3%
    Dominic Raaab 2%
    Andrea Leadsom 2%
    Ester McVey 1%
    Matt Hancock 0%”

    from YouGov/PV fieldwork 15 Mar 2019.

  34. It was interesting seeing Dominic Grieve up alongside Andrea Jenkins on last night’s Newsnight

    They really do highlight the 2 different tribes of today’s Tory Party and how different they are

    One of them thoroughly establishment, measured, highly intelligent, if a little unworldly, with the other being populist, in your face, all over the place on policy, and coming across as pretty uneducated

    Unfortunately for Grieve, and I think the Tories generally, he’s likely to find himself increasingly outnumbered by the Jenkins’in today’s Party

  35. Tim: much as I wish it were otherwise, Andrea Jenkyns is a greater electoral asset to the Conservative Party than Dominic Grieve.

    Most people are idiots. Most people also want to vote people who are like themselves (because they are idiots with no imagination). That is why people will continue to vote for idiots, and why Boris Johnson spent a decade pretending to be one.

  36. ‘Tim: much as I wish it were otherwise, Andrea Jenkyns is a greater electoral asset to the Conservative Party than Dominic Grieve.’

    At the moment she probably is – certainly but – but once Brexit becomes reality – those arguing for the hardest possible exit – like Jenkins – will be seen for the simpletons they are – and the likes of Grieve, whi championed caution, will come much more in vogue

  37. ‘Most people are idiots. Most people also want to vote people who are like themselves (because they are idiots with no imagination). That is why people will continue to vote for idiots, and why Boris Johnson spent a decade pretending to be one’.

    Polltroll, you once referred to me as an ‘omni hating cynic’; I wholeheatedly agreed with you haha and was actually kind of flattered. Even I think.the above is strong stuff. Remember it kind of suits the powers that be to keep a good portion of the population ignorant and easily swayed. Not too terrifyingly stupid mind- need to get them out of the house of a morning to get to work.

    And yes Andrea Jenkyns is a grade A moron.

  38. At the weekend they were reports that Priti Patel would be Boris Johnson running mate. That would be an interesting ticket.

  39. I’m not sure it does suit the establishment quite as much as you suggest, unless you take the binary view that all of politics is a zero-sum game played out between the noble people and the corrupt elites. People often vote for lose-lose ideas that don’t suit anybody (to take an example at random, the populist Italian government recently made vaccination programmes non-compulsory – I don’t see how that benefits the 1%, it’s just moronic).

  40. If iIalian anti Vacine people are like british ones they probably lean towards being members of the middle class anyway.

  41. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47854338

    I’m shocked. It’s so totally out of character for a pillar of integrity like him.

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