UKIP Target Seats

These are the fifty seats with the lowest percentage majorities over UKIP. This does not necessarily mean they would be the most winnable seats for the UKIPO in practice, or that they are the seats UKIP will actually be targetting at the next general election.

1. Thurrock Majority 536 (1.1%)*
2. South Thanet Majority 2812 (5.7%)
3. Hartlepool Majority 3024 (7.6%)
4. Boston & Skegness Majority 4336 (10%)
5. Heywood & Middleton Majority 5299 (10.9%)
6. Dagenham & Rainham Majority 4980 (11.6%)
7. Rochester & Strood Majority 7133 (13.6%)
8. Southport Majority 1322 (3%)*
9. Mansfield Majority 5315 (11.2%)*
10. Great Grimsby Majority 4540 (13.5%)*
11. Stoke-on-Trent North Majority 4836 (12.5%)*
12. Rother Valley Majority 7297 (15.5%)
13. Plymouth Moor View Majority 1026 (2.4%)*
14. Ynys Mon Majority 229 (0.6%)*
15. Stoke-on-Trent Central Majority 5179 (16.6%)
16. South Basildon & East Thurrock Majority 7691 (16.9%)
17. Walsall North Majority 1937 (5.2%)*
18. Dudley North Majority 4181 (11%)*
19. Stoke-on-Trent South Majority 2539 (6.5%)*
20. Penistone & Stocksbridge Majority 6723 (14.3%)*
21. Bradford South Majority 6450 (17.1%)*
22. Isle of Wight Majority 13703 (19.5%)
23. Ashfield Majority 8820 (18.6%)*
24. Castle Point Majority 8934 (19.7%)
25. Great Yarmouth Majority 6154 (13.8%)*
26. Carshalton & Wallington Majority 1510 (3.2%)*
27. Oldham East & Saddleworth Majority 6002 (13.5%)*
28. Burnley Majority 3244 (8.1%)*
29. Hyndburn Majority 4400 (10.2%)*
30. Portsmouth South Majority 5241 (12.5%)*
31. Newcastle-under-Lyme Majority 650 (1.5%)*
32. Clwyd South Majority 2402 (6.8%)*
33. Telford Majority 730 (1.8%)*
34. Wrexham Majority 1831 (5.6%)*
35. Bristol South Majority 7128 (14.1%)*
36. Wakefield Majority 2613 (6.1%)*
37. West Bromwich West Majority 7742 (22.1%)
38. Derby North Majority 41 (0.1%)*
39. Bridgend Majority 1927 (4.9%)*
40. North Norfolk Majority 4043 (8.2%)*
41. Rotherham Majority 8446 (22.3%)
42. Newport East Majority 4705 (13.4%)*
43. Alyn & Deeside Majority 3343 (8.1%)*
44. Morley & Outwood Majority 422 (0.9%)*
45. Workington Majority 4686 (12.2%)*
46. Don Valley Majority 8885 (20.9%)*
47. Dover Majority 6294 (12.6%)*
48. Northampton South Majority 3793 (9.8%)*
49. North Thanet Majority 10948 (23.3%)
50. St Austell & Newquay Majority 8173 (16.2%)*

*UKIP currently in third place or below

Comments - 16 Responses on “UKIP Targets”
  1. YouGov tonight show their highest ever figure for UKIP:

    LAB 33 (-1)
    CON 30 (-1)
    UKIP 20 (+3)
    LD 6 (-2)
    GRN 3 (-)

    Narrative is still that UKIP are struggling at the moment. This hasn’t really been borne out by polls. Really I think it is more the case that they’ve ceased to be new and exciting from a news perspective, and so are getting less press. They may be ‘the story’ again after the locals, where they should pick up a fair number of seats, on these figures.

    In recent polls, including London and Wales polls, YG are also showing a fairly significant CON-LAB swing that most other pollsters aren’t picking up.

  2. UKIP polled just 3.8% at the 2012 local elections. If they get around 20% this year that should, in theory, lead to rather a large number of gains.

  3. Their candidate numbers are patchy. They’ve got nowhere near a full slate here in Sheffield.

  4. It’s pretty obvious why UKIP are riding high in the polls at the moment. The Tories and Labour are both locked in civil war, and the protest vote doesn’t have much elsewhere to go.

    The absence of reporting on UKIP has probably done them some good actually. They’ve got their own infighting (Suzanne Evans, anyone?) but it just hasn’t registered with the public.

  5. I doubt they are on 20% – AW has said he’s suspicious of the figure on the main site – but even if they get the 12.7% they got at the GE they’ll probably make quite a number of gains and be the story if, as I expect, this round of locals produce see few seats change hands btwn LAB and CON and few changes of control.

  6. I think that when the UK narrowly votes to remain there will be a big surge to UKIP on a similar scale to the disappointed 45% of the Scottish electorate flocking to the SNP.

    The difference is that UKIP would have to sustain their level of support over 4 years till the general election while the SNP only needed to sustain their boost over 8 months.

  7. I think there’s likely to be a surge for UKIP post-referendum, but I think it’s also likely to be both smaller and less enduring than the shift to the SNP, for a few reasons. Firstly, there is clearly still a home for pro-Leave people in the Tory party. I mean you can be a Cabinet minister and want Britain to leave the EU. Secondly, the SNP made very sure that it was a good fit for most pro-independence voters on other issues. It sits squarely in the middle of the pro-independence voting population. UKIP is still well off to the right of many Leave voters. Thirdly, membership of the EU is just less important to most voters than Scottish independence. Nobody’s seriously predicting a turnout of around 85% for the EU referendum. So, I think there will be a surge in UKIP support, but I think a lot of it will be temporary when we get back to politics as usual.

  8. Steven Woolfe is off the ballot. He’s responded angrily and has lots of grassroots support, and also support from the Farage camp. Raises possibility of a UKIP split before Labour do…

    As for the leadership Diane James is the only semi-well known candidate left and so will be anointed favourite by the media. But I’d watch to see where, if anywhere, Woolfe’s grassroots/social media support goes. It may not necessarily be to James.

  9. FWIW I tentatively think that UKIP are largely finished as a semi major electoral force. UKIP’s problem was it was never going to be a mass party, too much of the country outright hate them, it had to stick with its niche of the super patriotic which means they probably had a ceiling at about 20% However by electing someone like Diane James to try and appeal to a wider audience they’ll probably lose the support of their core voters who were drawn to UKIP precisely because they were not like the other parties (Farage’s pint waving antics spring to mind)

    As things are I believe the question is have UKIP achieved the critical mass required to sustain itself on brand recognition alone? Despite being labelled an irrelevance the Lib Dems probably did between 97-10 and this is probably what saved them from total obliteration and is why they remain on 7-10% and it seems impossible for them to fall lower nationally

    Have UKIP achieved this though in the last few years? In my opinion the answer is less important to UKIP’s future as it is to the other parties. If UKIP totally implodes back to pre 2011-12 levels then that probably benefits both Lab and Con roughly equally (with obvious geographical variances) If UKIP manage to cling on though due to brand recognition alone that will definitely disproportionately hurt Labour. With engaged Libertarian ultra Conservatives peeling away back to the Tories while the WWC in former industrial areas and seaside towns stick with UKIP as the main anti immigration or “sod you all” option.

  10. ‘If UKIP totally implodes back to pre 2011-12 levels then that probably benefits both Lab and Con roughly equally (with obvious geographical variances)’

    Logic would suggest that the biggest beneficiaries ought to be the Lib Dems as it’s they who used to gain the votes of people who wanted something different – and they who have seen their vote plummet as UKIPs has risen over the past 5-6 years

    Having said that it’s almost impossible to see someone who voted for a party that wanted to leave the EU, put strict limits on immigration, and do everything they can to limit the movement of people within the EU, voting for a party that proposes precisely the opposite

    And I can help thinking that Steven Woolfe’s appalling treatment by his own party has everything to do with this Black and Jewish heritage

  11. To be honest with you I know a couple of UKIP voters who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and the real question is why vote for a pro eu, pro immigration, anti referendum party and then vote UKIP. That doesn’t make sense to me a leader who has both black and Jewish heritage surely is the best candidate for UKIP. What’s more diverse and not anti-semetic than a leader who has black and Jewish family

  12. ‘a leader who has both black and Jewish heritage surely is the best candidate for UKIP. What’s more diverse and not anti-semetic than a leader who has black and Jewish family’

    But if UKIP do elect someone like that will they automatically lose the, they would say minority, of openly racist people who vote for them?

    Such people will never vote for a non-white candidate, so the question is how prominent such people are in UKIP as a whole, and the decision of their party’s ruling body not to allow Mr Woolfe to run suggests they are quite prominent indeed

    Personally I don’t any of the candidates will struggle to match the appeal of the jovial Mr Farage – whose biggest asset was being able to make UKIP look like something other than the largely bigotted and mean-minded party its opponents regularly accuse it of being

  13. The front d’nationle success has happened because the party have appealed to the rest of the population instead of just the racist few.

  14. There were LD to UKIP switchers. Probably not all that many. Those that did probably didn’t realise quite what they were voting for when they voted LD. The LDs always relied on the votes of many people who didn’t particularly share their values. I doubt they will go back now, especially as Farron is likely to be standing on a much clearer pro-European, refugees welcome platform.

    The appearance of more significant LD to UKIP switching was a result of LD to Lab and Con, and Lab and Con to UKIP switching in fairly equal numbers.

    If UKIP support does fall I’d expect the Tories to benefit at the moment. They may even pick up people who voted Labour before going UKIP, which would clearly have very serious electoral implications. B

    ut in the long run much will obviously depend on whether May delivers more of what these voters want or not. UKIP sympathisers are generally angry people and will be hard for a government to satisfy, even if Brexit is delivered by 2020.

  15. There will have been plenty of LD to UKIP switchers in the south west.

  16. Woolfe was not ‘blocked’ due to his heritage. He cocked up his nominations so they came in late, so, reasonably, was not allowed to stand.

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