Tynemouth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17551 (32.8%)
Labour: 25791 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 1595 (3%)
Green: 2017 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6541 (12.2%)
MAJORITY: 8240 (15.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Tyne and Wear. Part of the North Tyneside council area.

Main population centres: Whitley Bay, Tynemouth, Shiremoor, North Shields, Monkseaton.

Profile: A coastal seat on the northern bank of the Tyne. North Shields and the communities along the Tyne itself tend to be more industrial and working class, once dominated by coal mining and shipbuilding. The coastal towns to the north tend to be more middle class dormitory towns for Newcastle commuters.

Politics: This has tended to be one of the more Conservative seats in the Tory desert that is the North East. As a relatively middle class area it returned Conservative MPs from 1950 to 1997, albeit often on narrow majorities. It has been represented by Labour since 1997, though the Conservatives have strength at the local level.


Current MP
ALAN CAMPBELL (Labour) Born 1957, Consett. Educated at Blackfyne Grammar School and Lancaster University. Former history teacher. First elected as MP for Tynemouth in 1997. PPS to Gus Macdonald 2001-2003, PPS to Adam Ingram 2003-2005, government whip 2005-2008, junior minister at the Home Office 2008-2010. Opposition deputy chief whip since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18121 (34%)
Lab: 23860 (45%)
LDem: 7845 (15%)
BNP: 1404 (3%)
Oth: 1438 (3%)
MAJ: 5739 (11%)
2005*
Con: 16000 (37%)
Lab: 20143 (47%)
LDem: 6716 (16%)
MAJ: 4143 (10%)
2001
Con: 14686 (33%)
Lab: 23364 (53%)
LDem: 5108 (12%)
UKIP: 745 (2%)
MAJ: 8678 (20%)
1997
Con: 17045 (33%)
Lab: 28318 (55%)
LDem: 4509 (9%)
Oth: 462 (1%)
MAJ: 11273 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GLENN HALL (Conservative)
ALAN CAMPBELL (Labour) See above.
JOHN PATON-DAY (Liberal Democrat)
GARY LEGG (UKIP)
JULIA ERSKINE (Green) Contested Tynemouth 2010.
Links
Comments - 122 Responses on “Tynemouth”
  1. Good stuff Joe.

    I wonder what seats like Whitley Bay and Tynemouth voted in the 1977 Tyne and Wear elections.

  2. Very strongly Conservative at a guess.

    IIRC the Conservatives outpolled Labour in Tyne & Wear in 1977 although Labour still won an overall majority of councillors.

  3. Yes, I’m sure that is right Richard.

    Tynemouth does have a tradition of giving the Tories good or less bad local election results (constituency) going back a long way actually – so maybe there should have been a bit of warning about the failure in 2010 although it should have been a lot closer.

  4. I have created a North – East constituancy map with an average electorate of about 45K – this would give around 1000 constituencies nationally.

    This yielded 6 tory seats, with a further highly winnable one. Hexham would be very safe, the rest all marginal to a degree.

    1. Cleveland
    2. Eaglescliffe and Yarm
    3. Durham West
    4. Hexham
    5. Morpeth
    6. Tynemouth and Whitley Bay

    (7. Alnwick and Berwick)

    http://boundaryassistant.org/PlanBuilder.htm if anyone fancies a play

  5. Without Shiremoor or North Shields, I think this seat would just tip into the blue.

  6. Actually perhaps Eaglescliffe and Yarm would also be pretty safe.

  7. With boundary changes off the table this seat will be safety Labour. I wonder how high the Lab majority will go given the Tories must have effectively given up hope here?

  8. Alan Campbell should be looking to get his majority to about 9000.

    With the Conservatives lack of interest in this seat. Although with the national parties lack of interest it will mean a local candidate for the Conservatives which could claw some votes back for them.

    Linda Arkley is standing in the Tynemouth Ward in the 2014 locals I have been informed she thinks she can get elected on the back of the Kings priory incident in which she changed her mind when no longer in the mayoralty interesting times ahead in the council election.

    Labour Deselected and expelled from the party Councillor Amanda Normand in the Chirton ward and I am reliably informed she will be standing as an independent

  9. http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Online_VI_20-12-2013_BPC.pdf

    Have you seen this absolute joke of a poll. The UKIP unweighted figure has been diluted enormously.

  10. Look at the party identification figures on page 12. I know I keep saying about how companies such as Populus need to change their methodology but it is about time I cited some evidence. Surely their people must see that there is a problem here.

    Interestingly only the UKIP shares are radically affected

  11. This is possibly the most middle class labour seat in existence. Barring North shields the main population centers are very upper middle class.

  12. Actually looking at this seat, this was probably one of the Conservatives’ worst results in 2010. The fact they didn’t take this then could mean it’s now out of their reach for a long time.

  13. Hmm. Bits of Whitley are pretty basic and have significant social issues. Im sure there must be more middle class labour seats out there.

  14. I remember reading that East Renfrewshire (Jim Murphy’s seat) is very middle class.

  15. As for this seat, wasn’t the Conservatives’ main problem their choice of candidate in 2010 hence the failure to get even close to winning?

  16. I think, having read about this seat on the old site, that a number of things went wrong here for the Conservatives last time.

    I don’t know if also maybe demographically the seat might be heading away from the Tories for now, because Alan Campbell did do extremely well last time- I think the swing to the Conservative candidate Wendy Morton was only about 0.4%?

  17. Tynemouth is pretty upper class, Whitely bay is pretty nice when you’re closer to Monkseaton but less so closer to cullercoats. (the little bit between Tynemouth and whitely bay).

    Monkseaton is also pretty middle class.

  18. I used to live in Tynemouth Robbie – as nice as it is, I would hardly call it upper class!

    The eponymous ward which is split contains a lot of North Shields – the best labour territory in the seat. Tynemouth village is still very heavily tory.

  19. Well as a north easterner under 15 I don’t think I’ve really seen ‘upper class’ but for me tynemouth is the fanciest I’ve ever seen. Surely it’s upper middle class?

  20. Wirral South and Sefton Central are also good candidates for being the most middle-class Labour seats in the country. Even the poorer bits of those seats are hardly unpleasant.

  21. You must be excluding seats in London? There are large numbers of Labour seats there that are more middle-class.

  22. Current prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 50%
    Conservative- 32%
    Liberal Democrat- 9%
    UKIP- 8%
    Green- 1%

  23. Would Exeter be classed as one of Labour’s more middle class seats?

  24. What about Birmingham Edgbaston, Gedling and York Central?

  25. Surely somewhere in Scotland I would have thought. Dumfries and Galloway? Exeter, encompassing a whole city, would have some pretty middle-class bits. Edgbaston, obviously.

  26. Dumfries is a good shout yes. This might be a long shot but what about Edinburgh South West?

  27. Dumfries and Galloway isn’t all that middle-class. The Galloway section in particular is not particularly wealthy.

  28. Isn’t it? It was held for the Tories for a very very long time as well.

  29. And I am aware that a seat does not necessarily have to be very middle-class to be Tory held- see Romford, Harlow, Crawley etc. etc.

  30. Thurrock too.

    prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 47%
    con- 33%
    Lib- 9%
    UKIP- 8%
    Green- 3%

    2010 was a really bad year for the tories and I think that this time round the labour majority will grow even more. A safe labour hold for the future. UKIP don’ have a huge amount of support in these parts so I think they won’t get into double digits.

  31. Glenn Hall is a councillor in Tunbridge Wells, 320 miles from Tynemouth:

    http://www.courier.co.uk/Tunbridge-Wells-councillor-stand-Parliament-320/story-22863364-detail/story.html

  32. Some of the smartest areas of Exeter are outside the constituency e.g. Topsham.

    I also wonder whether the label ‘middle class’ is much use now – people still think of it in terms of Margo and Jerry types from the Good Life but that’s misleading. Exeter is a university town and has a very different strand of ‘middle class’ people living there, with quite different values.

  33. How did we get on to Exeter? Not that I disagree with any of the above.

  34. I would say that Labour’s most middle class seats would mostly be in Scottland – Eastwood and some of the wealthy Edinburgh seats, and Perthshire

    In England it’s seats like Sefton Central, Wirral South, probably Exeter

    Seats in cities are more difficult because they have changed so much – places like Harrow West, Birmingham Edgbaston, Bristol West and Leeds North East – once bastions of the middle classes – have changed remarkably over the past 20-30 years

  35. Re: Exeter, much of what constitutes the constituency would, I assume, be the more working class areas of the city – as Runnymede says the more middle class areas tend to be outside the confines of the city.

  36. I think it would be fair to say that the west of Exeter is traditionally working class – areas like Exwick have almost uninterruptedly voted Labour for many years – ,but that the other compass points of the city are very socially mixed. Labour has taken to winning in relatively middle class areas recently, where the middle class would include many working in the public sector as well as students & staff from the University. Exeter is unusual but by no means unique as a seat which voted Conservative in 1945 but Labour in 1966 (other examples include Hampstead & Monmouth).

  37. In House of Commons Research Paper 11/35 there is a map of the English constituencies coloured by deprivation quintile.

    I think there are no Labour constituencies in the lowest deprivation quintile. In the second lowest quintile, I can find the following Labour-held constituencies:

    City of Durham
    Sefton Central
    Wirral South
    Penistone & Stocksbridge
    NE Derbyshire
    Gedling
    Harrow West

    This seat (i.e. Tynemouth) and Exeter are both in the middle quintile.

    Of course low deprivation isn’t quite the same thing as middle class.

  38. I’m rather surprised that Penistone & Stocksbridge is in that particular list. The others are less surprising although I’d have thought that City of Durham would have its fair share of deprivation outside of the city itself – in the ex-mining towns & villages. I remember reading some years ago that on some indices Wokingham was the least deprived seat in the land – don’t know if that still would be the case. Even Kensington & Chelsea/Fulham, constituencies associated with large numbers of super-rich voters, do still have some quite deprived areas & as of this year both have wards with full slates of Labour councillors. 4 in the case of Kensington.

  39. Low deprivation is so different from middle class as to be irrelevant. Lots of inner city middle areas are more posh than their deprivation status would suggest. Lots of lower-middle class new build areas are less posh than the figures would suggest.

    Interesting that all those seats above are semi-marginals

  40. On the middle class argument the seat of Tynemouth is very working class but for some reason Tynemouth is only a very small area in the seat. Really the seat should be called ‘North Shields.’ or ‘Whitley bay.’

    The North Shields part is working class and contains the meadowell estate which is one of the roughest areas in the country I’d think.

    You then move along to Tynemouth which is all of a sudden very middle / upper middle class despite bordering North Shields.

    Next you move to Whitley bay which is a lower middle class seaside town.

    Monkseaton too is lower middle class however right on the border of this seat sits a street where the houses are literally millions of pounds.

  41. It’s an area that contains some of the most well off and worst off areas and everything in between. I think you’d struggle to find a seat with greater contrast.

  42. There are plenty of other examples. Other extremely polarised seats are Vale of Glamorgan, Meriden (a particularly extreme example – sometimes very high in deprivation index despite being safe Conservative), Westminster N, Edinburgh SW – so you have examples in London, rest of England, Wales & Scotland. Plenty more where they came from.

  43. ‘Other extremely polarised seats are Vale of Glamorgan, Meriden (a particularly extreme example – sometimes very high in deprivation index despite being safe Conservative), Westminster N, Edinburgh SW’

    Westminster North is probably the most stark

    You could add to that list: Wirral South, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Vale of Clwyd, Burton, West Lancs, Leics NW – to name but a few – and almost half of the seats in London

  44. Corby as well?

  45. That’s a good example as well although having visited the villages I’d say the contrasts between rich & poor are a little less stark than in some seats, though Oundle is certainly very prosperous. Some of Tim’s examples are good ones though not sure that much of Vale of Clwyd is all that well-to-do (St Asaph is perhaps). It is certainly true that very little of that seat has deprivation remotely as great as Rhyl though Meliden isn’t prosperous. Almost half the seats in London might be overstating it a bit though there are quite wealthy pockets even in quite grotty areas in many parts of London, as we know.

  46. Newcastle East is surprisingly very mixed. In fact all the Newcastle seats are… Labour are very lucky that the middle class areas of Newcastle are so divided up in parliamentary seats – it would be possible to draw up a seat in which the Lib Dems would be favourites in 2015.

  47. Vale of Clwyd isn’t particularly well-to do but it does have some relatively well-off retired people and none of the other towns – St Asaph, Prestatyn, even Denbigh – atre quite as deprived as Rhyl

    Did the Tories not have some success with the inaptly named Newcastle Central seat in the 1980s? You couldn’t imagine them repeating such a feat anytime soon

  48. The problem with Newcastle is that the *City Centre* is in the far south of the city and thus Newcastle Central could logically geographically exclude the city centre.

  49. Another rather polarised seat is Stroud

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