Tynemouth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17551 (32.8%)
Labour: 25791 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 1595 (3%)
Green: 2017 (3.8%)
UKIP: 6541 (12.2%)
MAJORITY: 8240 (15.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Tyne and Wear. Part of the North Tyneside council area.

Main population centres: Whitley Bay, Tynemouth, Shiremoor, North Shields, Monkseaton.

Profile: A coastal seat on the northern bank of the Tyne. North Shields and the communities along the Tyne itself tend to be more industrial and working class, once dominated by coal mining and shipbuilding. The coastal towns to the north tend to be more middle class dormitory towns for Newcastle commuters.

Politics: This has tended to be one of the more Conservative seats in the Tory desert that is the North East. As a relatively middle class area it returned Conservative MPs from 1950 to 1997, albeit often on narrow majorities. It has been represented by Labour since 1997, though the Conservatives have strength at the local level.


Current MP
ALAN CAMPBELL (Labour) Born 1957, Consett. Educated at Blackfyne Grammar School and Lancaster University. Former history teacher. First elected as MP for Tynemouth in 1997. PPS to Gus Macdonald 2001-2003, PPS to Adam Ingram 2003-2005, government whip 2005-2008, junior minister at the Home Office 2008-2010. Opposition deputy chief whip since 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18121 (34%)
Lab: 23860 (45%)
LDem: 7845 (15%)
BNP: 1404 (3%)
Oth: 1438 (3%)
MAJ: 5739 (11%)
2005*
Con: 16000 (37%)
Lab: 20143 (47%)
LDem: 6716 (16%)
MAJ: 4143 (10%)
2001
Con: 14686 (33%)
Lab: 23364 (53%)
LDem: 5108 (12%)
UKIP: 745 (2%)
MAJ: 8678 (20%)
1997
Con: 17045 (33%)
Lab: 28318 (55%)
LDem: 4509 (9%)
Oth: 462 (1%)
MAJ: 11273 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GLENN HALL (Conservative)
ALAN CAMPBELL (Labour) See above.
JOHN PATON-DAY (Liberal Democrat)
GARY LEGG (UKIP)
JULIA ERSKINE (Green) Contested Tynemouth 2010.
Links
Comments - 122 Responses on “Tynemouth”
  1. Kensington too – though the north of the seat is gentrifying quite fast now.

    Plenty of others in London though, as Tim says, few as stark as Westminster North.

    Leyton & Wanstead is one not mentioned yet.

  2. Sheffield Central has some very nice houses in Broomhill to contrast with the poverty found in Manor Castle.

  3. ‘The problem with Newcastle is that the *City Centre* is in the far south of the city and thus Newcastle Central could logically geographically exclude the city centre’

    I always regarded the Tyne Bridge seat as Newcastle Central although that seat included bits of Gateshead in it

  4. Brentford & Isleworth is surely worth a mention given that in includes the ever-increasingly affluent Chiswick

    There’s also quite a few safe Labour seats in South East London – Lewisham, Greenwich and especially Dulwich – which contain pockets of extreme affluence next to ones of severe poverty

    Abouit 20 years ago the pre-97 Kensington was a classic example with a superaffluent Soiuth and a run-down North, although as Hemekig says the latter has gentrified to such an extent (thanks in no small part to Cameron and his posh chums) that it no longer applies

  5. I’d have thought the Tories should have gone for a local candidate here.
    A good opportunity was thrown away last time but the local elections from 2000 onwards (and even before that) did suggest Labour underperforms here quite badly locally – even in opposition.

    But it should be a Con target in the future if they can get their act together.

  6. Tim’s right that while a generation ago almost all of Brentford & Isleworth was socially mixed, and had elements of good support for both Labour & the Tories, it is now becoming increasingly polarised between solid Labour Hounslow (well, 2 of the 3 Hounslow wards in particular) & solid Tory Chiswick. As it happens I went canvassing in the constituency a week & half ago, and again this evening. This evening was a good canvass albeit in a particularly strongly Labour area & it netted a very good number of additional Labour promises. Several people who voted Conservative in 2010 were very much on the fence. It will be interesting to see what returns are like in more Tory-inclined areas.

  7. Tory’s working this seat hard according to a local Lib Dem Councillor. It seems to be getting plenty of money (3 pieces of direct mail last month) but my understanding was that it wasn’t a Tory target seat?

    I suppose they do have an outside chance, although 2010 was nothing short of disatorus for them here.

  8. Glenn Hall is fighting a very professional and active campaign and certainly does have an outside chance – the Tories heavily underperformed here in 2010 because of their disastrous choice of candidate, so Labour’s current majority flatters them.

    Certainly a better candidate this time. Yes, he currently lives in Kent which is not ideal, but born and brought up on Tyneside with a noticeable Geordie accent. That makes it hard for Labour to portray him as an outsider.

  9. Prediction (on a turnout of 52.5k)

    Labour 24k
    Tory 19k
    Liberal 4.5k
    Ukip 4k
    Green 1k

  10. pre-election prediction:

    Lab- 47%
    Con- 31%
    UKIP- 14%
    Lib- 4%
    Green- 4%

    -A really tough one, I’m sure the citizens of Tynemouth itself will be voting differently to that of Whitley bay and North Shields, the three main areas that make up this seat.

    -Pretty much everyone I know from North Shields is voting UKIP, it’s a very downtrodden area too, feels very ukippy. I think UKIP however will gather nearly all their votes in this seat from this part.

    -Meanwhile in Tynemouth (the actual part of Tynemouth is a very small area in the seat of Tynemouth.) the Tories do really well. I think that in Tynemouth the conservatives will do very well. It’s very posh, despite being so close to Shields, and if you go there you see many copies of the daily telegraph flying around.

    -Whitley Bay will probably be the area that swings the huge Labour vote, which will slightly increase, mostly thanks to angry lib dem voters defecting.

    -I think the Liberal democrats are stuffed here. There’s been virtually no support for them in the area and whether they save their deposit here should be a really close thing.

    -The greens will have a vote increase.

  11. Lab hold here, but agree that the Tories will come closer than 2010.

    Not surprised to see them throwing money at this though. They always take a punt on one or two wildcard seats in weaker regions, and provided that they have the money it makes sense. This is the sort of place that should be within the Tories reach if they’re a few points ahead nationally (or the candidate is very strong). With the possibility of an SNP-dependant hung parliament, there’s a higher than usual chance that Labour’s popularity will venture south next time around (though equally, the Tories being dependant on the DUP and UKIP could help Labour hoover up voters they have little hope of attracting this time).

  12. Labour hold. 10,000 majority

  13. Local elections in 2014 gave the following result

    Lab 43%
    Tories 36%
    Ukip 19%
    LD 2%

    The Lds stood in less than half of the seats so they are not fully represented in the results.

    I used live here and my sister in law was elected to the Whitley Bay ward last year as well and knowing the area the Labour vote is normally difficult to get out for the locals but will come out for the GE. there has been little to move the votes since last year so I would predict

    Lab 47%
    Tories 32%
    Ukip 14%
    LD 7%

  14. except for in Tynemouth proper, middle-class was always a bit thin on the ground in this seat. The conversion of local private to academy because of poor finances recently underscores this, along with the many boarded up or shops further along the coast.

    Some of the more deprived areas, like Whitley bay from personal experience, have a definite Ukippy vibe to them ( Faded, WWC, Seaside resort)

    labour hold

  15. Labour hold. UKIP probably going to eat away at Conservative vote to make sure.
    In no way a threat, but I wouldn’t be suprised if the Greens got their best ever result due to defecting LDs.

    Council election is less clear. Currently all Conservative, but with the GE, the better turnout might change that.

  16. Good increase for UKIP’s vote, but Labour has reaffirmed its position here with an increased majority (8240). After the Tory campaign for 2010 went pear shaped, I assume their challenge nationally in Tynemouth is done for.

  17. Okay, not to brag or anything, but my prediction was pretty good if I say so myself…

  18. UK Polling calls this as a “safe” Labour seat. But a 3% swing from Labour to Tory, low Labour turnout on the day, and a collapse in the UKIP vote could easily see the Tories retake this on 8th June.

  19. Could be a tory gain in June here. 50/50.

  20. @davem good prediction almost spot on

  21. Ukiip not standing here which increases the chances of a Tory gain. One of only 3 North east seats without UKIP standing – the others are Berwick and Middlesbrough South.

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