Twickenham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25580 (41.3%)
Labour: 7129 (11.5%)
Lib Dem: 23563 (38%)
Green: 2463 (4%)
UKIP: 3069 (4.9%)
Christian: 174 (0.3%)
Others: 26 (0%)
MAJORITY: 2017 (3.3%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Richmond on Thames council area.

Main population centres: Twickenham, Teddington, Hampton.

Profile: The seat consists of the part of the Borough of Richmond-on-Thames that lies to the north of the River Thames. This is prosperous and leafy suburbia, with high house prices, a high proportion of graduates and little social housing. The seat has two major film and television venues - Twickenham Studios, a venue for the filming and production for many high profile films and Teddington Studios, a television studio now owned by Pinewood. The seat also includes Twickenham Stadium, the world`s largest dedicated Rugby stadium, and Hampton Court Palace and its grounds.

Politics: Twickenham was historically a safe Conservative seat but was won by Vince Cable of the Liberal Democrats in the Tories` landslide defeat of 1997. Cable was one of the most high profile Liberal Democrats, was business secretary in the coalition government and became one of the most high profile casualties of the Liberal Democrats` crushing defeat in 2015.


Current MP
TANIA MATHIAS (Conservative) Educated at St Pauls Girls School and Oxford University. Former doctor. First elected as MP for Twickenham in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20343 (34%)
Lab: 4583 (8%)
LDem: 32483 (54%)
UKIP: 868 (1%)
Oth: 1444 (2%)
MAJ: 12140 (20%)
2005
Con: 16731 (32%)
Lab: 5868 (11%)
LDem: 26696 (52%)
GRN: 1445 (3%)
Oth: 947 (2%)
MAJ: 9965 (19%)
2001
Con: 16689 (33%)
Lab: 6903 (14%)
LDem: 24344 (49%)
GRN: 1423 (3%)
Oth: 579 (1%)
MAJ: 7655 (15%)
1997
Con: 21956 (38%)
Lab: 9065 (16%)
LDem: 26237 (45%)
Oth: 886 (2%)
MAJ: 4281 (7%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TANIA MATHIAS (Conservative) Educated at St Pauls Girls School and Oxford University. Doctor.
NICK GRANT (Labour) Barrister.
VINCENT CABLE (Liberal Democrat) Born 1943, York. Educated at Nunthorpe Grammar and Cambridge University. Chief economist for Shell. Glasgow councillor 1971-1974 for the Labour party. Contested York 1983, 1987, Twickenham 1992. MP for Twickenham 1997 to 2015. Liberal Democrat shadow chancellor 2003-2010. Deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats 2006-2010 and acting leader following Ming Campbells resigination in 2007. Secretary of State for Business since 2010.
BARRY EDWARDS (UKIP) Businessman.
TANYA WILLIAMS (Green) Educated at Bryanston School and Cambridge University. Human rights student.
DOMINIC STOCKFORD (Christian) Pastor.
DAVID WEDGWOOD (Magna Carta) Contested Bermondsey 1983 by-election.
Links
Comments - 509 Responses on “Twickenham”
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  1. Vince Cable believes “Brexit may never happen”.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40547733

    I’m struggling a bit here, so I’m throwing this out as a challenge – can anyone devise a plausible scenario in which we do stay in the EU after all? Even the single-issue headbangers at The New European seem to have given up hope on that front and are now looking to fudge things Norway-style.

  2. It does appear the polls are moving away from Brexit. It may be that the issue starts to hurt the Tories that they change their mind

  3. You think so? I could have foreseen it being overturned by Parliament in the wake of the Brexit vote, but Parliament then ratified the decision by a thumping majority. The 318 Conservative and 262 Labour MPs (and for that matter, ten from the DUP) were then elected on manifestos committed to honouring the decision. Many people voted Conservative because they trusted them to deliver Brexit, and many people were persuaded by Labour making similar reassurances. So Brexit is now tied to a genuine election with constitutional weight, rather than just a notionally advisory referendum.

    On top of all of this, as Jeremy Corbyn pointed out in his rebuttal to the Queen’s Speech, the Tories’ legislative programme for the next couple of years is pretty thin, and lots of what is there is Brexit-related. If they junk Brexit on top of that, what are they actually going to be doing?

  4. Brexit may continue unperturbed by public opinion sliding. If David Davis does topple May there is no turning back. However, if two years from now Brexit is still going on and inflation is still rising with wages continuing to fall i think the DUP may pull their support or at least abstain on any important legislation. May might stand down and someone like Hammond takes over. The Lib Dems might agree to supporting the Tories on legislation involving housing and mental health in exchange for a referendum on the final deal.

  5. Polltroll
    “can anyone devise a plausible scenario in which we do stay in the EU after all?”

    Not saying this will happen obviously but here’s a “semi” plausible hypothetical scenario. Don’t take this too seriously its mostly just a bit of fun.

    The current gov plods along as it currently is with negotiations, they go as disastrously as they have so far with literally none of the UK’s demands being met and the UK being forced to capitulate on each and every issue. With each passing month the high profile Brexiters like Fox become more and more unhinged with talk about the unpatriotic BBC and how we should all support British tie makers post Brexit becoming the norm and doing the cause of Brexit no good whatsoever. At the same time the “anti Brexit” voice becomes louder, emboldened and more unified, sounding less like “Remoaners” and more like genuine, respected concerns, around this point a pro Remain cabinet member in a pro Remain seat (Justine Greening?) breaks ranks and comes out publically saying Brexit should be stopped, May promptly sacks her which causes no amount of disquiet amongst the pro Remain Tory backbenchers.

    All the while it becomes apparent that Britain is almost certain to crash out of the EU without a deal and the dire economic ramifications of such an outcome become ever more clear. As the UK slips back into recession May’s talk of “no deal being better than a bad deal” becomes as much a parody as “strong and stable” was and under pressure from Hammond and the business community the gov focus is instead directed towards the creation of a transition arrangement to buy them more time for the proper exit deal

    New years day 2022 and May is still PM, Britain is still in the EU having in 2019 used all our diplomatic capital to secure a 5 year transition arrangement that maintains the status quo until 2024 thus buying us more negotiating time, however the country is still in the depths of a recession caused by Brexit uncertainty amongst other issues. Having already blown more than half that new negotiating time and only proven further how shambolic Brexit is going to be (looks like our outstanding payments equal over 50 billion etc) and on the eve of an another GE which the gov looks set to lose (polling consistently showing a 5-10 point Lab lead and also a consistent lead for staying IN the EU should the ref be held again) the government starts to panic, the Brexiters become even more delusional with at some point Fox making a totally outrageous pro Brexit/anti EU comment that becomes something of a government scandal and forces his resignation (again) while disunity amongst Remainers (in both parties) is now open and common.

    May is disposed in a leadership challenge which is very narrowly won by the “safe pair of hands” Phillip Hammond who immediately charts a more pro EU stance for the sake of the economy with some of his new cabinet actively supporting Norway style EEA membership. Tory civil war now threatens to rip apart the party which does nothing for its poll ratings. Lab meanwhile (now led by Clive Lewis, Corbyn having voluntarily stood down due to age concerns but also increasing disquiet amongst the overwhelmingly pro EU membership) is still walking the “all things to all people” tightrope on the EU but has definitely shifted with the times. its policy seems to vary from soft Brexit to a second referendum with nobody quite being able to pin them down (not that this seems to harm them) Lab once again seems to have become a repository for angry Remainers without angering working class leavers too much.

    GE election 2022 results in a Lab minority gov propped up by the “progressive alliance” (Libs, SNP, Plaid, Green) who emboldened by national polling on Brexit demand a “referendum to review the decision to trigger article 50” Having himself resigned the Lab frontbench several years earlier over the triggering of article 50 and facing a backbench rebellion over the issue prime minister Lewis is forced to concede to the demands on the stipulation once again that its only an “advisory referendum to gauge public opinion”

    The unofficial 2nd EU referendum results in 54% “Remain” vote in large part due to a more enthused youth vote, lower turnout amongst Leavers but most importantly a horrible “pro Leave” campaign which (with the complete destruction of UKIP over the last few years and the loss of credibility of many of its past figureheads like BoJo) quickly descended into farce and accusations of pro establishment stitch ups and conspiracy theories.

    The wake of the result see’s even more frothing from Brexiters which leaves a vacuum for a measured response from the Remainers who note the new ref was just “advisory” and highlight that this doesn’t mean we’ll be staying in the EU just that the situation is to be reviewed. This does something towards calming matters and people mostly go on with their lives. Meanwhile an independent non partisan committee is established to examine routes forward and in the mealtime Britain remains in the EU. The findings when they emerge a few years later quietly endorse continued EU membership on economic grounds. Despite the frothing of arch Brexiters at this “stitch up” the country and indeed the world has moved on over the past decade and Brexit just doesn’t pick up the salience it once did, a new UKIP style party emerges in response to this but it remains pretty fringe and Brexit is never seriously again revisited as an issue.

    As I said don’t take that too seriously I’m just having some fun

  6. Wow that came out a long longer than I planned, kudos if anyone actually bothers to read that XD

  7. Thanks Rivers, I enjoyed that 🙂 It made me feel like singing “Imagine”, Donald Tusk-style.

    The one thing I’m not sure is how flexible Article 50 is on the timings. Are we really allowed to extend the deadline? I guess ultimately it would fall under the ruling of the ECJ, and I’m sure they’d let it slide.

  8. Extension of the 2 year deadline for leaving is not a matter for the ECJ, Polltroll, but it would need unanimous agreement of the EU27. So if the UK were to ask to extend it would be quite conceivable that one or more of the 27 would say ‘no’.

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