Truro & Falmouth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22681 (44%)
Labour: 7814 (15.2%)
Lib Dem: 8681 (16.8%)
Green: 4483 (8.7%)
UKIP: 5967 (11.6%)
Mebyon Kernow: 563 (1.1%)
NHA: 526 (1%)
Independent: 792 (1.5%)
Others: 37 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (27.2%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SARAH NEWTON (Conservative) Born 1961, Gloucestershire. Educated at Falmouth School and Kings College London. Former banker and Director of Age Concern. Former Merton councillor. First elected as MP for Truro & Falmouth in 2010. Government whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20349 (42%)
Lab: 4697 (10%)
LDem: 19914 (41%)
UKIP: 1911 (4%)
Oth: 1897 (4%)
MAJ: 435 (1%)
2005*
Con: 16686 (32%)
Lab: 6991 (14%)
LDem: 24089 (47%)
UKIP: 2736 (5%)
Oth: 1062 (2%)
MAJ: 7403 (14%)
2001
Con: 16231 (32%)
Lab: 6889 (14%)
LDem: 24296 (48%)
UKIP: 1664 (3%)
Oth: 1215 (2%)
MAJ: 8065 (16%)
1997
Con: 15001 (26%)
Lab: 8697 (15%)
LDem: 27502 (48%)
Oth: 1865 (3%)
MAJ: 12501 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Truro & St Austell

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SARAH NEWTON (Conservative) See above.
STUART RODEN (Labour) Trade union officer.
SIMON RIX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University College London. Marketing professional. Cornwall councillor.
JOHN HYSLOP (UKIP) Born 1953. Consultant radiologist.
KAREN WESTBROOK (Green) Driving instructor. Contested Cornwall and West Plymouth 1994 European election.
STEPHEN RICHARDSON (Mebyon Kernow)
RIK EVANS (NHA) Born Canada. Businessman.
STANLEY GUFFOGG (Principles of Politics) Educated at Oxford University. Lecturer.
LOIC RICH (Independent) Self employed copywriter and journalist. Cornwall councillor since 2013. Contested Truro and Falmouth 2010 for Mebyon Kernow.
Links
Comments - 246 Responses on “Truro & Falmouth”
  1. Four leaflets yesterday – Lib Dems (again…), Greens (their first), Loic Rich and Ukip.

    If nothing else, it looks like the Lib Dems are going to make Royal Mail profitable this year.

  2. Three leaflets today, all Tory. One in post and two hand-delivered.

    Was up and down the A30 a bit yesterday. Seems like more of a Lib Dem presence in the north seat and Labour in Redruth. The only Labour activity I’ve seen in Truro was the candidate setting up a stall on Lemon Quay on Saturday.

  3. Again today, the curious phenomenon of receiving leaflets delivered by post and by hand on the same day from the same party. This time Labour.

    Also received another bit of junk mail from the Lib Dems. Allegedly the Tories aren’t interested in Cornwall and Ms Newton is in London too much. Oh well.

  4. James,

    I seem to recall from my days of political activism that parties have very little control over when the Royal Mail delivers the freepost… And any party relying on local deliverers will not have much control either…

    Andrew

  5. James, even my folks who are Tory (albeit dabbling with UKIP) voters within this constituency tell me that Newton is invisible.

  6. @andrew111

    Aye, you’re right in saying that. I’m just not used to this amount of “literature” being provided, having previously resided in one of Labour’s (former) safe seats in central Scotland. If it’s been at all useful, it has at least ruled out one or two possibilities.

    @Potter

    That’s interesting; one of the allegations in the Liberal letter was that some of the longstanding local Tories were emigrating to Ukip.

  7. Conservative Hold. 4,000 maj.

  8. Falmouth Penwerris by-election. LibDem candidate took seat long-held by sometime Labour candidate, Gerald Chin-Quee

    Lib Dems 353, Lab 221, Ind 120, MK 71

  9. Town council by-election it seems.

  10. Gerald Chin Quee…fantastic name. Given the lack of employment opportunities in the SW, I hope he can find a decent job.

  11. Majority goes from 435 to 14000, pretty impressive at first glance. Of course one doesn’t need to delve much deeper to see her share of the vote didn’t improve much from 2010 (44% from 42) and it’s the lack of a unified opposition (with all three of Lab, LD, UKIP polling similarly) that gave such an impressive Conservative result.

  12. Having a driving instructor as a candidate doesn’t seem very Green Party

  13. Runnymede- that is probably why they did so well compared to their disappointing show nationwide. Higher vote here than in Islington South.

  14. No, it’s not very appropriate. What next, big game hunters and nuclear testers as candidates? Wake up Greens.

  15. LOL

  16. I wouldn’t trust any of the Green members I know to teach me to drive, they’d all be stoned.

  17. Better stoned than coked off their nut, eh? Here’s looking at you George Osborne.

  18. HA HA! Who else is unlikely to be a Green candidate by occupation?

  19. An abattoir worker?

  20. Nice one.

  21. a coalminer too – not that there are many of those left

  22. Yes that’s true.

  23. In case anyone was wondering where Corbyn is, Sky just showed him on the north Cornwall coast on Saturday afternoon, in a place with a population of 3,000.

    Ha that’s certainly going to the ends of the Earth but I’m not quite sure what talking to bemused surfers achieves in this campaign.

  24. At a guess, it’s trying to 1) demonstrate to Cornish people that they’re being listened to and treated as important in the referendum, 2) show rural areas more generally the same, 3) impress upon the population more broadly the seriousness with which the referendum’s being treated.

    Whether that will work is another question.

  25. I thought Corbyn was meant to be trying to get the Labour core vote out for remain? Then why he was in North Cornwall where Labour core voters are lacking (to say the least), god only knows…

  26. To be fair, the Labour voters in North Cornwall are going to be very, very loyal.

  27. @Mrnameless true but there aren’t very many of them lol. It would be like David Cameron going off to Easington to energise the Tory core vote (even though the few Tories there are there are probably also very loyal).

    Jezza really should be up North in places like Rotherham and Doncaster where a lot of Labours base may well be tempted by leave. But maybe the party has decided his presence would be counterproductive so sent him off to North Cornwall conveniently out of the way?

  28. I heard a report from Redruth on Radio 4 last week and I think Cornwall is probably going to vote Remain because of reliance on EU funding.

  29. really? I’d have thought Cornwall would edge toward Leave because of all the pensioners and the fishing industry. Though not by as much as neighbouring Torridge

  30. It could vote leave of course, but I got the impression from that Redruth report on R4 that its more dependent on EU funding that most places. It is the poorest county in England after all.

  31. Pepperminttea
    Corbyn was in Doncaster the other week and Grimsby a bit earlier, I too am somewhat baffled as to why he’s in Cornwall (maybe he’s literally trying to visit everywhere?) but he has been making his presence know up North.

  32. Johnson and Gove were in Stratford upon Avon today. I wonder if they are going to visit everywhere as well.

  33. Maxim
    Johnson’s here in Liverpool tomorrow apparently (got a Lab party email about it) those battle buses are really eating up the miles.

  34. Yes I wonder how Liverpudlians will respond to him.

  35. Probably as positive as the public can be for politicians I suppose, Johnson is a very likable guy and Liverpool is obviously as Labour as it comes so no real harm can be done.

  36. “Johnson is a very likable guy and Liverpool is obviously as Labour as it comes so no real harm can be done.”

    He managed to put his foot right in it last time he was there…and subsequent events re Hillsborough have made his comments sound much more crass in retrospect.

  37. As a local this is truly woeful that I don’t know this but what did he do and when?

  38. Google “BORIS JOHNSON SPECTATOR HILLSBOROUGH LIVERPOOL “

  39. LOL!!! Huge facepalm moment on my part. I am aware of that Boris Johnson incident but for some reason I thought Maxim was talking about ALAN Johnson who is going to be in Liverpool tomorrow.

  40. I think it was actually Simon Heffer who wrote the offending piece in the Spectator, but Boris as then Editor is often attributed.

    Michael Howard sent him up to Liverpool to apologise for his comments after that around a decade ago from memory. Howard stood here twice, his sister lives here and he supports Liverpool FC.

  41. Wasn’t Corbyn on holiday?

    Maybe that’s why it was so low key.

  42. In the context of this referendum the Tories going anywhere near Liverpool is counterproductive for either side (whether Cameron or Johnson) as Liverpool’s instinct will likely be the opposite of what the wicked Tories are telling them to do. Stratford-on-Avon on the other hand seems like a perfectly sensible place for Johnson and Gove to go: a place filled with a lot of Conservative voters that will be critical for leave to win over if they want to win the referendum.

    @rivers10. He might well have been, my comment about Jezza being packed off to North Cornwall was obviously a joke lol. Though if you want my opinion keep Jeremy and his cult (momentum) confined to highly lefty inner city areas and let the more lucid wing of the Labour party run campaigns in the rest of the country.

  43. I saw on the BBC website that this was the only constituency in Cornwall to vote Remain. Makes sense I guess due to the large number of students and University workers. The joint campus for the University of Exeter and Falmouth University (formally Falmouth College of Arts) was mostly paid for with EU funds. I believe that the largest part of the university and most of the student accommodation is in the Camborne and Redruth constituency, but the majority of people will actually live in Penryn/Falmouth.

    The presence of the Universities has been integral in making the area relatively prosperous and Falmouth is definitely on an upwards swing unlike so many other towns in Cornwall that have little else than tourism to tide them over.

  44. ‘I saw on the BBC website that this was the only constituency in Cornwall to vote Remain. Makes sense I guess due to the large number of students and University workers’

    I wasn’t ware of the student vote as personally I would have though St Austell & Newquay are more likely to seat to vote Remain than here

    Funny that most of the student accomodation is in the Cambourne seat as that had the highest Brexit vote in the county

  45. It’s a large (and growing) population. I spent my undergrad days here and can attest to the size of the population and its growth.

    “Funny that most of the student accomodation is in the Cambourne seat as that had the highest Brexit vote in the county”

    Camborne and Redruth are some of the most impoverished towns in Cornwall. There is little to attract investment into West Cornwall due to geography and the lack of transport links. These towns are also cursed again by geography by being inland. It’s only the first year students who live in student accommodation in the C&R constituency, the vast majority of students rent privately in Falmouth or Penryn.

  46. I tend to think Labour and Green will see a lot of their votes (15.2 and 8.7, respectively) evaporate back to LD, with some Con to LD switchers but that offset with UKIP to Con switchers. A good LD candidate could run this within a 10% majority, I think, though they won’t win. It is, if I’m correct, the only Remain seat in Cornwall, though, so I’d bet on it being a focus.

    Maybe something like:
    CON 46
    LD 35
    LAB 9
    UKIP 5
    GRN 4
    OTH 1

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)