Truro & Falmouth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22681 (44%)
Labour: 7814 (15.2%)
Lib Dem: 8681 (16.8%)
Green: 4483 (8.7%)
UKIP: 5967 (11.6%)
Mebyon Kernow: 563 (1.1%)
NHA: 526 (1%)
Independent: 792 (1.5%)
Others: 37 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (27.2%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SARAH NEWTON (Conservative) Born 1961, Gloucestershire. Educated at Falmouth School and Kings College London. Former banker and Director of Age Concern. Former Merton councillor. First elected as MP for Truro & Falmouth in 2010. Government whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20349 (42%)
Lab: 4697 (10%)
LDem: 19914 (41%)
UKIP: 1911 (4%)
Oth: 1897 (4%)
MAJ: 435 (1%)
2005*
Con: 16686 (32%)
Lab: 6991 (14%)
LDem: 24089 (47%)
UKIP: 2736 (5%)
Oth: 1062 (2%)
MAJ: 7403 (14%)
2001
Con: 16231 (32%)
Lab: 6889 (14%)
LDem: 24296 (48%)
UKIP: 1664 (3%)
Oth: 1215 (2%)
MAJ: 8065 (16%)
1997
Con: 15001 (26%)
Lab: 8697 (15%)
LDem: 27502 (48%)
Oth: 1865 (3%)
MAJ: 12501 (22%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Truro & St Austell

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SARAH NEWTON (Conservative) See above.
STUART RODEN (Labour) Trade union officer.
SIMON RIX (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University College London. Marketing professional. Cornwall councillor.
JOHN HYSLOP (UKIP) Born 1953. Consultant radiologist.
KAREN WESTBROOK (Green) Driving instructor. Contested Cornwall and West Plymouth 1994 European election.
STEPHEN RICHARDSON (Mebyon Kernow)
RIK EVANS (NHA) Born Canada. Businessman.
STANLEY GUFFOGG (Principles of Politics) Educated at Oxford University. Lecturer.
LOIC RICH (Independent) Self employed copywriter and journalist. Cornwall councillor since 2013. Contested Truro and Falmouth 2010 for Mebyon Kernow.
Links
Comments - 260 Responses on “Truro & Falmouth”
  1. Smithick ward by-election, 01.02.18, caused by the death of Labour Cllr and ex-MP Candy Atherton, aged 62*:

    Labour 643 60% (+ 20%)
    Cons 184 17% (- 7%)
    LD 184 17% (- 2%)
    Green 57 5% (- 11)

    Lab Hold [low turnout as it’s a ward in the top 100 in the UK for students]

    [* I’ve mentioned this previously so I won’t labour the point – although I do recall a few on here doubting the figures – but the age at which sitting cllrs are dying is truly shocking]

  2. This is certainly an intriguing seat because it has very strong Lib Dem support for a Con/Lab marginal. At a guess, I’d say these remaining folk probably lean Labour, being largely anti-Tory voters who had become used to the main alternative being the Lib Dems.

    Arguably this makes it an easier pick-up for Labour than other Tory seats with similar majorities.

  3. The Labour winning candidate in the Local by-election was their GE candidate.

  4. it seems odd describing this as a Con/Lab marginal given 2017 was the first time Labour have ever polled over 20%

    No place has swung as heavily against the Lib Dems as Cornwall

  5. “No place has swung as heavily against the Lib Dems as Cornwall.”

    Technically true, but not particularly meaningful, because almost nowhere else had such a significant chunk of Lib Dem votes to lose in the first place. It’s like the tedious “Tony Blair lost five million voters” argument.

  6. “it seems odd describing this as a Con/Lab marginal given 2017 was the first time Labour have ever polled over 20%”

    Not saying much really, since this seat has only existed since 2010. Had it existed in 1997 and 2001 Labour would certainly have polled over 20% given that Candy Atherton won the Falmouth half of the seat in those elections. They would also almost certainly have polled above 20% in most if not all elections before 1974.

    That said, the Lib Dem collapse in Truro is particularly noteworthy given that it was their only seat in Cornwall from 1979 to 1992. Much better for them than St Ives in those days, which now looks like their only realistic prospect of winning a Cornish seat back.

  7. Rumours Sarah Newton has resigned as a minster.

  8. Confirmed that she has gone (as she voted against the goverment), The abstainers will all remain atm.

  9. ‘That said, the Lib Dem collapse in Truro is particularly noteworthy given that it was their only seat in Cornwall from 1979 to 1992’

    Like Devon North & Montgomeryshire, Truro was one of those seats you could call Lib Dem

    It’s not a particularly affluent city, and follows what’s happened to Lib Dems in similar sort of seats like Yeovil and Devon North where they seem to have lost much of the working class vote they used to bank on when they were fighting it out with the Tories

    Brexit has changed that

  10. This was the only seat in Cornwall which voted remain and is now an outside Labour prospect (even taking into account the working class nature of Falmouth which was strong for Labour in 2001 when about held Camborne and Falmouth) Although Labours chances of winning in Camborne and Redruth are higher against arch brexiteer George Eustace as that is more marginal even though that voted leave.

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