Tottenham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5090 (12%)
Labour: 28654 (67.3%)
Lib Dem: 1756 (4.1%)
Green: 3931 (9.2%)
UKIP: 1512 (3.6%)
TUSC: 1324 (3.1%)
Others: 291 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 23564 (55.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Haringey council area.

Main population centres: Tottenham, Tottenham Hale, Haringay, West Green, Seven Sisters, Bruce Grove, Northumberland Park.

Profile: A cosmopolitian, inner city seat in the borough of Haringey. Tottenham has a large ethnic minority population, around a fifth of residents are black, there is a large muslim population. The percentage of white residents understates the variation of this seat, since that itself includes Russians, Cypriots, Irish, eastern European and Jewish communties. The constituency includes the Broadwater Farm estate, notorious for the 1985 riots where PC Keith Blacklock was hacked to death. The estate underwent a massive facelift following the riots and is no longer a crime blackspot, but other areas of the seat like Tottenham Green continue to be blighted by crime, guns and drugs and in 2011 the seat was once again the epicentre of widespread rioting after the shooting of Mark Duggan.

Politics: Formerly represented by the colourful Labour left-winger Bernie Grant, notorious for having allegedly described the Broadwater Farm riots as the police getting "a bloody good hiding", the by-election following his death in 2000 was won by another black MP, David Lammy. Tottenham is a reliably Labour seat, along with its predecessor seats it has returned Labour MPs since 1935, though it was briefly represented by the Conservatives when the sitting Labour MP Alan Browne defected to them in 1962. At a local level Haringey council is split directly down the middle, the western wards that fall under Hornsey and Wood Green retain some Lib Dem strength, the eastern wards in this seat are solidly Labour.


Current MP
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) Born 1972, Tottenham. Educated at the Kings School, Peterborough and SOAS. Barrister. First elected as MP for Tottenham in 2000 by-election. Under-Secretary of State for health 2002-2003, for constitutional affairs 2003-2005, for culture, media and sport 2005-2007 and for Innovation, Universities and Skills 2007-2008, Minister of State for Higher Education 2008-2010. Served briefly as a member of the London Assembly, but stood down almost immediately having been elected as MP for Tottenham in the 2000 by-election.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6064 (15%)
Lab: 24128 (59%)
LDem: 7197 (18%)
GRN: 980 (2%)
Oth: 2318 (6%)
MAJ: 16931 (42%)
2005
Con: 4278 (14%)
Lab: 18343 (58%)
LDem: 5309 (17%)
GRN: 1457 (5%)
Oth: 2277 (7%)
MAJ: 13034 (41%)
2001
Con: 4401 (14%)
Lab: 21317 (67%)
LDem: 3008 (10%)
GRN: 1443 (5%)
Oth: 1432 (5%)
MAJ: 16916 (54%)
1997
Con: 5921 (16%)
Lab: 26121 (69%)
LDem: 4064 (11%)
Oth: 1598 (4%)
MAJ: 20200 (54%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEFAN MROZINSKI (Conservative)
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) See above.
TURHAN OZEN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middle East Technical University. Software engineer. Contested London region 2014 European election.
TARIQ SAEED (UKIP)
DEE SEARLE (Green)
TANIA MAHMOOD (Peace)
JENNY SUTTON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 167 Responses on “Tottenham”
  1. Nice to see you back Justin. Though people on here including me have on occasion laughed at your optimism for Tottenham Conservatives, your persistence does you credit as does the fact that you have not long since abandoned such unfertile territory as a careerist would have done.

    I always value your opinion on all things North London. Do you think Labour will defeat Lynne Featherstone next year?

  2. Well, don’t worry Justin. Some of us are so relatively right wing we’ll probably be kicked out of Sheffield Labour Students!

  3. A very good result for Lab and the Greens. Disappointing for us- given the candidates we had and the (expensive) and positive campaign we ran. Even when you factor in Harringay Ward (decent LD vote), they were 5th across the seat.

  4. David Lammy has thrown his hat into the ring to be Labour candidate for Mayor of London at the next election. He will be very tough to beat even if Tessa Jowell enters the fray. The BBC incorrectly said he’s the first candidate to declare – in fact the transport correspondent/expert Christian Wolmar had already done so.

  5. It would have been interesting had he stood in 2012 – Johnson’s margin of victory was small and I strongly suspect that a Lammy (or indeed an Oona King) rather than a Livingstone candidature would have nudged the Labour vote up over 50%.

    Johnson would then have been looking for a seat from that point onwards and would certainly have been back in Parliament by now.

  6. Labour can’t seriously be considering putting up someone as shallow as Lammy can they?

  7. Always nice to see Runnymede’s unbiased & considered opinions.
    Lammy is a former minister & a Privy Counsellor. He is articulate & knowledgeable & lacks the – how can I put it – somewhat snide edge which we have sometimes seen from his predecessor Ken Livingstone. There are certainly shallower people who have been linked with this position (is Eddie Izzard a person of great political depth for example?). I say this despite the fact that I am far from being a natural supporter of Lammy. His main opponent could end up being Tessa Jowell but I’m not sure she’s popular enough amongst London Labour Party members to beat him. Could be interesting if she puts her name forward. Diane Abbott still a possibility too.

  8. Surely Lammy, Abbott & Khan will be fishing in the same group of party members. If Jowell is the only other candidate she will surely come through the middle and win.

    For some unholy reason, the most qualified person Newsnight could wheel out to pay tribute to Robin Williams was Eddie Izzard. A bit like wheeling out Aiden Burley to pay tribute to Margaret Thatcher. He admitted that he had only met him once, and came on in full make up and drag. He looked like an exceptionally bad drag queen. The Tories must be praying that Labour are stupid and elitist enough to nominate him as mayoral candidate….I’m pretty sure they won’t though.

  9. “Surely Lammy, Abbott & Khan will be fishing in the same group of party members. If Jowell is the only other candidate she will surely come through the middle and win.”

    do they intend running a FPTP or AV ballot? I don’t think the Collins review specified it and I don’t recall the issue being mentioned after it.

  10. HH. David Lammy isn’t particularly on the left of the party and I don’t think ethnicity will be a main point of classification. Diane Abbott didn’t take many London seats in her quest to be leader even though some will have very high BME memberships.
    I like David Lammy. He is thoughtful and interesting – not at all shallow as his book emphasises. Very much a candidate for London too. I would vote for him.

  11. Well if left-wing Labour supporters think Lammy is OK then that must be OK I suppose.

    But seriously, while I dislike Ken Livingstone intensely I would see him as a far more formidable candidate.

  12. “I like David Lammy. He is thoughtful and interesting – not at all shallow as his book emphasises. Very much a candidate for London too. I would vote for him.”

    I quite like him too. But, though he has often spoken sense on the subject, he has painted himself into the “obsessed with race issues” corner, which is hard to get out of. Not unlike Abbott, though their views are quite different.

    Speaking of shallow potential candidates, surprised no-one has mentioned Chukka.

  13. I don’t mind David Lammy.

    He seems to live in the real world when many of his colleagues on all sides of the house do not and seems to know what is going on in ‘real’ London particularly surrounding youth and gang culture.

    He would be a good candidate choice, far better than Tessa Jowell anyway.

  14. Importantly, Lammy is by far the cleanest of the Labour candidates, scandal-wise.

    We know how dirty mayoral campaigns can get….I would expect Jowell to get absolutely slaughtered over her “ex-husband” and his Italian activities. Ditto Khan and his friendship with convicted terrorists, and Abbott’s schooling choices.

  15. There is the scandal of his embarrassing performance on Celebrity Mastermind though.

  16. “do they intend running a FPTP or AV ballot? I don’t think the Collins review specified it and I don’t recall the issue being mentioned after it.”

    Well I’ve never been involved in a single person to be nominated ballot in the Labour Party when more than 2 people have stood, which hasn’t been run under AV rules. Ican’t see this one not being so either.

    In the last two important such ballots, I was one of those whose final transfers ensured Harriet Harman and Ed Miliband were victorious once my more preferred candidates were eliminated. People like Hazel Blears, Peter Hain and Ed Balls didn’t get a preference at all.

    I would hope that someone from Labour’s London local government ranks will at least challenge the London Labour MPs for the nomination.

    Is it time to actually open a thread on Mayor of London 2016, as this would stop threads such as this going off at a tangent, and hopefully get any discussion in one place?

  17. David Lammy seems okay to me, the only candidate who doesn’t turn me off in some way or another.

    HH, I suspect Chuka is waiting for the Grand Prize.

  18. It would definitely not be FPTP. No Labour Party internal elections are, not even at constituency level. Jowell therefore wouldn’t be able to win on a split vote. Khan is a serious runner but the fact that even I forgot about him suggests that he does have a bit of a charisma deficit. Sorry Sadiq.

  19. I’d rather Labour roll Ken out again than Sadiq Khan or Chuka….I have a strong dislike for both of them and they come across as careerists and untrustworthy.

  20. I dislike Khan for the same reason I dislike Ed Balls and Jeremy Hunt. Nothing to do with politics; they just come across as smug even by the standards of politicians.

    Not sure schooling choices can count as a “scandal” HH, although don’t dispute that they would count against her as they did in 2010.

  21. According to the Sunday Times Sol Campbell is most aggrieved about a possible ‘mansion tax’.

  22. I find it odd when parties , for example here put a black MP up for a black british area. Unless he’s from here I can’t quite grip exactly why he does it.

    prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 64%
    Con- 13%
    Lib- 7%
    Green- 6%
    UKIP- 5%
    TUSC- 4%
    Others- 1%

    That’s a labour majority of 51%!

    I’m 90% sure the TUSC will stand here and if they do they should be pretty narrowly off when it comes to losing their deposit. Looking at their election results they are a quickly growing party , in 2015 they might even scrape 0.2% nationally, very good for a party as left as it is. I really do think the greens will be a whisker away from catching the liberal democrats come 2015. UKIP may or may not save their deposit. Not exactly their key demographic.

    Labour lead increases and conservatives drop. Soon this may be one of the safest, if not the safest labour seat in the country I think.

  23. Why would UKIP field a candidate here? It would be a complete waste of time.

  24. They want to appear as a party which wants to represent people nationwide. It’s the same reason Labour stand in Arundel and South Downs.

  25. “I find it odd when parties , for example here put a black MP up for a black british area. Unless he’s from here I can’t quite grip exactly why he does it.”

    And I can’t grip exactly what planet you’re posting from.

    Why don’t you keep your racism to yourself.

  26. David Lammy is from Tottenham anyway. Although this makes a change from the usual veiled comments about BME candidates not being ‘a good fit for the area’ when they’re selected for a mostly white seat.

  27. I am not racist I’m just very curious. Do they feel that he will in some way connect more with the people? All I’m saying is that WWC seats tend to have a white MP, muslims areas a muslim MP, and here a black gentleman for a area where the population is largely in that category.

    Is this proven that we are , in society somehow racist? Or is it something to do with understanding that areas needs, a muslim MP may understand a largely muslim area better for example?

    I understand that may have come across as bad, I’m just curious at to why exactly they do this?

  28. The above is simply not true. There are several very Muslim-influenced seats (and there aren’t that many of them in the whole of Britain, remember) which do not have Muslim MPs, such as Leicester S, Brent N, all of the East End except Bethnal Green & Bow, Bradford E & W (unless Galloway regards himself as a Muslim now), and plenty more in London. Nor are Adam Afriyie, Kwasi Kwarteng or Sam Gyimah represending seats with a significant black population. And so on. Best to stop digging when you’re in a hole.

  29. so when a party is deciding who will stand there on what basis do they decide?

  30. Depends on which party & which constituency, obviously.

  31. Worth noting that it’s generally believed that when Tottenham CLP originally selected David Lammy, most black voters backed a white candidate (Sharon Grant, Bernie Grant’s widow.) I’ve got no idea if that was actually the case, but I’ve heard it from multiple sources so it’s certainly a widely spread rumour.

  32. Constituencies with the most adults born in the EU (2011 census). Figure in brackets is rank for “new EU” (ie Eastern Europe)

    1. Tottenham 19.7%
    2. Kensington 17.8%
    3. City & Westminster 16.6%
    4. Ealing C & Acton 16.4%
    5. Chelsea & Fulham 15.8%
    6. Southgate 15.6%
    7. Leyton & Wanstead 15.1%
    8. Ealing N 15.1%
    9. Hornsey & Wood Gr 14.9%
    10. Walthamstow 14.8%
    11. Brent Central 14.5%
    12. West Ham 14.4%
    13. Westminster N 14.3%
    14. Finchley & Golders 14.2%
    15. Streatham 13.5%
    16.

  33. Constituencies with the most adults born in the EU (2011 census). Figure in brackets is rank for “new EU” (ie Eastern Europe)

    1. Tottenham 19.7% (1)
    2. Kensington 17.8% (145)
    3. City & Westminster 16.6% (110)
    4. Ealing C & Acton 16.4% (7)
    5. Chelsea & Fulham 15.8% (148)
    6. Southgate 15.6% (3)
    7. Leyton & Wanstead 15.1% (5)
    8. Ealing N 15.1% (2)
    9. Hornsey & Wood Gr 14.9% (12)
    10. Walthamstow 14.8% (4)
    11. Brent Central 14.5% (9)
    12. West Ham 14.4% (6)
    13. Westminster N 14.3% (103)
    14. Finchley & Golders Gn 14.2% (13)
    15. Streatham 13.5% (23)
    16. Hammersmith 13.4% (50)
    17. Hampstead & Kilburn 13.1% (63)
    18. Peterborough 12.8% (8)
    19. Vauxhall 12.6% (115)
    20. Hendon 12.5% (11)

  34. This is a very bold thread.

  35. Tottenham Conservatives select on Thursday

  36. Green candidates keep having this effect.

  37. Justin: are you one of those putting their name forward for the Conservative selection?

  38. Our candidate is Stefan Mrozinski – he won on the first ballot.

  39. “Justin: are you one of those putting their name forward for the Conservative selection?”

    Given his past I think hell would freeze over before CCHQ would allow Justin to be a parliamentary candidate – these days all selections have to be from the approved list, even in the most hopeless seats.

    It’s actually a shame as Justin deserves to represent his home patch having campaigned in such a fruitless place for 20 odd years.

  40. You say the nicest things! I’ve no interest in standing for Parliament. If I did, though, it would be a privilege to represent one’s home seat. Having been around, as you note, for 20 years (I’m still only 33!), it will come as no surprise that my interest in politics is waning.

    Stefan is formidable – I hope he can make some headway here. Conservatives are the only opposition to Labour in this constituency now.

  41. Yes, the Tories must be likely to come second next time, and on a good day for the Greens they might beat the Lib Dems into 3rd

  42. “Stefan Mrozinski will contest the Tottenham seat for the Conservatives at next year’s General Election. The corporate lawyer and grandson of a Polish immigrant selected to fight for the Conservatives in Tottenham in the General Election says locals feel “let down” by incumbent Labour MP David Lammy.”

    http://www.tottenhamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/i_will_put_neglected_tottenham_first_says_conservative_election_candidate_1_3860734

  43. The Green have a new candidate

  44. *Greens

  45. Do you have his name?

  46. Actually quite likely to be a “her” I realise.

  47. That’s a prime example of what I was talking about on the Lib Dem defence page. If a Labour equivalent took comparable action, the criticism would be that a party official shouldn’t do this. Action would be taken – probably removal as constituency chair, though it would be handled relatively quietly and it wouldn’t automatically end his involvement in the party, as there is a tacit acknowledgement that tactical votes matter.

    By contrast, its difficult to see circumstances in which this guy is allowed to remain in the Conservative party in any capacity.

  48. I sincerely hope I’m wrong on that last part by the way – politics is severely short of pragmatists, and has fewer and fewer who are willing to do their bit for the party they believe in in ultra safe opposition seats. But such is the nature of the broader party that I don’t think they’ll take an even-handed approach.

  49. Chris Hornet,

    I’m actually relatively sure that campaigning for another party (excepting perhaps the SDLP) will get you booted out of the Labour Party fairly quickly. Not sure what the situation is for Labour members in Buckingham.

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