Tottenham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5090 (12%)
Labour: 28654 (67.3%)
Lib Dem: 1756 (4.1%)
Green: 3931 (9.2%)
UKIP: 1512 (3.6%)
TUSC: 1324 (3.1%)
Others: 291 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 23564 (55.4%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Haringey council area.

Main population centres: Tottenham, Tottenham Hale, Haringay, West Green, Seven Sisters, Bruce Grove, Northumberland Park.

Profile: A cosmopolitian, inner city seat in the borough of Haringey. Tottenham has a large ethnic minority population, around a fifth of residents are black, there is a large muslim population. The percentage of white residents understates the variation of this seat, since that itself includes Russians, Cypriots, Irish, eastern European and Jewish communties. The constituency includes the Broadwater Farm estate, notorious for the 1985 riots where PC Keith Blacklock was hacked to death. The estate underwent a massive facelift following the riots and is no longer a crime blackspot, but other areas of the seat like Tottenham Green continue to be blighted by crime, guns and drugs and in 2011 the seat was once again the epicentre of widespread rioting after the shooting of Mark Duggan.

Politics: Formerly represented by the colourful Labour left-winger Bernie Grant, notorious for having allegedly described the Broadwater Farm riots as the police getting "a bloody good hiding", the by-election following his death in 2000 was won by another black MP, David Lammy. Tottenham is a reliably Labour seat, along with its predecessor seats it has returned Labour MPs since 1935, though it was briefly represented by the Conservatives when the sitting Labour MP Alan Browne defected to them in 1962. At a local level Haringey council is split directly down the middle, the western wards that fall under Hornsey and Wood Green retain some Lib Dem strength, the eastern wards in this seat are solidly Labour.


Current MP
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) Born 1972, Tottenham. Educated at the Kings School, Peterborough and SOAS. Barrister. First elected as MP for Tottenham in 2000 by-election. Under-Secretary of State for health 2002-2003, for constitutional affairs 2003-2005, for culture, media and sport 2005-2007 and for Innovation, Universities and Skills 2007-2008, Minister of State for Higher Education 2008-2010. Served briefly as a member of the London Assembly, but stood down almost immediately having been elected as MP for Tottenham in the 2000 by-election.
Past Results
2010
Con: 6064 (15%)
Lab: 24128 (59%)
LDem: 7197 (18%)
GRN: 980 (2%)
Oth: 2318 (6%)
MAJ: 16931 (42%)
2005
Con: 4278 (14%)
Lab: 18343 (58%)
LDem: 5309 (17%)
GRN: 1457 (5%)
Oth: 2277 (7%)
MAJ: 13034 (41%)
2001
Con: 4401 (14%)
Lab: 21317 (67%)
LDem: 3008 (10%)
GRN: 1443 (5%)
Oth: 1432 (5%)
MAJ: 16916 (54%)
1997
Con: 5921 (16%)
Lab: 26121 (69%)
LDem: 4064 (11%)
Oth: 1598 (4%)
MAJ: 20200 (54%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
STEFAN MROZINSKI (Conservative)
DAVID LAMMY (Labour) See above.
TURHAN OZEN (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Middle East Technical University. Software engineer. Contested London region 2014 European election.
TARIQ SAEED (UKIP)
DEE SEARLE (Green)
TANIA MAHMOOD (Peace)
JENNY SUTTON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 153 Responses on “Tottenham”
  1. The irony which none of the news stories have mentioned is that Justin was a member of the Labour party for a period during the early Blair years….to my knowledge he has never belonged to the Lib Dems. I don’t see why it was his business to butt into Hornsey & Wood Green given that his official capacity is (was) in Tottenham – I suspect that will prompt the party to react quite harshly

  2. Given that most Tory voters in Hornsey & Wood Green probably have a university degree it’s debatable whether they needed to be informed about tactical voting to stop Labour winning the seat.

  3. MrNameless – that’s true. Labour expelled many members in Liverpool who supported rival candidates. Indeed, until around a decade ago, I’m told Labour even expelled a few who didn’t vote in the local elections.

  4. Expulsion of ordinary Conservative members is extremely unusual. Many routinely support UKIP in euro elections quite openly without any consequences – this tolerance goes back a long way and is partly because the Tories have traditionally been association based with little central power. I recall when I was an association officer in Beckenham many local members refused to vote for Steve Norris and some even voted for Livingstone instead.

  5. don’t know what Justin was thinking of. It seems bizarre…he’s a smart guy.

  6. Could you please update the tania Mahmood detail and picture
    Thanks

  7. Any news about what has happened to Justin?

  8. I am standing as candidate for general election in 07 May 2015.
    Please could you update my photo and other necessary infomaion
    Thanks
    Tania Mahmood

  9. If Jim Murphy is defeated in East Renfrewshire how likely is it that he would put himself forward and be selected as Labour candidate for Mayor of London?

  10. Prediction:

    1. Lab
    2. Cons
    3. Greens
    4. TUSC
    5. LD
    6. UKIP
    7. Peace

    Almost 100 Conservative posters up across Tottenham. As you would expect, quite a few Labour. TUSC flying posting everywhere (inc the inside of telephone booths). One or two Green posters. Not seen a single UKIP or LD poster here. The Peace candidate states she’s doing her A-Levels. Wonder if she’s actually 21?

  11. Justin

    Did they kick you out of the party in the end….or are you just still suspended? Seems that Featherstone is likely to lose despite your intervention so was it worth ruining your chairmanship for?

    Anyone putting up a Tory poster in Tottenham is brave indeed…it’s as likely to attract a brick through the window as a poster saying “paedophile lives here”.

  12. I am still suspended. Have no regrets, and would do it all over again.

    That’s an outrageous comparison. Never known a brick to go through a window supporting a party, least of all here in Tottenham. You might want to delete that ‘contribution’ which is wrong and offensive. @TottenhamTories (on Twitter) have been photographing their posters and tweeting them

  13. From the fastness of his rural idyll in Sussex, Hemmelig imagines Tottenham to be a suburb of LA overrun by the Cripps gang.

  14. Really? That where he live? Unbelievable.

  15. LOL. I think you’re falling for James’s sarcasm Justin. Why is it “unbelievable” that a Tory inclined person would live in Sussex. It is also scarcely believable that you could put up Tory posters all over Broadwater Farm and the like without getting some serious hostility. If that’s what you’re saying I just don’t believe you.

    You must have known the likely reaction to your letter even though everything in it was essentially correct.

  16. Broadwater Farm comes under the West Green Ward. In last year’s council elections, two of the three Tories from that ward lived on the Farm. And, yes, there are poster up on Broadwater Farm (3),

    Yes, I did. So, too, did Tim Montgomery when he endorsed Clegg (for Hallam) in his Times column. Coalition – which is here to stay – leads to that. Time for PR to end wasted votes.

  17. You’re a brave guy, but not cut out for politics (that’s probably a compliment).

    I agree with you on PR, as it happens.

  18. I am looking for seats that were help by Labour in 1935 but by the Conservatives in 1983. There are remarkably few. However, this seat was gained by Labour in 1935 and lost by htem to the Conservatives in 1983.

    Does anybody know of other seats with a similar electoral history?

    It is interesting to see that whilst this seat has changed drastically in character over the years, more than once, the actual consitutency has existed since 1918.

  19. Tottenham had a Labour majority of 9396 in 1983.

  20. Frederic: Dewsbury is one example. It had a Lab maj of 5,268 in 1935 and Con maj of 2,086 in 1983.

  21. David Lammy ws on the radio today advocating name-blind applications to universitities. I wouldn’t disagree with him over that. However, he seemed to overlook the point that it is now poor white working class males who are most disadvantaged when it comes to university applications.

    In my opinion, Lammy’s whole orientation was London specific. For instance, most poor people outside London do not live in tower blocks but in run-down inner-city areas and sink ex-council estates.

    Labour will have to do better at advocating improvements for the whole nation if they are to win in 2020. Lammy does not seem the person to help lead them in that direction.

  22. A London politician failing to understand life beyond London- what a surprise.

    As to Frederic’s query the West Riding division of Keighley would be another example of a seat held or won by Labour in 1935 but lost to the Conservatives in 1983.

  23. Bristol East is another example- held comfortably enough by Sir Stafford Cripps in 1935 and famously lost by Tony Benn in 1983 though I suspect the boundaries were rather different.

  24. Nelson and Colne would probably count as another example- a Labour gain in 1935, but Conservative in 1983 in the new form of Pendle. Although Pendle’s boundaries friendlier to the Tories than Nelson and Colne’s were the Conservatives would still have won Nelson and Colne in 1983, as indeed they did in 1979.

  25. Lammy has been fined £5,000 by the ICO for his team’s spam calls promoting his failed London Mayoral candidacy bid.

  26. Whatever happened to Justin, here?

    Citing Tim M probably won’t help – as he isn’t a Tory Party member now either. I wonder if some of them will re-join now Cameron has resigned.

  27. Airheads like Lammy still don;t get it, do they?

  28. FWIW I’m hearing through quite a few sources that a very large (how large is anyone’s guess) number of Leave voters already regret the decision. Splitting into three categories they are…

    Those that voted Leave, didn’t think the economic consequences would be so severe and now regret it (these folks will probably calm down if the current shocks are just a blip)

    Those who voted Leave as a protest for one of many reasons, didn’t actually think it would happen and as soon as they woke up to the result regretted it.

    Those that voted Leave based on some of the claims made by the Leave camp which have now totally unravelled (for example Farage’s admission re the 350 million for the NHS claim or Hannan’s admission on immigration) feel totally duped and now regret voting he way they did.

    Coupled with the Parliament petition to re-run the referendum garnering more than 2 million signatures and rapidly rising (by far the most popular in the sites history) this all has the making of one unholy mess and frankly Leave have only got themselves to blame. Farage himself said if it was 52% for Remain it wouldn’t be the end of the issue but he expects 52% for Leave to settle things?

    Who can guess how this will play out…

  29. Rivers10 – I think Remain voters problem is most say they don’t know anyone who voted Leave.

  30. Maxim
    No who doesn’t what?

    Lancs Observer
    Well personally I don’t know any Remain supporter who has said that (although undoubtedly some have especially in London) I don’t think anyone’s saying the result was rigged I think the issue is Leave ran the campaign on several key platforms and they U turned on most as soon as the results started rolling in. This is a sure fire way to make a lot of angry and frustrated people even angrier.

    As for the closeness of the result this is what really irks me and many others. Had it been the other way round we know full well Leave would have carried on going about the issue (many figures from the Leave camp admitted as such) and they certainly would have got concessions to try and appease them. But we the Remain side are expected to just role over and let the Leave camp tear apart what we believe in cos of their narrow victory? No a single concession for us? It doesn’t wash by many people.

  31. I know people who voted leave and I know people who voted to remain.

  32. Rivers10 – what concession would you like?

  33. Well personally I would like some watertight guaranties to preserve some of the “red tape” that’s supposedly heading for a bonfire like the working time directive, guarantied maternity pay, union rights and remaining bound by the European convention on human rights.

  34. I can’t see a majority for any of those changes in the Commons. I’m surprised you believed our own Party’s hype. A bit like ’24 hrs to save the NHS’ in 1992, 2005, 2010 and 2015.

  35. Lans Observer
    There may not be support for it yet but if the new Tory leader has a honeymoon period and they hold a snap election I believe an increased Con majority is likely with a lot of moderate Tory MP’s (like Soubry being discussed on the Broxtowe thread) bowing out. This would leave a more right wing Tory party free to in some parts water down in other parts totally abolish some of the above regulations.

    But this is beyond the point, for many of us the EU was a safety net, however bad things got our government could only go so far cos EU law stopped them going any further. That’s very likely gone now, we may not lose these rights this parliament or the next parliament or ever even but the risk will always be there hanging over our heads given that there is nothing enshrining it.

  36. Yep, we’ll have you eating grass soon

  37. Brave of Lammy to set himself against more than 17 million voters.

  38. David Lammy might be safe to vote again EU exit in Parliament. However his colleagues in the northern parts of England and in Wales would be guaranteeing a Scottish style defeat if they did so. Could the Labour MP for, say, Doncaster vote against 70% of his constituents after the referendum?

  39. But one presumes that prominent Leave MP Kaye Hoey representing Vauxhall (Lambeth 79% Remain) is all fine and dandy voting for Brexit…

  40. Do you suppose Lammy knows where Doncaster is?

  41. Of course he does

  42. GT: what about Tory MPs? Must be tricky for Matt Warman, who stuck his flag in the remain camp, but whose local area Boston broke 76% for leave. At the other end of the scale is Zac Goldsmith, son of the founder of the Referendum Party, while Richmond-upon-Thames went 69% for remain.

  43. lots of Remain Tories will now magically become leavers

  44. Do you think Corbyn can survive?

    I hear the vote of no confidence letter is gathering pace. Is it just 50 MPs they need?

  45. Only if things calm down, if Brexit turns out to be as colossal a mistake as it looks like it is I imagine the opposite, many Brexiters will suddenly declare themselves as long standing supporters of the EU.

  46. just to remind everyone aboit Lammy’s intellectual capacity

    Q ‘who succeeded Henry VIII’

    A ‘Henry VII’

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsR4Nx-ELgc

  47. But surely if Brexit turns out to be a huge mistake it puts Corbyn in even more jeopardy than if it turns out to be a success. The main reason given to topple him at the moment is he was only lukewarm for remain and completely failed to convinced Labour WWC strongholds in the north to back remain, in fact there was a unprecedented turnout of them for leave. I do think this is unfair to blame him though as anyone who thought he would resonate with these kind of voters was always kidding themselves…

  48. P – I think Rivers10 was responding to Runnymede rather than my Q.

  49. David Lammy on how he thinks parliament should reject the referendum result:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jcATmvGiDQ

  50. So it turns out David “ignore the referendum” Lammy has one of the worst attendance records for debates on Europe in parliament:

    http://order-order.com/2016/08/30/mps-demanding-parliament-votes-brexit-absent-eu-debates/

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