Tooting

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22421 (41.9%)
Labour: 25263 (47.2%)
Lib Dem: 2107 (3.9%)
Green: 2201 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1537 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 2842 (5.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Wandsworth council area.

Main population centres: Tooting, Earlsfield, Balham.

Profile: A traditionally working class area, Tooting is the more Labour inclined part of the constituency and has a significant ethnic minority community. In both Earlsfield and Balham though attractive Victorian housing and good transport links have seen house prices forced up as middle class professionals move in. The seat includes Wandsworth Common.

Politics: The most Labour inclined of the three seats that make up the Conservative`s "flagship borough" of Wandsworth. While Wandsworth is a solidly Conservative borough at a local level, all three seats fell to Labour in 1997. Putney was regained by the Tories in 2005, Battersea in 2010, Tooting has remained Labour.


Current MP
SADIQ KHAN (Labour) Born 1970, London. Educated at Ernest Bevin School. Former Solicitor specialising in Human Rights and former Chair of Liberty. Wandsworth councillor 1994-2006. First elected as MP for Tooting in 2005. PPS to Jack Straw 2007, government whip 2007-08, Under-Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government 2008-09, Minister of State for Transport 2009-10, Shadow Justice Secretary 2010-2015. Managed Ed Miliband`s successful leadership campaign in 2010. Will contest London Mayoralty 2016.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19514 (39%)
Lab: 22038 (44%)
LDem: 7509 (15%)
UKIP: 624 (1%)
Oth: 970 (2%)
MAJ: 2524 (5%)
2005*
Con: 12533 (30%)
Lab: 17914 (43%)
LDem: 8110 (20%)
GRN: 1695 (4%)
Oth: 1316 (3%)
MAJ: 5381 (13%)
2001
Con: 9932 (26%)
Lab: 20332 (54%)
LDem: 5583 (15%)
GRN: 1744 (5%)
MAJ: 10400 (28%)
1997
Con: 12505 (27%)
Lab: 27516 (60%)
LDem: 4320 (9%)
Oth: 935 (2%)
MAJ: 15011 (33%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAN WATKINS (Conservative) Educated at Tiffin Grammar and Cambridge University. Entrepreneur.
SADIQ KHAN (Labour) See above.
PHILIP LING (Liberal Democrat) Born Leamington Spa. Educated at Bath University. Contested Bromsgrove 2010.
PRZEMEK SKWIRCZYNSKI (UKIP) Banker and economist.
ESTHER OBIRI-DARKO (Green) Teacher.
Links
Comments - 755 Responses on “Tooting”
  1. You may have missed it but YouGov’s London poll a few days ago suggested a 2% swing from Lab to Con compared to 2015. Of course London being so diverse politically this will mask some local variations, but I would expect Tooting to have a lower swing than the London average.

    And London polling has generally proved to be pretty accurate, both for the 2015 GE and the Mayoral election last year.

  2. Is that true? I think Labour got 3.5% swing in London in 2015 when they were predicted to get a 5% swing and win seats like Finchley and Golders Green.

  3. Yes. You Gov did 3 or 4 London polls in the months leading up to May 2015, and they typically showed swings to Labour of about 4%.

  4. So see for example, this from Feb 2015 with a 3% swing in London:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9269

  5. And this in March 2015, with a 4.5% London Swing:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/date/2015/03

    It always surprised me that in the ‘inquest’ into the 2015 polling debacle the fact that the same methodology seemed to get it right in London seemed to be lost.

  6. Thanks James E

    London is a smaller population to poll I suppose.

    Also I don’t suppose the Coalition of Choas swung as many votes in London

  7. Incidentally, I think this is the seat with the smallest Labour majority where the bookies still make them favourites to hold.

    Lab 8/15
    Con 5/4

    There are several with 15-20% majorities where the opposite applies.

  8. I assume you’re talking about the 2015 majority rather than the substantially larger by-election majority.

  9. Im door knocking regularly in this constituency for the Conservatives.

    My feeling is that our vote is holding up well, with remarkably little leakage to the Lib Dems and no leakage to Labour. What few kippers were around tend to be moving over, and we are getting a few (but not many) direct switchers from Labour, mostly in the cheaper solidly Labour end of the seat, most especially Graveney ward, which with a lot of (albeit lower end) period housing and good access to the Northern Line is beginning to attract a better demographic for us.

    The one thing which gives me some real hope is that there are previously solid Labour supporters, particularly those with patchy turnout history, becoming waverers, who don’t like Corbyn and feel deeply unenthused for Labour, but are just not going to ever vote Tory. We are hoping that means they might go LD, Green, or just not turn out at all.

    I suspect if Labour get their vote out, they’ll win. But thats far from certain. Allin-Khan knows that she is in a dog-fight for her survival.

    Usual dodgy Labour posters in business activity going on in the south of the seat.

  10. That seems to be what everyone has been saying up and down the country from various parties. I’m beginning to wonder whether there is any significant change in the vote despite the polls. I suppose bit will just come down to turnout. I haven’t personally spoken to anyone so far in the campaign who has anything to say about Corbyn but many of my colleagues have but they’ve said the leaked manifesto has had an overwhelmingly good response.

  11. Matt
    I’ve sadly came across more than a few people who don’t like Corbyn however the response in every instance was something to the effect of “I’ll still definitely be voting Labour” either cos of the local Lab candidate, our policies, loyalty to Labour, hatred of the Tories/May or just cos their giving us the benefit of the doubt.

    I suppose the risk is that these people might not bother voting come the day, we’ll have to wait and see.

  12. There certainly seems to be quite a personal vote. I was out in Leicester West and Derby North last week and Kendall & Chris Williamson have quite a sizable personal vote

  13. ”That seems to be what everyone has been saying up and down the country from various parties. I’m beginning to wonder whether there is any significant change in the vote despite the polls. I suppose bit will just come down to turnout.”

    Well even if Labour’s vote share flatlines they party will still lose a lot of seats due to the UKIP vote going Tory. Sure in this scenario Tooting would be held but most Labour held Tory targets have much larger UKIP votes than Tooting.

  14. ”I was out in Leicester West and Derby North last week and Kendall & Chris Williamson have quite a sizable personal vote”

    Kendall it wouldn’t surprise me but I would be shocked if Williamson’s personal vote wasn’t anything but negative and I would have thought it likely he cost Labour the seat in the first place. Apparently he is a rather arrogant, unpleasant character that tends to alienate people he meets even those he politically agrees with.

    Also re. Derby apparently Labour activists are being sent to defend Beckett in Derby South leaving Williamson and Momentum to pester the people of Derby North (where they’ll almost certainly lose anyway).

  15. Looking down Sadiq Khan’s Twitter it is astonishing how almost exclusively defensive Lab’s London campaign remains. Understandable at the start of the campaign, but surely they should now be transferring some resources to Con-held seats.

  16. Final Prediction

    Labour: 28,019
    Conservative: 24,770
    Lib Dem: 3,621
    Green: 2,245

    maj: 3,249

  17. 10.6% swing from 2015. wow

  18. Cons are ANNIHILATED in Tooting. Labour’s share goes up to 60%!!!!!!!!!

  19. There were signs of this at the mayoral election last year and the by-election. The Cons best chance here was 2010.

  20. Isn’t it really the case that many commenters on this site wear blue-tinted glasses, and simply were not able to understand the different views of a large part of the electorate: people (not just a tiny number) who actually found Jeremy Corbyn a welcome change from other politicians, and who have been repelled by the Tories and the hectoring, grinding attitude of the anti-Europeans? The near-50% who voted to Remain felt excluded from government policy, not heard or valued in any balanced response or the approach to the EU which resulted. Even now, with a clutch of what had been London marginals producing a 60% Labour vote, there is zero understanding of what might have created this remarkable and resounding rejection of the May government’s policy.

  21. “Is it the case that many commenters on this site wear blue-tinted glasses, and simply were not able to understand the different views of a large part of the electorate: people (not just a tiny number) who actually found Jeremy Corbyn a welcome change from other politicians.. ”

    Look at the predictions here & the polls!!

    “FINAL PREDICTIONS:
    ALEX F / DEEPTHROAT
    CON 324 LAB 251 LD 10 SNP 43. CON MAJ: NONE
    JACK SHELDON:
    CON 364 LAB 211 LD 12 SNP 41. CON MAJ: 78
    H HEMMELIG:
    CON c. 360 Lab c. 210 LD 9 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 70
    TORY;
    Con 348 Lab 225 LD 9 SNP 45. CON MAJ: 52
    WREATHY:
    CON: 370 LAB: 200 LD: 8 SNP 43. CON MAJ: 90
    Paul Krisnamurty (Betfair)
    CON 366 LABOUR 208 LD 6 SNP 47. CON MAJ: 82
    SURREYMANC:
    CON 384 Lab 190 LD 5
    PLOPWELLIAN TORY:
    CON 390 LAB 180 SNP 42 LDEM 12
    SURREY POLITICS:
    CON 368 Lab 213

    Final Con leads by pollster:
    BMG: +13
    ICM: +12 ComRes: +10
    Panelbase: +8 Opinium: +7
    Survation: +1
    June 8th, 2017 at 2.23pm”

  22. Alex F, I think you’re making my point for me. Practically everyone overstated the number of Tory seats by 40, 50, 70…… And understated the Labour number. On thread after thread, the assumption was made that Tories would win whatever Labour seat was being commented on. People posted that ‘they’d been out canvassing for the Tories and it was in the bag’, only to see a Labour vote share of 60% in the London seat in question….. The majority of comments on this site did not reflect the underlying real situation.

  23. Yeah everyone apart from me. DEEPTHROAT strikes again. 😉

  24. Kudos, as our American step-siblings might say. 🙂

  25. Let’s talk about Uber.

    The really weird thing about this story is that as far as I can tell nobody, on either side of the political divide, is taking the official justification for TfL’s decision – that Uber has compromised passengers’ safety – at face value. According to the agenda setters, it’s all about the cabbies. Some people, I think, aren’t even aware of the official line, though I’ve seen at least one commentator acknowledging it before rejecting it out of hand.

    So what’s actually going on here? Has an opportunistic left pounced to establish a false narrative? Or is TfL’s statement complete cobblers?

  26. Is this about Uber losing their licence? Not that they ever apply for licences anyway.

  27. Okay, so looking more into how the story has developed, here’s what I think has happened over the past few hours:

    – TfL releases statement about Uber losing their licence.
    – Paul Mason et al declare “victory for the workers!” in an attempt to spin this into something more than it is.
    – Their insurgent rhetoric backfires as it is in turn jumped on by the right, and branded as a protectionist measure which is costing thousands of Uber drivers their livelihoods.
    – Finally some sensible people crawl out of the woodwork to explain this is a fairly temporary dispute over safety standards, and it is very likely Uber’s licence will be renewed immediately after it tightens up its driver checks.
    – However, nobody is really listening to them.

  28. Hopefully it will be temporary.

    I fail to see how reducing the choice available to the consumer as being a positive.

    It would be useful if Labour MPs who have campaigned for this like Wes streeting, could confirm whether they’ve received any funding from anti-Uber unions, or not.

  29. ….and conversely, if any MP or councillor who have lobbied pro-Uber would say if they’ve had any support from Uber or any related party.

  30. Uber is a non dependent employer so many of its private hire drivers are self employed rather than directly employed by Uber.

    Uber have monopolised most the market by subsiding their fares by 40% driving many of its competition out of business limiting many people’s choices.

    Wes Streeting isnt exactly a favourite of the unions

  31. The decision to rein in Uber has a fair bit of tacit support on the right as well as the left. Nigel Farage voiced his support today, and it is well known that Boris tried to do this as mayor but was overruled by Cameron and Osborne. I see nothing wrong with the philosophy that Uber should play by the established rules. They have also contributed substantially to the worsening traffic congestion and pollution situation in London….since they came on the scene the number of taxis has increased by six figures, many of them polluting diesels.

  32. I’m in favour of the decision as long as the workers are given plenty of opportunity to retain their ability to earn their livelihoods. I strongly favour a co-operative replacement for Uber. And I don’t think it’s temporary at all.

  33. Unless they manage to get this overturned on appeal, I also doubt it will be temporary. Quite simply, protectionism is back in fashion. Some Corbynite ideas are going to be enacted even though the man himself may still be unlikely to be PM.

  34. There have been a few a decisions that have gone against companies whove benefited from tjis gig economy. Sports Direct lost their dispute with employees over zero hour contracts and Deliveroo lost their dispute with employees over replacing their basic salary with commision.

  35. Just spotted your comment from during the election campaign Matt. You campaigned for Chris Williamson & Liz Kendall, so you clearly are embracing the Labour brand in almost its full range of political alignments! I have met the former, but never the latter.

  36. I lived in Leicester during the campaign and was working in Braunstone when I called the Chair of DMU Labour who told me Liz was doorknocking in New Parks so i biked it accross the park to make it in time. I might not agree with everything Liz says but she recieved a very positive reception on te doorstep.

    Momentum were doing car shares to Corby and Derby North. The campaign was amazing so efficient and so msmy people. Chris was very amicable and obviously cares alot sbout the commu ity

  37. One of the broadcasting companies went to Leicester West at the beginning of the campaign, as it was a seat the Tories were hoping to gain on the basis of the early polls, looking for direct switchers from Labour to Conservative. They were unable to find any at all, so they couldn’t do the feature they intended, apparently.

  38. The Leicester Mercury did something similiar in which the Conservative candidate, the unfortnately named Jack Hickey, told the Mercury the usual about Strong and Stable leadership for the Brexit negotitations but every resident was dead confident Liz would be returned

  39. Rosena Allin-Khan has endorsed a second/people’s vote. She is currently the shadow sport minster but it be hard to see if she can stay in her post as it is not yet Labour’s official position.

  40. It might become Labour’s official position when they realise that the government losing the vote next Tuesday isn’t immediately going to result in its collapse and an immediate general election.

  41. The Lib Dems have been criticised by People’s Vote for an amendment on a 2nd Ref. They must be confident Labour will back a 2nd Ref after Tuesday.

  42. I’m not sure a 2nd referendum would pass even if the Labour leadership backed it. There are probably more Caroline Flint types prepared to vote against one than Tory rebels in favour.

  43. Yes. I reckon at most a 2nd ref would get up to 298 votes at the most

  44. It is virtually impossible for a second referendum to pass unless the government of the day backed it.

  45. It is virtually impossible for a No Deal to pass unless the government of the day backed it.

    They don’t and even if they did, new deal doesn’t have the numbers in Parliament

    I still maintain a 2nd referendum, although unlikely, is more probable than a ‘No Deal’ Brexit

  46. Sure, there is nowhere near a majority in favour of no deal. But there doesn’t need to be. If parliament doesn’t actively decide to do something else, no deal happens by default.

    I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve said this.

  47. And the Next Tory Pm may well be someone who openly backs no deal – as it seems to be popular among the tory grassroots even if the majority of their mp’s would prefer a deal of some sorts.

  48. A50 will be revoked before we’d default no deal

  49. Managed no deal is said to be backed by Leadsom, Javid and Hunt- where individual deals are done on stuff like aviation and citizen rights but no wider deal .

  50. “Also re. Derby apparently Labour activists are being sent to defend Beckett in Derby South leaving Williamson and Momentum to pester the people of Derby North (where they’ll almost certainly lose anyway).” – Pepperminttea before the 2017 election

    The Derby N prediction was way off, but thankfully CW is now history there. (And that’s a prediction I’m confident about.) I didn’t know Labour were worried about Beckett. The previously proposed boundary changes made her look vulnerable.

    Tooting may be gentrifying and trendy in parts, but it’s not the right kind of gentrification to help the Tories. Interestingly, Fleabag’s sister Claire said she lived here in the TV series. And the two characters are clearly part of the established middle class, if not upper middle class. Phoebe Waller-Bridge is actually related to a Tory MP, a fact I imagine she doesn’t want to remind people of. I don’t recall the area where her character lives being mentioned, but according to the Telegraph, “the majority of the show is set and filmed in Dartmouth Park, within the NW5 postcode of Camden.” The exterior of the character’s home is on Laurier Road (Holborn & St Pancras), round the corner from Ed Miliband’s house. The article says the production team also considered Richmond and Barnet as locations.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)