Thurrock

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16692 (33.7%)
Labour: 16156 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 644 (1.3%)
UKIP: 15718 (31.7%)
Independent: 79 (0.2%)
Others: 275 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.1%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: South East, Essex. Part of the Thurrock council area.

Main population centres: Grays, Purfleet, Tilbury, South Ockendon, Chadwell St Mary.

Profile: An industrial and largely working class seat on the Thames Estuary, at the far southern corner of Essex. The seat contains the major container port of Tilbury and Tilbury power station and the industry of Purfleet, which is home to Esso and Unilever factories. It is a white working class seat, but also has more affluent areas like the recent Chafford Hundred development near the large Lakeside shopping centre. The seat also contains the northern end of the Dartford Crossing over the Thames.

Politics: This used to be a safe Labour seat, but has trended towards the Conservatives over the years. It was first won by the Tories in 1987, but held for just a single term before being won back by Labour. It became a marginal by 2005, and in 2010 it was won by the Conservatives on the narrowest of margins. In 2015 it was a primary target for UKIP, resulting in one of the closest three-way marginals in the country, with just two percent of the vote separating first and third place.


Current MP
JACKIE DOYLE-PRICE (Conservative) Born 1969, Sheffield. Educated at Notre Dame school and Durham University. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 2005. First elected as MP for Thurrock in 2010. Government whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16869 (37%)
Lab: 16777 (37%)
LDem: 4901 (11%)
BNP: 3618 (8%)
Oth: 3656 (8%)
MAJ: 92 (0%)
2005*
Con: 14261 (33%)
Lab: 20636 (47%)
LDem: 4770 (11%)
BNP: 2526 (6%)
Oth: 1499 (3%)
MAJ: 6375 (15%)
2001
Con: 11124 (30%)
Lab: 21121 (57%)
LDem: 3846 (10%)
UKIP: 1271 (3%)
MAJ: 9997 (27%)
1997
Con: 12640 (27%)
Lab: 29896 (63%)
LDem: 3843 (8%)
Oth: 833 (2%)
MAJ: 17256 (37%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JACKIE DOYLE-PRICE (Conservative) See above.
POLLY BILLINGTON (Labour) Born 1967. Educated at Sussex University. Head of communications for Citizens Advice, former BBC journalist and special advisor to Ed Miliband.
RHODRI JAMIESON-BALL (Liberal Democrat)
TIM AKER (UKIP) Born Aveley. Educated at Nottingham University. Head of UKIP policy unit. Contested MEP for East of England since 2014.
ABA KRISTILOLU (All People)
JAMIE BARNES (CISTA)
DANIEL MUNYAMBU (No description) Born Kenya. Basildon councillor since 2011, originally elected as Labour.
Links
Comments - 640 Responses on “Thurrock”
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  1. The result here in 1992 was very very close between Labour and the Conservatives. I wonder had the defence of Basildon not been such an important priority whether Thurrock could have been held by Janman for another term until 1997.

  2. This is the sort of seat where Ukip could increase its vote especially as the BNP is in disarray.

    If Labour can attract back BNP voters and Tories lose voters to Ukip that could be decisive.

    Longer term Thurrock is likely to experience the demographic changes that took place in Barking making it ever safer for Labour.

  3. ‘Longer term Thurrock is likely to experience the demographic changes that took place in Barking making it ever safer for Labour.’

    I’d say in the longer term this seat is trending the other way. It used to be a safe Labour seat – with the party hanging on even in their nadir years like 1959 and 1983

    Along with Cannock, Dewsbury and Ipswich, this was arguably one of the Tories best results in 2010

    The only problem for the Tories is that South Essex as a whole has proved fertile territory for other right-wing groups like KIP, English Democrats and the BNP

  4. No-one doubts that long-term Thurrock has swung to the Conservatives. This is obvious from election results since the 1975 by-election. However, in very recent years the constituency has started to see a significant increase in its (once tiny) non-white population. That’s what Glen is talking about. Obviously Labour has to take the seat first (which I think my party probably will), and then we will see if it does start to trend Labour in the years that follow.

  5. I’m not too sure what way the seat is trending. Demographics would suggest moving back over to Labour at the moment but this may change. I imagine it will be marginal for some time with both Labour and Conservatives competitive both locally and nationally. Tim is right that South Essex is proving fertile ground for right wing groups which is hampering Conservative chances in this particular seat.

  6. The priority for Labour will be to get the newly-arrived African population registered to vote. Their numbers increased from about 1,000 to 9,000 between 2001 and 2011 and so are probably over 10,000 now. Turnout probably wouldn’t be very high but it could make the difference in such a tight marginal.

  7. I see this seat undergoing similar demographic change to Barking only 15 years behind.

    The pace of change may be slower. No Ford factory to close. I also expect immigration to reduce because our economy is struggling.

  8. Labour’s got this in the bag. Even if the Tories get the most votes, in the worst of all worlds, Thurrock will go. Dan Byles and Jackie Doyle Price are burnt toast.

  9. Do you have an IQ above 100?

  10. Bob – come clean you are Renie Anjeh aren’t you?

  11. I thought he was Euan Blair or Georgia Gould.

  12. Iam an Bob Wilson.

  13. The former Arsenal goalie?

  14. No, funny that. I happen to support Arsenal anyway.

  15. he’s tony blah or gordon brown ha ha

  16. @Bob is Renie Anjeh – private boarding school student who is a Tory in denial. He spat his dummy out in Labourlist when his favoured candidate did not win the Labour nomination to be PPC for Bristol West

  17. I think this could be one of UKIP’s best seats in 2015

  18. I’d just assumed that Bob was Bob Crowe.:)

  19. I always thought Bob was a Tory plant – designed to discredit Labour

  20. “@Bob is Renie Anjeh – private boarding school student who is a Tory in denial. He spat his dummy out in Labourlist when his favoured candidate did not win the Labour nomination to be PPC for Bristol West”
    Apparently so everyone. I am a Tory in denial. I am a private boarding school student and I spat out my dummy on LabourList when his favoured candidate didn’t win in Bristol West. I am Renie Anjeh!
    Gimme a break, I never went to boarding school, I went to my local comp. I supported Thangham Debonnaire in Bristol West, because Gemma Tumelty only joined Labour Students to get the NUS selection. I am New Labour, through and through not some Labour Students kid who jumped on the bandwagon! I mean jeez, who is this Kokopops guy. What planet is he from?

  21. Back to psephology rather than insults about some random Labour kid or insults about me, I agree with Matt because this will be a good seat for UKIP but then it will be terrible for the Tories. If UKIP rise here, then it will really allow Labour to get a very good majority. Polly Billington is also quite sound, good candidate too.

  22. “I think this could be one of UKIP’s best seats in 2015”

    I very much agree with this statement. UKIP are not only going to take votes from Tory voters but are also going to attack the strong Labour base here. UKIP done particularly well in the more Labour dominated wards in the local elections last year showing their pull to ‘Old Labour’ Thurrock voters.

    I suspect had Thurrock had county council elections this year, UKIP would have won seats.

  23. Did UKIP win in any of the parliamentary constituencies when you assemble the county council wards earlier this month?

    The London Borough and former Metropolitan elections will be interesting because they will be held on the same day as the European elections and should give an indication of UKIP support in London Borough and former Metropolitan constituencies.

    Would UKIP be more likely to gain seats in Kensington & Chelsea or Tower Hamlets?

  24. We’ve had this discussion on another thread Peter, and the answer is yes. There were I think at least 2 parliamentary seats where this was the case, possibly more.
    In answer to your question, the answer would be Kensington & Chelsea if one were forced to choose, but almost certainly neither. The Conservative vote in K & C is surely just about the most implacable & immobile in the land. Nor do I think that the sort of Tory demographic which has landed the party some seats in Tower Hamlets – predominantly young, professional, a bit grasping, and obviously urban – is likely to be that moved by UKIP either. The latter party is likely to show much more in Havering, and at a pinch parts of Redbridge & Waltham Forest. Possibly some of the Tory areas in Hillingdon could be swayed by them a bit as well.

  25. There were at least 8 constituencies where UKIP topped the poll but I haven’t identified them all yet

  26. “The London Borough and former Metropolitan elections will be interesting because they will be held on the same day as the European elections”

    Has that actually been decided yet?

    I thought the local elections were going to take place on May 1st next year with European elections on May 22nd. I’d heard that the government were carrying out a consultation on whether to delay the local elections by 3 weeks like Labour did in European elections years, but that no decision had yet been taken. If they do decide to do that they’ll need to lay the orders before parliament soon after the summer recess.

    The date for the European elections has been moved forward from early June across Europe so that it doesn’t clash with the Pentecost weekend which is a public holiday in many catholic countries and is a traditional time for family holidays on the continent. The date has been moved to try and boost turnout.

    I don’t know what effect it will have on parties like UKIP if the local and European elections are held on different dates 3 weeks apart.

  27. If the date of the local elections was moved to the same day as the European elections then UKIP would gain many more council seats than they would have on the first Thursday in May 2014.

  28. The ideal set up for UKIP and the voting public would be to have the two elections on the same day. It would be cheaper and raise turnout.

    But something tells me that Mr W11 will not like that idea too much and will want to have two separate voting days.

  29. If UKIP do well in this seat, there’d be a huge Labour majority.

  30. On the contrary, this is just the sort of WWC seat where UKIP would pick up floating voters (as well as non-voters) who would otherwise be tempted to go to Labour (ie people who had decided not to vote Tory anyway).

    I believe this pattern will play out in a number of seats, likely costing Labour seats in some places even if the UKIP surge dies down enough that they don’t actually take existing seats from Labour.

  31. I’m loving the kind of complacency exhibited by Labour supporters like Bob. Its the kind of thing that caused them to lose Rawmarsh to UKIP last week

  32. You won’t see any over here Pete. I’ve been around far too long to be complacent. It ain’t over till it’s over is what I tend to think.

  33. You’ll be pleased to know Barnaby that with the exception of being a Labour supporter, I would not classify you in any way as being ‘like Bob’

  34. that is a relief certainly. Just checking. 🙂

  35. Is the momentum truly stupendous then?

  36. UKIP need to calm down. By the next election, in many areas people would have forgotten all about them. UKIP will probably have one seat in the House of Commons and if Pete thinks that Rawmarsh was a protest at Rotherham Council, so keep your hair on. If you want to win in the North, all Labour can do is stick a poster of Nigel Farage with his Margaret Thatcher mug and say how he supports more tax cuts for the rich funded by tax rises for the poor, getting rid of the NHS, deeper and faster cuts to public services and is a Thatcherite. But Labour could not care less because in Tory marginals, UKIP is helping them.
    UKIP is picking up some votes from Labour, but it is not actually picking up swing votes from the centre ground. It picks up protest votes from Labour, Tory and Lib Dem but the overwhelming majority of their votes come from the Tories. if just 6% of Tories go to UKIP, which is what is predicted then instantly a number of Tory-Labour marginals go to Labour.

  37. The current YouGov polls suggest that Labour’s momentum is not stupendous, but pretty good. They are not at all good for the Conservatives who have been in the 20s both today & yesterday. The LDs have stupendously zero momentum.

  38. Now the votes on gay marriage and europe have passed, I hope those polls will act as a warning and we will shortly move to a position where slightly stronger tory ratings earlier in the year resume, and the economy picks up a bit.

  39. I know richard wants a labour government to do long term damage because of some theory it’ll force the tories’ hand, but his plan is flawed, particularly if the tories split further in opposition circa labour post 1979, or g forbid, they get in again after the economy grows a bit when this government now did all the spade work. This is why I spend time campaigning for what I believe in now. But I do believe in democracy and favour a two party system, so it follows there must be another labour government at some point.

  40. “If you want to win in the North, all Labour can do is stick a poster of Nigel Farage with his Margaret Thatcher mug and say how he supports more tax cuts for the rich funded by tax rises for the poor, getting rid of the NHS, deeper and faster cuts to public services and is a Thatcherite.”

    1. You seem to be forgetting that Thatcher is dead. Not only would Labour be unable to do what you suggest because it would be in such poor taste, the folk memory of Thatcher is going to fade much more quickly now she’s gone.

    2. Labour don’t seem to know whether they want to encourage or attack UKIP.

    3. People aren’t going to believe political posters any more. I refer you to airbrushed posters of both Mr Cameron and Mr Blair detailing famously broken promises.

  41. “Now the votes on gay marriage and europe have passed, I hope those polls will act as a warning and we will shortly move to a position where slightly stronger tory ratings earlier in the year resume, and the economy picks up a bit.”

    The votes on those issues haven’t passed.

    Gay marriage has got to go through the Lords where it is going to have a much tougher time, probably coming back to the commons afterwards.

    And how can you seriously think we’ve finished with votes on Europe. Tory rebels will be conspiring with Labour to hold as many as possible between now and 2015 to cause maximum damage to the Coalition / Cameron.

    And UKIP is probably going to get another boost as a result of the appalling events yesterday in Woolwich.

  42. Bob clearly thinks that people in Northern England are stupid. They may all vote Labour like cattle but that does not mean they will do so for evermore. Whether he likes it or not UKIP will continue to be a force in working class places up North (and south for that matter) just as the BNP were a decade or so ago. I think trying to paint Farage as a Thatcher lover would make no difference to their success considering he has said many many times that he admired the former PM. It’s that brutal honesty that people like rather than the constant lies told by the main three parties.

  43. Whilst basically agreeing with your post, I think we would find that Nigel Farage is also being less than “brutally honest” on a great many things – certainly the misnomer that leaving the EU and joining a looser EFTA would have much impact on immigration levels or improving our national finances.

    But at least for the next few years he won’t be in a position to test out the reality of his policies so he’ll get an easy ride and will continue to prosper based on the wave of dissatisfaction with the established parties.

  44. Farage knows he does’t need detail and as long as he keeps on about immigration and Europe he will continue to pick up votes.

    As you have said HH – UKIP will get a boost after the awful events of yesterday as events like these boot the economy and the NHS out of peoples minds and brings the focus back to immigration and multiculturalism.

  45. problem is the nhs(in current from at least) is about to sunk by eu/usa trade agreement that will mean opening up of healthcare but i think labour leadership knows it because they plans have for nhs involve a lot more “home care” well most of that is done my the private/ vol sectors
    but this country has a habit of signing up to stuff and not reading the small print

  46. i ment by not my

  47. I think UKIP is likely to pick up working class Tory votes in the north – given that the Tories have never really recovered their previous position.

    I do think that Labour has some mileage in focusing on UKIP’s economic values and Thatcherite beliefs. There is still little enthusiasm for the free market creed up here in comparison to the south. Of course, UKIP itself is somewhat conflicted as I’m sure many of its members and supporters would certainly be protectionist

  48. I agree with MerseyMike. While Farage has made no secret of his admiration for Thatcher, it’s still surprisingly little-known.

    While this position will be positively welcomed by many UKIP voters, there are those – many socially conservative former Labour voters and people placing a general anti-establishment vote – who would be put off voting UKIP if they were aware of it.

    These are voters who could possibly be won over to vote Labour. And if not, they’re as likely to not vote or vote for some random minor party, none of which will hurt the party.

    And this line would remind the many Tory and ex-Tory voters who wish Cameron was rather more Thatcherite, and are very unlikely to vote Labour any time soon, that they might wish to keep the right-wing vote split at the next general election.

  49. There were 10 constituencies in total where UKIP topped the poll at the recent local elections. Boston & Skegness was the strongest result, where UKIP topped the poll by a margin of just over 11%.

    Full list with margins of “victory”:

    Boston & Skegness (11.18%)
    South Thanet (7.46%)
    Bognor Regis & Littlehampton (7.35%)
    North Thanet (5.92%)
    Sittingbourne & Sheppy (5.70%)
    Aylesbury (2.58%)
    Great Yarmouth (2.25%)
    East Worthing & Shoreham (1.72%)
    Forest of Dean (0.90%)
    Castle Point (0.32%)

    Source: http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

  50. I think all of Doyle Price’s hard constituency work could be irrelevant in the end as I’d expect UKIP, the BNP and the Engloish Democrats to do well

    If she did hang on it would debunk the myth that only right-wing Tories can win in these gritty, working class South Essex seats but the odds are stacked against her

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