Thurrock

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16692 (33.7%)
Labour: 16156 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 644 (1.3%)
UKIP: 15718 (31.7%)
Independent: 79 (0.2%)
Others: 275 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 536 (1.1%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: South East, Essex. Part of the Thurrock council area.

Main population centres: Grays, Purfleet, Tilbury, South Ockendon, Chadwell St Mary.

Profile: An industrial and largely working class seat on the Thames Estuary, at the far southern corner of Essex. The seat contains the major container port of Tilbury and Tilbury power station and the industry of Purfleet, which is home to Esso and Unilever factories. It is a white working class seat, but also has more affluent areas like the recent Chafford Hundred development near the large Lakeside shopping centre. The seat also contains the northern end of the Dartford Crossing over the Thames.

Politics: This used to be a safe Labour seat, but has trended towards the Conservatives over the years. It was first won by the Tories in 1987, but held for just a single term before being won back by Labour. It became a marginal by 2005, and in 2010 it was won by the Conservatives on the narrowest of margins. In 2015 it was a primary target for UKIP, resulting in one of the closest three-way marginals in the country, with just two percent of the vote separating first and third place.


Current MP
JACKIE DOYLE-PRICE (Conservative) Born 1969, Sheffield. Educated at Notre Dame school and Durham University. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 2005. First elected as MP for Thurrock in 2010. Government whip since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16869 (37%)
Lab: 16777 (37%)
LDem: 4901 (11%)
BNP: 3618 (8%)
Oth: 3656 (8%)
MAJ: 92 (0%)
2005*
Con: 14261 (33%)
Lab: 20636 (47%)
LDem: 4770 (11%)
BNP: 2526 (6%)
Oth: 1499 (3%)
MAJ: 6375 (15%)
2001
Con: 11124 (30%)
Lab: 21121 (57%)
LDem: 3846 (10%)
UKIP: 1271 (3%)
MAJ: 9997 (27%)
1997
Con: 12640 (27%)
Lab: 29896 (63%)
LDem: 3843 (8%)
Oth: 833 (2%)
MAJ: 17256 (37%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JACKIE DOYLE-PRICE (Conservative) See above.
POLLY BILLINGTON (Labour) Born 1967. Educated at Sussex University. Head of communications for Citizens Advice, former BBC journalist and special advisor to Ed Miliband.
RHODRI JAMIESON-BALL (Liberal Democrat)
TIM AKER (UKIP) Born Aveley. Educated at Nottingham University. Head of UKIP policy unit. Contested MEP for East of England since 2014.
ABA KRISTILOLU (All People)
JAMIE BARNES (CISTA)
DANIEL MUNYAMBU (No description) Born Kenya. Basildon councillor since 2011, originally elected as Labour.
Links
Comments - 593 Responses on “Thurrock”
  1. Rivers: but I also feel that Thurrock is an area where Corbyn is pretty toxic. This is reflected in Labour losing four wards in the May locals.

  2. I’d guess others is mostly Lib Dem recovery at UKIP’s expense if the Kippers are falling back and the LDs resume their position as the anti-establishment receptacle.

  3. I don’t really see that happening and certainly not in Thurrock. The LDs are a long way from restoring their anti-establishment credentials in my opinion (in the context of Brexit they come across as exactly the opposite).

  4. Labour have been on a sharp downward trajectory in Thurrock since 1997… too early to make predictions for 2020 really but if Corbyn’s still leading Labour there must a good chance that trend will continue, whether or not UKIP stay in contention will depend on how Brexit negotiations go and how well they adapt to the post-Farage era.

  5. There is likely to be some UKIP to LD swing in some areas but not places like Thurrock but in places like North Carshalton where Corbyn would also be toxic.

  6. This is a seat that Labour never have lost in first. UKIP will drop a fair bit. Jackie Doyle-Price will get a third term here CON HOLD – 5-6,000

  7. It may well be a Tory hold but it certainly will not be a easy hold. UKIP are still strong in Thurrock.

  8. They may have been strong. But that hasn’t been tested post Brexit referendum. Having a strong network of activists in the area may well count for little come June.

  9. I wouldn’t be surprised the see the Conservative vote to go up to 42 – 44%

  10. On paper, you’d have thought the Conservatives would slam-dunk this seat.

  11. This is one of six Tory-held seats across the South (outside London) which YouGov’s model shows as ‘likely’ to go Labour.

    The bookies still disagree, offering 4/1 for Lab.

    For the record, the other five are:
    Bedford
    Brighton Kemptown
    Bristol NW
    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
    Stroud

  12. Yes, some of YG’s constituency predictions are rather strange which is why I take them with a pinch of salt. I think YG is going to end up with massive egg on their face as I believe the Tories will do much better than they predict, more in line with ICM IMHO.

    But hey, I could definitely be wrong!

  13. I tend to agree with Wreathy, on this one at any rate. Assuming the national collapse of UKIP applies here ( an assumption I know ) it is difficult in theory to see Corbyn’s version of the Labour Party wresting the seat back. Any evidence on the ground that the Corbyn surge is actually making a real difference? Most of the anecdotal evidence suggests that the polls do not reflect what is actually going on.

  14. Definite Tory hold. Doyle- Price is a very assiduous MP.

  15. I think I called this one to be the highest vote share for UKIP this election. I was right šŸ™‚

  16. Labour’s vote share also increased more than the Tories. They can definitely still win here.

  17. Well UKIP will definitely be squeezed further now that they’re so clearly a busted flush. Fairly evident that this seat is trending Tory. Labour might win this at the next election – in fact this is bound to fall in the event of a Labour majority – but it could well be the last time they ever win the seat. Certainly the 17k majority of 1997 is never going to be repeated.

  18. To an extent. There is also an element of pro labour demographic changes in part of the seats.

  19. Even after the exit poll came out, I somehow predicted in my mind that Jackie Doyle-Price would hold narrowly. I think Labour will gain it if they’re on course for a majority but unlike certain other marginal (or semi-marginal) Tory seats which are showing a drift to Labour, this one isn’t going their way.

  20. Jackie Doyle-Price did a bit of a Michael Forsyth a la 1992 in holding on to this seat for the third time. Given Labour have now been frustratingly disappointed at the death virtually with three different candidates, they’ll be determined more than ever before to finally get this seat back and make sure of it. Perhaps it’s not meant to be for them though and JDP is too well-established an incumbent to lose here anytime soon?

  21. This was by far UKIP’s strongest performance. I guess that can be put down to Tim Aker being well embedded, and a reluctance to go Tory from a large part of their vote. Doyle-Price would have hoped for a sizable majority this time, but the way things went on the night I suppose she’ll be happy with a third narrow win.

  22. All of ukips cllrs in thurrock have resigned the whip…

  23. UKIP is dead.

    It is no more. It has ceased to be. It’s expired and gone to meet its maker. It is a late party. It’s a stiff. Bereft of life. It rests in peace. It’s pushing up daisies. It’s run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. This is an ex-party.

  24. They haven’t resigned the Whip – they all defected en masse (along with MEP Tim Aker) – to form a new group and Party: Thurrock Independents.

  25. Ockendon ward by-election, 22.03.18:

    Cons 696 36% (+8%)
    Lab 696 36% (+11%)
    Thurrock Inds* 531 28%

    * ex-UKIP

    Cons Gain from UKIP [Con elected after coin toss]

  26. I guess that partially compensates for the coin toss the Tories lost in last year’s locals, which amazingly was crucial in denying them a majority on Northumberland County Council.

  27. Decent local election results for Labour here, in particular the South Chafford ward. It might appear that any anti Labour trend has now levelled off somewhat here despite the huge brexit vote.

    This could remain pretty marginal for a long time.

  28. “Decent local election results for Labour here, in particular the South Chafford ward. It might appear that any anti Labour trend has now levelled off somewhat here despite the huge brexit vote.”

    Two words – demographic change. The black population, in particular, is rising very fast here, and the stereotypical white Essex man type is gradually dying off and/or moving out. See the discussion on the Romford thread.

  29. Yet it was only as recently as 1987 when the Tories won this seat for the first time ever I think – certainly in the post war period. Labour had a majority not much short of 20000 in 97 so for the Tories to win here in 2010 – and hold it for 3 successive elections is pretty commendable if the demographic trends are working against them – even more so when you consider the incumbent is a northerner

  30. Conflicting trends here I think. On the one hand a huge shift of white working class voters to Conservatives and UKIP, as elsewhere. But in the longer run the strong rise in the ethnic minority population here will start to benefit Labour again.

  31. I’m a fan of JDP and am happy she has managed to hold on here. Long may she reign.

  32. ‘Iā€™m a fan of JDP’

    Have to agree you there Tristan – see my posts upthread from many years ago – although I also liked Andrew McKinley, the Labour MP who held the seat for 18 years

    In today’s world of cynical, careerist, back-stabbing politicians, it’s very refreshing to have somebody who is genuine, down to earth and seems to be in politics for all the right reasons

  33. Well said Tim. She’s the absolute antithesis of the dead eyed, constantly smirking Esther McVey or Liz Truss’ of the political world. Shallow, opportunistic pygmies would look like they would take glee in a burning orphanage.

  34. Britain Thinks has polled 2,000 voters here and in other marginals.

    Voters regard Labour as more ‘a protesting student’ today whereas it used to be thought of as ‘a pie and pint.’

    Just 25% thought they represented working class voters, below 27% who thought they represented foreign Nationals.

  35. As I understand it, the figures are actually +25 and +27 net (as in “Lab represents the WC” minus “Lab doesn’t represent the WC” = +25). Considerably better for them though still probably a long-term decline.

    The other word that kept coming up was “quinoa”, though for me, that’s unfair on the grain, to which I am rather partial, and which doesn’t deserve comparisons with the cranks currently leading the opposition party.

  36. (Though I can’t imagine quinoa is flying off the shelves in Thurrock. A quick Google confirms my suspicions that they don’t even have a Waitrose.)

  37. ‘They don’t even have a Waitrose’.

    The HORROR! šŸ™‚

  38. I’m trying to remember the last time I went to a Waitrose. Certainly not since I left home. Do Waitrose cease to exist above the Watford Gap?

  39. Yes….there’s a big one in Hull for example. It’s in
    Beverley Rd ..I’ve used it quite a few times.

  40. Must have missed it. I know Beverley Road as well but I only clothes shop in Hull

  41. There is a Waitrose in Buxton and quite a few in Cheshire. It doesn’t really exist in Lancashire and Cumbria but Lancashire and Cumbria have the Lancashire based Booths supermarket instead which has a coffee machine just like Waitrose.

    There are only a handful in Scotland but pretty much where you’d expect them to be such as Edinburgh’s Morningside one.

  42. David Van Day has gained a seat for the Conservatives here:

    21.03.19, Aveley & Uplands ward:

    Conservative 773 44% (+ 16%)
    Thurock Inds 551 31% ( – 12% )
    Labour 394 21% ( – 7% )
    LD 55

    Cons Gain from T Inds

  43. The Conservative vote declined in 245 seats at the 2019 general election. Thurrock had the largest increase, so I’m posting the Top 30 here. I think this list will confirm Tim Jones’s stereotypes!

    1 Thurrock 19.1%
    2 Mansfield 17.3%
    3 North Norfolk 16.9%
    4 Dudley North 16.6%
    5 Leicester East 14.4%
    6 Walsall North 14.2%
    7 Cannock Chase 13.3%
    8 Stoke-On-Trent South 13.1%
    9 Boston and Skegness 13.1%
    10 Redcar 12.8%
    11 Great Grimsby 12.7%
    12 Bassetlaw 11.9%
    13 Cleethorpes 11.9%
    14 Great Yarmouth 11.6%
    15 Dudley South 11.5%
    16 Wolverhampton North East 11.4%
    17 Clacton 11.0%
    18 Redditch 11.0%
    19 Telford 10.9%
    20 Brigg and Goole 10.9%
    21 West Bromwich West 10.9%
    22 North Devon 10.8%
    23 Gateshead 10.8%
    24 Scunthorpe 10.3%
    25 Birmingham, Yardley 10.0%
    26 Rochford and Southend East 10.0%
    27 Chatham and Aylesford 9.6%
    28 North East Derbyshire 9.5%
    29 Castle Point 9.5%
    30 Leigh 9.4%

    Interesting that from the list, a few aren’t Tory-held: Leicester East, Gateshead and Birmingham, Yardley. In the case of the first two, perhaps it was an anti-Labour vote from the Indian and Jewish demographics, respectively? Yardley voted Leave, and the Lib Dem vote declined there again. Could be ‘tactical unwind’, with former Lib Dem voters going Tory.

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