Thirsk & Malton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 27545 (52.6%)
Labour: 8089 (15.4%)
Lib Dem: 4703 (9%)
Green: 2404 (4.6%)
UKIP: 7805 (14.9%)
Liberal: 1127 (2.2%)
Independent: 692 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 19456 (37.2%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, North Yorkshire. The whole of Ryedale council area, part of Scarborough council and part of Hambleton council area.

Main population centres: Thirsk, Malton, Pickering, Filey, Hunmanby, Norton-on-Derwent, Helmsby.

Profile: A huge rural seat in North Yorkshire, covering part of the North Yorks moors (the author James Herriot lived and practiced in Thirsk) and then following the Yorkshire Wolds east to the town of Filey on the coast. Thirsk and Malton is an affluent rural seat, with a high rate of owner-occupiers and low unemployment. The economy is largely based on tourism and agriculture, though many residents commute into York..

Politics: The seat itself is safely Conservative, along with its predecessors it has been held by the Conservatives since the nineteenth century apart from a brief period of Liberal representation after a 1986 by-election. If the seat itself has rarely been competitive, the race for the Conservative nomination has been far less secure. After boundary changes in 2010 John Greenway, the sitting MP for the predecessor seat of Ryedale lost the nomination to Anne McIntosh, MP for the abolished Vale of York seat. McIntosh was in turn deselected in advance of the 2015 election and replaced by Kevin Hollinrake. McIntosh initially suggested she would stand anyway as an independent, but ultimately did not.


Current MP
KEVIN HOLLINRAKE (Conservative) Born 1963. Educated at Easingwold School and Sheffield Polytechnic. Former director of an estate agents group. First elected as MP for Thirsk & Malton in 2015. Selected as Conservative candidate for Dewsbury before the last election, but stepped down in 2008.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20167 (53%)
Lab: 5169 (14%)
LDem: 8886 (23%)
UKIP: 2502 (7%)
Oth: 1418 (4%)
MAJ: 11281 (30%)
2005*
Con: 21251 (48%)
Lab: 9148 (21%)
LDem: 10782 (24%)
UKIP: 1522 (3%)
Oth: 1417 (3%)
MAJ: 10469 (24%)
2001
Con: 20711 (47%)
Lab: 6470 (15%)
LDem: 15836 (36%)
UKIP: 882 (2%)
MAJ: 4875 (11%)
1997
Con: 21351 (44%)
Lab: 8762 (18%)
LDem: 16293 (33%)
Oth: 917 (2%)
MAJ: 5058 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Ryedale

Demographics
2015 Candidates
KEVIN HOLLINRAKE (Conservative) Born 1963. Educated at Easingwold School and Sheffield Polytechnic. Founder and director of an estate agents group. Selected as Conservative candidate for Dewsbury before the last election, but stepped down in 2008.
ALAN AVERY (Labour) Publisher and former army officer.
DI KEAL (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Beverley High School and Warwick University. Media and communications manager. Ryedale councillor.
TOBY HORTON (UKIP) Director of a television production company. Contested Sedgefield 1983, Rother Valley 1992 for the Conservatives. Contested Sedgefield by-election 2007, Thirsk and Malton 2010 for UKIP.
CHRIS NEWSAM (Green)
JOHN CLARK (Liberal)
PHILIP TATE (Independent)
Links
Comments - 249 Responses on “Thirsk & Malton”
  1. I have to admit, I’m always a little surprised the Lib Dems don’t do better in North Yorkshire than they do. I mean, they had Ryedale briefly, and they would’ve won Richmond if not for the vote split in ’89.

    And if she stays, she might do better in the Lords anyway. Is Catherine Ashton’s term almost up? Summer? She could get that job, although I’d heard Andrew Mitchell might get it.

  2. LD Gain

    LD 20% -3%
    Con 19% -34%
    *Ind 18%
    UKIP 18% +11%
    Lab 16% +2%
    Green 9%

  3. Nine percent for the Greens? Yeah, that seems right. (Sarcasm)

    I don’t discredit the idea of an independent McIntosh getting something like 18% or even 25%, though. And UKIP did very well here last time, so that prediction for them, while high, may not be that high.

    In other words, something like Con 27, Ind 22, LD 19, Lab 17, UKIP 15 doesn’t seem beyond the realm of possibility to me.

  4. 9% for the Greens?

    *facepalm*

    And you seemed to be getting better at this, WoC.

  5. I assume ‘Winds of Change’ was having a laugh. The Green’s are not going to do that well, I don’t believe UKIP will do that well ( the result last time was obviously skewed by the delay and lower turnout), I don’t think Ann McIntosh would get such a big vote as an independent, the Conservative vote is far too low, and indeed there is no evidence to suggest anything other than a safe hold with at least a four figure majority, if not five.

  6. 9% is a bit to low. Surely this is the next Brighton Pavilion? 🙂

  7. Dead cert Tory hold, with McIntosh probably in fifth. I predict:-

    Conservative: 48%
    Labour: 17%
    Liberal Democrat: 14%
    UKIP: 11%
    Independent (McIntosh): 8%
    Others: 2%

  8. A very plausible prediction, though I can’t see why McIntosh will go through with standing as an independent in such a safe seat. As you say, the seat is so safe it will make no difference whatsoever….whilst it will end any chance of McIntosh going to the Lords or getting a job in Brussels. I think it’s likely that she’ll go quietly in the end, in return for Cameron finding her a berth in the Lords, in Brussels or on some quango or other. Cameron will need pro Europeans on his team in the run up to 2017, maybe she could even be a minister from the Lords. Better than being 100% certain to lose her income.

  9. Is there any chance of her getting selected elsewhere?

  10. Why thankyou HH. You may be correct that Anne McIntosh decides against standing as an independent, and is elevated to the Lords, or even Brussels.
    In any case, I’d expect a below average increase for UKIP here, purely on the basis that the Tory candidate will likely be far more Eurosceptic than McIntosh..

    The whole situation is indeed regrettable. Not only is Anne McIntosh an assiduous and seemingly effectual parliamentarian, she’s a rare commodity as a pro-European Northern Tory woman MP. And not to mention, she’s a nice bit of crumpet! I’d certainly go along to her surgery if I lived in Thirsk..

  11. “Is there any chance of her getting selected elsewhere?”

    No

  12. You’ve got an interesting taste in women, Gropecock. You clearly have a soft spot for schoolmaam/Hattie Jacques matron types.

    On Europe the Tories should take note of the recent MORI poll showing 54% would vote to stay in the EU. Mathematically at least some of them have to be Tory voters. They need to be careful not to repel them.

  13. She’s not as crumpetish as Claire Perry I’ll admit. But I’d pick her over Anna Soubry (or even Therese Coffey) any day of the week..

    Now just don’t let my partner Derek hear any of this!

  14. Well this thread has got weird.

  15. Yeah… This is uncomfortable to some degree.

  16. Well then it’s a good job there are 649 other constituency pages for you to peruse!

  17. I’m speechless. I will recover my powers of speech soon I expect.

  18. Clive, this is a site dedicated to discussing electoral politics, not your sexual fancies.

  19. Martin Callanan must be sorely tempted to put his name in for selection here.

  20. There is to be a supper with a guest speaker, for party members, in Thirsk on Friday 25th July. The guest speaker is supposed to be the new Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, so we should hear soon who it is.

    I’d be surprised if Anne McIntosh did end up standing as an independent because ultimately it won’t make any difference.

  21. Heard on Twitter….Local estate agent Kevin Hollinrake is the new #Conservative candidate for #Thirsk and Malton- but close run thing at tonight’s vote

  22. If Cameron offers Anne McIntosh something––a spot in the Lords, maybe––that’d clear it up. If not, she might stand just to be a spoiler. I’m heard she’s pro-EU, but I don’t know much about her other opinions. Is there a chance she’d defect?

  23. I don’t think there is a party she could plausibly defect to. If she was a Eurosceptic through and though, UKIP may have been an option but that’s obviously out of the question. Pretty sure the rest of her views wouldn’t fit with either Labour or the Lib Dems. Even at the height of Blairism she stuck with her party despite Labour’s shift that lured many Tory supporters their way. Her views on same sex marriage might not go down well with many Labour and Lib Dem activists, even though some of their MPs voted against the Bill.

  24. Thanks for the info. Her best bet for defection might be the Lib Dems, as they’re both a big tent party and have previously held her seat (back when it was Ryedale), but I agree she’d probably not do it, and they likely wouldn’t welcome it all that much.

  25. prediction for 2015-

    con- 47%
    Lab- 16%
    LD- 15%
    UKIP- 12%
    Indy- 6%
    Green- 4%
    Liberal- 2%

  26. Green Party PPC for Thirsk & Malton
    20 years in sales and marketing
    Spent last 15 years in founding and working with Social Enterprises and as a professional fundraiser in the charity sector.
    previous experience includes 20 years in sales and marketing management
    my passion is in helping local communities thrive and engage in transition to a sustainable and equitable future.

    Our take is that Greens are standing currently between 7-9% and will do even better in May!

  27. Interestingly UKIP had a higher vote here in 2010 than in Thanet South…

    I wonder if Robbie’s “Indy” is McIntosh? Was Tory branch divided over here ouster?

  28. In 2010 UKIP were 46% behind here. They were 42% behind in Thanet South. The Conservatives got a lower percentage of the vote in Thanet South than here.

  29. Is Anne McIntosh definitely standing as an independent, then? I’d heard she is. What will that look like?

  30. Ah my mistake… Well I suppose we can all anticipate Lady McIntosh joining the Lords very shortly.

  31. She’ll perhaps also be a junior minister from the Lords if Cameron remains PM. Almost certainly she got some kind of assurance of this kind in return for retiring gracefully.

  32. When is this website going to show Greens in their proper light? As it’s the first time therei has been a Green Candidate how can this show that we have no chance of winning this seat. Our Polling puts Green currently on 11% due to local issues around fracking. Why despite previous emails is the Green candidate without description. sorry guys this is clearly prejudiced again Greens and needs correcting

  33. Think you might be reading a little too much into things!!! I mean if there is no info on the green candidate it’s not going to make one vote difference to the actual outcome…

    I am however interested to see what difference fracking makes to the votes- I think it’s a load of people up in arms about something which will make not one jot of difference to their vote but I could be proved totally wrong and may see a large green vote because of it.. Only 8 weeks until we find out

  34. Chris – I suspect the main reason you’ve not got a description is that this site, trying to cover every seat in the British Isles, has what effectively amounts to an unpaid part time staff of one. I’m sure you appreciate that this site being put together as a free public service means that there will by necessity be some slowness in making updates to profiles when people have requested them.

    Obviously UKPR doesn’t make predictions – as to why the commenters here tend to downgrade Green chances, it’s a result of predictors about the area – this being a large, Conservative-leaning, rural seat generally means that it would be surprising if it had an especially high Green vote, as other similar seats don’t have one. You may of course manage to buck that pattern – but as of the best information we have it’s a pattern that exists.

    Best of luck with your campaign!

  35. AW does a very good job of adding PPCs. It’s a bit rich of candidates who are selected 3 months before a General Election complaining about a lack of coverage. Others have been PPCs for 1-5 years! I may be being unfair to the Green Chris here, but I returned to work after a week due to a minor operation and had received 4 emails from a Green in the NW, ranting about prejudice as I hadnt replied to their emails! Calm down.

  36. Surely the Green candidate can think of more fruitful ways of campaigning than having his name written on this page? You’re not gonna win votes here so you’re wasting your time.

  37. The first Liberal candidate has been selected. It’s a reselection in Thirsk & Malton with John Clark:

    http://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/ryedale/12864961.display/

  38. Revised prediction (orig made May 14):-

    Conservative: 52%
    Labour: 19%
    Liberal Democrat: 13%
    UKIP: 11%
    Others: 5%

    Sad to see the lovely Anne McIntosh is not standing again though.

  39. What is this based on exactly? I am from this constituency and everyone I speak to is either voting Green, UKIP, or not voting at all. Lib Dems are hated everywhere too, so it’s naïve to expect they’ll get such a high proportion of the vote.

  40. Conservative Hold. 13,000 majority. Labour 2nd.

  41. Surprise surprise, Anne McIntosh gets a peerage.

    The whole system has become a farce…nominee lists packed with nobodies whilst many genuinely worthy candidates (Ann Widdecombe?) are continually passed over.

  42. I see there’s a by-election here on 17th December (Ryedale, Derwent ward).

    All we need now is for St Helens to fill their vacancy with a by-election on Christmas Eve! (It’s a strange place & Council, it could happen – although if I had to bet I’d go for a snow-filled Jan/Feb ward fight. No Marie pun intended!)

  43. Or maybe Cranford (Feltham & Heston) – Hounslow weren’t averse to a close to Christmas by-election for the parliamentary constituency (I was due to count votes but they scheduled it for the night of my work Christmas party) so a by-election could easily be held Christmas Eve or New Year’s Eve!

  44. Ha I’ve certainly never heard of a NYE by-election, but I think that’s ‘cos Council staff – and a lot of office workers – finish half day.

    A declaration at the stroke of midnight really would have to pay counters a lot!

  45. A by-election in Derwent last night was one by the Liberals, i.e. the Liberal Party, not the Lib Dems. This may partly have been caused by a nomination cock-up that saw the LD appear as no party on the ballot paper.

  46. The winner is called Michael Potter. Surely that isn’t the same person who was 2nd in the Richmond by-election standing for the SDP in 1989 (the election which brought William Hague to parliament)?

  47. Jack S – no, the Liberal Party have a history of electing district and County Cllrs here.

    Result:

    Liberal 283
    Cons 278 (down 12%)
    Ind 124 (down 13%
    No desc. 81
    Yorks 1st. 32

    Majority 5

    4 Spoilt ballots

    Liberal Party gain from Cons.

    [Barnaby – not sure, but I’ll check. It wouldn’t surprise me, as Steve Radford’s candidates are often defectors he recruits to stand]

  48. Liberal PPC John Clark has lost his Ryedale County Council seat after recounts:

    Conservative 1,210
    Liberal 1,208

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