Telford

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16094 (39.6%)
Labour: 15364 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 927 (2.3%)
Green: 930 (2.3%)
UKIP: 7330 (18%)
MAJORITY: 730 (1.8%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Shropshire. Part of Telford and Wrekin council area.

Main population centres: Telford, Ironbridge.

Profile: Telford is a rapidly growing new town development. The area previously had an important industrial heritage, including some of the earliest industrial development around Ironbridge Gorge and Coalbrookdale. In 1963 it was designated as a newtown and has expanded massively since, housing the overspill population of the urban west midlands. There is significant high tech and computer industry here and HMRC is a major local employer.

Politics: Like most English newtowns Telford is a marginal area - until 1997 it was part of The Wrekin, a marginal seat between the Conservatives and Labour. In 1997 the expanding population lead to the creation of a new Telford seat, carving out the urban centre from The Wrekin seat. This was held by Labour from 1997 until 2015 when it fell to the Conservatives.


Current MP
LUCY ALLAN (Conservative) Born 1964, Worcestershire. Educated at Durham University. Former investment manager and chartered accountant. Wandsworth councillor 2006-2012. First elected as MP for Telford in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 14996 (36%)
Lab: 15974 (39%)
LDem: 6399 (15%)
UKIP: 2428 (6%)
Oth: 1513 (4%)
MAJ: 978 (2%)
2005*
Con: 11100 (32%)
Lab: 16506 (48%)
LDem: 4941 (14%)
UKIP: 1659 (5%)
MAJ: 5406 (16%)
2001
Con: 8471 (27%)
Lab: 16854 (55%)
LDem: 3983 (13%)
UKIP: 1098 (4%)
Oth: 469 (2%)
MAJ: 8383 (27%)
1997
Con: 10166 (27%)
Lab: 21456 (58%)
LDem: 4371 (12%)
MAJ: 11290 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
LUCY ALLAN (Conservative) Born 1964, Worcestershire. Educated at Durham University. Former investment manager and chartered accountant. Wandsworth councillor 2006-2012.
DAVID WRIGHT (Labour) Born 1966, Telford. Educated at Wolverhampton Polytechnic. Local government officer. Wrekin councillor 1989-1997. MP for Telford 2001 to 2015. PPS to Rosie Winterton 2004-05, PPS to David Miliband 2005-2006, PPS to John Hutton 2006, PPS to Jane Kennedy 2007-08, Government Whip 2009-10. Opposition Whip 2010-11.
IAN CROLL (Liberal Democrat)
DENIS ALLEN (UKIP) Educated at Bedford Modern. Former RAF officer and KwikFit management trainer. Former North Shropshire and Telford and Wrekin councillor for the Conservative party. UKIP councillor on Telford and Wrekin council since 2013.Contested North Shropshire 1997 for the Referendum Party, Telford 2010 for UKIP.
PETER HAWKINS (Green) Freelance journalist.
Links
Comments - 118 Responses on “Telford”
  1. Politics is the last refuge of the workplace bully – a good piece by John McTernan in the Telegraph today online.

    Jack S – yes, it could have been ie a petition of constituents for alleged misconduct along the lines that Zac, Douglas Carswell and David Davis wanted.

    Sadly, the Whips/Gov’t wanted MPs to decide if an MP merited triggering a petition for a ballot, so int’l hardly ever happen, if ever.

  2. I must say I don’t support recall of MPs generally (just think it would be an invitation to Stop the War/38 Degrees types to cause chaos) but the Act that was passed was a truly dreadful piece of legislation, one of the very worst pieces of constitutional legislation in recent times. The three circumstances in which it applies are:

    – An MP being imprisoned and the appeal period expiring.
    – Standards Committee suspension of at least 10 days.
    – Conviction for an offence under Parliamentary Standards Act 2009.

    In all three of these scenarios MPs would be strongly expected to resign anyway and have in recent precedents. So the chances of the Act being tested if commenced are very slim indeed – I can find just four occasions since 2000 on which it may have applied, all relating to Standards Committee rulings. I’m not sure this justifies an elaborate recall procedure being put into law or in any way empowers the public to ‘sack’ their MPs, which is how it was being sold (in practice it would be the courts and/or the Standards Committee effectively calling the shots). It to me makes little sense to have this odd middle category between matters that justify expulsion (of which there are a number in law) and matters that can’t trigger a recall petition. If it was felt that these matters require steeper punishment provisions could simply have been made for automatic expulsion upon imprisonment, and 10-day or more suspensions abolished in favour of more expulsions. In the end I think the Act will just add to public discontent rather than doing anything to solve it when people find out that a Recall Act exists but doesn’t apply to whichever MP is in trouble that week.

  3. Please resign for the entertainment factor of the by-election. Would be possibly the only Corbyn gain ever.

  4. Lucy Allan MP has released a statement in which she says she has apologised for the voicemail messages.

  5. Another foot-in-mouth incident by this MP!

    Ha it’s even more amusing, as she was attempting to be on the side of the workers by pointing out Drs earn £100k pa.

    However she said her constituents aren’t highly educated people, so there’s probably only one Junior Dr from Telford!

    10 have since got in touch and want to meet her.

  6. OK I confess to being totally bemused by how Anthony has worked out his notionals and here best illustrates it. Ultra marginal Telford is to pick up two safe Labour wards. By my calculation this makes it notionally Labour by between 500-1,000 but according to Anthony’s figures it remains Tory by 100 votes, how?

  7. @rivers I think because if you are using electoral calculus’s figures the numbers look off in several wards. For example Labour beating the Tories by over 1,000 votes in Hadley and Leegomery is almost certainly wrong caused primarily by them allocating UKIP only 3 votes. Also Labour is allocated 0 votes in two Wrekin wards which is obviously wrong and thus the knock on effect is that it bumps their vote slightly in all other Wrekin wards to compensate.

  8. Maxim
    No ward splitting involved

    Pepps
    I considered that but in this instance I figured it was probably cancelled out since EC have Lab only beating the Tories by 300 votes in Donnignton which seems suspect given its safer than Hadley is?

  9. @Rivers. Donnington is a smaller ward than Hadley so while Labour might beat the Tories by a higher % in Donnington, the actual raw vote lead may be lower. Case in point in the local elections held on the same day the leading Labour candidate beat the leading Tory candidate in Donnington by 154 votes and in Hadley by 705 votes.

    My gut feeling is the true figure for the new Telford is Labour by 300 or so give or take 500 either way which is why it theoretically could have been notionally Tory depending on how the votes actually fell but more likely than not it was Labour by a small margin.

  10. Maxim
    I was using EC data

  11. In light of the seriously boring Sleaford result I might as well share last nights local by election results too, a rather eclectic bunch.

    University and Scotforth Rural (Lancaster) Lab/Green marginal usually leaning Lab
    LAB 34.9% -0.5
    GRN 28.1% -4.4
    CON 24.2% +0.5
    LDEM 12.8% +4.4%

    Turnout was a pathetic 7% which is hardy surprising in a ward that’s something like 80% students. On an amusing side note imagine had this been held just a few weeks from now outside of term time, the only voters would have been the farm folk in the rural areas and thus the Tories probably would have won on a 1% turnout!!!

    Trench (Tonbridge & Malling) usually a safe Con ward
    CON: 61.2% (+17.4)
    LAB: 20.7% (+1.1)
    UKIP: 18.1% (-0.4)
    Grn and LDem didn’t stand this time.

    A fairly bizarre result given who didn’t stand, either the Greens and Libs in this seat are very Tory friendly or Lab haemorrhaged votes to the Cons but made up for it with the Greens and Libs, who knows but on face value it does throw a spanner into the whole “Progressive Alliance” talk.

    Madeley (Newcastle under Lyme)
    IND: 64.8% (+64.8)
    CON: 15.8% (-7.1)
    LDEM: 10.6% (+10.6)
    LAB: 8.8% (-35.5)
    UKIP and Grn didn’t stand
    On the face of it an appalling result for Lab in particular but not wholly surprising, the sitting Lab councillor had defected to the independent group and they’ve been making waves in this ward of late, they came from nowhere and won a huge victory in the last set of locals., clearly no luck in stopping them as of yet.

    Finally we have Horsehay & Lightmoor (Telford & Wrekin) normally a safe/very reliable Tory ward
    LAB: 45.9% (+20.5)
    CON: 38.2% (-3.8)
    UKIP: 15.9% (-1.6)
    LDem and Grn didn’t stand
    Renewed faith in the progressive alliance!!! Seriously though a good result for Lab winning a ward they’ve never won before and in a marginal seat at that. On a night when Lab has little cause to celebrate silver linings and all that.

    There was also supposedly a by election in Maldon West but I’ve heard no word??? So if anyone has that result feel free to share.

  12. The risk of a progressive alliance is assuming that Lib Dem and Green voters would naturally vote Labour and vice versa. I know plenty who wouldn’t.

    The defection makes sense, I heard some chatter on it last night.

  13. Matt
    Agreed re the Libs and Greens ot necessarily backing Lab, I’ve met more current or ex Lib Dem voters that have more sympathies with the Tories than Lab, I think that was one of the big bloopers of the last election, assuming that the Lib vote would break mostly for Lab, in many a seat it clearly didn’t.

    The Greens are more surprising, I cant speak from experience here but I seriously think in the South especially some peeps seriously underestimate the scale of the “shire do gooder” vote, its probably more significant than most assumed.

  14. Just thought I’d bump this thread since there seems to be a lot of talk today re Thursdays local by-elections which I reported on this thread days ago.

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