Swansea West
2015 Result:
Conservative: 7931 (22.6%)
Labour: 14967 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 3178 (9%)
Plaid Cymru: 2266 (6.4%)
Green: 1784 (5.1%)
UKIP: 4744 (13.5%)
TUSC: 159 (0.5%)
Independent: 78 (0.2%)
Others: 49 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 7036 (20%)
Category: Very safe Labour seat
Geography: Wales, West Glamorgan. Part of the Swansea council area.
Main population centres: Swansea, Dunvant.
Profile: Swansea is the second largest city in Wales and a retail and commercial centre for much of western Wales. Once a industrial town, known for its copper production, it is now largely service based, with the DVLA the largest local employer. Swansea West includes the city centre and its neighbourhoods, rebuilt after the old town centre was razed in the blitz, Swansea University and some of the more affluent outlying suburbs of the city.
Politics: A reliable Labour seat (Alan Williams represented the area continuously for 46 years) but traditionally the less secure of the two Swansea seats. Historically the Conservatives were the challengers here, and at times it was an extremely close marginal - Labour won by only 401 votes and would probably have lost the seat in 1983 were it not for favourable boundary changes. The Liberal Democrats ran Labour an extremely close second here in 2010, but slumped to fourth place in 2015.
| Con: | 7407 (21%) |
| Lab: | 12335 (35%) |
| LDem: | 11831 (33%) |
| PC: | 1437 (4%) |
| Oth: | 2583 (7%) |
| MAJ: | 504 (1%) |
| Con: | 5285 (16%) |
| Lab: | 13833 (42%) |
| LDem: | 9564 (29%) |
| PC: | 2150 (6%) |
| Oth: | 2254 (7%) |
| MAJ: | 4269 (13%) |
| Con: | 6094 (19%) |
| Lab: | 15644 (49%) |
| LDem: | 5313 (17%) |
| PC: | 3404 (11%) |
| Oth: | 1645 (5%) |
| MAJ: | 9550 (30%) |
| Con: | 8289 (20%) |
| Lab: | 22748 (56%) |
| LDem: | 5872 (15%) |
| PC: | 2675 (7%) |
| Oth: | 885 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 14459 (36%) |
Lab hold in tonight’s ward by-election: Lab 1,368 Con 236 LD 113 NF 108.
This was in Llansamlet wasn’t it. Bit surprised there was no Plaid candidate, and also that the Tories were second. The Labour hold is no surprise at all though.
the ward is in Swansea E not Swansea W.
2015 IMHO
Lab 43
Con 20
LD 16
PC 9
UKIP 8
Others 4
This was the result for Swansea West in the 2009 Euro elections:
Lab: 21.6%
LD: 19.5%
Con: 17.9%
UKIP: 11.7%
PC: 11.4%
Green: 6.9%
BNP: 5.7%
Oth: 5.4%
The LibDems gave this there best shot in 2010, and with the likely fall in their vote next time my feeling is that Labour will be all right here, particularly if Geraint Davies gets an incumbent effect.
If the Conservatives have a good General Election for them, this seat is not beyond them.
I’d beg to differ from the last sentence. Swansea W was often close in the past, and was won by the Conservatives in 1959; but at that time it included Mumbles. Since Mumbles was put into Gower in 1983, Labour has not again faced a serious Conservative challenge here – even in 1983 Alan Williams survived with relative comfort – and the Tory vote has greatly reduced. It’s possible that the Tories might be able to get some back from the LDs if the latter were sufficiently weakened, but some of the LD vote is very public sector middle-class & not very Conservative-leaning these days. If the LDs fall away it will essentially be the end of a serious challenge to Labour here, even though it will remain a much less safe seat than the traditional stronghold of Swansea E (which stayed Labour even in 1931 along with all the valleys seats).
I take the point about The Mumbles. However, the Tories are making a comeback in Wales, by comparison with Scotland, and this seat is not totally out of their reach. Admitteldy, it would be a good year for the Tories in which they win, with a considerable overall majority for them UKwide.
On the contrary, the seat surely is out of their reach. They are 14% behind Labour in a year where they were 7.5% ahead of Labour nationally, so they’d need to be 21.5% or so ahead nationally to have any hope of taking the seat. That is not going to happen any time soon.
Emma Lane = Conservative candidate:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=643311449118360
The contest in Uplands ward on Swansea UA yesterday resulted in former Liberal Democrat PPC Peter May winning the seat as an Independent from Labour, with May finishing 118 votes clear of the Labour candidate. Janet Thomas polled 10.4% to finish third ahead of the Conservatives.
Also to be noted with the Uplands by election is that the Greens finished 4th above the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru. I will be the candidate for the Green party in Swansea West (Ashley Wakeling).
Labour hold. 8,000 majority. Conservatives in 2nd.
Geraint Davies isn’t particularly liked locally mainly for his apparent lack of motivation for standing up for local issues (tidal lagoon being one example). However, although Swansea West demographically speaking is rather diverse (in class rather than culture) the areas of higher population you would tend associate as being left leaning.
Honestly, I am traditionally a Labour Party voter but am a swing voter this time around.
Much depends on where the Lib Dem vote share gets spread (I suspect their vote share will plummet with most going to Lab) so would predict a safe Labour hold.
Predicition:
Lab 36% (+1)
Con 26% (+5)
Lib Dem 16% (-13)
UKIP 9% (+7)
Plaid 6% (+2)
Green 5% (+4)
Others 2% (nc)
Just a personal prediction from an International Politics graduate living in the local area from the vibe I’m picking up locally.
Either way, come May 7th Swansea West will not be at the forefront of any headlines I wouldn’t have thought.
I recall someone saying on here that the boundaries of the two Newport seats have hardly changed over the years, have the two Swansea seats been the same or not since they’re older seats? (In the 1983 description of this seat ‘ward no 1’ presumably refers to the present-day Castle ward.)
There are three seats in the City and County of Swansea: East, West and Gower.
LEAVE: 51.5%
REMAIN: 48.5%