South West Surrey

2015 Result:
Conservative: 34199 (59.9%)
Labour: 5415 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 3586 (6.3%)
Green: 3105 (5.4%)
UKIP: 5643 (9.9%)
NHA: 4851 (8.5%)
Others: 320 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 28556 (50%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics: The seat and its predecessors have been represented by the Conservative party since 1910, and has been represented by three cabinet level ministers in a row (former Secretary of State for Employment Maurice MacMillan, former Health Secretary Virginia Bottomley and now Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt). The Liberal Democrats were once a strong force here and in 1997 and 2001 it was a close marginal. Since then the Conservatives have once again built up an robust majority.


Current MP
JEREMY HUNT (Conservative) Born 1966, Godalming. Educated at Charterhouse and Oxford University. Former entrepreneur and English language teacher. First elected as MP for South West Surrey in 2005. Shadow culture secretary 2007-2010. Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2010-2012. Secretary of State for Health since 2012. Hunt was deeply involved in the Leveson inquiry. Hunt was made responsible for the decision on whether to approve the News Corporation takeover of BSkyB and was accused of being too close to News International.
Past Results
2010
Con: 33605 (59%)
Lab: 3419 (6%)
LDem: 17287 (30%)
UKIP: 1486 (3%)
Oth: 1462 (3%)
MAJ: 16318 (28%)
2005*
Con: 26420 (50%)
Lab: 4150 (8%)
LDem: 20709 (40%)
UKIP: 958 (2%)
Oth: 172 (0%)
MAJ: 5711 (11%)
2001
Con: 22462 (45%)
Lab: 4321 (9%)
LDem: 21601 (44%)
UKIP: 1208 (2%)
MAJ: 861 (2%)
1997
Con: 25165 (45%)
Lab: 5333 (9%)
LDem: 22471 (40%)
Oth: 659 (1%)
MAJ: 2694 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JEREMY HUNT (Conservative) See above.
HOWARD JAMES KAYE (Labour)
PATRICK HAVERON (Liberal Democrat)
MARK WEBBER (UKIP)
SUSAN RYLAND (Green)
LOUISE IRVINE (NHA) Born 1957, Paisley. Educated at Harlaw Academy and Aberdeen University. GP.
PAUL ROBINSON (Something New) Businessman.
Links
Comments - 243 Responses on “Surrey South West”
  1. Con – 58
    Lib Dem – 24
    Lab – 8
    UKIP – 8
    Oth – 2

  2. The deposit is paid in advance l believe

  3. The LibDem Parliamentary candidate has been suspended, as its alleged he falsified a nomination paper for a council seat being fought on Thursday also.

  4. Conservative Hold. 21,000 maj

  5. Result:

    Con 59.9%
    UKIP 9.9%
    Lab 9.5%
    NHA 8.5%
    LD 6.3%
    Greens 5.4%
    Something New 0.6%

    6.3% for the LDs is truly appalling. Two elections ago they were on 40%.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000953

  6. Cllr Elliot Nichols has defected from UKIP back to the Tory Group again, here.

  7. I expect last year’s result will be something of an aberration.
    The split in the opposition vote (5 candidates getting 5-10%, but none any higher) is extremely unusual in a safe Tory seat.
    It’s more the sort of result associated with a safe, working class, urban Labour seat, say in Merseyside.
    I can’t think of any other seat which elected a Tory in 2015, and where the second-placed candidate failed to get at least 10% (although it was pretty close in both North East Hampshire and Maidenhead).

    As the rumours are that Jeremy Hunt will be given something else in the next reshuffle, there may not be a National Health Action Party candidate standing here in 2020 to help split the vote.

    I must say, I was impressed by the 8.5% Louise Irvine got here. It was second only to Richard Taylor’s in Wyre Forest.
    Stafford saw the third highest share for them I think (3.5%). No prizes for guessing why voters in that particular constituency might’ve been attracted to a health-focused party.
    I do find it odd that they bothered standing against Harriet Harman though.

  8. This is not a seat that is any way shape or form affected by split oppositions, the Tories are well clear of 50%. This has returned to being the ultra safe Tory seat it always used to be and the time when it was vulnerable has passed similarly to Maidenhead. Obviously Labour and the Greens are never going to get anywhere here, this is not really UKIP territory and the Lib Dems window of opportunity has well and truly closed. Whether the NHA stands or not next time is of course utterly irrelevant to the outcome in this constituency.

  9. How many seats were the LDs 5th in that they came 2nd last time?

    I see here and Liverpool West Derby upto now.

  10. Pepperminttea, you’re correct it won’t make much difference to the ultimate result whether the NHA Party stands here again or not. I meant in the context of such a low vote share for the second placed candidate it may be significant, as (for example) it may enable the Lib Dems to get 15% next time instead of 6%.

  11. Another seat where the LDs were 5th in 2015 but 2nd in 2010 in Barnsley Central – though 5th was an improvement over the intervening by-election.

  12. @Lancs Observer

    Quite a few

    Birmingham Ladywood, , Liverpool Riverside, Salford and Eccles, Edinburgh East, Edinburgh South, Edinburgh North and Leith, Glasgow North, Barnsley Central, Manchester Central, Manchester Gorton, North West Norfolk, Leeds West, Merthyr Tydfil, Swansea East.

    This one was a bit artificial though as the Ld candidate was disowned for falsifying his nomination papers.

    The lib dems would have probably been a distant 2nd with 10-15%if the NHA hadn’t stood and/or that hadn’t happened but now they’ve lost 2nd I wouldn’t automatically assume the LDs will get it back..

  13. If the Lib Dems defeated Virginia Bottomley in either 97 or 01, I suspect it would’ve gone back to the Conservatives in an election or two, similar to what happened in Guildford.

  14. A Brown – many thanks.

    Actually, the LibDems did even worse than I thought in Liverpool West Derby.

    They went from 2nd to 6th! So that must be the record.

  15. Looks like Hunt is considering a run for leadership. Not the best choice for an ‘anyone but Boris’ candidate.

    What’s his standing with party members? He’s surely not too popular with the wider public.

  16. So many errors with his name if he wins. Almost worth supporting him just for that.

    Seriously, though, it’s either Johnson or May, no?

  17. No hope. Not because he is particularly disliked by Tories but he just has very little going for him in a leadership bid – disliked by public, poor negotiating record (doctors’ strike mess), hard to imagine him getting good deal from Brussels, no appeal whatsoever to Brexiteers, no backstory (Charterhouse and Oxford, MP for Godalming).

  18. Hunt considering a Leadership move reminded me of a combination of Tim Yeo or Ancram trying a decade ago.

    A hate figure and out of touch one, both with a strange view of their own ability.

  19. There are and were of course also figures (Ann W) who were popular with members but couldn’t get MPs to nominate them.

  20. Guido have started a spreadsheet of who is supporting who – https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19mKbV0UnIbX_lbiinKiquP0ghiFpsMl0owUO6_TJyzI/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=0

    Early days but signs looking good for Boris for me. May surely needs a senior Brexit supporter to back her but I’m not sure who that will be if Gove is running Boris’s campaign, Leadsom may be running herself (or else will surely back Boris) and Priti Patel is backing Boris.

  21. Maxim- no offence, but you predicted completely the wrong result for the EU referendum (as I did, but I’m not crowing about my prediction abilities). It doesn’t matter how close it was. Predicting that the Tories would come a pretty miserable, very distant second in Scotland didn’t take any great foresight…I think most of the board predicted that.

    Credit for the GE2015 result though.

    I do find this boards obsession with predictions a bit odd. A lot of predicting is wishful thinking/ things you’d like to happen anyway. Perhaps I’m not as geeky as I thought lol.

  22. John Baron entering the leadership race as candidate of the right apparently. Guess he’ll get the votes of Bone, Davies, Hollobone, Nuttall, Chope etc.

  23. Baron is an interesting name. He is someone who has consistently opposed foreign interventions that were put to a vote in Commons. He was the sole Tory MP to oppose the action in Libya.

  24. I can’t see Baron getting the nominations.

    He really is a loner and not of the Nuttall/Percy/Davies/Crouch/Davis/Davis wing really. The Cornerstone group (of 35 I think) would probably back Fox or Brady if either stand. I assume as chairman of the 1922 he’d have to announce that first though and step aside, rather than overseeing the noms on Wed and Thur.

  25. Have seen it said Leadsom might back May if offered a good job (IE Chancellor).

  26. I think Theresa needs that backing… if I were her team I’d be working on that very hard (there is no obvious alternative Chancellor so why not?)

  27. ConHome poll of 1,315 members is more accurate:

    May 29%
    Johnson 28%
    Leadsom 14%
    Fox 13%
    Crab 9%
    Raab 2%

    The Party Board has also recommended putting the result back a week to 9th September, due to members being on holiday in August.

  28. There are rumours that Crabb will be running on a joint ticket with Sajid Javid as his proposed Chancellor.

  29. Yes, I imagine May, Boris & Fox would all like a Leadsom endorsement. She’s popular amongst MPs, unlike them.

  30. I think that’s most likely. Vote Leave became a team during the course of the campaign and I expect they will largely stick together (despite Fox and Baron looking like launching rival Brexit bids).

  31. I suspect some in safe seats end up thinking they’re more popular than they are and Hunt has that.

    Major was still dining out on his for years afterwards. His one true claim, of course, was having gained the most votes ever (over 14m) in 1992.

    That is until over 17m voted Leave 😉

  32. Hunt is a joke candidate.

    May won’t win – her Euroscepticism is fake, just look at her decision to opt back into EU justice and home affairs measures, without a referendum.

  33. I’m pretty sure Hunt doesn’t expect to get anywahere. He’s just laying down a marker saying ‘Hello, I’m here’.
    Probably hoping it’ll reserve a seat for him in the successful candidate’s cabinet.

    Baron is a far weirder candidacy than Hunt. Sort of the Conservative equivalent of Corbyn.

  34. Yes, Baron also a joke candidate

  35. How is Baron like a Tory version of Corbyn? Surely it’s Bone or Dorries who’s more like that.

  36. Baron is not a direct equivalent – given Corbyn was the most rebellious Labour MP in terms of number of rebellions against the whip the direct equivalent would be Philip Davies. But he’s not far off. Fortunately the Tory system means no candidate like that can be put to the members (even if they were I don’t sense any mood among the members for that kind of candidate anyway).

  37. Hunt apparently sacked.

  38. No big shock here. It’s hard to characterise his tenure at Health as a success. I thought he might be offered a more lowly Cabinet job first though.

  39. She’s *really* clearing house. Clean break from the Cameron years.

  40. BBC reporting Hunt is remaning in the cabinet in a new post.

  41. I’d always thought Hunt was quite a loyal minister, whatever his secret ambitions may or may not be.

    He’s also not been given the easiest of briefs in the past to be fair, and he’s taken on the roles ‘on the chin’ and got on with it with a smile – whatever you think of his actual performance at times.

  42. Kuenssberg now reporting that Hunt is to stay at Health. Would be surprising if so – a new face at the DoH might be what is needed to help resolve the standoff with junior doctors.

  43. Hunt stays.

  44. If your had been told 24 hours ago that only 4 cabinet ministers would be staying put (and of course one of those is David Mundell!) you wouldn’t have thought Hunt would be among them.

    Maybe nobody wanted to clear up the mess he’d left?

  45. Poll Troll- well he could be a useful lightning conductor.

  46. I wonder what actually happened here. A well placed source obviously leaked that he was about to get the boot…I wonder what occurred subsequently. He certainly looked extremely relieved earlier.

  47. If Jeremy Hunt is still the Health Secretary of course. It appears at the moment he’s only still in the job because nobody else wants his poisoned chalice.

  48. Apparently county council are going to put council tax at 15% to referendum

  49. I would expect a North Korean level No vote to that.

    Surrey is a very interesting Tory council, constantly at loggerheads with the government from the left.

  50. I heard a Surrey councillor on the radio today suggesting he would interpret a rejection of council tax increase as voters wanting social care to be paid for out of general taxation.

    Hmm. Most people in Surrey would be worse off in that scenario as they would be paying for their own care and subsidising poorer regions. In other words, people voting against a tax rise because they want a bigger tax rise. It’s like the “Miliband wasn’t left-wing enough so people voted for the Tories” argument.

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